Red Sox Post Season roster-ALDS- 2018 edition

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I've been waiting for this thread to kick off for weeks, and now it's official, so here goes:

SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, EdRo
BP:Kimbrel, Kelly, Brasier, Wright, Eovaldi, Barnes, Poyner, Hembree

Lineup:
Betts
Beni
JD
X
Moreland/Pearce
Devers/Nunez
Leon/Vazquez
JBJ

Bench:
Holt
Swihart


Edit- added Hembree .... 25

 

[gedman211]

Looks good. I wouldn't be shocked if Devers doesn't make the roster and Workman or Hector are there in his place. Cora seems to have lost confidence in Devers, and justifiably so. Though It's nice that Rafi still has a couple of weeks to find a groove.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

What? When????

And I think you can have 25 players. Hembree is making that roster

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Looks good. I wouldn't be shocked if Devers doesn't make the roster and Workman or Hector are there in his place. Cora seems to have lost confidence in Devers, and justifiably so. Though It's nice that Rafi still has a couple of weeks to find a groove.

I think Devers will get the starts vs RHP and get PH for if he faces a lefty in later innings, and will get late inning defensive replacement by Nunez in close games with a lead

Duh! I can’t count. Yes. Adding him

 

[Jim Ed Rice in HOF]

You've got a 24 man roster. I assume Kinsler is the missing link and 11 pitchers? I think that will work for the ALDS but for the ALCS they would expand to 12 and have to cut the bench back by one.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

He added Hembree, I agree Kinsler is there. Prob not Poyner .

 

[Ale Xander]

I have Hembree over Poyner and Hector over Eovaldi but I could be way off.

I agree with a 4 man starting staff, Sale going 1 and a potential 5 (or ALCS game 1).

 

[Ale Xander]

You've got a 24 man roster. I assume Kinsler is the missing link and 11 pitchers? I think that will work for the ALDS but for the ALCS they would expand to 12 and have to cut the bench back by one.

I think you're right

One of Kinsler/Nunez/Devers would then be cut

 

[BaseballJones]

I'd prefer to discuss what the postseason roster will look like in 2018. ;-)

Huge decision for Cora over whether he will go with 11, 12, or 13 pitchers. Personally I'd go with 11. Four starters and seven relievers. Won't try to figure out which ones here but I can see the 14 position players being:

Leon, Vazquez, Swihart
Moreland, Pearce
Kinsler
Bogaerts
Devers, Nunez
Benintendi
Bradley
Betts
Martinez
Holt

Great flexibility off the bench, every position covered, good L-R availability. You could leave Devers on the bench and have a nice power bat available if you want.

Good speed off the bench with Swihart and Nunez. Can run out lineups effective against lefties or righties. Lots of options for Cora.

But I bet he goes with 12 pitchers and so I don't know which of these guys doesn't make the roster.

 

[Ale Xander]

Oh and one more thing, this is 2018.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

Let's see, the OP had the wrong year, the wrong amount of roster spots, and left Kinsler off the roster completely.

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't see how Kinsler wouldn't be there. He's the best defensive second baseman we have. It's more likely one of Devers, Nunez, Swihart, or even Vazquez is left off the roster, IMO.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Let's see, the OP had the wrong year, the wrong amount of roster spots, and left Kinsler off the roster completely.

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

In his defense, we didn't have Kinsler in 2017.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Let's see, the OP had the wrong year, the wrong amount of roster spots, and left Kinsler off the roster completely.

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

The fat part is horribly incorrect.... the stupid part is spot on until my coffee, then I'm brilliant. I posted this pre-caffeine. Drunk though is correct. And yes. Kinsler.... so probably not Poyner. See... I'm caffeinated and brilliant now, this fine morning in 2018.

 

[Wake49]

I’d like to see Workman included.

 

[m0ckduck]

Would it be shocking if Eovaldi didn't make the cut? In his last 7 appearances, there's only two there that inspire confidence. I guess he'll probably be there because { throws hard } + { can go multiple innings } but perhaps 11 pitchers with Poyner and Hembree would be a better use of roster spaces.

Edit: 26 IP, 6.58 ERA, .934 OPS in last 7 appearances. Blech.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The most interesting question, to me, is how Cora will allocate relief innings to starters on their bullpen throw days. Because let’s be honest, having Sale or Price come out of the pen is way better relief than pretty much anyone other than, and maybe including, Kimbrel.

If that’s a major part of his playoff plan — and I think it should be, given the pen’s fade post-ASB — then Cora could actually go all the way up to an old-fashioned 15/10 split for the ALDS; 14/11 might makes as much, if not more, sense than a 13/12 filled with mediocre RHRP arms.

15/10
C - Leon, Vazquez, Swihart
IF - Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Núñez, Pearce, Holt, Devers, Phillips
OF- Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez

LHP - Sale, Price, Rodriguez, Poyner
RHP - Porcello, Kimbrel, Barnes, Wright, Eovaldi, and whoever is hottest from Brasier/Hembree/Kelly

For a 14/11 split, subtract one of Devers or Phillips and add another RHRP of your choosing.

 

[tims4wins]

I’d like to see Workman included.

Seriously. Workman has the 3rd best WHIP among Sox relievers (4th if you count Poyner). Only 13 BB in 37 1/3 IP which is better than pretty much every reliever except Brasier. Walks hurt in the playoffs.

 

[joe dokes]

Would it be shocking if Eovaldi didn't make the cut? In his last 7 appearances, there's only two there that inspire confidence. I guess he'll probably be there because { throws hard } + { can go multiple innings } but perhaps 11 pitchers with Poyner and Hembree would be a better use of roster spaces.

Edit: 26 IP, 6.58 ERA, .934 OPS in last 7 appearances. Blech.

I could see Workman getting ahead of him in line. But whether either makes it onto the roster depends on the number of pitchers.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Would it be shocking if Eovaldi didn't make the cut? In his last 7 appearances, there's only two there that inspire confidence. I guess he'll probably be there because { throws hard } + { can go multiple innings } but perhaps 11 pitchers with Poyner and Hembree would be a better use of roster spaces.

Edit: 26 IP, 6.58 ERA, .934 OPS in last 7 appearances. Blech.

Eovaldi and Kelly have always struck me as pretty much the same guy. Blistering heat that gets shockingly few swings and misses. I'm really not sure what Eovaldi adds, assuming Kelly is on the roster, which I imagine he will be.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Eovoldi will get more chances to show how well he can do going thru a lineup once.

Like last night when he was pretty good on his first nine

 

[Ale Xander]

Eovaldi and Kelly have always struck me as pretty much the same guy. Blistering heat that gets shockingly few swings and misses. I'm really not sure what Eovaldi adds, assuming Kelly is on the roster, which I imagine he will be.

Ability for multiple innings. I'd llike to see Eovaldi instead of Kelly, but I agree, I don't anticipate Kelly being cut. You don't need 6 SP's in a 5 game series. (Counting Wright as a long man/SP)

 

[tims4wins]

Eovoldi will get more chances to show how well he can do going thru a lineup once.

Like last night when he was pretty good on his first nine

Right, I don't see them letting him go through the lineup a second time through out of the pen. As a SP, his OPS against the 1st time through the order was .660 (.237 / .272 / .388). Now as a reliever it is .347 (.125 / .222 / .125). Combined it is a .644 OPS against first time through (.231 / .269 / .375).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Eovaldi has the potential of being what Price was in last year's post-season bullpen. He appeared in just two games, but threw 6.2 innings. They may not ask him to throw 3 innings at a time, but if he's sharp, he could do it. Last night he looked pretty good for 3 innings then ran into trouble. I found that encouraging.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Ability for multiple innings. I'd llike to see Eovaldi instead of Kelly, but I agree, I don't anticipate Kelly being cut. You don't need 6 SP's in a 5 game series. (Counting Wright as a long man/SP)

Correct. But you do need your best pitchers to get 27-63+ outs.

If those pitchers have been starters during the season, then — as long as you have a few firemen able to get loose quick and throw quality strikes from the stretch — so be it.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

A lot of time left for auditions.

It's conceivable that Phillips could replace Devers, but unlikely.

Wright needs to prove he's healthy. So does Barnes.

I assume Pomeranz is dead to us. That would leave the unproven Poyner as the only LHR in the pen. Not sure the team will roll that way.

If good to go, Wright becomes a big asset.I don't think you bank on starters being called in to relieve until you get to do-or-die games. Still - 11 pitchers sounds right to me. Swihart really should make the team, so 11 is all they've got.

No way Kelly is off the roster.

Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier, Kelly, Wright, Hembree, Eovaldi is my prediction.

 

[Coachster]

Do we really have to carry 3 catchers?

 

[DanoooME]

Let's see, the OP had the wrong year, the wrong amount of roster spots, and left Kinsler off the roster completely.

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

The fat part is horribly incorrect.... the stupid part is spot on until my coffee, then I'm brilliant. I posted this pre-caffeine. Drunk though is correct. And yes. Kinsler.... so probably not Poyner. See... I'm caffeinated and brilliant now, this fine morning in 2018.

The most interesting question, to me, is how Cora will allocate relief innings to starters on their bullpen throw days. Because let’s be honest, having Sale or Price come out of the pen is way better relief than pretty much anyone other than, and maybe including, Kimbrel.

If that’s a major part of his playoff plan — and I think it should be, given the pen’s fade post-ASB — then Cora could actually go all the way up to an old-fashioned 15/10 split for the ALDS; 14/11 might makes as much, if not more, sense than a 13/12 filled with mediocre RHRP arms.

15/10
C - Leon, Vazquez, Swihart
IF - Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Núñez, Pearce, Holt, Devers, Phillips
OF- Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez

LHP - Sale, Price, Rodriguez, Poyner
RHP - Porcello, Kimbrel, Barnes, Wright, Eovaldi, and whoever is hottest from Brasier/Hembree/Kelly

For a 14/11 split, subtract one of Devers or Phillips and add another RHRP of your choosing.

Personally, I prefer the 14/11 especially in the first round because the lesser guys won't be on the roster to tempt Cora into playing too many matchups. I'd rather see most guys get full innings when possible.

 

[joe dokes]

FWIW--On Wright.

While the team will manage knuckleballer Steven Wright’s workload out of the bullpen in his return from knee inflammation, Cora said the team plans to have him enter games with runners on base before the end of September to prepare him for all possible scenarios. “He’s a big part of what we’re trying to accomplish,” said Cora. “And he’s a different look, to say the least.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/09/11/from-looks-david-price-has-found-his-groove/3jJrzFPijdZVEWZ67el0cI/story.html

Do we really have to carry 3 catchers?

No. I think Vazquez might be another one on the bubble. Leon seems to be a lock for at least the first series no matter how badly he hits. I *think* Swihart has shown enough as a catcher that the team is comfortable with him as a backup. That, plus his versatility gets him on the roster.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Do we really have to carry 3 catchers?

No, but Swihart vs. Pearce may become a key decision point.

 

[joe dokes]

No, but Swihart vs. Pearce may become a key decision point.

I hadn't thought of Pearce as even a remote possibility to be left off the roster.

 

[Ale Xander]

Nice walkoff by Moreland, but I don't trust his health enough to leave Pearce off, either.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I'm certain that Cora and staff will consider and factor in team-specific, individual match-ups to determine which relief arms they carry. Who matches up best with Oakland's best hitters, or certain MFYs? They might do the same with our bench guys.

 

[Cuzittt]

I think we are approaching this in a way that isn't so intuitive. So... I'm going to look at it in a different way. Considering all players currently on the roster

[In all cases, the assumption is adequate health. There are still three weeks to go... ]

Position Player Division

STONE COLD LOCKS

1B Mitch Moreland
1B Steve Pearce
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Xander Bogaerts
LF Andrew Benintendi
CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
RF Mookie Betts
DH JD Martinez
UT Brock Holt
UT Eduardo Nunez

STONE COLD DROPS

UT Tzu-Wei Lin
1B/OF Sam Travis

The Great Debate

The Red Sox will obviously carry two catchers. Sandy Leon, despite hitting like Mario Mendoza, is likely #1. Then the debate becomes Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart. I'm not sure there is a lot to differentiate between the two as backup catchers. Swihart has more value in a full utility role. Is that role necessary? Not a clue. Sox could certainly take all three (and I think they do)... which puts the roster for non-pitchers at 13.

Then... there is the third base question. Nunez has been starting. Holt and Swihart can both play there as well. Do you add Rafael Devers or Brandon Phillips? Devers would bring power off the bench. Phillips, a veteran presence and possibly base running skills. Both could be useful. I would go with Devers over Phillips. That would be 14.

Pitching Division

STONE COLD LOCKS
Chris Sale (SP)
David Price (SP)
Rick Porcello (SP)
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP)
Craig Kimbrel (RP)

STONE COLD DROPS

Tyler Thornburg
Robby Scott (pitched once in September)
William Cuevas

The Great Debate

With the starting rotation set, it comes to debating who rounds out the bullpen with Kimbrel. So, I get to chose six from a group that includes:

1) (Standard Bullpen Relievers) Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Heath Hembree, Joe Kelly, Bobby Poyner, Brandon Workman
2) (Long Relievers) Hector Velazquez, Brian Johnson
3) (Starters) Nathan Eovaldi, Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz

If I was to choose right now... Brasier is obviously on. I expect he is as close to a lock as anyone here. Barnes would be a lock if he was pitching. He's not. If he shows he is healthy, he's on. Workman has been consistent, I would put him on. Then I take two from the long reliever/starter spots... and I think Wright brings something so different, he's an obvious choice. I'm going with Eovaldi at this moment for long-man two... but I'm not sure going with Velazquez or Johnson (who would give you a token lefty in the pen) is wrong. As for the sixth, I'm leaning towards Poyner.

But... I am far from certain about these choices and I don't see any reason to finalize a roster 3 weeks out. But, I think this here is where the debate lies: Who besides Kimbrel is going to be in the post-season pen? And I don't think the Red Sox are going to finalize that decision... until they absolutely have to.

 

[ookami7m]

Do we really have to carry 3 catchers?

I see that more as 2 1/2 catchers with Swihart being BROCKHOLT! Lite in his ability to play behind the plate as well as 1B/OF in a extra innings PH/PR role.

Also - those who are clamoring for Phillips on the post-season roster - why? I get the veteran presence bit and he had a great "welcome to the Sox" game - but why would we take him over Devers?

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Three catchers is big advantage, particularly considering catcher #3 can also play other positions, is a switch hitter, and can pinch run.

It opens up a scenario of having (say) Pearce PH for Leon and, if appropriate, Swihart (or Holt) PH for Vazquez late in the game. No other team can do that (I think).

 

[Wake49]

I wasn’t expecting Sale to throw 100mph his first time back but he did throw a lot of high 70s stuff. I don’t know how fast he was throwing in the pen but should that velocity be a concern?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I see that more as 2 1/2 catchers with Swihart being BROCKHOLT! Lite in his ability to play behind the plate as well as 1B/OF in a extra innings PH/PR role.

Also - those who are clamoring for Phillips on the post-season roster - why? I get the veteran presence bit and he had a great "welcome to the Sox" game - but why would we take him over Devers?

Because Phillips can both run the bases well, and can field 2B and 3B well. Devers is a better PH option, perhaps, but even there he may be more likely to succumb to playoff pressure against good pitching.

Also, it depends on Cora’s strategy for his starters. If he’s planning on giving Pearce most starts at 1B, there’s less of a need for another, different LH PH. The Sox would already have Moreland, Holt, and probably Swihart to do that job.

If, however, Moreland is going to be tabbed as the 1B starter, then the Sox may prefer a RHH of the bench instead of another lefty bat.

 

[Jim Ed Rice in HOF]

I wasn’t expecting Sale to throw 100mph his first time back but he did throw a lot of high 70s stuff. I don’t know how fast he was throwing in the pen but should that velocity be a concern?

The high 70's stuff was his slider which isn't that far off from where it's been this year. The chart itself doesn't look that concerning considering it was basically spring training part II.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I’m surprised about the near universal acceptance of Wright on the roster. I realize he’s been pitching well, but I also know how quickly the knuckleball can desert you. In the playoffs, where walks seem to always be a bad thing, I can’t say I’m comfortable having him on the mound in later innings. Especially when the “starter-lite” spot can be filled by others like Eovaldi and Velazquez.

 

[joe dokes]

I’m surprised about the near universal acceptance of Wright on the roster. I realize he’s been pitching well, but I also know how quickly the knuckleball can desert you. In the playoffs, where walks seem to always be a bad thing, I can’t say I’m comfortable having him on the mound in later innings. Especially when the “starter-lite” spot can be filled by others like Eovaldi and Velazquez.

Wright's BB/9 fits right in. He's a reliever. And we're going to see him come into games with runners on soon. He's no more prone to crapping his pants than just about anyone else thats pitched in the pen this year. Everyone's fill-in-the-blank ball has disappeared at times. I'm OK if Velazquez and his 1.5 WHIP are off at least the 1st round roster.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Also, bringing in a knuckler for a couple of mid-game innings can mess with the hitters' timing in the later innings (at least theoretically; not sure if there's ever been enough data to actually study this).

 

[RedOctober3829]

This is how I would go without knowing the specific matchups and assuming good health for Sale and Barnes. Bullpen is tough to project as Cora will go with the hot hand in some cases and we don't know that 3 weeks out. One spot is up for grabs between Blake Swihart, Brandon Phillips, and Rafael Devers. Right now, I have Devers as his power potential off the bench against a righty could be useful. However, the fact that they are working Phillips out at 1B and other positions means they are thinking seriously about carrying him. I am carrying Lin as the PR/defensive replacement type.

SP(4)--Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez
RP(7)--Kimbrel, Barnes, Workman, Brasier, Kelly, Eovaldi, Poyner
Lineup(9)--Betts, Benintendi, Martinez, Bogaerts, Moreland, Kinsler, Nunez, Leon, JBJ
Bench(5)--Pearce, Vazquez, Holt, Devers, Lin

 

[m0ckduck]

I’m surprised about the near universal acceptance of Wright on the roster. I realize he’s been pitching well, but I also know how quickly the knuckleball can desert you. In the playoffs, where walks seem to always be a bad thing, I can’t say I’m comfortable having him on the mound in later innings. Especially when the “starter-lite” spot can be filled by others like Eovaldi and Velazquez.

I don't think I agree with the premise here— as joe dokes says above, results are results. But let's grant for the sake of discussion that we don't want a knuckleballer on the hill with in the late innings. Even so, I think Wright has a valuable role to play.

There's a tendency to focus on preserving tight leads when thinking about playoff bullpen construction. But often equally critical is the role of keeping a game close after the team has fallen behind. And this is where I think Wright— if healthy— can perfectly play the Ramiro Mendoza role (Mendoza of the MFY obviously-- let us never speak of the Red Sox version). Imagine: it's the third inning. E-Rod (let's say) is scuffling, behind 3-1 with runners on base. Having a guy like Wright in the pen gives Cora the option of exercising a quick hook and bringing in someone who has a reasonable chance of getting through the order twice without letting the game slip away. I feel much better about him in that specific role than, say, Eovaldi, Velasquez or really anyone else currently in our pen.

 

[Wake49]

The high 70's stuff was his slider which isn't that far off from where it's been this year. The chart itself doesn't look that concerning considering it was basically spring training part II.
View attachment 23172

Ok cool, figured I was missing something.

 

[lexrageorge]

Wright has shown himself to be effective when healthy. He's healthy, and unless he's terrible these next 3 weeks, I have to believe he will be on the roster as a multi-inning relief pitcher, which are often needed in the playoffs. I would pick him over Eovaldi right now, and certainly over Pomeranz, Johnson, Velazquez.

 

[uncannymanny]

I don’t think Vazquez makes it – the short time back, redundancy in skill set with Leon, combined with Swihart’s versatility changes the calculus from a month ago.

I also can’t see any way Kinsler or Pearce are left off.

This is one of the more interesting years I can remember with the choices the manager has to make for the playoffs.

 

[uncannymanny]

A better way to manage this thread might be to define the absolute, 100% locks and folks could post their thoughts on the remaining slots. There has to be around 15 guys whose names don’t need to be included in every post.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

I think you have to leave Vazquez off ... I just don't see the point. Cora seems to like Swihart, and Leon, even though he can't hit a lick either is clearly the catcher the SP want to throw to.

 

[joe dokes]

I think you have to leave Vazquez off ... I just don't see the point. Cora seems to like Swihart, and Leon, even though he can't hit a lick either is clearly the catcher the SP want to throw to.

And swiharts defensive versatility means he can stay in the game if he PHs for someone else, and catch later when they hit for Leon.