Price is right

chawson

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The market shift and our cap situation makes it a little less of a slam dunk, but I still want him to stay. A 2020 rotation of EdRod and whomever of Scherff/Mata/Houck/Groome might pan out and become a #4 seems pretty rough.

I could see DD in on Cole, Sale, Porcello and Bumgarner, but the list of free agent starters the next two offseasons is brutal, and I’m not sure we can even show up in the SP market this coming offseason.
 

timlinin8th

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That's where I am too, but only because of health concerns.
Opt out for me too, but not just because of health/injury concerns - the guy is going to be 33 by season’s end, the odds are really high that despite pitching awesome right now (he is) he will decline heading towards the end of this contract. That money is better spent elsewhere (Sale, younger pitchers hitting FA, etc).
 

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Opt out for me too, but not just because of health/injury concerns - the guy is going to be 33 by season’s end, the odds are really high that despite pitching awesome right now (he is) he will decline heading towards the end of this contract. That money is better spent elsewhere (Sale, younger pitchers hitting FA, etc).
I'm curious who these pitchers are. Sure, we'd all like someone pitching as well as Price, but who is younger and wants to come to the Sox, but how many of these guys exist? Someone very good has to take his spot if he goes.
 

grimshaw

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I'd lean opt out. He has a lot of innings on his arm already and will be 33 in August. It's not impossible that he earns the back end of his contract, but I don't think there is a very good chance.
 

chawson

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Those wanting Price to opt out should suggest what the Sox 2020 rotation is without him.

Keep in mind that we likely can’t add to the rotation this offseason and have no trade chips beyond the major league roster. So we’re pretty much dealing with 2020 free agents and the long odds that any of Beeks/Shawaryn/Johnson can stick.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Those wanting Price to opt out should suggest what the Sox 2020 rotation is without him.

Keep in mind that we likely can’t add to the rotation this offseason and have no trade chips beyond the major league roster. So we’re pretty much dealing with 2020 free agents and the long odds that any of Beeks/Shawaryn/Johnson can stick.
If, and it’s a big if, we can retain Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Wright, then Price is more of a luxury than a necessity. But a lot can change in two years.

I’d lean towards having Price opt out. His upside is difficult and expensive to replace, but I feel like there’s a lingering sense of doom with his pitching arm. He’s already missed significant time, and there’s been at least a couple of times it seemed like “shit, here comes the TJS announcement”.

Of course, I’d sign up for what he’s given us so far this season, but it’s risky, and I wouldn’t want to keep him if the cost is Sale or Mookie leaving town.
 

chawson

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If, and it’s a big if, we can retain Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Wright, then Price is more of a luxury than a necessity. But a lot can change in two years.

I’d lean towards having Price opt out. His upside is difficult and expensive to replace, but I feel like there’s a lingering sense of doom with his pitching arm. He’s already missed significant time, and there’s been at least a couple of times it seemed like “shit, here comes the TJS announcement”.

Of course, I’d sign up for what he’s given us so far this season, but it’s risky, and I wouldn’t want to keep him if the cost is Sale or Mookie leaving town.
That’s an interesting question, and I don’t know the answer. Say Porcello stays exactly as good as he is now until he hits FA — essentially a 4.5 win pitcher. He probably gets a pretty monstrous contract of his own, doesn’t he? (If he reverts to 2017 level, we don’t want him.)

I’m not sure I’d rather pay Porcello (something like) 5/$100 than Price at 4/$127, even factoring age. Porcello’s skillset doesn’t seem to be the sort that plays well at age 32-33 in modern baseball.
 

timlinin8th

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Someone very good has to take his spot if he goes.
See I don’t really think that - having two 30M+ pitchers on a staff is a huge luxury, like Hank Scorpio says, and that is what it is going to take to retain Sale. I don’t want to keep Price if the cost is losing Sale or Mookie, especially when its unlikely as Price’s contract progresses he is unlikely to earn its value.

I think it becomes more likely that the Sox retain Pomeranz this offseason if Price opts out, and they should be able to get him for probably the same number of years still due to Price for a fraction of the cost. A rotation of Sale-Porcello-Erod-Pom-Wright is a decent rotation even if it is a step down from this season.
 

chawson

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See I don’t really think that - having two 30M+ pitchers on a staff is a huge luxury, like Hank Scorpio says, and that is what it is going to take to retain Sale. I don’t want to keep Price if the cost is losing Sale or Mookie, especially when its unlikely as Price’s contract progresses he is unlikely to earn its value.

I think it becomes more likely that the Sox retain Pomeranz this offseason if Price opts out, and they should be able to get him for probably the same number of years still due to Price for a fraction of the cost. A rotation of Sale-Porcello-Erod-Pom-Wright is a decent rotation even if it is a step down from this season.
You sure we’ll be able to get Pom at four years? Bidding war could be intense, might have to go six.
 

sean1562

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For Drew Pomeranz? He would have to come back from the DL and be lights out all season to even approach that. Who do you think is giving Drew Pomeranz a 6 year deal? 4 would be the max I would want the Sox to sign him for, and honestly, would not be upset if they decided to move on all together. Steven Wright is a 5th starter in MLB and deserves the opportunity to be that for the Sox moving forward.

David Price could win the AL Cy Young and he still wouldnt opt out. Nobody is giving him more than what he already has. He is going to be on this team through 2022

edit: im an idiot
 
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MikeM

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Which basically started as soon as people were even entertaining the thought that there was actually a choice to be made there though, right?

Price's 4/$127m left is more then Darvish got last winter over 6, and craps all over Arrieta's deal in terms of guaranteed money. Both who are slightly younger to boot and were forced to wait out the entire winter before even seeing that money materialize. No way Price or his agent (and I'm even including the possibility he goes on to fire his current one and hires Boras) look at last year's market trend and form the reasonable conclusion that opting out on that 3 year track record is anything short of bar setting stupid.

Staying healthy and pitching well on the year isn't moving the needle enough. Heck, Price could probably go full blown CY Young the rest of the way and still be looking at a best case scenario of Arrieta type money. There just doesn't appear to be as many GMs out there anymore who are paying out on last season's production by itself value, and while willing to completely ignore advanced age decline probabilities.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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When does Price have to announce whether he will opt-in or opt-out? Obviously the Sox can't be just kept hanging on and letting Pomeranz slip away because of it.

I'm 99% certain he'll opt-in no matter if he gets the CYA this season or not. All the reasons that people want him to opt-out are exactly the reasons why he'll opt-in. He's not getting anything more than what he has coming to him with that option. I'm absolutely sure also that Pom will likely be offered a QA, along with Kimbrell (assuming that Pom actually pitches half-way decently the rest of the season after he returns). Those savings, along with Hanley's $19M are significant enough to offer Sale and Mookie long term deals around $30M each.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Pretty sure he has to opt-out within a certain amount of time after the end of the season, same as when the team has a player option, they have to exercise it more or less first thing in the off-season. Both sides have to allow for the other to move on if the choice is to separate.
 

chawson

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I think we underestimate the difficulty the FO faces in attracting starting pitchers, and the additional challenge of accurately predicting those who have the right combination of stuff and makeup to succeed here.

Over the last 15 years, the full sum of free agent starting pitchers they've signed have been Fister, Price, Masterson, Lackey, Dempster, Cook, Penny, Smoltz, Byrd, Colon, Matsuzaka, Wells, Clement, Wade Miller and John Burkett. Most of those are scrap heap/reclamation/one-year contracts (that mostly didn't work), and while cases might be be made for Dice-K and Lackey, the entire list has turned out pretty poorly.

In fact, with his strong start this year, you could make an argument that David Price has been the most successful free agent starting pitcher the Red Sox have signed this century. For those who don't hate this method of evaluation, we've paid him $73.52 million, and he's been "worth" $61.8 million (according to Fangraphs).

We can't talk about replacing him in a vacuum. The folks saying that the market shift has changed the optics on his contract aren't wrong, but there are no good bets to replace his production available, and we're unlikely to attract them to Boston without overbidding. By 2020, it's a long shot that one of the Sox' young, fringe-prospect starters can step in, the free agent market is full of challenges and landmines, and we don't (yet) have the hitting prospect trade chips to acquire a starter—which is clearly their preferred method.
 

Pitt the Elder

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For those that know more about this than I do, health willing (a big if), how does a pitcher with Price's reportoire age as his stuff declines? When he's not suffering from carpel tunnel syndrome, Price seems like the kind of pitcher that can change speeds, mix his pitches, and hit his spots. If and when he inevitabli loses a couple MPH on his fastball, what are the odds that he remains a reasonably effective pitcher?
 

grimshaw

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For those that know more about this than I do, health willing (a big if), how does a pitcher with Price's reportoire age as his stuff declines? When he's not suffering from carpel tunnel syndrome, Price seems like the kind of pitcher that can change speeds, mix his pitches, and hit his spots. If and when he inevitabli loses a couple MPH on his fastball, what are the odds that he remains a reasonably effective pitcher?
Probably more valuable to just look at a big list of guys at his point in their careers.

He'll need to average very roughly 3.75 fWAR per season to "earn" his contract, which equates to 15 total.
Here is a list of pitchers since 1980 and what they did in their age 34-37 season.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1980&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=34,37&filter=&players=

Out of the above crew, his closest comps who were successful at his age are probably Chuck Finley, Andy Pettitte, Al Leiter and Kenny Rogers. I don't recall all of their repertoires perfectly off the top of my head, but he obviously isn't Randy Johnson or Jamie Moyer.

11 out of 147 (7.5%) earned 15 fWAR or more and 60 of 147 (41%) earned at least half that
The odds aren't with him, but he did win a Cy Young for a reason. Maybe he can get by with diminishing stuff as long as his command stays.
 

chawson

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Probably more valuable to just look at a big list of guys at his point in their careers.

He'll need to average very roughly 3.75 fWAR per season to "earn" his contract, which equates to 15 total.
Here is a list of pitchers since 1980 and what they did in their age 34-37 season.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1980&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=34,37&filter=&players=

Out of the above crew, his closest comps who were successful at his age are probably Chuck Finley, Andy Pettitte, Al Leiter and Kenny Rogers. I don't recall all of their repertoires perfectly off the top of my head, but he obviously isn't Randy Johnson or Jamie Moyer.

11 out of 147 (7.5%) earned 15 fWAR or more and 60 of 147 (41%) earned at least half that
The odds aren't with him, but he did win a Cy Young for a reason. Maybe he can get by with diminishing stuff as long as his command stays.
Useful stuff here. Retaining command (and avoiding injury) seems key, and Price (2.34 career BB/9) compares favorably to those you mention.

Price's repertoire (4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter, change, occasional curve) is closer to Pettitte's than any of those other guys (though Pettitte threw a curve more often). Chuck Finley's career predates a lot of available statistics, but his velocity is probably closer to Price's than any of those you mention above besides RJ. Finley had a signature splitter that Price doesn't; on the other hand, Finley had a higher walk rate. Price's career walk rate (2.34/9) is comparable to Ted Lilly's, but Price throws about 4 mph harder.

So yeah, some combination of Pettitte, Lilly, and Finley if he stays healthy. In other words, a 2.5-3 win pitcher.
 

chrisfont9

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Useful stuff here. Retaining command (and avoiding injury) seems key, and Price (2.34 career BB/9) compares favorably to those you mention.

Price's repertoire (4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter, change, occasional curve) is closer to Pettitte's than any of those other guys (though Pettitte threw a curve more often). Chuck Finley's career predates a lot of available statistics, but his velocity is probably closer to Price's than any of those you mention above besides RJ. Finley had a signature splitter that Price doesn't; on the other hand, Finley had a higher walk rate. Price's career walk rate (2.34/9) is comparable to Ted Lilly's, but Price throws about 4 mph harder.

So yeah, some combination of Pettitte, Lilly, and Finley if he stays healthy. In other words, a 2.5-3 win pitcher.
I wonder if Price's walk rate holds as he ages, or whether he has to nibble more. So much of this discussion is founded in pure speculation/projection, naturally. I don't remember much about Finley or Lilly, but Finley's walk rate is double that of Price so far, so maybe Pettitte is the best comp, with the walk rate just creeping up a bit? I'm fine with him opting in, my guess is he'll be worth at least half of what he's paid, but if he opts out, we should be done with him.
 

nvalvo

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I'm fine with him opting in, my guess is he'll be worth at least half of what he's paid, but if he opts out, we should be done with him.
This is smart. If he opts out, put his money towards extensions for Sale, Betts and Benintendi, and call it a day.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
it is hard to be likeable as a red sox while performing as bad as he does against the yankees, while talking as much shit as he does. he needs to just shut his mouth and be the #4 guy that he is now. it is just annoying
It sucks that he's getting whacked by our chief rival, but that has nothing to do with the appropriateness of him speaking his mind on whatever he chooses to. I expect this stuff on WEEI, not here.
 

DeadlySplitter

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You can't deny he's been literally worst starter in the league level against, what this year is, our biggest roadblock to our WS chances. it's becoming more than a small sample and is a huge knock on his value, even when he's generally solid the rest of the time.

put this way, we're 4-5 against the Yankees, and Price gave us zero chance to win in two of those games.

Pete Abraham‏Verified account @PeteAbe 4m4 minutes ago
Price has an 8.43 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in nine starts against the Yankees since joining the Sox and has allowed 13 home runs in 47 innings. He has a 10.44 ERA in five starts at Yankee Stadium with the Sox with 10 home runs over 25 innings.

At least the HRs aren't as bad at Fenway.
 

jon abbey

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put this way, we're 4-5 against the Yankees, and Price gave us zero chance to win in two of those games.
He impacted the middle series too, when he couldn't pitch at the last minute yet somehow was back in there a few days later.
 

Sampo Gida

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You have to wonder if maybe the Yankees have picked up on him tipping pitches. They just seem very comfortable up there at the plate. Granted they are a good hitting team but he was awful against them in 2016 as well when he made 5 of his 9 Red Sox starts against them

He has a 3.5 ERA against everyone else in his Red sox career and 8.4 ERA against the Yankees
 
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Hawk68

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Here is the reality. David price is by bWAR ~90% of the pitcher he was for Tampa. He is paid $30M, much more than he is worth. He is highly unlikely to opt out.

I think we are stuck with a pitcher I would rather not have in a big game.
 

grimshaw

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It's funny - he got the most heat his first season solely about his pitching (not about media stuff) when he actually earned his contract.

From a contract standpoint since then, he is on pace to earn less than half of it in both 2017 and 2018.
I realize it was mostly injury last year when his peripherals were better, but his stuff isn't the same and he is having the worst season of his career. Yes it's mostly just the Yankees, but If he is non competitive against them, he is substantially less valuable than his WAR reflects. It doesn't give "swing games" extra weight.

I don't know what his baseline is. Probably not this low, but stuff and health generally don't get better with age. Especially when you have logged this many innings.
 
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Lose Remerswaal

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We might have been projecting the wrong SP to move to the bullpen in the postseason. And that's ok, if Price can be lights out in relief and we have 4 other guys we can count on to start.

This is your moment, Drew Pomeranz.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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This is stilll a little overreactionary to me. Granted... something is clearly wrong with him when he pitches against the Yankees and he really needs to sit down with the pitching staff to look to see if he is doing something different. He's been a good pitcher so far this season... a worthy "no.2". No, he's not worth $30M but he's been very good against non-Yankee teams. So that's means it's something that can be fixed... he's not injured against the Yankees.
I still like the guy and don't see this as a chance for Pomeranz to bump him to the bullpen. He's staying in the damned rotation and needs to get this little kink worked out
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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No question it is too soon to relegate him to the 'pen, but it is within the realm of possibility
I think it's only in the realm of possibility if he starts having more games like last night against teams other than the Yankees. If he finishes the year pitching the way he has thus far (shit against the Yankees, good against everyone else), there's no way they won't put him in the post-season rotation. Not unless Pomeranz comes back and is so absolutely lights out that he forces his way into a rotation spot while Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez are equally lights out. And frankly, if that happens, the Sox will have won the division by so many games that we'll be rejoicing about a rotation so good that the pitcher with the 3.5 ERA was forced to the pen for the playoffs.
 

JimD

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Well, that could not have gone any worse last night, other than line-drive rockets maybe taking out Betts and Martinez in the field or something.

Do teams ever scout themselves? If the Red Sox aren't doing this already then they should, because either Price has been tipping pitches or the Yankees learned his pitch sequences enough to feel pretty damned comfortable at the plate last night, one day after Chris Sale made them look foolish. Major fail not only by Price but by LeVangie, Cora and the staff.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Something to consider, and I don't mean this to come off as defending Price as much as it might appear, but the Yankees have been absolutely murdering LHP this year (8 wins in their last 9 games against lefty starters). Maybe, just maybe, it isn't 100% what Price was doing (or not doing) so much as that really, really good lineup just likes to tee off on lefties. Sure, Sale made them look foolish on Saturday, but perhaps that says something about how good he is rather than how poor the rest are. He comes in from a different angle than the conventional lefty, and with heavier stuff, so he might not be comparable.

Not saying Price can't "fix" whatever it is that makes the Yankees his kryptonite, but I'm not so sure what happened last night should be put totally on his (and the Red Sox staff's) shoulders.
 

DanoooME

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I think it's only in the realm of possibility if he starts having more games like last night against teams other than the Yankees. If he finishes the year pitching the way he has thus far (shit against the Yankees, good against everyone else), there's no way they won't put him in the post-season rotation. Not unless Pomeranz comes back and is so absolutely lights out that he forces his way into a rotation spot while Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez are equally lights out. And frankly, if that happens, the Sox will have won the division by so many games that we'll be rejoicing about a rotation so good that the pitcher with the 3.5 ERA was forced to the pen for the playoffs.
And let's see how he does against the Astros and Indians, 2 other likely playoff teams with top offenses. If the pattern continues, then it's time to worry. It's really time to worry if he gets clobbered by KC next. For now, I would treat this as a bump in the road until further data becomes available.

fake edit: He did throw a QS at Houston a month ago.
 

BaseballJones

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Something to consider, and I don't mean this to come off as defending Price as much as it might appear, but the Yankees have been absolutely murdering LHP this year (8 wins in their last 9 games against lefty starters). Maybe, just maybe, it isn't 100% what Price was doing (or not doing) so much as that really, really good lineup just likes to tee off on lefties. Sure, Sale made them look foolish on Saturday, but perhaps that says something about how good he is rather than how poor the rest are. He comes in from a different angle than the conventional lefty, and with heavier stuff, so he might not be comparable.

Not saying Price can't "fix" whatever it is that makes the Yankees his kryptonite, but I'm not so sure what happened last night should be put totally on his (and the Red Sox staff's) shoulders.
I said this in the game thread and someone had a pretty sarcastic (and inaccurate) reply. The homers Price gave up to Torres and Hicks were both on like 92 mph fastballs at the knees on the inside corner. Torres hit his 380 feet to RF and Hicks hit his 373 to RF. Both would have been long fly outs in Fenway. Not saying they weren't hit hard, because they obviously were. But both would have been long outs in Fenway.

Where is Price supposed to throw his fastball against right-handed hitters in Yankee Stadium if not down and in? And how is that pitch supposed to be driven out to *right field*? I can see them yanking them down the LF line, but to hit them out to RF? That's pretty amazing hitting actually. Pitch inside to righties in Yankee Stadium and use the big part of the park to your advantage. But that they hit those out to RF was just great hitting.

That doesn't mean that Price was doing just great. He made plenty of horrible pitches and the Yankees hit tons of balls hard. But on those two pitches (which accounted for five runs right there), he made quality pitches that just got hit.

Someone else upthread said that Price might be where CC was a few years ago and that may be accurate. Maybe Price needs to reinvent himself at this point as a crafty lefty (that's surely what CC is right now) that can, on occasion, hump it up to 94. He needs a better change and a sharper curve, and maybe even a secondary curve that he throws in the mid 70s to totally throw hitters off balance with a major change of speed. Right now, against quality lineups, it's a struggle for him unless his control is pinpoint.

Or maybe it's just he has NY-phobia.

2018 Price
vs NYY: 4.1 ip, 12 h, 12 r, 12 er, 2 bb, 4 k, 24.92 era, 3.69 whip, 8.3 k/9
vs rest: 92.1 ip, 77 h, 37 r, 34 er, 31 bb, 88 k, 3.31 era, 1.17 whip, 8.6 k/9
 

soxeast

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imo not even near a question. There is no way he should be even considered to be bumped to the bullpen. He got wiped out. It happens. He's a quality pitcher.
 

AB in DC

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I said this in the game thread and someone had a pretty sarcastic (and inaccurate) reply. The homers Price gave up to Torres and Hicks were both on like 92 mph fastballs at the knees on the inside corner. Torres hit his 380 feet to RF and Hicks hit his 373 to RF. Both would have been long fly outs in Fenway. Not saying they weren't hit hard, because they obviously were. But both would have been long outs in Fenway.

Where is Price supposed to throw his fastball against right-handed hitters in Yankee Stadium if not down and in? And how is that pitch supposed to be driven out to *right field*? I can see them yanking them down the LF line, but to hit them out to RF? That's pretty amazing hitting actually. Pitch inside to righties in Yankee Stadium and use the big part of the park to your advantage. But that they hit those out to RF was just great hitting.
I mean that's the big question , and you're the only one here who seems to be addressing it. What, exactly, is Price doing wrong? Is he missing his spots? Is he not getting the motion he's had in other games? Velocity?
 

BaseballJones

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I mean that's the big question , and you're the only one here who seems to be addressing it. What, exactly, is Price doing wrong? Is he missing his spots? Is he not getting the motion he's had in other games? Velocity?
Well some of it is that he doesn't have the velocity that he once did. He used to sit 95-96. Now he sits 90-91. And his offspeed stuff has never been dynamic. He definitely missed some spots last night and against that team he has to be pinpoint. Which he's capable of being. I mentioned the two pitches to Torres and Hicks, but he threw some meatballs in there as well.

One reason he is better in relief is that his velocity is back up to 95+, and that allows him to get away with being a little less precise.
 
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This is just an observation. Sale is one of the fastest working pitchers, and they were helpless against him. Price is one of the slowest, perhaps giving a killer lineup like the Yankees more time to think works in their favor.
 

grimshaw

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Something to consider, and I don't mean this to come off as defending Price as much as it might appear, but the Yankees have been absolutely murdering LHP this year (8 wins in their last 9 games against lefty starters). Maybe, just maybe, it isn't 100% what Price was doing (or not doing) so much as that really, really good lineup just likes to tee off on lefties.
I don't know - I mean Drew Pomeranz had a 6 inning 2 run game against them, and Sale has done it twice now. The Yanks are obviously ridiculous against lefties, but they were also down Gary Sanchez who has extirpated Price's pitching. I just think he either wasn't getting enough separation between his fastball and off speed, or as a few others have suggested, he is pitch tipping.

This is supposedly a top 10 pitcher, so while he isn't Sale, he should be able to get through 5 innings without giving up 4 runs or more.

Cheap home runs or not, one else is getting bombed like he is.
 

BaseballJones

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Some thoughts on Price and the signing, going back in time, because it's really, really frustrating.

When they signed Price, he was coming off his 29-year old season, a year in which he finished 2nd in the Cy Young award voting in the AL. He spent the vast majority of his career in the AL East. From 2010-2015 he averaged 217 innings per season - a total workhorse. Nary an injury issue, mainly due to his very smooth and sure mechanics. His era numbers those six years: 2.72, 3.49, 2.56, 3.33, 3.26, and 2.45. 5-time all star. 4 times in the top 6 of the CYA race. Twice finishing 2nd and once winning it. He was even relatively solid against the Yankees, going 13-8 with a 4.18 era and 8.0 k/9 over his career against them. Not CYA numbers, but not too bad.

In other words, there was absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that Price would be anything but excellent, at least for the first part of his contract. None. Literally none. He had already performed at a very high level in the division. Had pitched well for teams in tight pennant races. And had just come off a great late season push with Toronto in 2015, going 2-0 against the Yankees in September, with a 1.50 era, 0.67 whip, and 10.5 k/9 against them. So in the pressure of a playoff race, he twice completely extinguished the Yankees in September the season just before Boston signed him.

In 2015, he was sitting 94-96, with a max velocity of 99. So he could really bring it. There was nothing whatsoever to worry about. When you think about investing money in a pitcher you ask:

- Is he durable? Check.
- Is he comfortable and has he had success in the AL East? Check.
- Has he done it in a playoff race? Check.
- Has he performed well against NY? Check.
- Is he a stud (i.e., a top performer overall)? Check.

There was no reason at all, really, to think that he wouldn't be fantastic. And yet.... it's like...holy crap this is NOT the same guy. At all. his most successful season with Boston was 2017, where his numbers look like the normal Price, but of course he was seriously injured and only able to pitch 74.2 innings.

So this is a major major mystery. I think losing velocity is a huge part of it. How much is between his ears? How much is just skill decline? How much is the accumulation of so many innings wearing him down?
 

Green Monster

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2000
2,277
CT
http://chiropractor-sioux-city.com/conditions-treated/elbow-wrist-and-hand-pain/carpal-tunnel-mistakenly-diagnosed-thoracic-syndrome-sioux-city/
"It is not uncommon for a person to initially believe they have carpal tunnel syndrome because of the information provided to the public through news reports and other media. However, the location of symptoms in the little and ring fingers should help a patient realize that they are experiencing a different injury and need a different type of treatment."

http://chiropractichandandfootclinics.com/repetitive-strain-injuries-thoracic-outlet-syndrome-is-commonly-misdiagnosed-as-carpal-tunnel-syndrome/
"A common condition that causes numbness or tingling sensations in the hand is known as Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS). The condition is severely overlooked by many health care practitioners, which may lead to misdiagnosis...."

With the return of Thornburg I was reading a little about Thoractic Outlet Syndrome and stumbled across this. It was news to me, hopefully TOS isn't in Price's future
 
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Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
27,105
Newton
Some thoughts on Price and the signing, going back in time, because it's really, really frustrating.

When they signed Price, he was coming off his 29-year old season, a year in which he finished 2nd in the Cy Young award voting in the AL. He spent the vast majority of his career in the AL East. From 2010-2015 he averaged 217 innings per season - a total workhorse. Nary an injury issue, mainly due to his very smooth and sure mechanics. His era numbers those six years: 2.72, 3.49, 2.56, 3.33, 3.26, and 2.45. 5-time all star. 4 times in the top 6 of the CYA race. Twice finishing 2nd and once winning it. He was even relatively solid against the Yankees, going 13-8 with a 4.18 era and 8.0 k/9 over his career against them. Not CYA numbers, but not too bad.

In other words, there was absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that Price would be anything but excellent, at least for the first part of his contract. None. Literally none. He had already performed at a very high level in the division. Had pitched well for teams in tight pennant races. And had just come off a great late season push with Toronto in 2015, going 2-0 against the Yankees in September, with a 1.50 era, 0.67 whip, and 10.5 k/9 against them. So in the pressure of a playoff race, he twice completely extinguished the Yankees in September the season just before Boston signed him.

In 2015, he was sitting 94-96, with a max velocity of 99. So he could really bring it. There was nothing whatsoever to worry about. When you think about investing money in a pitcher you ask:

- Is he durable? Check.
- Is he comfortable and has he had success in the AL East? Check.
- Has he done it in a playoff race? Check.
- Has he performed well against NY? Check.
- Is he a stud (i.e., a top performer overall)? Check.

There was no reason at all, really, to think that he wouldn't be fantastic. And yet.... it's like...holy crap this is NOT the same guy. At all. his most successful season with Boston was 2017, where his numbers look like the normal Price, but of course he was seriously injured and only able to pitch 74.2 innings.

So this is a major major mystery. I think losing velocity is a huge part of it. How much is between his ears? How much is just skill decline? How much is the accumulation of so many innings wearing him down?
Good post. I would add: he wasn’t some unknown entity. Dombrowski knew Price from Detroit. The team paid full price for him on the open market in a year they needed SP. But they also had firsthand experience with him.

I dunno. His struggles are kind of hard to understand. Maybe it is velocity. That said, he has pitched pretty well this year beyond the Yankees. Up until a few days ago there were even people here hoping he might opt out. So let’s see how the rest of the year plays out.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,460
Good post. I would add: he wasn’t some unknown entity. Dombrowski knew Price from Detroit. The team paid full price for him on the open market in a year they needed SP. But they also had firsthand experience with him.

I dunno. His struggles are kind of hard to understand. Maybe it is velocity. That said, he has pitched pretty well this year beyond the Yankees. Up until a few days ago there were even people here hoping he might opt out. So let’s see how the rest of the year plays out.
I seriously think he has got some sort of "Yankee" problem. I hate to think it... but in this rare case, I believe either the Yankees have some insider info on him, they see some pitch tipping that other teams don't... or... Price just gets nervous when he faces them.

The best thing to do is to keep sending him out there as a Starting Pitcher when he's scheduled to face them. No shuffling the rotation to keep them apart.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
There is almost zero chance Price opts out. With his elbow always going to be questionable, teams would not be giving more than 3 years and with the decline in his performance he’s not even a $20 million pitcher anymore.

It would be fantastic if he was rich enough and unhappy enough to opt out even given that financial reality. I hope he continues to see legitimate questions from the press and legitimate disappointment from fans as mountains rather than molehills.

Him opting out would be at most a minor downgrade in the rotation, even with just the in-house options right now. Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and then Wright, Johnson, Beeks, and Velazquez battle for the 4th and 5th slots and provide depth. Plus they could still take his $31 million per year and spend less than half on a good 3rd starter like Lance Lynn if they wanted more certainty.

But alas, we’re stuck with him, and his inability to pitch well when it matters makes him a 4th starter at best.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
There is almost zero chance Price opts out. With his elbow always going to be questionable, teams would not be giving more than 3 years and with the decline in his performance he’s not even a $20 million pitcher anymore.

It would be fantastic if he was rich enough and unhappy enough to opt out even given that financial reality. I hope he continues to see legitimate questions from the press and legitimate disappointment from fans as mountains rather than molehills.

Him opting out would be at most a minor downgrade in the rotation, even with just the in-house options right now. Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and then Wright, Johnson, Beeks, and Velazquez battle for the 4th and 5th slots and provide depth. Plus they could still take his $31 million per year and spend less than half on a good 3rd starter like Lance Lynn if they wanted more certainty.

But alas, we’re stuck with him, and his inability to pitch well when it matters makes him a 4th starter at best.
A good 3rd starter like Lance Lynn for more certainty? The dude who has an ERA of 5.49 and a WHIP of 1.68 this season, his first in the AL?