Price "promises" not to exercise opt out

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
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Aug 15, 2006
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Is it really? So confidence plays no role? Adjusting to a new team, a new city, a new park, can't possibly throw a guy off his game even though he's still working as hard as ever? And it's not possible for some guys to have a kind of personality that bounces back and recovers confidence in that situation less easily than others? In short, it's not possible for a player to give too much of a shit for his own good, and his teammates'?

Mind you, I have no idea whether the above is any closer to the truth about what happened to Carl Crawford in 2011 than "he didn't give a shit". But I feel pretty sure that makes two of us.



Are you really saying that whenever teams (or players) underperform it must be because they don't give a shit? Because it seems like you are.
You give someone a year for that adjustment. Crawford got hurt and came back and just looked disinterested. Maybe he wasn't and I'm looking at it through the lenses of how people viewed Drew when he was in Boston. Less than a year after he signs the stories started to come out that he regretted his decision and wanted to go to the Angels etc...

It doesn't seem like he was ever comfortable with being here. Mind you maybe the assessment was a little strong and we can agree to disagree on what happened with Crawford but the point is that he completely fell off a cliff and was apart of the two most embarrassing Sox teams of the century and 2001-2002 was pretty bad too.
 

simplicio

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I know the idea of "clutch" is not well embraced by the statistically minded but it does exist. Some people thrive under pressure and bright lights of the postseason, some do not. At a certain point things can no longer be chalked up to SSS

See: Kershaw, Clayton; Ortiz, David
I suggest you take another look at the postseason stats from Kershaw and Ortiz - I think you'll find them less consistent than you imagine.
 

lexrageorge

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I think sometimes people forget how awful Crawford was in Boston. His first season, his K rate spiked, his walk rate declined, and even when he (rarely) got on base he couldn't steal bases without getting caught (25% CS rate). Yes, players do sometimes need an adjustment, but usually such guys can still field; JD Drew acquitted himself quite well in RF in 2007 even while suffering from a subpar season at the plate. But Crawford was awful in the field as well, and that play in Baltimore was inexcusable given the fact the playoffs were on the line. Worse, he complained constantly.

He had a minor recovery at the plate his first 2 seasons with the Dodgers, but even there he could no longer steal bases or field, and he wasn't that old. But that didn't stop him from blaming Boston for his continuing struggles.

It's fine to correctly point out that the 2011 collapse was not due to the players simply not caring. However, Crawford deserves absolutely zero benefit of the doubt from Boston fans, and I have no issue with posters rejecting the injury/adjustment hypotheses when it comes to explaining one of the worst free agent signings in Red Sox history.
 

simplicio

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Ortiz: regular season OPS .931. Postseason .947.

Not really much of a difference there.
My point being that there's such wild variability within the SSS of postseason play, especially as measured by series, that the idea of "clutch" isn't really more than confirmation bias. When things turn out well, we get to play the highlight reel of his grand slam against Detroit in '13 and ignore the rest of his at bats from that series. He was the opposite of clutch last year against the Indians, but it's simply more fun to remember him keeping them alive against the Yankees in '04 or single-handedly winning the '13 WS. This is even worse for pitchers, where just a start or two (or a few innings as a reliever) can completely alter their postseason legacy.
 

Devizier

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If you look at the top ten postseason PA leaders (Jeter, Williams, Ramirez, Posada, Justice, Lofton, Jones, Martinez, Ortiz, and Molina) you'll find that their weighted postseason WRC+ is 109 and their (unweighted) average regular season WRC+ is 125. This is probably what you'd expect based on the strength of opposition faced in the postseason. Of that list, Jeter and Ortiz do best relative to their regular season numbers (Jeter is 121 postseason, 119 regular season; Ortiz is 144 postseason, 140 regular season).

Didn't bother with pitchers, but I'd imagine similar results.
 

Wayapman

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Aug 19, 2012
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My point being that there's such wild variability within the SSS of postseason play, especially as measured by series, that the idea of "clutch" isn't really more than confirmation bias. When things turn out well, we get to play the highlight reel of his grand slam against Detroit in '13 and ignore the rest of his at bats from that series. He was the opposite of clutch last year against the Indians, but it's simply more fun to remember him keeping them alive against the Yankees in '04 or single-handedly winning the '13 WS. This is even worse for pitchers, where just a start or two (or a few innings as a reliever) can completely alter their postseason legacy.
So if you had a 1 game playoff you would want Clayton Kershaw on the mound over say...Bumgardner? I agree with you that there are consistency and SS issues with proving any hypotheses regarding "clutch" especially w regards to playoff baseball.

But just evaluating people in general, some thrive under pressure and stress while others struggle with it. I believe that still holds to athletes as well. Guys like Price and Kershaw have struggled in the playoffs for years. Not saying these guys can't handle it, because they wouldn't be who they are if they couldnt, but perhaps it does have some miniscule effect on them

Edit: my main reason for chiming in was people were down on price because of his postseason performance. We signed him knowing he has a history of performing less effectively as a starter in the postseason. The fact that he continued doing what he always has done shouldn't be a reason people feel he didn't or won't live up to his contract.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
My point being that there's such wild variability within the SSS of postseason play, especially as measured by series, that the idea of "clutch" isn't really more than confirmation bias. When things turn out well, we get to play the highlight reel of his grand slam against Detroit in '13 and ignore the rest of his at bats from that series. He was the opposite of clutch last year against the Indians, but it's simply more fun to remember him keeping them alive against the Yankees in '04 or single-handedly winning the '13 WS.
Another really good example is 2008. Papi's epic dinger in Game 5 is rightly revered, but it's easy to forget that he OPS'd under .700 for the series and grounded into a forceout with the tying runs on base in the 8th inning of game 7.

But just evaluating people in general, some thrive under pressure and stress while others struggle with it.
This is entirely plausible as a general principle, but I think it's a mistake to assume that we fans have enough good information to tell which of the athletes we're watching fall into which bucket. I think you'd have to spend some time working closely alongside someone to get a good take on that. And it's certainly dangerous to judge by results, because there are so many confounding factors at work, especially in the SSS cauldron of the postseason. Example: Willie Mays had a career .589 World Series OPS in 78 PA. Frank Robinson had a career .903 WS OPS in 106 PA. Does this mean Robinson had a better personality for performing under pressure than Mays? Maybe. But I'd want a lot more than about a regular-season month's worth of evidence before I assume that there's anything other than luck operating there.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Barry Bonds couldn't hit in the playoffs... until he did. Maybe it was the HGH.

First 116 PA .196/.319/.299
Next 92 PA .333/.576/.870
Playoff Total .245/.433/.503
Career Total .298/.444/.607

Carlos Beltran has always over performed in the playoffs too.