Rebirth of a Sale, man

Ed Hillel

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It literally is insane.

What justification would there be to have him out there throwing 99-100 in a meaningless (by every sense of the word) game?

They aren't even remotely trying to win. It does not matter. Be logical. There's no way he's sitting 90-91 maxing out his fastball.
Bradford was literally on the broadcast tonight and said something is wrong with Sale and his fastball was not where it’s supposed to be. Sale himself said before the game the idea was to “crank it up” and get the fastballs where they should be.

He’s still a great pitcher who can mix things up and get outs, but survey says something’s wrong.
 

soxhop411

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Bradford was literally on the broadcast tonight and said something is wrong with Sale and his fastball was not where it’s supposed to be. Sale himself said before the game the idea was to “crank it up” and get the fastballs where they should be.

He’s still a great pitcher who can mix things up and get outs, but survey says something’s wrong.
Let’s wait it see what they say post game
 

NDame616

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Bradford was literally on the broadcast tonight and said something is wrong with Sale and his fastball was not where it’s supposed to be. Sale himself said before the game the idea was to “crank it up” and get the fastballs where they should be.

He’s still a great pitcher who can mix things up and get outs, but survey says something’s wrong.
None of will know the answer to any of this until the playoffs (or after) but...what do you expect him to say? "Man this is a joke lineup in a meaningless game I'm just here to throw 90 pitches and get to the dugout"?

I'll err on the side of "if he was pitching at "max" and topping out at 91 in the first inning he would've been pulled after the first.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Bradford was literally on the broadcast tonight and said something is wrong with Sale and his fastball was not where it’s supposed to be. Sale himself said before the game the idea was to “crank it up” and get the fastballs where they should be.

He’s still a great pitcher who can mix things up and get outs, but survey says something’s wrong.
I'm still going with "he wasn't trying" and sticking to it. All the signs point to it, unless you think it's just some horrific coincidence that he "lost" 5+mph on his four seamer during the second half of a completely meaningless doubleheader late in September with a AAA lineup starting in shitty weather.

There was zero reason for him to waste bullets on this game. That isn't an exaggeration.

Edit: I'd say Cora's response even backs that up. Arm isn't a concern, but he can't say "yeah, Sale was purposely holding back out there".
 

soxhop411

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It’s a machanical issue with his hips per every SOX writer


I hate my phone so much
 
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Sampo Gida

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Cora says Chris Sale is fighting his mechanics. Arm is not concern
Pitchers have been known to adjust mechanics when they have arm problems , and this can lead to more problems. For a guy who hasnt been 100% for almost 2 months due to a shoulder problem that landed him on the DL , the lack of concern sounds not real to me.
 

Pozo the Clown

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I'm stunned that no one is seeing Sale's performance tonight for what it truly was: the selfless act of a "team-first" player. By purposefully dialing back on his velo, he's taken the spotlight off of Price's lackluster last 2 outings. Now, instead of endless media scrutiny focused on Price leading up to the playoffs, the narrative will be about Sale's condition. [emoji6]
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I'm stunned that no one is seeing Sale's performance tonight for what it truly was: the selfless act of a "team-first" player. By purposefully dialing back on his velo, he's taken the spotlight off of Price's lackluster last 2 outings. Now, instead of endless media scrutiny focused on Price leading up to the playoffs, the narrative will be about Sale's condition. [emoji6]
Not confident in either one heading in to the postseason, or really any bullpen arm including Kimbrel after last night
 

JimD

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Mild concern is warranted, and my level of worry will jump significantly if Sale looks like this in Game 1, but I'm oddly optimistic right now. Unlike past years where Sale wore down at the end of the year, as exemplified by his poor performance in the ALDS last year, I do feel there is an greater chance that Sale can return to being something closer to the dominating ace for the playoffs. This is obviously not guaranteed by any means, but it does feel somewhat better than the nagging worry I had about Sale at the same time last year after a blah September performance.
 

williams_482

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The idea was how to deal with SSS problems. I figured those that had very few PAs shouldn't pollute the weighted average with 0.000 or 2.000 type OPS.
Players with minimal playing time on the season are likely to be replacement level scrubs, so regressing towards league average is going to artificially inflate their true talent levels. On the whole, this adjustment will bring the average opponent quality for each pitcher closer to league average than it really should be.

In a situation like this where you literally just want to know how good this group of batters has been, you are better off just using what they've actually done or what they are projected to do.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Mild concern is warranted, and my level of worry will jump significantly if Sale looks like this in Game 1, but I'm oddly optimistic right now. Unlike past years where Sale wore down at the end of the year, as exemplified by his poor performance in the ALDS last year, I do feel there is an greater chance that Sale can return to being something closer to the dominating ace for the playoffs. This is obviously not guaranteed by any means, but it does feel somewhat better than the nagging worry I had about Sale at the same time last year after a blah September performance.
My bigger concern is that his last two outings, his velocity dropped in each. One would think as he is recovering and ramping up for the playoffs, that it would increase, or at least stay consistent. His sliders looked pretty sharp yesterday, and yes he struck out 8, but there is not much difference between the Orioles and insert any AAA team. They are terrible. If he goes in to the ALDS with that velocity against NY, he will get crushed. Without the real Chris Sale, this team has almost zero shot of making it past the MFYs and Houston.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Players with minimal playing time on the season are likely to be replacement level scrubs, so regressing towards league average is going to artificially inflate their true talent levels. On the whole, this adjustment will bring the average opponent quality for each pitcher closer to league average than it really should be.

In a situation like this where you literally just want to know how good this group of batters has been, you are better off just using what they've actually done or what they are projected to do.
There are at least 5 general reasons why a player might have minimal playing time: They were playing regularly and subsequently got hurt, they started off hurt and are only recently back, they were promoted recently during the season, they were subsequently demoted or they are a fringe / reserve player that doesn't get much playing time. The first 3 categories, I would argue, suggest league average should be used whereas the last two would suggest league average will inflate the results.

A pitcher can very easily face a guy 4 times in a game and give up a single and a walk for a 833 OPS. If the guy was 0 for 6 in his other two games before being sent back down or hurt he'd have a season OPS of 311 and our pitcher would look like a schmuck for allowing 522 pts above 'average' for that 1/2% of his season. That's what small sample sizes do - no way was that guy a 311 OPS hitter so let's correct the disparity with something innocuous like league average. I'm just eliminating the unrealistic extremes.
 

BaseballJones

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Concern level at the moment for all prospective playoff pitchers for the Red Sox (1 being no concern at all, 10 being RED ALERT, RED ALERT):

Sale - 7 - Still hasn't really shown a ton since he's come back from the injury. Very worried about his velocity.

Price - 7 - Last couple of outings have been struggles. Always worried about him as a playoff starter.

Porcello - 7 - Last 9 starts: 5.73 era, 1.25 whip. Not so encouraging.

Eovaldi - 5 - Just totally up and down. Not sure what role he's gonna play.

Rodriguez - 6 - Talent is there. Unsure what he'll produce.

Kimbrel - 6 - See Rodriguez. He's had some struggles in key spots.

Barnes - 7 - The walks. Man, the walks.

Kelly - 10 - No belief that he'll get guys out when he needs to.

Wright - 3 - Someone will jack one off him but he has been on a roll lately.

Brasier - 5 - Never been in this spot before.

Hembree - 7 - He's just not that good.

Workman - 6 - Good past playoff performance, but that was when he was hitting 97.

Long story short... including Chris Sale, I have a LOT of concerns about this staff heading into October.
 

patoaflac

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Concern level at the moment for all prospective playoff pitchers for the Red Sox (1 being no concern at all, 10 being RED ALERT, RED ALERT):
Long story short... including Chris Sale, I have a LOT of concerns about this staff heading into October.
Kelly? If he is included that will be absurd. Poyner or Velazquez are well ahead of him.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I choose to think Cora's mantra the past month has been, "Do everything necessary to prepare for optimum performance" in the playoffs...

It's certainly the truth that very few meaningful games have been played since the Yankee series (despite my teeth gnashing that something terrible could happen and the team may slip to the WC).

If we look at the pitching performances in that light, it's entirely conceivable that no one has thrown a meaningful pitch in a long time - the only goal being to crack 105 victories, which in and of itself is meaningless.

So, as a glass half full guy, I'm buying into no judgment until game 1 of the ALDS where we can hopefully watch a gassed Tanaka and broken Chapman compete against a tuned up machine.

I think Cora learned a lot from last year's campaign in Texas.
 

The Needler

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There are at least 5 general reasons why a player might have minimal playing time: They were playing regularly and subsequently got hurt, they started off hurt and are only recently back, they were promoted recently during the season, they were subsequently demoted or they are a fringe / reserve player that doesn't get much playing time. The first 3 categories, I would argue, suggest league average should be used whereas the last two would suggest league average will inflate the results.

A pitcher can very easily face a guy 4 times in a game and give up a single and a walk for a 833 OPS. If the guy was 0 for 6 in his other two games before being sent back down or hurt he'd have a season OPS of 311 and our pitcher would look like a schmuck for allowing 522 pts above 'average' for that 1/2% of his season. That's what small sample sizes do - no way was that guy a 311 OPS hitter so let's correct the disparity with something innocuous like league average. I'm just eliminating the unrealistic extremes.
No, you’re just adding something nearly meaningless and divorced from reality. Eliminating the unrealistic extreme would be eliminating it, not treating it as something totally random. I don’t consider it “innocuous” to treat Shohei Otahni as an ~.800 hitter when his OPS against pitchers other than Verlander is much closer to ~1.000. If your goal is to identify the quality of the hitters actually faced, this adjustment significantly taints that effort.

It might be helpful if you showed your work, so we can see just how many of these adjustments were made, and judge for ourselves how reasonable they were.
 

williams_482

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There are at least 5 general reasons why a player might have minimal playing time: They were playing regularly and subsequently got hurt, they started off hurt and are only recently back, they were promoted recently during the season, they were subsequently demoted or they are a fringe / reserve player that doesn't get much playing time. The first 3 categories, I would argue, suggest league average should be used whereas the last two would suggest league average will inflate the results.

A pitcher can very easily face a guy 4 times in a game and give up a single and a walk for a 833 OPS. If the guy was 0 for 6 in his other two games before being sent back down or hurt he'd have a season OPS of 311 and our pitcher would look like a schmuck for allowing 522 pts above 'average' for that 1/2% of his season. That's what small sample sizes do - no way was that guy a 311 OPS hitter so let's correct the disparity with something innocuous like league average. I'm just eliminating the unrealistic extremes.
If Sale faced a guy three times who had 10 PAs at a 2.000 OPS, that's not a good estimate of his true talent level but it's also just 3 PAs among hundreds for Sale. Across the bulk of the sample, that sort of disparity will even out.
 

Wake49

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I felt more confident about the ‘04, ‘07, and ‘13 teams than I do these guys. It comes down to pitching and those teams had it, this team does not. Hope they prove me wrong.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I felt more confident about the ‘04, ‘07, and ‘13 teams than I do these guys. It comes down to pitching and those teams had it, this team does not. Hope they prove me wrong.
I actually think this team, when healthy, has better SP than any of those teams ... the bullpen, not so much.

It really all comes down to Sale though, for me. If he is pitching in October throwing 88 mph fastballs, especially against teams with loaded lineups, they are doomed. I am grateful that we got '04, '07 and '13 but it doesn't make me want another one any less. This is a pretty great team, and it would be a real shame to see them out of the playoffs quickly, due to injury. I know every team deals with injuries, but it just sucks that they were so careful with Sale, and it appears to not have done any good.
 

In my lifetime

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His fastball velocity in the last 2 starts in comparable to his velocity through May 15th. I choose to believe/hope that Sale is just ramping up his arm and that we will see the 95+ fastball in game 1.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Concern level at the moment for all prospective playoff pitchers for the Red Sox (1 being no concern at all, 10 being RED ALERT, RED ALERT):

Sale - 7 - Still hasn't really shown a ton since he's come back from the injury. Very worried about his velocity.

Price - 7 - Last couple of outings have been struggles. Always worried about him as a playoff starter.

Porcello - 7 - Last 9 starts: 5.73 era, 1.25 whip. Not so encouraging.

Eovaldi - 5 - Just totally up and down. Not sure what role he's gonna play.

Rodriguez - 6 - Talent is there. Unsure what he'll produce.

Kimbrel - 6 - See Rodriguez. He's had some struggles in key spots.

Barnes - 7 - The walks. Man, the walks.

Kelly - 10 - No belief that he'll get guys out when he needs to.

Wright - 3 - Someone will jack one off him but he has been on a roll lately.

Brasier - 5 - Never been in this spot before.

Hembree - 7 - He's just not that good.

Workman - 6 - Good past playoff performance, but that was when he was hitting 97.

Long story short... including Chris Sale, I have a LOT of concerns about this staff heading into October.
Now do the NYY.
 

Pitt the Elder

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So 2 thoughts on Sale:
  1. Considering how much time Sale took off, is it possible that he's experiencing a dead arm?
  2. Didn't Sale make a mechanical adjustment in May or so that resulted in his velocity climbing to 97-100 mph in his starts? Has anyone with the expertise done any sort of video analysis to see if his mechanics are off?
 

Adrian's Dome

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I don't watch the Yankees day-in and day-out, so I can't really comment. Of course I always think their pitchers will do well while ours struggle. heh
Given the only one of our pitchers that you listed below a 5 on your concernometer is the knuckleballer, I'm not sure you should comment on ours, either.
 

BaseballJones

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Given the only one of our pitchers that you listed below a 5 on your concernometer is the knuckleballer, I'm not sure you should comment on ours, either.
He's been the most consistent pitcher on the staff lately. Which tells you why I'm pretty nervous about our staff in general.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Speier sees a correlation between "extension" and his FB velocity.

Extension measures how far in front of the rubber the ball is at the point that a pitcher releases it. When batters talk about how it feels as if Sale is on top of them at the point of release, extension — which is dictated chiefly by lower-body mechanics — plays a part in that.

On Wednesday, Sale’s average extension at his release point was 5.97 feet toward the plate. That continued a pattern in which his extension in September has been relatively low (6.06 feet) as compared with his season average (6.11 feet), and particularly low relative to how close he’d been to the plate during his 10-start run of dominance.

...

The silver lining for the Sox? After a June 1 start in which Sale featured his second-lowest extension of the year (5.92 feet toward the plate) and one of his bottom 10 average four-seam velocities (94.8 m.p.h.), he received an extended period of six days of rest. When he returned on June 8, Sale’s extension was back at 6.12 feet toward the plate, and his velocity exploded, averaging 97.8 m.p.h.
And this is the baseballsavant.com graph he made of his extension vs avg FB velocity for each start this season.
 

brandonchristensen

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Can you sum it up? Don’t want a Globe subscription. Thx.
I didn't need one to read.

Basically he's not extending home as far. He usually reaches about 6.15 feet towards home plate from the rubber, but he was barely hitting 6 feet the other day.
 

Al Zarilla

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Thanks DS and BC. So, is he going to be able to get the longer extension,
and then, velocity back when we need him to. Or, is that extra extension like living out on the edge and make him prone to arm problems again? We need it to be the one behind door #1.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I didn't need one to read.

Basically he's not extending home as far. He usually reaches about 6.15 feet towards home plate from the rubber, but he was barely hitting 6 feet the other day.
the obvious reason for that is he's afraid to let it rip. I mean we are talking .15 feet, or about 2 inches for a guy who stands 6'6". A logical guess on why is not mechanics as much as his brain's reluctance to go max effort because its uncomfortable when he does
 

Twilight

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Or maybe he's intentionally not letting it rip. If he is holding himself back to 90 or 95%, I could easily see that translating into a slightly shorter stride length and less effort behind each pitch, resulting in a shorter extension. So, it could be mechanics as a result of not letting it rip, but I don't think we can tell whether that's because he's "afraid" or he's doing it on purpose.

There is a master plan here, with Cora as the architect, and I'd guess Sale has bought into it. The different approach to pitchers ramping up in spring training was our first glimpse of it, and saving it for the playoffs is consistent with that philosophy.
 

WestMassExpat

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SOMEONE SHOULD TELL HIM!

Sale's condition and readiness couldn't be more perfect for a movie sequel. After the relatively bland '07 and '13 editions, an ace struggling to find the right mechanics is the perfect trope for Air Bud 4/the 2018 team. Better yet, let's have the second-best starter also apparently fit the mold his last two starts.

If there's a silver lining, hopefully the lost swagger at having the best record (now with these personnel question marks) is more than replaced by an underdog grit.
 

joe dokes

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the obvious reason for that is he's afraid to let it rip. I mean we are talking .15 feet, or about 2 inches for a guy who stands 6'6". A logical guess on why is not mechanics as much as his brain's reluctance to go max effort because its uncomfortable when he does
I suspect you're right and he probably *is* uncomfortable. That makes the most sense. But, we've all heard stories over the years about players coming back from injury and doing analogous things only because of the "brain's reluctance," based on how it felt during injured time, not because it actually is (or would be) uncomfortable if he let it go. Anything other than "oh shit," is inevitably grasping at straws, but it's not completely improbable that he has felt good all the way through his comeback and wants to save the max effort for the playoffs "just in case." I doubt it's that simple, though. And it didn't sound like it was intentional based on the post-game comments. Like I said, grasping at straws.
 

Pitt the Elder

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I think an important data point for the "is Sale injured or not" debate is that, in his sole start between DL stints, Sale's stuff was absolutely electric (avg 97.9 mph) and his extension towards home plate was among the highest of the year (6.3 ft or so). Likewise, his start right before he went on the DL was similar. I think it's clear that his shoulder injury didn't diminish his stuff, even though the discomfort was enough to put him on the DL. It's possible that going all-out is what *caused* the discomfort in the first place, so it is plausible that he's been holding back while he gets his pitch count up to where he needs it to be so that he can start the postseason with no restraints.

It's also possible that there is, indeed, some disconnect in his lower body biomechanics and that he's not transferring as much torque to his upper body, reducing his arm speed and thus shortening his extension towards home. It's also possible that the two are related. If he's holding back at all with his lower body, that may result in a biomechanical glitch where his timing is off and his velocity drops more than you might expect.

Anyway, I think we can all agree that we'll know all we need to know within 3 pitches of Game 1.
 

uk_sox_fan

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If Sale faced a guy three times who had 10 PAs at a 2.000 OPS, that's not a good estimate of his true talent level but it's also just 3 PAs among hundreds for Sale. Across the bulk of the sample, that sort of disparity will even out.
Certainly, though not as quickly as the disparity between the 'true talent level' of a slightly below average hitter and the resulting number when his performance is bumped up slightly by averaging in his missing PAs with the league average. Both will only be a small share of the pitcher's total PAs but the guy whose OPS is near 0 or over 1000 due to SSS distortions will have a larger effect.
 

Adrian's Dome

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the obvious reason for that is he's afraid to let it rip. I mean we are talking .15 feet, or about 2 inches for a guy who stands 6'6". A logical guess on why is not mechanics as much as his brain's reluctance to go max effort because its uncomfortable when he does
Or, you know, he was intentionally not throwing with 100% effort, but yeah, let's run with "brain's reluctance."
 

joe dokes

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Again, what do you want him to say?

He can't come out and say "that game meant nothing and the conditions were terrible, so I was giving it 80%".
You're right, but he's also unlikely to say, "I don't know if I can hold up with Max effort."
 

Adrian's Dome

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You're right, but he's also unlikely to say, "I don't know if I can hold up with Max effort."
For the most part over his career, he hasn't. Usually fades hard at the end of the year.

Which is why I fully believe the Sox have been deliberately holding him back in the 2nd half, especially once the division was essentially sealed up.
 

joe dokes

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For the most part over his career, he hasn't. Usually fades hard at the end of the year.

Which is why I fully believe the Sox have been deliberately holding him back in the 2nd half, especially once the division was essentially sealed up.
Fair point. But unless you're saying that the shoulder issue was nearly-total hogwash, this year is different, and the holding him bacl was more than just 2nd half rest.
 

lexrageorge

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There definitely was a shoulder issue, especially after that Baltimore start in August. They were understandably cautious in bringing him back. I think it's fair to be at least mildly concerned until Game 1.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Fair point. But unless you're saying that the shoulder issue was nearly-total hogwash, this year is different, and the holding him bacl was more than just 2nd half rest.
I think the shoulder inflammation was real. However, I don't believe a little extra inflammation is a huge deal (especially in a professional athlete mid-season,) but they were overly precautious about it, and it was the right play. I think in past seasons, especially Farrell seasons, he would've been out there through it all, and experiencing the same wear down and fatigue he's gone through in the past. This year there was no reason to keep the foot on the gas, so nip the entire thing in the bud, give him a long extended rest and a whole bunch of low-stress work coming back, and save your bullets for when it really matters.