Question on win probability

mwonow

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Sep 4, 2005
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This may not be the right place for this question, but I can't think of where else to ask it.

In Sunday's Gray Cup game, Calgary led Toronto by 8 (24-16) with 5 minutes left, and were driving for another touchdown to clinch the game. Calgary completes a pass, but the receiver fumbles on the 1. An Argo defender picks up the fumble on his own goal line and runs it 110 yards the other way (the length of a Canadian football field) for a TD - which, when followed by a 2 point convert, tied the game.

Later in the fourth quarter (53 seconds left) Toronto kicks a field goal. Calgary then storms back down the field, but are intercepted in the end zone with about 20 seconds left.

Obviously, the fumble/return and the interception had a huge impact on win probability. But how huge? Is there someplace I can go to find out? Help greatly appreciated!
 

santadevil

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Aug 1, 2006
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This may not be the right place for this question, but I can't think of where else to ask it.

In Sunday's Gray Cup game, Calgary led Toronto by 8 (24-16) with 5 minutes left, and were driving for another touchdown to clinch the game. Calgary completes a pass, but the receiver fumbles on the 1. An Argo defender picks up the fumble on his own goal line and runs it 110 yards the other way (the length of a Canadian football field) for a TD - which, when followed by a 2 point convert, tied the game.

Later in the fourth quarter (53 seconds left) Toronto kicks a field goal. Calgary then storms back down the field, but are intercepted in the end zone with about 20 seconds left.

Obviously, the fumble/return and the interception had a huge impact on win probability. But how huge? Is there someplace I can go to find out? Help greatly appreciated!
Grey

I thought Calgary was dumb for not taking a sure points and kicking a field goal from the 8, even if they had some downs. Touchdown wins it for sure, but a field goal puts them up 11 with about 4:00 to play.

They lost last year on late play as well, trying to win the game and Bo Levi Mitchell (QB) tried to run it in himself, rather then hand it off to Jerome Messam (who is built like Marshawn Lynch) to win it. Sounds familiar to any Pats fans?

Also, the Stamps are like the Yankees, so I'm happy they lost.

/end of not answering the OP question
 
Last edited:

santadevil

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Play by Play here for information: https://www.cfl.ca/games/2456/calgary-stampeders-vs-toronto-argonauts/#playbyplay

The play in Question:
Calgary ball, 1st and 7 on Toronto 8 (not sure why, first down just happened from the play before) - Pass (05:16) B. MITCHELL Completed Pass to K. JORDEN, caught at T9 (7 yds, 7 YAC), K. JORDEN Fumble forced by J. GABRIEL, Lost, Recovered by C. VAUGHN at T1 (109 yds), Touchdown Calgary 24, Toronto 22

This is what I get for the output from bowiac's link: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&score_differential=8&quarter=4&minutes=5&seconds=16&field=opp&yds_from_goal=8&down=1&yds_to_go=8 (100.00% probability to win)

Only other difference, other than field length is we have a 3 minute warning, instead of a two minute warning.
 

mwonow

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Sep 4, 2005
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Thanks, guys! Looks like 100% was overstated ;-}

It was an incredible end to the game, for sure! And off topic, but Grey Cups are a blas - I went to one in Winnipeg years ago (also Calgary/Toronto), and it was a week-long party, despite the bone-deep cold