Red Sox re-sign Mitch Moreland for 2 years, 13 M

Oppo

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Don't get why some think it's an overpay, only about 3% of the payroll for an elite defensive 1b who should provide 50+ XBH from the left side, and for much less than Hosmer's projected 6/$132. Without any better options, take the double and look to improve somewhere else.
 

MikeM

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That's certainly not a slam-dunk statement about the FA 1B options. It was true in 2017.

Career --- 2017 --- 2018 Steamer
Moreland - 25.3 PA/HR, .439 SLG --- 26.2 PA/HR, .447 SLG --- 22.6 PA/HR
Morrison - 27.5 PA/HR, .433 SLG --- 15.8 PA/HR, .516 SLG --- 21.6 PA/HR
Alonso - 42.8 PA/HR, .407 SLG --- 18.6 PA/HR, .501 SLG --- 27.9 PA/HR
Duda - 22.4 PA/HR, .457 SLG --- 16.4 PA/HR, .496 SLG --- 18.5 PA/HR
Hosmer - 34.6 PA/HR, .439 SLG --- 26.8 PA/HR, .498 SLG --- 24.7 PA/HR
Adams - 24.7 PA/HR, .469 SLG --- 18.4 PA/HR, .522 SLG --- ?

The only one I'd be confident in saying that about is Duda (whom I would've preferred in a vacuum). You're paying for 2017 while wholly banking on it repeating itself in the case of any of the others except Adams, who is strictly a platoon player.
As opposed to what, banking on the good parts of a 32yo Moreland's season (which finished right around his career average) being the "true production level" we can expect going forward?

That and the already presented notion that he could platoon with Hanley isn't any less of the justification reach on a completely lacking FA signing then it was when it got made last winter.
 

moondog80

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Don't get why some think it's an overpay, only about 3% of the payroll for an elite defensive 1b who should provide 50+ XBH from the left side, and for much less than Hosmer's projected 6/$132. Without any better options, take the double and look to improve somewhere else.
Because he is a 1B who provided below league average offense last year (as he has for most of his career), and for this they are giving him a deal better than last year in terms of both years and AAV, with many similar options on the market.
 

jp9183

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Don't get why some think it's an overpay, only about 3% of the payroll for an elite defensive 1b who should provide 50+ XBH from the left side, and for much less than Hosmer's projected 6/$132. Without any better options, take the double and look to improve somewhere else.
Because myself, I feel like elite defense at 1B is more of a luxury and Moreland's career says hes a .250 hitter with 20 homeruns. You can't have two defensive first players(Moreland and Bradley) in the lineup anymore if he even really is elite.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Take that Yankees! Stanton who?

If this is their off-season move I'll be pissed. They need a power bat, not another .250 hitter who can run into one every once in a while.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Exactly what he should say today. No way it'll happen.
Exactly. The key issue is whether it won’t happen because there will be a trade...or it won’t happen because they don’t wish to add Martinez at the AAV he hopes to get paid, when $56-78MM is still owed to Hanley and Panda.

And it’s not just them — the recent history in MLB of paying nine figure contracts to FAs hitters who bust within 0-3 years means I’m not sure the latter isn’t the better way to go, even if the Sox appear to “need HR power” to compete.

I still think the Sox acquire a big bat. But I think it’s even money whether DDski acquires Miggy for Hanley, or is patient enough to wait for JDM’s price tag to drop. And honestly, I’m not sure which I’d prefer, when all is said and done.

A buy-low opportunity on a HOF bat isn’t usually easy to come by, but the risk of getting saddled with damaged goods is very real with Miggy. OTOH, I think JDM will age only about as well as Adrian Gonzalez did, and that it would be pure craziness to pay him even $150MM to DH.
 

chawson

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Ok, so you're essentially saying that Ramirez will be traded or DFA'd? I don't see his contract as tradeable and I doubt they would DFA him since he has more upside than someone like Travis, who would play a similar role.

Also, I wouldn't look at it as a straight up RH vs LH platoon, but more of playing the hot hand at 1B and creating depth.
I think he's the DH if the Sox can't sign JDM or another better bet, so he's still on the team as an insurance policy. Otherwise, yes, I think he's traded or DFA'd.

Over the three years and $66 million so far in Hanley's contract, he's been worth $4.3M — maybe half a win, and most of that coming in the back half of 2016. If someone were to bet you $22M that Hanley's age 34 and 35 seasons wouldn't not be worth $44M, would you take that bet?

I love Hanley. He's exciting and I wish he'd played his prime years with us. But I think there's a good chance he's done in Boston.
 

Imbricus

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Totally okay with this. That's chump change these days. Better than overpaying for a Boras client and preserves some payroll flexibility.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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I think he's the DH if the Sox can't sign JDM or another better bet, so he's still on the team as an insurance policy. Otherwise, yes, I think he's traded or DFA'd.

Over the three years and $66 million so far in Hanley's contract, he's been worth $4.3M — maybe half a win, and most of that coming in the back half of 2016. If someone were to bet you $22M that Hanley's age 34 and 35 seasons wouldn't not be worth $44M, would you take that bet?

I love Hanley. He's exciting and I wish he'd played his prime years with us. But I think there's a good chance he's done in Boston.
Of course not. That's why his contract is not tradeable and why he would become a bench / part-time player. You're saying that he could either be the starting DH or could be DFA'd, which are the two complete opposites. I'll take the middle-ground and say that he will be a part-time player.

If they can somehow trade his contract, then great.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Exactly what he should say today. No way it'll happen.
Do you think there's no way the Sox add a bat, or now way they do so without moving another player?

That's certainly not a slam-dunk statement about the FA 1B options. It was true in 2017.

Career --- 2017 --- 2018 Steamer
Moreland - 25.3 PA/HR, .439 SLG --- 26.2 PA/HR, .447 SLG --- 22.6 PA/HR
Morrison - 27.5 PA/HR, .433 SLG --- 15.8 PA/HR, .516 SLG --- 21.6 PA/HR
Alonso - 42.8 PA/HR, .407 SLG --- 18.6 PA/HR, .501 SLG --- 27.9 PA/HR
Duda - 22.4 PA/HR, .457 SLG --- 16.4 PA/HR, .496 SLG --- 18.5 PA/HR
Hosmer - 34.6 PA/HR, .439 SLG --- 26.8 PA/HR, .498 SLG --- 24.7 PA/HR
Adams - 24.7 PA/HR, .469 SLG --- 18.4 PA/HR, .522 SLG --- ?
I wonder why they have both Moreland and Hosmer outperforming both their 2017 and career PA/HR rate in 2018, but everyone else is somewhere in between.

Moreland makes it bit more sense, since his power seems a bit more predictable recently, aside from an outlier in 2014 when he was injured and needed surgery. Hosmer's been all over the place aside from the past two season, both of which he's outperformed his career PA/HR - by far. His power numbers could improve, but I don't think it's the likeliest outcome.
 

Hawk68

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Totally okay with this. That's chump change these days. Better than overpaying for a Boras client and preserves some payroll flexibility.
Moreland 2017 season with June and July removed due to injury: 0.270 / 0.283 / 0.499/ 0.781. OPS 0.781 is not going to close the gap with Stanton to MFY, but he is a good fit for this team at 1B, keeps Sox out of the Hosmer's "intangibles" market.

This is a good first step, preserving room for an added middle of the order bat and letting the Chaves break-out evolve.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Ok, so you're essentially saying that Ramirez will be traded or DFA'd? I don't see his contract as tradeable and I doubt they would DFA him since he has more upside than someone like Travis, who would play a similar role.

Also, I wouldn't look at it as a straight up RH vs LH platoon, but more of playing the hot hand at 1B and creating depth.
I think the bolded is very much open to debate, especially if the role is a platoon. Travis has pounded LH pitching at every level--he hasn't had a single season, except the 2016 injury year, when his OPS wasn't over .900 vs. LHP, including .958 in his brief MLB stint last year (SSS, of course, but still, he held true to form).

I think there's an excellent chance that Travis provides more value than Ramirez in a platoon 1B role next year.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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I think the bolded is very much open to debate, especially if the role is a platoon. Travis has pounded LH pitching at every level--he hasn't had a single season, except the 2016 injury year, when his OPS wasn't over .900 vs. LHP, including .958 in his brief MLB stint last year (SSS, of course, but still, he held true to form).

I think there's an excellent chance that Travis provides more value than Ramirez in a platoon 1B role next year.
That's true. I think the ideal scenario would be to use Travis in the platoon role with Moreland (if we were to get a big bat at DH), but the Ramirez contract makes it complicated to pull off. Even if Travis has more potential, I think it makes more sense to start the year with Ramirez and see how he looks. If he regresses further and Travis is playing well in AAA, that is the point where you could DFA Ramirez.
 

Hank Scorpio

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About that Hanley/Moreland platoon at first:

Hanley vs LHP
2017: .179/.293/.387/.679
2016: .346/.420/.677/1.097
2015: .230/.276/.434/.710

It'd be swell to have the 2016 version of Hanley against lefties, but he's been utter trash against them two out of the last three seasons.
 

simplicio

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As opposed to what, banking on the good parts of a 32yo Moreland's season (which finished right around his career average) being the "true production level" we can expect going forward?
The uninjured parts, not just the good parts.

Monthly OPS ISO BABIP wOBA wRC+
Mar/Apr .837 .205 .349 .352 116
May .853 .186 .333 .366 126
Jun .762 .220 .267 .315 91
Jul .435 .026 .186 .213 21
Aug 1.061 .329 .357 .437 175
Sep/Oct .667 .209 .192 .282 69

Chop out just July (ignoring the fact that the injury happened mid-June) and that's a 115 WRC+ average on the year. I'm fine with that. Seems like he took a modest step forward offensively this year, as he met his norms in essentially three quarters of a season.
 

nvalvo

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About that Hanley/Moreland platoon at first:

Hanley vs LHP
2017: .179/.293/.387/.679
2016: .346/.420/.677/1.097
2015: .230/.276/.434/.710

It'd be swell to have the 2016 version of Hanley against lefties, but he's been utter trash against them two out of the last three seasons.
I know he's not getting any younger, but it seems worth noting that his career OPS v lefties is .897.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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About that Hanley/Moreland platoon at first:

Hanley vs LHP
2017: .179/.293/.387/.679
2016: .346/.420/.677/1.097
2015: .230/.276/.434/.710

It'd be swell to have the 2016 version of Hanley against lefties, but he's been utter trash against them two out of the last three seasons.
To be fair, that 3-year total comes out to a .843 OPS vs lefties. 23 HRs in 346 ABs. Either way, I don't think they would use a strict platoon. It would make more sense to simply play the hot hand at 1B with Hanley getting the first opportunity.
 

DJnVa

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I hate it. One year too many when that 6.5 mil could be better used elsewhere next season.
They'll eat that if they have to. There is literally no move next year that will be hamstrung by that money.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm good with Mitch...... when he was healthy he was very good- add top defense in there and he's a real deal. Hopefully if he (and not just him... duh!) gets injured again, Cora can step in and sit him down. Travis must be able to hit better than a .435 OPS and Mitch can heal up properly.
I don't see a trade or DFA happening with Hanley at this point. I think this team might very well be done to be honest. With Hanley's price tag and potential- DD has to go into '18 with his fingers crossed there and hope for the best. If he's doing well.... super! Gives us the option to deal him at the deadline for a better deal or hold onto him and keep hoping he hits.
 

AB in DC

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They'll eat that if they have to. There is literally no move next year that will be hamstrung by that money.
More to the point, it means that the Sox can find someone else to spend $20-30m on (per year) instead of sinking it all into an average-ish 1B. Overpaying for average production is exactly what got the team into the Sandoval mess, so I for one am very glad not to see it happen again here.
 

chawson

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Of course not. That's why his contract is not tradeable and why he would become a bench / part-time player. You're saying that he could either be the starting DH or could be DFA'd, which are the two complete opposites. I'll take the middle-ground and say that he will be a part-time player.

If they can somehow trade his contract, then great.
I don't think there is a middle ground. If the Sox sign JDM to DH, it's a tremendous waste of roster space to have another guy who can't play a defensive position and isn't sure to be a pinch-hitting asset, particularly if there's a good likelihood of him complaining about playing time in what would be a contract year.

I agree he has no trade value. If the Sox DFA him, he'd at least be able to latch on with a team that's interested.

Could be wrong of course, but that's how I'm reading the tea leaves. He's our DH until we sign JDM.
 

tonyarmasjr

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I don't think there is a middle ground. If the Sox sign JDM to DH, it's a tremendous waste of roster space to have another guy who can't play a defensive position and isn't sure to be a pinch-hitting asset, particularly if there's a good likelihood of him complaining about playing time in what would be a contract year.

I agree he has no trade value. If the Sox DFA him, he'd at least be able to latch on with a team that's interested.

Could be wrong of course, but that's how I'm reading the tea leaves. He's our DH until we sign JDM.
1B/DH/4th OFer comes out to about 1500-1600 PA to split between the three. Not ideal, but not a complete waste. I assume Martinez would fill the CY role, as opposed to DHing 160 G.
 

MikeM

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The uninjured parts, not just the good parts.

Monthly OPS ISO BABIP wOBA wRC+
Mar/Apr .837 .205 .349 .352 116
May .853 .186 .333 .366 126
Jun .762 .220 .267 .315 91
Jul .435 .026 .186 .213 21
Aug 1.061 .329 .357 .437 175
Sep/Oct .667 .209 .192 .282 69

Chop out just July (ignoring the fact that the injury happened mid-June) and that's a 115 WRC+ average on the year. I'm fine with that. Seems like he took a modest step forward offensively this year, as he met his norms in essentially three quarters of a season.
Why not reach even farther there and chop a month out of every season he's has had? If you did that he wouldn't be Mitch Moreland though I guess. This "healthy" 32yo Mitch Moreland is going to be better then career average Mitch Moreland idea/hope is essentially based on a SSS mirage and nothing more imo.

Plus if the Sox are really that concerned with our infield defense hurting an already handicapped lineup they probably should of aimed at the other side of the priority spectrum and just made a roll of the dice upside play on Cozart. Offering him the same contract he signed with the Angels minus the fairly notable stipulation of switching to a brand new position. Which then leaves you stocking up our barren farm with some extra prospects out of Xander after-the-fact, while worst case scenario still having the option to snag Moreland a month from now on a 1year/$2-3m deal when he blatantly failed to find a starting gig anywhere else after the chairs ran out.

It's not even like I loved Cozart or that deal either btw. But take the $10m off that we essentially just flushed away over some rushed need for DD to have his visible answer right now and it ultimately ends up looking a lot better.
 

Yo La Tengo

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If a team adds a player under contract who is subsidized by another team (Stanton to the Yankees, _______ to the Sox as a next step) does his full contract count toward the tax thresholds, or just the amount the receiving team has to pay?
 

RedOctober3829

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The Moreland signing guarantees Hanley Ramirez won't get ABs for 2019, makes it easier to trade or release him and clear deck for Martinez, w/Arizona financially viable. Scott Boras still doesn't rule out Hosmer, for Fenway LCF power potential. 'Backs hired JD's H mentor.

How does this not rule out Hosmer, Peter??
 

Plympton91

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Because he is a 1B who provided below league average offense last year (as he has for most of his career), and for this they are giving him a deal better than last year in terms of both years and AAV, with many similar options on the market.
Precisely.
 

Plympton91

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More to the point, it means that the Sox can find someone else to spend $20-30m on (per year) instead of sinking it all into an average-ish 1B. Overpaying for average production is exactly what got the team into the Sandoval mess, so I for one am very glad not to see it happen again here.
Yeah, the best case scenario is Hanley hits at aa .295 / 350 / 510 clip in 440 plate appearances. Thus, giving them great production and reasonable health without triggering the option.or getting close enough to it that some people and press rabble rousers feel like they should round up because in spirit he was close.
 

tonyarmasjr

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As opposed to what, banking on the good parts of a 32yo Moreland's season (which finished right around his career average) being the "true production level" we can expect going forward?

That and the already presented notion that he could platoon with Hanley isn't any less of the justification reach on a completely lacking FA signing then it was when it got made last winter.
No, as opposed to banking on Moreland being what he has been throughout his career. And we can hope that what he showed when healthy last year is who he can be in Boston, which does make some sense since he is more of a doubles hitter now in a doubles park. But he's been just as good or better than most of the other guys available. It's not a far leap for Moreland to be the best of that list over the next two years. Significantly upgrading on him involves a major trade and/or a good deal of money and risk.
 

bosockboy

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The Moreland signing guarantees Hanley Ramirez won't get ABs for 2019, makes it easier to trade or release him and clear deck for Martinez, w/Arizona financially viable. Scott Boras still doesn't rule out Hosmer, for Fenway LCF power potential. 'Backs hired JD's H mentor.

How does this not rule out Hosmer, Peter??
Holy cow that is a mess.

Signing Moreland might mean they’d rather dump Hanley than trade JBJ to make room for Martinez.
 

moondog80

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The Moreland signing guarantees Hanley Ramirez won't get ABs for 2019, makes it easier to trade or release him and clear deck for Martinez, w/Arizona financially viable. Scott Boras still doesn't rule out Hosmer, for Fenway LCF power potential. 'Backs hired JD's H mentor.

How does this not rule out Hosmer, Peter??
It does rule him out. Boras being Boras.
 

chawson

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MLB first basemen by 2017 expected wOBA | 2018 salary (per Statcast)

Votto .424 | $25m
Freeman .403 | $21m
Hoskins .399 | pre-arb
Goldschmidt .397 | $11m
Rizzo .397 | $7.29m (arb3)
Smoak .388 | $4.13m
Cabrera .382 | $30m
Olson .380 | pre-arb
Belt .379 | $17.2m
Carpenter .376 | $13.5m (arb4)
Zimmerman .375 | $14m
Gallo .374 | pre-arb
Bour .374 | arb1
Mauer .373 | $23m
Moreland .371 | $6.5m
 
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Imbricus

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I hope they keep Hanley. Maybe an unpopular opinion, but post shoulder surgery, I think he may surprise some people. He was 8 for 14 in the Houston series. I think he's still a good hitter if he can stay healthy.
 

sean1562

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How significant is that .009 gap between him and Belt? Worth an additional 10 mil a year?
 

MikeM

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No, as opposed to banking on Moreland being what he has been throughout his career. And we can hope that what he showed when healthy last year is who he can be in Boston, which does make some sense since he is more of a doubles hitter now in a doubles park. But he's been just as good or better than most of the other guys available. It's not a far leap for Moreland to be the best of that list over the next two years. Significantly upgrading on him involves a major trade and/or a good deal of money and risk.
Yet that leap is still resulting in a best case scenario that leaves you with below average offense at 1B, for a lineup that certainly looks to need the exact opposite atm/imo.

I'd rather swing and completely miss with at least the chance to hit the upgrade homerun we desperately need then pre-settle on what *might* be a better looking line drive out that ends the game with the same exact losing bet as last year.
 

chawson

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How significant is that .009 gap between him and Belt? Worth an additional 10 mil a year?
That list was intended to show that Moreland's 2017 batted ball profile suggests he was substantially unlucky last year and we may be getting a bargain.

I can't tell if your question is sarcastic, but the answer is yes, Belt probably is worth $10m more a year—if healthy and available. He slashed .261/.378/.472 in an extreme pitchers park over 2016-17 — a 130 wRC+. Moreland hit .240/.313/.433 in two moderate hitters' parks — a 93 wRC+. They both strike out at about the same rate, both play great defense, and both have very similar hard hit ball rates and spray charts (Belt goes opposite a bit more). But Belt walks nearly twice as much and tends to hit the ball in the air more. And Moreland is 2 1/2 years older.
 

EricFeczko

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MLB first basemen by 2017 expected wOBA | 2018 salary

Votto .424 | $25m
Freeman .403 | $21m
Hoskins .399 | pre-arb
Goldschmidt .397 | $11m
Rizzo .397 | $7.29m (arb3)
Smoak .388 | $4.13m
Cabrera .382 | $30m
Olson .380 | pre-arb
Belt .379 | $17.2m
Carpenter .376 | $13.5m (arb4)
Zimmerman .375 | $14m
Gallo .374 | pre-arb
Bour .374 | arb1
Mauer .373 | $23m
Moreland .371 | $6.5m
Proof?
Steamer has his expected 2018 wOBA at .324. Moreland has never had a rating higher than .357.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B
 

EricFeczko

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Huh.
I wonder if morrison/duda have high asking prices, which might explain the grab at moreland. Pitching and defense does it, I guess.
 

Rasputin

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I don't think there is a middle ground. If the Sox sign JDM to DH, it's a tremendous waste of roster space to have another guy who can't play a defensive position and isn't sure to be a pinch-hitting asset, particularly if there's a good likelihood of him complaining about playing time in what would be a contract year.

I agree he has no trade value. If the Sox DFA him, he'd at least be able to latch on with a team that's interested.

Could be wrong of course, but that's how I'm reading the tea leaves. He's our DH until we sign JDM.
He can play a position and the notion that there's a good likelihood he's going to complain is just something you pulled out of your ass.

And hey, if he were to be a problem in the clubhouse, this signing makes it easier to dump him.
 

chawson

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He can play a position and the notion that there's a good likelihood he's going to complain is just something you pulled out of your ass.

And hey, if he were to be a problem in the clubhouse, this signing makes it easier to dump him.
Drellich, 4/13/17: 'Charade's Over: Hanley doesn't want to play 1B, and that's OK'

I'm not calling him a "problem in the clubhouse." I'm saying that knowing what we know about Hanley, I don't see him agreeing that platoon 1B/DH is a good role for him in a contract year, should we sign JDM.
 
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nvalvo

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Quoting DRS and UZR, especially at 1B, s like saying someone is a great offensive player because they had a lot of RBI. Maybe. But I need more evidence.
If someone has an account on billjamesonline, I think they may maintain 1B scoop statistics. I no longer subscribe.
 

grimshaw

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Don't like it, but I trust that there is another shoe to drop.
I actually think this means Bradley is gone and they'll get an outfielder.

Edit: Just saw it could be Hanley.
 

MtPleasant Paul

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Like most of you, I like this signing. We are retaining a player who really wants to play in Boston. Supposedly he turned down more elsewhere to sign here last year. That's why they had to go to two years to keep him this time around. And with Devers at third, Moreland's good defense is important. The move also allows them to hold Hanley short of the 497 at bats needed to vest him and also to overpay for JDM. And if they can't get him, then Chavis at third could force Devers to DH where his future may well lie anyway.

I think Bradley should go for controllable starting pitching, given the continuing pitching poverty of the farm system and the fact that re-signing Sale and Pomeranz are by no means layups.
 

MikeM

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Drellich, 4/13/17: 'Charade's Over: Hanley doesn't want to play 1B, and that's OK'

I'm not calling him a "problem in the clubhouse." I'm saying that knowing what we know about Hanley, I don't see him agreeing that platoon 1B/DH is a good role for him in a contract year, should we sign JDM.
If Hanley Ramirez is still on the roster come ST it's as the full time DH. Period. That's the accompanying reality of this signing, and which might as well be exercising that vesting option early unless Speier's report is right that a release there voids it.

IDK, I get the sudden need to reach at any positive spin we can in the aftermath of this decision but swallowing Hanley's entire 2018 salary and then paying out another healthy $30m+ after LT costs on JDM? On top of a payroll that's already sitting at a record high? Just can't rationally see it.
 

NDame616

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2,315
Well, now we've gotten that big bat .....sigh.....AL East is ours for sure......sigh
So DD was supposed to go out and get any big bat this off season (JDM/Hosmer) no matter the cost and long term detriment to the club? In order to win the AL East this year?