Rate The Prospects: 2018 Edition

Cuzittt

Bouncing with Anger
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 20, 2001
20,301
Sinister Funkhouse #17
For many years, at the end of the Minor League seasons, the denizens of this fine forum spent time contemplating the performances of our young prospects and formed a list of whom they believed were The Boston Red Sox best prospects.

We'll, it's back.

So... your task... if you are willing to take it on... is to list at least 20 (if you want to go further, no one is stopping you) of the young men that make up the Red Sox minor league system in a numbered format that show who you believe are the top prospects in the farm.

You have questions? Let me see if I can answer them.

What is a prospect? I would argue anyone that still has rookie eligibility should be considered a prospect. How you define age/experience in forming the list is part of the fun. So, Mike Olt – not a prospect. Esteban Quiroz – I see no reason why not.

Can I consider players who did not play this year as prospects? If you want to vote for Jay Groome, be my guest.

I was busy this year and didn't really follow the Minor League Gameday Threads. Any help available for me to get caught up?
I can't believe you are admitting this. Anyway... here are links to the Season Ending Reports:

DSL
GCL
Lowell
Greenville
Salem
Portland
Pawtucket

Will somebody be making a master SoSH prospect list? It would be great if someone collated the results and churned out a nice SoSH top 20. Any volunteers?

What about your list? I will be producing my list later on in the process. Partially to avoid biasing the results, partially because my list tends to be very different due to certain quirks I have.

Go forth and vote!
 

thestardawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2005
861
Section 38, Row 13
1. Chavis
2. Groome
3. Houck
4. Casas
5. Shawaryn
6. Mata
7. Dalbec
8. Feltman
9. Ockimey
10. Hernandez
11. D,Diaz
12. Howlett
13. Lakins
14. Chatham
15. Raudes
16. Crawford
17. J. Diaz
18. E. Lopez
19 Reyes
20. Lin
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,478
Rogers Park
1. Groome – No results to speak of, but the highest upside in the system. Basically as soon as he shows anything at all in games, he'll rocket into MLB top 50 lists.

2. Chavis – Not too many 22 year olds slug over .500 in the high minors. I'm not worried about the PED suspension. Does he have a position?

3. Casas – Just going on hype here. Certainly looks the part.

4. Ockimey – I saw an Adam Lind comp, and that makes sense. Hitting RHP with patience and power (a .273/.393/.531 split in 2018 — *chef's kiss*) can be a carrying tool, especially in a platoon/PH role in the NL. Even improving to "mediocre" against LHP makes him a legitimate prospect IMO.

5. Mata – Reportedly his two-seamer is great. I'm worried about the walks.

6. Houck – Reportedly his two-seamer is great. I'm worried about the walks.

7. Lin – The ceiling isn't all that high, but I believe in the new flyball Lin. I can name something like 3-4 big league teams that would have been materially better if they had started Lin at SS. Not sure if he's graduated.

8. Dalbec – Next year is a huge year for Dalbec. Another power season, at a more age-appropriate level, would make him a real prospect IMO, especially because some of these parks he's slugged in are pretty inhospitable to power hitters. I've read the glove is good.

9. Shawaryn – At a certain point, anyone who looks like he could start an MLB game without embarrassing himself is a prospect.

10. Chatham – He needs a good season in AA/AAA next year as a 24 year old, but viable defensive shortstops with any kind of bat are prospects.

11. Diaz – He's a million miles away, but Danny Diaz hit six HR in a league where Oakland's entire affiliate hit five.

12. Scherff – At a certain point, anyone who looks like he could start an MLB game without embarrassing himself is a prospect.

13. Feltman – Very good 'pen potential.

14. Lakins – Good 'pen potential.

15. Howlett – A .915 OPS between the GCL and Lowell as an 18 y/o bears watching.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Given how weak the farm system is, it's hard to name 20 guys. I'm guessing the variance from list to list is going to be huge too, especially from 10-20. Normally I wouldn't even bother ranking DSL players and 2018 draftees unless they are exceptional talents, but given the state of the farm, there isn't much of a choice. There really aren't many high floor/low ceiling players in AA/AAA that are safe bets to make the majors and contribute even in a utility role. Players like Sam Travis and Tzu Wei Lin, both of whom I think graduated. Travis wouldn't be ranked anyway given he struggled mightily this year, but I'd might consider putting Lin in the top 10 just because he's going to at least have a career as a utility man.


1. Chavis: Big time power and has improved his strike zone judgement considerably over the last 2 seasons. Doesn't have a natural position but I'd like to see him at 2b.

2. Dalbec: Even more power and a better defender than Chavis. The strikeouts are a huge concern though and he has huge bust potential. Probably why he's lower on other people's list. He "struggled" early on but turned it on big time from July on despite walking considerably less and striking out slightly more which doesn't bode well. The ISO jumped considerably though, from .253 to .364.

First 75 games: 313 PA, .222/.345/.475 44bb/99k
Last 54 games: 230 PA, .303/.383/.667 22bb/77k

3. Houck: He struggled in the early going but turned it around in the 2nd half. The difference was night and day. Just look at the K/BB numbers. He clearly figured something out and given his pedigree, he could be our number 1 prospect next year. His in season progress is incredibly encouraging.

First 11 games: 6.16 era, 49.2 ip, 38k/37bb, .290/.397/.470 against. 1.93 WHIP, 15.8% K rate, 15.4% BB rate
Last 12 games: 2.86 era, 69.1 ip, 73k/23bb, .209/.284/.317 against. 1.14 WHIP, 26.2% K rate, 8.2% BB rate

4. Casas: 1st round pick in a weak farm system. We'll find out if it's helium next year.

5. Groome: The potential is still there. Next year is going to be huge for him.

6. Mata: Young arm. After showing good control last year, his walk rate more than doubled this year. Concerning to say the least.

7. Ockimey: Power bat, bad 1b. Walks a ton, also strikes out a ton. Hitting for contact is a huge concern going forward.

8. Flores: At only 17 years old, he's very far away from the show. He showed a lot in his brief time this year before being injured. He's an all around talent with no real weaknesses in his game. Potential to be a very good defensive SS with plus range, plus arm and above average speed. Also projects to hit for average and to have above average power. One to keep an eye on. He could be a quick riser.

9. Diaz: Another 17 year old who's very far away from the show and showed some promise in the brief time he played this season before being injured. When he was signed at 16, he was billed as having an age advanced approach at the plate with above average power and potential to be a decent 3b. He then hit 6 HRs in 113 PA in a league where people don't hit HRs. Given his age, it's very possible his power is considerably better than "above average." He could be another quick riser.

10. Feltman: Another guy who normally wouldn't sniff being a top 10 prospect due to being a MR, but the Sox system is bottom 5. He put up video game type numbers this year in A/A+, but despite being age appropriate (for a legit prospect) for the league, you'd expect that from a college arm. It will be interesting to see what he does in AA next year, and there is a very real chance we see him in Boston next year.

11. Chatham: A former 2nd round pick, Chatham's career has been riddled with injuries. Missing most of last year, he started this year in Greenville and quickly earned a promotion to Salem. Turning 24 in December, he was pretty old for the league. He'll be old for Portland next year too as far as legitimate prospects are concerned. He projects to be a good defensive SS with an average hit tool and very little power. He proved those scouting reports right in 472 PA this year, slashing .314/.350/.389. Unless he's actually a .300+ hitter, he will have to improve his BB rate and/or power to be anything more than a utility guy in the Majors.

12. Lakins: I'm not entirely sure why the Sox moved him to the bullpen in the first place (apparently it was due to his undersized frame and injury history) since he had decent results last year and a good 4 pitch arsenal, but it seems to have paid off. His K Rate went up while his BB rate went down but it's hard to say if the move to the pen caused it or it was just player development. It looks like he could be a legit threat out of the bullpen but if TINSTAPP is a thing, TINSTARP is even more of a thing.

13. Howlett: The 21st round pick in the 2018 draft, the 18 (now 19) year old Howlett absolutely mashed in his first pro ball experience, slashing .289/.402/.513 in 184 PA with 28bb/41k. He even got some press from Alex Speier. He has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, plus bat speed and plus power potential and he put it all on display. The scouting reports read like someone who was a 1st round pick. Helium.

14. Duran: The 7th round pick in the 2018 draft, the 22 year old Duran projects to be a plus defender at either 2b or in the OF. He has an aggressive approach at the plate and good contact skills. While he has little in the way of power, he has game changing speed (if not elite) to take advantage of his contact hitting. He still needs to learn how to steal a base but he's on the right team for that, as all the recent graduates have had substantially better SB% in the majors than the minors. If Duran can handle 2b/CF, he has the potential to be an every day player just based on his speed and contact ability. In his time this year, he slashed .357/.394/.516 in 302 PA with 16bb/48k and 24sb/10cs. You'd like him to walk a little more but it's hard to fault a guy for swinging the bat when he's hitting .357.

15. Decker: The 2nd round pick in the 2018 draft, the 18 year old Decker only had 5 PA this season due to an injury. He projects to be an above average bat in a corner OF spot with good power and ok contact skills.

16. Northcut: Yet another 2018 draft pick, Northcut was selected in the 11th round. Plus power, awful approach at the plate. Might be an average defender at 3b if he doesn't grow out of the position. How far he goes will depend on how much he improves his pitch selection.

17. Darwinzon Hernandez: Darwinzon made significant strides last year as a SP and continued to build on that this year. Having been in the Sox system since 2014, Darwinzon doesn't turn 22 until December and has already reached AA. He saw his K rate continue to climb this year (28.5% this year, 25.8% last), although his BB rate did too (14.0% this year, 10.9% last) and he was already wild to begin with. He was also much better to finish the year out despite a worse BABip and earned a promotion to AA, where he was moved to the bullpen... which I'm guessing was just to limit his innings than anything else. The BAbip figure suggests he was really unlucky this year but having a 5.6 bb/9 doesn't help either.

First 15 games: 5.19 era, 59.0 ip, 64k/40bb, .236/.374/.319 against, .329 BAbip, 1.68 WHIP, 24.0% K rate, 15.0% BB rate
Last 13 games: 1.50 era, 48.0 ip, 70k/26bb, .205/.330/.257 against, .343 BAbip, 1.40 WHIP, 34.3% K rate, 12.7% BB rate.

18. Shawaryn: The 23 year old Shawaryn continued his minor league track record of success this year, earning a promotion to AAA where he didn't miss a beat. He also lowered his walk rate from 8.4% last year to 6.2% this year. On the flip side, his K rate went from 29.6% to 21.6%. I'd like to see him moved to the pen next year but given his success, I'm not sure if they will.

19. Poyner: He'll graduate soon and is quite old for the list at 25, but he's been pretty good in a SSS at the major league level. His K rate did plummet compared to last year which is somewhat of a downer but he limits the free passes and doesn't give up many HRs. If he can get his K rates back to 2017 levels, look out.

20a. Denyi Reyes: My binkie and an outlier of sorts. While the 21 year old Reyes has always been a control freak who never walks anyone (Career 2.6% BB rate), his K rate has been on the upward trend. Before earning a promotion to Salem, Reyes put up a ridiculous line of
21 games, 1.89 era, 123.2 ip, 122k/13bb, .201/.222/.309 against, .850 WHIP, 25.6% K rate, 2.7% BB rate in Greenville.

While not as dominant in Salem, he was still impressive: 2.25 era, 32.0 ip, 23k/6bb, .242/.280/.355, 1.125 WHIP, 17.4% K rate, 4.5% BB rate.

His performance won him Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year and SAL POY. His stuff is fringe at best and he'll have to prove himself at every level but his control is off the charts.

20b. Pedro Castellanos: My other binkie and another outlier of sorts. Going into the year, the 20 year old 1b was pretty much impossible to walk or strikeout. His strikeout rate climbed a bit this year but he continued to hit for contact. He struggled out of the gate but finished the season strong. He's a bad defender, slow and has limited power but boy can he hit for contact. He finished the year hitting .302, following seasons of .326 and .338.

First 58 games: 239 PA, .271/.310/.342, .316 BAbip, 33k/7bb
Last 30 games: 126 PA, .361/.381/.471, .408 BAbip, 17k/5bb