Putting Pedroia Out To Pasture?

[Todd Benzinger]

Nunez would be great to keep around as a superutility guy, and as Pedroia insurance. I hope they bring him back. Seabass is right about the incentives from Nunez's PoV, but the age, career mediocrity, and injury issues may also depress his market or make the best move for him a 1 one year make good contract. Playing in Fenway may help his numbers. What other team is going to offer him a long(er) term deal at decent money with these questions hanging over him? It's not like teams were lining up for him at the deadline when he was available for not much.

Part of the anti-DP sentiment may be that playing against the Astros made Pedroia look bad; Altuve is what we were hoping (even expecting) that Pedroia would become, but DP wasn't able to stay at that level, and he probably will never get close again. I know I caught myself thinking that as I watched the games. But DP is an excellent player. Maybe he is not the leader he thinks he is, but its awfully hard for us to know that.

Nunez has made $8.7M in his career, has been on four teams, is 30 years old, and is coming off his best season that ended with him being carried off the field because his knee collapsed. He's going to take the biggest, longest contract he can get, and that'll come from a team that has a starting job for him..

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

3 years ago we had a damn good 2B come up from Pawtucket. They converted him to OF, no reason why they couldn't convert him back. He wears #50, nice guy, avid bowler.

Because he's the team's best outfielder and is exceptionally good in the field in right. They'd be creating a hole to plug one that they don't need to create in the first place. That ship has sailed.

 

[Kielty's Last Pitch]

Because he's the team's best outfielder and is exceptionally good in the field in right. They'd be creating a hole to plug one that they don't need to create in the first place. That ship has sailed.

You don't think Benny or JBJ could handle RF?

We need a big bat, it will be a lot easier to fill that need by acquiring an outfielder.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

You don't think Benny or JBJ could handle RF?

We need a big bat, it will be a lot easier to fill that need by acquiring an outfielder.

The point is that you're creating another problem to deal with in the off season when you don't need to. Pedroia has deteriorated to the point where instead of getting surplus value from his contract, he'll probably be about worth it year to year. That's not a dire need so you don't create a hole to fill when the front office has plenty of genuine problems to address already. Never mind the 10/5 rights.

Unless his knee is bad enough for him to retire, he's not going anywhere. I'm guessing he'll ride out the rest of this competitive window, then hang em up when the team starts hitting its next heavy retool or rebuilding phase. He's too competitive for him to not be willing to tough it out for a couple more years on the off chance he gets one more ring out of it.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Because he's the team's best outfielder and is exceptionally good in the field in right. They'd be creating a hole to plug one that they don't need to create in the first place. That ship has sailed.

Some analytics have hims as the best defensive player in MLB, period.

 

[Kielty's Last Pitch]

The point is that you're creating another problem to deal with in the off season when you don't need to. Pedroia has deteriorated to the point where instead of getting surplus value from his contract, he'll probably be about worth it year to year. That's not a dire need so you don't create a hole to fill when the front office has plenty of genuine problems to address already. Never mind the 10/5 rights.

Unless his knee is bad enough for him to retire, he's not going anywhere. I'm guessing he'll ride out the rest of this competitive window, then hang em up when the team starts hitting its next heavy retool or rebuilding phase. He's too competitive for him to not be willing to tough it out for a couple more years on the off chance he gets one more ring out of it.

Agreed. I'm not saying replace Pedroia now, as I've already gone on record as saying let's see what happens with him in 2018 before making any changes. I'm just saying if God forbid Pedroia isn't able to play at all next season then Mookie would be an option.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Agreed. I'm not saying replace Pedroia now, as I've already gone on record as saying let's see what happens with him in 2018 before making any changes. I'm just saying if God forbid Pedroia isn't able to play at all next season then Mookie would be an option.

Yeah, that's why I want them to pay up and bring Nunez back. I don't like him as your starter on day one, but as a fall back should Pedey's knee give out, he's about as good as you can get on the free agent market.

 

[pinkunicornsox]

I think you bring Brock Holt back as Pedroia insurance and be done with it. Holt had a bad year. He was dealing with concussions and vertigo. One off year doesn't mean he is toast.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Part of the anti-DP sentiment may be that playing against the Astros made Pedroia look bad; Altuve is what we were hoping (even expecting) that Pedroia would become, but DP wasn't able to stay at that level, and he probably will never get close again.

This is revisionist history (at least the bolded part is). Altuve is what Pedroia *did* become, at least in terms of overall value; he's a better hitter than Pedroia ever quite managed to be, but not nearly as good a defender. They were both MVP-level players in their mid-20s primes. Altuve just finished his age-27 season, in which he put up 7.5 fWAR/8.3 brWAR. In his age-27 season, Pedroia put up 7.8/7.9. Their performances at ages 24-26 also compare extremely well, aside from the fact that Dustin lost half his age-26 year to injury.

In short, Pedroia was as good a player as Altuve at the same ages. He didn't stay that good, but most players don't, and it's too soon to say that Altuve will.

 

[koufax37]

The decline phase will not always be a pleasure, but I think we are jumping the gun. His four years starts at $16M and goes down each year, so it is not difficult to envision him with enough WAR to cover that, Mojo/History/Legacy aside. I remember when this town had decide Roger was done (okay, maybe that was only our GM), and when Papi was done years before he was.

Pedroia is still only 33, and if (big if) he can stay healthy he can certainly realistically fend off father time for a few more years. The so called eye test has him still making impressive plays on defense, he hasn't relied on base stealing for his value since 2013.

He will need to work on becoming the next Pedey and not trying to be the 2008 Pedey, more cautious on the bases, more off days than he would have ever let Tito give him, and more off innings when we are comfortably up or down and a Marrero type gets to fill in after his seventh inning at bat.

The bar isn't very high for Pedroia's next four years to be useful and productive, and as a franchise icon, we can handle a little bit of a pay for past performance if the decline is faster than we think.

For me the biggest thing for the next manager is to avoid being Tito'd into too many games and innings, and not let him play hurt. A healthy Pedroia still has a lot going for him, so it is easy to play him and pay him when that is the case, and not let him scrap his way ineffectively through any injuries that come up, but require him to be at close to full health.

I'm taking the over on 2018-2021 WAR vs the conventional wisdom, and while it might be a tough job for the new manager to reign him in to maximize his health and value, a managerial change will be helpful to make it happen as opposed to expect Farrell to suddenly change his habits. With such a young strong position player core, and one bopper to add to the lineup still, Pedey can thrive in a reduced role, work on staying healthy and in the lineup the best he can, and I think is the least of our worries.

It is important that we reset our expectations and understand what a valuable but not dominant Pedroia can look like, and the role he can play in our 2018 success and beyond.

 

[Todd Benzinger]

I didn't mean to suggest Pedroia had never been that good, just that he didn't "stay at that level," IE didn't maintain the MVP level plateau as Altuve seems to be doing. DP seems unlikely to get back there. And Altuve is there now.

My point was to say that the contrast with current Altuve leads to unfair demands on or views of PD, based on his past heights, so I don't think we actually disagree. My emphasis on potential was awkward.

This is revisionist history (at least the bolded part is). Altuve is what Pedroia *did* become, at least in terms of overall value; he's a better hitter than Pedroia ever quite managed to be, but not nearly as good a defender. They were both MVP-level players in their mid-20s primes. Altuve just finished his age-27 season, in which he put up 7.5 fWAR/8.3 brWAR. In his age-27 season, Pedroia put up 7.8/7.9. Their performances at ages 24-26 also compare extremely well, aside from the fact that Dustin lost half his age-26 year to injury.

In short, Pedroia was as good a player as Altuve at the same ages. He didn't stay that good, but most players don't, and it's too soon to say that Altuve will.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Pedroia is still only 33

2017 was his age-33 season, but he's been 34 since August. Next year he'll be 34-turning-35. For a defense-first second baseman who can't reasonably be expected to play any other position and has serious, chronic knee problems, that's pretty ancient.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Too depressed to read the entire thread. Pedey obviously not healthy and that knee likely affected his power numbers. What he can do in the offseason is probably limited to a clean up and perhaps a lnee lubricant like CC Sabathia, The latter needing to be repeated several times in season.

His days of playing every day are probably over but a Drewish 120-130 games per year is perhaps something the Red Sox try to get from him given his contract and icon status among the locals

Pedey at DH or 1B is not feasible given the teams need to get power from these positions. The Baby B's are good players but nobody would call them the Baby Bombers.

Once Pedeys OBP drops at some point in the future hopefully the new manager will be dropping him in the order and not repeat the Yankees foolishness of running Jeter out to the number 2 spot every day

 

[Green Monster]

I agree with point that he declined since his 2008 MVP season, but in fairness his numbers weren't what you would normally think of as an MVP. It was a very solid year, but ...............326 17 83 .370 obp .869 ops 123 ops+

I don't think he was ever the offensive player that he got credit for being.

 

[timlinin8th]

Seabass is right about the incentives from Nunez's PoV, but the age, career mediocrity, and injury issues may also depress his market or make the best move for him a 1 one year make good contract.

The injury issues are what scare me about having Nunez on this team as the backup MI. We would be seeking to get a backup because the main guy's knees are an issue, so we'd bring in a guy who last we saw had his knee collapse too?

After a season where the Red Sox ended up playing significant numbers of games with their backup to the backup at 3B, I don't want to sign a FA to the the MI backup that has bad knees. That opens the door for a similar backup-to-the-backup situation at 2B.

 

[charlieoscar]

You don't think Benny or JBJ could handle RF?

Do you think Benintendi has the arm to play RF?

 

[The Mort Report]

I think the negative pedroia people are the ones that want mvp caliber pedroia back. Dude is not going to add much offense above replacement. That doesn’t mean he’s going to suck, he’s going to be an average offensive 2b. He will however give us a win or three on D. Stick him in the 7 spot and only Betts and 10D would I worry about less. People need to stop expecting pedroia to be a savior, just an above average 2B that bleeds Boston

 

[threecy]

I think one of the big things, statistically, is for him to be healthy when he inevitably goes into one of his streaks. When he's locked in, he takes the cover off the ball for a week or two straight. Whether he's healthy or not during one of his cold snaps probably doesn't matter as much.

 

[charlieoscar]

I think the negative pedroia people are the ones that want mvp caliber pedroia back.

From 2007, when he became a regular, through 2017, Pedroia has averaged 134 games per season, in spite of having five seasons in which he played 154 to 160 games. In the past four seasons he has missed 162 games.

That is my problem with him. When he plays, he plays well; however....

 

[Devizier]

Pedroia still had a 102 WRC+ this year. Which pegs him at above average.

The missed time is obviously the major concern going forward.

 

[soxfan121]

He will however give us a win or three on D.

I have no idea why people think this. Did you read Dr. Awesome's (blog) post? Did you watch Pedroia try, and fail, to play the field in September?

If he gets the knee fixed, he will probably decline a little defensively. If he does not get the knee fixed, he cannot play defense anywhere close to prior levels. Either way, his days as a stellar defender are likely over. Pedroia's comments about his own knee are scary. There should be no reasonable expectation that he's going to be worth anything on defense.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Do you think Benintendi has the arm to play RF?

Let’s not even go down that rabbit hole.

Betts is a great, great defensive right fielder, and especially now that he’s not running into walls it should be a position where he can enjoy a long and productive career. Let that be.

As for 2B, I think the Sox would be best served by cutting Holt loose and signing an actually good bat who’s able to play multiple infield positions on both sides of the infield, rather than a “spark plug” or “Swiss Army Knife” or “dirt dog” or whatever.

Then, pencil in Pedroia for about 100-120 games; with 100-120 games of Hanley, 130-140 games of Xander, and 130-140 games of Devers, This player — let’s call him “Neduardo Unez” — would surely get 130-140 games playing 2B, SS, and 3B.

Basically, Pedroia’s injury concerns along with Xander’s history of second-half fades means the Red Sox roster needs the infield equivalent of Chris Young.

Fortunately, it doesn’t appear they also need the outfield equivalent, in addition. So if DDski thinks he’s identified the right guy to be just that, then he should pay that player whether or not he’s assigned any particular position.

 

[charlieoscar]

Pedroia still had a 102 WRC+ this year. Which pegs him at above average.

The missed time is obviously the major concern going forward.

Yes, but if he is missing 162 games over four years that is essentially playing 3/4-ths of the time and if his replacement has a wRC+ of 52 like Brock Holt, that drags the position average down below average.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Let’s not even go down that rabbit hole.

Betts is a great, great defensive right fielder, and especially now that he’s not running into walls it should be a position where he can enjoy a long and productive career. Let that be.

As for 2B, I think the Sox would be best served by cutting Holt loose and signing an actually good bat who’s able to play multiple infield positions on both sides of the infield, rather than a “spark plug” or “Swiss Army Knife” or “dirt dog” or whatever.

Then, pencil in Pedroia for about 100-120 games; with 100-120 games of Hanley, 130-140 games of Xander, and 130-140 games of Devers, This player — let’s call him “Neduardo Unez” — would surely get 130-140 games playing 2B, SS, and 3B.

Basically, Pedroia’s injury concerns along with Xander’s history of second-half fades means the Red Sox roster needs the infield equivalent of Chris Young.

Fortunately, it doesn’t appear they also need the outfield equivalent, in addition. So if DDski thinks he’s identified the right guy to be just that, then he should pay that player whether or not he’s assigned any particular position.

So, like, a mid-priced IF backup and a RH OFer with a little pop for minimum dollars? Making it basically a monetary wash from the CY/Holt tandem this year? Dammit, I wish we could find those guys...

 

[charlieoscar]

Let’s not even go down that rabbit hole.

That was just because someone suggested the he or JBJ could play RF. I thought he might want to reconsider.

I think they can do better than Holt for a utility player; although, he does have experience playing the OF. Nunez would probably be a good signing but that won't happen unless he is guaranteed full-time play. He does have a little bit of experience in LF (and apparently emergency time in RF). His signing would largely be predicated on whether Pedroia has to have surgery. As I am not convinced that Devers is the answer at 3B as a fielder, Nunez could play there upon Pedroia's return and Devers could be tried at 1B/DH. Other than that, I liked Lin when he was up and he seems versatile enough to be an inexpensive utility man.

 

[Sprowl]

That was just because someone suggested the he or JBJ could play RF. I thought he might want to reconsider.

Benintendi led the Red Sox outfielders in assists in 2017. He can't play centerfield as was as Bradley, nor can he play rightfield as well as Betts, but that is because both of them are gold glove candidates, while Benintendi rates as just a little better than average in his first full year.

Yes, he can play any outfield position.

 

[The Needler]

Benintendi led the Red Sox outfielders in assists in 2017. He can't play centerfield as was as Bradley, nor can he play rightfield as well as Betts, but that is because both of them are gold glove candidates, while Benintendi rates as just a little better than average in his first full year.

Yes, he can play any outfield position.

And Manny Ramirez led Red Sox outfielders with 17 assists in 2005. Red Sox outfielders are often led in assists by the left fielder, despite the fact that he has Often had the weakest arm. For some reason.

Benentendi has a an average to below average arm for an MLB outfielder, which is not a good match for RF at Fenway. Of course, we did survive having Centerfielders with awful arms for a good period of time.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

As for 2B, I think the Sox would be best served by cutting Holt loose and signing an actually good bat who’s able to play multiple infield positions on both sides of the infield, rather than a “spark plug” or “Swiss Army Knife” or “dirt dog” or whatever.
.

Those players get starting jobs and starting pay. I think the Sox are going to go cheap on the bench and look internally.

Marco Hernandez and Josh Rutledge should be back, Lin has the ability to play IF and OF, they could decide to put Brentz on the 40 man before losing him(doubtful). It really sucks Castillo has that poison pill of a contract because he would be a perfect fit as 4th OF. Even before his breakout season this year, he's always hit lefties.

There's a reason why UI are usually referred to as "spark plug" "swiss army knife" and "dirt dog." If they were better, they wouldn't be a UI. Expect a Holt type, or Holt. I really hope they move on from Holt though.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

And Manny Ramirez led Red Sox outfielders with 17 assists in 2005. Red Sox outfielders are usually led in assists by the left fielder, despite the fact that he has tended to have the weakest arm. For some reason.

Benentendi has a an average to below average arm for an MLB outfielder, which is not a good match for RF at Fenway. Of course, we did survive having Centerfielders with awful arms for a good period of time.

Manny was a terrible fielder but he wasn't exactly Johnny Damon or Jacoby Ellsbury in the arm strength department. Some of Manny's assists were due to him being a terrible fielder but having a decent arm... sorta like Cespedes.

 

[BaseballJones]

Those players get starting jobs and starting pay. I think the Sox are going to go cheap on the bench and look internally.

Marco Hernandez and Josh Rutledge should be back, Lin has the ability to play IF and OF, they could decide to put Brentz on the 40 man before losing him(doubtful). It really sucks Castillo has that poison pill of a contract because he would be a perfect fit as 4th OF. Even before his breakout season this year, he's always hit lefties.

There's a reason why UI are usually referred to as "spark plug" "swiss army knife" and "dirt dog." If they were better, they wouldn't be a UI. Expect a Holt type, or Holt. I really hope they move on from Holt though.

The Castillo contract is killer. Is there ever a point at which... it would be worth it??

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The Castillo contract is killer. Is there ever a point at which... it would be worth it??

It's less than $10.4 mil against the cap if he was ever called up. It's just he's a bench player. If he proved worthy of starting 120+ games a year, it'd be worth it. The only way for him to really prove that is at the Major League level though. He's kinda boned. I said going into 2017 that he'd have to have an OPS well in the .900 range over the course of 300 PA to even be considered for a call up. He put up a .857 OPS (.314/.350/.507) in 369 PA but only walked 11 times. He also only struck out 51 times (13.8%) so the low walk rate isn't necessarily crippling. From May onward, he had a .903 OPS in 297 PA to finish the season (.325/.361/.502). His BAbip for the year was also somewhat high at .332, but he's also fast. He has the arm strength too.

edit: Still don't get why they don't try Castillo at 2b and 3b when he played there in Cuba. It's been awhile and they get to see him every day so I'll defer to them, but if he was passable at 2b and 3b, that would give him even more value.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

As for 2B, I think the Sox would be best served by cutting Holt loose and signing an actually good bat who’s able to play multiple infield positions on both sides of the infield, rather than a “spark plug” or “Swiss Army Knife” or “dirt dog” or whatever.

The trouble is, any player who answers to that description is likely to be sought by a team that wants him to play full-time at one of those multiple infield positions. There's a reason why utility infielders are usually weak bats: if they were strong bats, someone would want them to play every day.

The good news for the Sox is that the FA market for Nunez doesn't appear especially strong; there's a bit of a glut of post-30, offensively decent 2B/3B types out there--besides Nunez, there's Forsythe, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Lowrie. So maybe Nunez would be available to the Sox on a contract that's a lot for a sub, but a bargain for a middling starter.

EDIT: Sorry, brain cramp, all of those guys except Walker have options, which in Cabrera's and Lowrie's cases at least seem pretty likely to get picked up. So the market may not be quite as glutty as I thought.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

So, like, a mid-priced IF backup and a RH OFer with a little pop for minimum dollars? Making it basically a monetary wash from the CY/Holt tandem this year? Dammit, I wish we could find those guys...

Yes, it would be great to find two such guys like this. If only this team could sign both “Neduardo Unez” and, let’s call the hoped-for OF “Ryce Rentz.”

 

[Kielty's Last Pitch]

And Manny Ramirez led Red Sox outfielders with 17 assists in 2005. Red Sox outfielders are often led in assists by the left fielder, despite the fact that he has Often had the weakest arm. For some reason.

Benentendi has a an average to below average arm for an MLB outfielder, which is not a good match for RF at Fenway. Of course, we did survive having Centerfielders with awful arms for a good period of time.

Sure Benny's arm strength is average, but he makes up for it with great feet positioning, strong instincts and extreme accuracy. He is more than capable of playing RF or CF, although I'd rather move JBJ to RF.

SoxProspects on Benny:
"Athleticism and profile to potentially play all three outfield positions. Average to above-average tools across the board."