Red Sox re-sign Mitch Moreland for 2 years, 13 M

sean1562

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So who is giving hosmer a mega deal now? I understand Boras needs to get the best deal for his client, but I would love for the “200 mil for Eric hosmer” stuff to blow up on his face. I doubt the padres are gonna give him some mega deal, that looked like Boras trying to create a market for him.

Maybe he goes back to the royals on a reasonable deal?
 

Green Monster

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So who is giving hosmer a mega deal now? I understand Boras needs to get the best deal for his client, but I would love for the “200 mil for Eric hosmer” stuff to blow up on his face. I doubt the padres are gonna give him some mega deal, that looked like Boras trying to create a market for him.

Maybe he goes back to the royals on a reasonable deal?
Seems like the most likely scenario, with the Indians as a possible wildcard. Perhaps Francona & Company jump in after loosing out on Santana.
 

lexrageorge

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No issue with this deal. The $6.5M AAV is in the "play money" territory for the Red Sox, and they may as well use it on a guy that has been productive, especially when not hurt. The team really cannot count on the 2016 Hanley coming out of the ashes, and if a better option at 1B was to arise, this contract doesn't prevent that.

Hosmer would be a terrible signing for this team. No need to repeat the Carl Crawford experience.
 

BJBossman

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That list was intended to show that Moreland's 2017 batted ball profile suggests he was substantially unlucky last year and we may be getting a bargain.

I can't tell if your question is sarcastic, but the answer is yes, Belt probably is worth $10m more a year—if healthy and available. He slashed .261/.378/.472 in an extreme pitchers park over 2016-17 — a 130 wRC+. Moreland hit .240/.313/.433 in two moderate hitters' parks — a 93 wRC+. They both strike out at about the same rate, both play great defense, and both have very similar hard hit ball rates and spray charts (Belt goes opposite a bit more). But Belt walks nearly twice as much and tends to hit the ball in the air more. And Moreland is 2 1/2 years older.
I'd love to see what Belt could do at fenway.

But not for the price of JBJ.

but I agree he would've been a great fit.

I'll take moreland for 1/3 the price of Hosmer (annually).
 

InsideTheParker

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I like this signing and can't believe that people who dismiss the importance of defense at first actually watch the games. Time after time Moreland saved throws from SS and third from flying into the dugout.
 

CurtieLeskanic

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As Gammons said in his somewhat perplexing tweet, this guarantees Hanley doesn't get the PAs necessary for the 2019 vesting option. I think we end up seeing the platoon that never was last year (because of Hanley's shoulder and Mitch's toe). We'll probably see JDM DH against righties with Hanley sitting most of the time and Mitch playing 1B.
vs. LHP
DH Hanley
LF JDM
1B Mitch
Or
DH JDM
LF Benny
1B Hanley
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I like this signing and can't believe that people who dismiss the importance of defense at first actually watch the games. Time after time Moreland saved throws from SS and third from flying into the dugout.
As it affects use of the 24-man roster, Moreland’s signing means the Sox now do not need to add a defensive specialist at 1B to the roster (which Travis clearly is not). So, if none of the OF is traded to make room for the “Big Bat” that DDski’s looking to add, Devers is really the only defender who should be replaced during save situations. Marrero becomes perfect as a roster fit - giving Bogaerts more rest at SS (against some LHSP) and providing late-inning defense at 3B.
 

grimshaw

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I like this signing and can't believe that people who dismiss the importance of defense at first actually watch the games. Time after time Moreland saved throws from SS and third from flying into the dugout.
I keep hearing this. He was 17th out of 21 in scoops among qualified 1b last year. Last among free agents.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

I'm sure he's good defensively by metrics the Red Sox use, but he doesn't stand out here.
And great defense at first doesn't come close to making up for crappy 1b offense as evidence of his 5 career WAR.

I do believe he'll earn his contract, but don't believe he was signed for any other reason than to foil Boras' grand plans of ridiculous contracts.

A healthy Moreland is worth what, another 1/2 to 1 win over last year?
 
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TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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I keep hearing this. He was 17th out of 21 in scoops among qualified 1b last year. Last among free agents.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

I'm sure he's good defensively by metrics the Red Sox use, but he doesn't stand out here.
No, he does not stand out in a (slightly) arbitrary counting stat - but he's pretty darn solid by every other metric on the page you link to.

I think that truly the most you can hope for is that the short bench in right at Yankee Stadium becomes more inviting for a healthy Moreland (and that the Green Monster is juuust high enough that the launch angle for Stanton's massive bombs off Porcello are kept inside the park)
 

MRBOSTONSPORTS

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I hope they keep Hanley. Maybe an unpopular opinion, but post shoulder surgery, I think he may surprise some people. He was 8 for 14 in the Houston series. I think he's still a good hitter if he can stay healthy.
I agree. A question we must ask would anybody at this time last season trade Hanley for J.D?
Most likely answer no.

Also we have our 30 homerun guy in Devers.
I think the Red Sox are done with big moves this year, so no splash.
Still a good team that won 93 games and will have Devers and Price for the whole year. Not to mention a different manager.
 

nvalvo

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I agree. A question we must ask would anybody at this time last season trade Hanley for J.D?
Most likely answer no.

Also we have our 30 homerun guy in Devers.
I think the Red Sox are done with big moves this year, so no splash.
Still a good team that won 93 games and will have Devers and Price for the whole year. Not to mention a different manager.
For JD Martinez? We would have done that without hesitation.
  • The age 29 season of JDM coming off .307/.373/.535 season with 22 HR in 120 games, held back on WAR by atrocious defense, owed $11.8m (8.5 AAV). His previous two seasons were worth 4 and 5 fWAR.
  • The age 33 season of Hanley Ramirez, coming off .286/.361/.505 with 30 HR in 147 games, held back on WAR by atrocious defense, owed $44m (22 AAV), with a vesting option for another $22. His previous two seasons were worth 3.4 and -1.7 fWAR.
We absolutely would have done that deal, seeing it as an opportunity to get younger, unload Ramirez' contract and uncertain future and buy low on JDM, a bad defensive player we were intending to DH, and who was just a year removed from his 2015 38 HR explosion. We probably would parlayed the AAV savings into acquiring a more expensive 1B than Moreland, likely Encarnacion, or an extension for one of the pre-arb players. (JDM would come with draft compensation, too, if he left in FA.)

The Tigers would never have agreed, however.
 

jerry casale

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If Hanley Ramirez is still on the roster come ST it's as the full time DH. Period. That's the accompanying reality of this signing, and which might as well be exercising that vesting option early unless Speier's report is right that a release there voids it.

IDK, I get the sudden need to reach at any positive spin we can in the aftermath of this decision but swallowing Hanley's entire 2018 salary and then paying out another healthy $30m+ after LT costs on JDM? On top of a payroll that's already sitting at a record high? Just can't rationally see it.
Yes, rock and hardplace. Hanley left well over 200 men on base last year. It has to be among the highest in baseball for the for PAs or number of chances or however you want to calculate. I just don't want him here at all but I don't see how you can DFA him and the $22M. DD HAS to get a little something in return.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Thing is...it's up to Ramirez. He can make it impossible to deny 497 appearances by being the guy he once was. He also backs up 1B if necessary. The beauty is that there's no point in projecting - it should be his actual play in 2018 that dictates his role...and he has a lot to play for.

If the Red Sox get JDM - it's got to be as a DH (+ some minor outfield backup) because that's what he is in the American League...a DH. I, for one, can't stomach the idea of paying a one-dimensional player Boras money based on the hope he's the next Ortiz...but it's not my money.

So, taking everything at face value, Moreland is the regular 1B, spelled by Ramirez - who is the regular DH, until he proves he can't be the regular DH. Throw JDM into that mix as the regular DH and what happens to Ramirez? He rightly becomes a negative influence in the clubhouse because the Red Sox are taking money out of his pocket without even giving him the chance to have regular ab's and prove he's worth it. I'd expect any player to be furious about that.

So, if JDM is essentially "Ramirez Insurance" the whole thing falls apart. Now you need to hope Hanley starts out well and becomes a trade chip that brings back something good.

It's all a Catch-22 to me. A "good" Hanley negates an expensive JDM. A team without JDM makes a "bad" Hanley unworkable. A team with JDM means Hanley's unlikely to prove he's a good trade piece.

What's the best option?
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Thing is...it's up to Ramirez. He can make it impossible to deny 497 appearances by being the guy he once was. He also backs up 1B if necessary. The beauty is that there's no point in projecting - it should be his actual play in 2018 that dictates his role...and he has a lot to play for.

If the Red Sox get JDM - it's got to be as a DH (+ some minor outfield backup) because that's what he is in the American League...a DH. I, for one, can't stomach the idea of paying a one-dimensional player Boras money based on the hope he's the next Ortiz...but it's not my money.

So, taking everything at face value, Moreland is the regular 1B, spelled by Ramirez - who is the regular DH, until he proves he can't be the regular DH. Throw JDM into that mix as the regular DH and what happens to Ramirez? He rightly becomes a negative influence in the clubhouse because the Red Sox are taking money out of his pocket without even giving him the chance to have regular ab's and prove he's worth it. I'd expect any player to be furious about that.

So, if JDM is essentially "Ramirez Insurance" the whole thing falls apart. Now you need to hope Hanley starts out well and becomes a trade chip that brings back something good.

It's all a Catch-22 to me. A "good" Hanley negates an expensive JDM. A team without JDM makes a "bad" Hanley unworkable. A team with JDM means Hanley's unlikely to prove he's a good trade piece.

What's the best option?
If Ramirez is furious about Boston bringing in a better DH option, to hell with him. He's had three seasons here where he has given us a grand total of 1.2 bWAR for roughly $65 million in return. There is little he can do anymore to justify his contract. He has been afforded ample opportunity to prove his worth and has failed.

If he cannot see the writing on the wall at this point, he is delusional. I see no realistic scenario where his 2019 option vests, but if it does, front office personnel need to be losing their jobs.
 

pinkunicornsox

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Yes, rock and hardplace. Hanley left well over 200 men on base last year. It has to be among the highest in baseball for the for PAs or number of chances or however you want to calculate. I just don't want him here at all but I don't see how you can DFA him and the $22M. DD HAS to get a little something in return.
I really have no feelings one way or another about John Farreal. That being said it was infuriating that he continued to bat Ramirez high up in the order for most of the year when it was apparent he did not have it.What would the harm have been dropping Ramirez to the eighth or ninth spot until he showed some prolonged signs of life? I hope it doesn't take Cora 90 percent of the season to eventually move a guy down who is struggling and hurting the team.
 

charlieoscar

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Yes, rock and hardplace. Hanley left well over 200 men on base last year. It has to be among the highest in baseball for the for PAs or number of chances or however you want to calculate. I just don't want him here at all but I don't see how you can DFA him and the $22M. DD HAS to get a little something in return.
Really? While he may have left 265 men on base, he hit with no one on more often than average.

Percent of Plate Appearances with Bases Empty
47.92% -- Hanley Ramirez
44.54% - BOS
43.16% - AL
43.35% - NL
43.31% - MLB

Source: Retrosheet Game Logs and bb-ref.com
 

lexrageorge

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The presence of Hanley Ramirez should have no bearing on whether the Sox sign JD Martinez, other than perhaps the payroll implications in 2018. If JDM can come at a cost and term that the Sox find bearable, and if the team thinks JDM can improve the team, then they should sign him.

If Boras insists on 7 years and $210M, then I have no problem with the Sox saying no.
 

Stanley Steamer

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So, if JDM is essentially "Ramirez Insurance" the whole thing falls apart. Now you need to hope Hanley starts out well and becomes a trade chip that brings back something good.

It's all a Catch-22 to me. A "good" Hanley negates an expensive JDM. A team without JDM makes a "bad" Hanley unworkable. A team with JDM means Hanley's unlikely to prove he's a good trade piece.

What's the best option?
Good post. I think this explains it all, so there mightn't be any need to rehash this over the next several weeks.
As I read somewhere recently, this gives DD and the Sox leverage going forward. They can opt not to sign JDM, or wait until his terms become palatable to them. I would prefer they bring him in, despite what it may mean to Hanley, but am prepared for them to pass. In which case, I think they will pick up someone else, and it's likely to appear as underwhelming as re-signing Moreland has.
I think the Red Sox biggest signing of the offseason will be Alex Cora.
 

smallball

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I keep hearing this. He was 17th out of 21 in scoops among qualified 1b last year. Last among free agents.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

I'm sure he's good defensively by metrics the Red Sox use, but he doesn't stand out here.
And great defense at first doesn't come close to making up for crappy 1b offense as evidence of his 5 career WAR.

I do believe he'll earn his contract, but don't believe he was signed for any other reason than to foil Boras' grand plans of ridiculous contracts.

A healthy Moreland is worth what, another 1/2 to 1 win over last year?
I like this signing and can't believe that people who dismiss the importance of defense at first actually watch the games. Time after time Moreland saved throws from SS and third from flying into the dugout.
Seems like no big deal when a competent first baseman turns a 3-6-3 d.p. or flips the ball to the pitcher covering first on a slow roller ... until some butcher trips over the bag or sends the pitcher stumbling into the baserunner. I'll take Moreland along with whatever defensive metric they want to hang on him.
 

grimshaw

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Seems like no big deal when a competent first baseman turns a 3-6-3 d.p. or flips the ball to the pitcher covering first on a slow roller ... until some butcher trips over the bag or sends the pitcher stumbling into the baserunner. I'll take Moreland along with whatever defensive metric they want to hang on him.
Mitch Moreland started 6 double plays last year. Mark Reynolds turned 18.
Hanley Ramirez also started 6 double plays in his one full season.

Look- there's strong evidence he's a very good fielder, but the importance of fielding for a 1st baseman is very much secondary to their bat. It's a luxury if they're good. And it's not like they have a recent history of butchers either. Youk, Gonzalez, and Napoli were all competent to very good but they also knocked the snot out of the ball.

The median amount of chances for qualified 1st baseman last year was about 125.
For a 2b it was 220, for SS 235, and for 3b it was around 175.
That's not taking into account the majority of plays throws are involved for other fielders and not involved for 1st basemen.

It's the toughest position to impact by far in the field which is why the bat needs to be really great.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mitch Moreland started 6 double plays last year. Mark Reynolds turned 18.
Hanley Ramirez also started 6 double plays in his one full season.

Look- there's strong evidence he's a very good fielder, but the importance of fielding for a 1st baseman is very much secondary to their bat. It's a luxury if they're good. And it's not like they have a recent history of butchers either. Youk, Gonzalez, and Napoli were all competent to very good but they also knocked the snot out of the ball.

The median amount of chances for qualified 1st baseman last year was about 125.
For a 2b it was 220, for SS 235, and for 3b it was around 175.
That's not taking into account the majority of plays throws are involved for other fielders and not involved for 1st basemen.

It's the toughest position to impact by far in the field which is why the bat needs to be really great.
They turned x number of double plays in how many possible scenarios to actually turn double plays? If Betts made 5000 catches in RF last season and JBJ only made 500 but 7500 balls were hit into RF and 505 balls were hit to CF.... that would be a different story.
Just a weird number to toss out....
 

simplicio

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Good post. I think this explains it all, so there mightn't be any need to rehash this over the next several weeks.
As I read somewhere recently, this gives DD and the Sox leverage going forward. They can opt not to sign JDM, or wait until his terms become palatable to them. I would prefer they bring him in, despite what it may mean to Hanley, but am prepared for them to pass. In which case, I think they will pick up someone else, and it's likely to appear as underwhelming as re-signing Moreland has.
I think the Red Sox biggest signing of the offseason will be Alex Cora.
Agreed. I made a case for Todd Frazier in the Reasonable thread. He could get time between third and DH, and his bat fits Fenway as well as just about anyone in baseball if we're looking for a cheap source of home runs.
 

lexrageorge

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To those that don't like the signing, I'll add that I don't think anyone is claiming that Moreland is the best 1B in the league. He's better than average in the field, worse than average at bat, although the gap at the plate is less if you remove his injury-induced slump last season.

The issue is the alternatives. The difference between Moreland and Hosmer is not worth nearly the $20M+ AAV that the latter will command. Hanley couldn't play first most of last season, and I have serious doubts his shoulder will be any better in 2018.

Sometimes you have no choice but to go into the season with a slightly below average player at a specific position or two. At this AAV, however, it's not a big deal, as it's truly a rounding error as far as the Sox are concerned.
 

joe dokes

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To those that don't like the signing, I'll add that I don't think anyone is claiming that Moreland is the best 1B in the league. He's better than average in the field, worse than average at bat, although the gap at the plate is less if you remove his injury-induced slump last season.

The issue is the alternatives. The difference between Moreland and Hosmer is not worth nearly the $20M+ AAV that the latter will command. Hanley couldn't play first most of last season, and I have serious doubts his shoulder will be any better in 2018.

Sometimes you have no choice but to go into the season with a slightly below average player at a specific position or two. At this AAV, however, it's not a big deal, as it's truly a rounding error as far as the Sox are concerned.
It's also part of a bigger picture in which they are probably expecting (not unreasonably) two of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley and Benintendi to be better than they were in 2017, and none of them to be worse.
 

grimshaw

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They turned x number of double plays in how many possible scenarios to actually turn double plays? If Betts made 5000 catches in RF last season and JBJ only made 500 but 7500 balls were hit into RF and 505 balls were hit to CF.... that would be a different story.
Just a weird number to toss out....
Does a bad first baseman like Hanley only start 4 of the 6 last year? It just makes so little difference over the course of a season is the main point.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Does a bad first baseman like Hanley only start 4 of the 6 last year? It just makes so little difference over the course of a season is the main point.
Here are the numbers for selected first baseman from the Fielding Bible stats on billjames.com:

Moreland:
2017: +11 runs, 5/14 on possible DPs.
2016: +7 runs, 5/17
2015: +4, 4/8

Hosmer:
2017: -9 runs, 1/9 on possible DPs
2016: -15 runs, 8/18
2015: -3, 6/15

Hanley:
2017: 0 runs, 0/0 on possible DPs in 146 innings played
2016: -4 runs, 3/7

Goldschmidt:
2017: +7 runs, 6/11 possible DPs
2016: +2 runs, 17/27
2015: +17 runs, 10/19

Rizzo:
2017: +11 runs, 10/25 possible DPs
2016: +13, 9/20
2015: +8, 6/15

Votto:
2017: +14 runs, 9/13 possible DPs
2016: -15, 6/26
2015: +5, 11/22

Gurriel:
2017: -3 runs, 10/16 possible DPs

Zimmerman:
2017: -8 runs, 4/10 possible DPs
2016: -1, 3/5
2015: -3, 6/8

Cabrera:
2017: -5 runs, 5/17 possible DPs
2016: -10, 15/24
2015: +4 runs, 6/13

Davis:
2017: -2 runs, 8/21 possible DPs
2016: +5 runs, 8/13
2015: +3, 5/14

They have Moreland's +11 runs last year tied with Rizzo for second in this group, behind only Votto. But they have Votto as a terrible -15 runs in 2016. By these stats, Moreland is one of the best defensive first basemen around over the last 3 years, despite not being particularly great at converting DP opportunities.

FB scored Moreland as +3 going to his right, +5 straight on, and +2 going to his left last year, and +11 on grounders, +1 on balls in the air, with the +11 runs overall. So positive in all areas, no real weaknesses, very good overall.

Interesting that FB has Hosmer as one of the worst defensive first basemen around-- much worse than Hanley was in 2016, for example. I wonder if the Red Sox use fielding numbers that are similar to these.
 

Sampo Gida

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Really? While he may have left 265 men on base, he hit with no one on more often than average.

Percent of Plate Appearances with Bases Empty
47.92% -- Hanley Ramirez
44.54% - BOS
43.16% - AL
43.35% - NL
43.31% - MLB

Source: Retrosheet Game Logs and bb-ref.com
The percentage of runners he drove in last year was 8% per BP's OBI%, near the bottom of players with 300+ PA.. League average is 14% Betts was at 19%, XB 14%. Hanley defined anti-clutch last year.
 

smallball

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The percentage of runners he drove in last year was 8% per BP's OBI%, near the bottom of players with 300+ PA.. League average is 14% Betts was at 19%, XB 14%. Hanley defined anti-clutch last year.
I'm no Hanley apologist, but didn't he hit some big, late HRs against the MFY's, and wasn't he one of the few guys to hit in the playoffs? My problem is he doesn't seem able to focus in mundane situations.
 

sean1562

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So Alonso got 2/16 with an $8 million vesting option. I would rather have Moreland for two at 13 than Alonso at that price
 

MikeM

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So Alonso got 2/16 with an $8 million vesting option. I would rather have Moreland for two at 13 than Alonso at that price
More then I thought he'd get. But Alonso was also one of my least favorite Moreland upgrades, and it still doesn't make me feel any better about the gift contract DD handed out way to early.

"Neither" at that price was still the correct answer there imo.
 

moondog80

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Alonso has had an OBP over .360 two of the last three seasons. Moreland’s career high is .330. If those are the only choices, give me Alonso for an extra 3 mil every day.
 

sean1562

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But his slugging was terrible and he is a worse defender. His floor is lower than moreland’s for sure and their ceilings are about the same.
 

moondog80

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But his slugging was terrible and he is a worse defender. His floor is lower than moreland’s for sure and their ceilings are about the same.
Alonso slugged .501 last year, Moreland .443. Granted, it was a career high for Alonso and perhaps not repeatable, but it's still a datapoint and it counts for something. Alonso was a much better signing.
 

chawson

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Alonso can't hit sliders, and I think the league has figured that out.

Alonso hit .123 with a .169 slugging vs. sliders in 2017.
Moreland .267 with a .493 slugging vs. sliders in 2017.

Slider usage is up around the league as bullpens have gotten better. The Yankees as a team have thrown more than anyone in baseball the last three years—26 percent of pitches over the last three years. And an inordinate percentage of the best sliders in baseball are in the AL East. Betances, Giles, Archer, O'Day, Severino, Gray, Warren, Sabathia, Stroman, Osuna and Tanaka all throw it a lot.

That's just one small factor among many, but I think we made the right choice.
 

grimshaw

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Alonso slugged .501 last year, Moreland .443. Granted, it was a career high for Alonso and perhaps not repeatable, but it's still a datapoint and it counts for something. Alonso was a much better signing.
While I think Alonso is better and has been steadier over his career they have essentially performed the same over the past three seasons. They both had their two best years sandwiched between an awful one. One hits better, and one fields a lot better. Alonso also played in Oakland and San Diego and Moreland in Texas so I'll bet his overall numbers would have lapped Moreland's last year playing in the AL East ballparks so much.

I have no idea why Moreland had to get a second year being two years older than Alonso. There wasn't a peep about teams interest in him. I'm convinced they threw 6.5 extra million down the toilet because DD got too hasty. The strategy was fine - but the extra year seemed like he jumped the gun.
 
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chawson

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I think the second year helps. As flush as the first base market is this offseason, it’s fairly barren next year.

If he has a totally reasonable .260/.350/.450 2018 and enters a market with only Mauer and Smoak, he’d sure get more than 1/$6.5M.
 

moondog80

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I think the second year helps. As flush as the first base market is this offseason, it’s fairly barren next year.

If he has a totally reasonable .260/.350/.450 2018 and enters a market with only Mauer and Smoak, he’d sure get more than 1/$6.5M.
You think it’s reasonable that he has an OBP 20 points higher than his previous career best (not including the 173 PA he had in 2010)? Reasonable would be .325.
 

Cellar-Door

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On Alonso, he also got a vesting 3rd year for another 8M. I definitely wouldn't want 3/24 for him over 2/13 for Moreland
 

MikeM

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I think the second year helps. As flush as the first base market is this offseason, it’s fairly barren next year.

If he has a totally reasonable .260/.350/.450 2018 and enters a market with only Mauer and Smoak, he’d sure get more than 1/$6.5M.
Moreland hasn't posted an OBP higher then .330 since his shortened rookie season in 2010, and has one career year .800ops to his credit.

That projection isn't being totally reasonable imo. IF DD didn't exist as a GM willing to overlook his offensive upside and overpay him on his defense, he's probably not finding any $5-6m/per interest out there either. At least outside the always reliable "unnamed mystery team" added into last year's after-the-fact fluff pieces, which I'm guessing we'll be hearing about in the second round of those latter. Especially in the event we don't end up adding another noteworthy bat.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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You think it’s reasonable that he has an OBP 20 points higher than his previous career best (not including the 173 PA he had in 2010)? Reasonable would be .325.
The man broke his toe!

He was hitting .285/.382/.495 beforehand. So, maybe I do.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Aug 12, 2010
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Alonso's career line prior to 2017: .269/.334/.387, wRC+ of 102, 39 HR in 2343 PA (60.1 PA/HR), 3.3 WAR over parts of 7 seasons. With a dearth of HR last year being a problem, that's a player the 2018 Red Sox would want zero to do with. Obviously, 2017 was vastly different (.266/.365/.501, 132 wRC+, 18.6 PA/HR). But I wouldn't want to hitch my 1B wagon to him, even at the same price as Moreland. You run a pretty good risk of getting worse power production from 1B, when we'd like to upgrade there. I'd have visions of the 2017 3B fiasco - except there's no Rafael Devers in AA. If you're comfortable with benching your starting 1B partway through the season and rolling with Hanley and Sam Travis there, it's a safe bet. I wouldn't be. If Martinez is added to the current roster, then I could see taking that gamble (in the event of a pre-2017 Alonso, Hanley would see the majority of 1B PA, with JDM at DH). Logan Morrison (pre-2017: .245/.325/.416, 32.8 PA/HR) is a similar story to that of Alonso. It's hard to be any more confident that they'd be an improvement over 2017 Moreland, rather than a step down, regardless of how the contracts play out.
 

MikeM

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It's hard to be any more confident that they'd be an improvement over 2017 Moreland, rather than a step down, regardless of how the contracts play out.
People keep pointing this out while completely steering away from the flip side fact that Moreland sets the baseline bar there extremely low. So even in the event you do miss on 2017 upside Player X it's not like you'd otherwise be left sitting pretty with some huge net gain out of a guy who arguably doesn't even offer the possibility of league average offense over a full season. Nor does the backup salvage plan of shifting Moreland into a platoon look any better either, given outside 2015 his sub-.800ops splits against RHP are nothing to write home about.

The name of the game going in to this off-season was Add More Offense, and we are ultimately left losing either way in the above scenario. Re-signing Moreland essentially just serves to strip the higher offensive ceiling possibility completely out of the equation, and all but ensures that we can probably bump last year's deadline thread when the time comes since a lot of the content is going to pick back up right where it left off. With a best case scenario at this point that sees the rest of the guys like Morrison/Duda/Lind sign with non-contenders, so at least they'll be up for reasonable trade discussion.
 

tonyarmasjr

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People keep pointing this out while completely steering away from the flip side fact that Moreland sets the baseline bar there extremely low. So even in the event you do miss on 2017 upside Player X it's not like you'd otherwise be left sitting pretty with some huge net gain out of a guy who arguably doesn't even offer the possibility of league average offense over a full season. Nor does the backup salvage plan of shifting Moreland into a platoon look any better either, given outside 2015 his sub-.800ops splits against RHP are nothing to write home about.

The name of the game going in to this off-season was Add More Offense, and we are ultimately left losing either way in the above scenario. Re-signing Moreland essentially just serves to strip the higher offensive ceiling possibility completely out of the equation, and all but ensures that we can probably bump last year's deadline thread when the time comes since a lot of the content is going to pick back up right where it left off. With a best case scenario at this point that sees the rest of the guys like Morrison/Duda/Lind sign with non-contenders, so at least they'll be up for reasonable trade discussion.
I know you and I differ on Moreland, but I do think he offers more upside than you give him credit for. He hasn't done it over a full season, but the .285/.382/.495, 128 wRC+ he posted prior to breaking his toe last year is that upside. It's just as good as the career years of Alonso and Morrison. I don't know that he can do it over a full year (or two), but I do expect him to outperform his career numbers to some extent due to the fact that Fenway appears to suit him quite nicely. As for a floor, I think the name of the game this offseason is Add More Offense with Power, which is slightly different than Add More Offense. So Moreland's floor has to look something like his 2016, with a .422 SLG and 22 HR. Before 2017, Alonso and Morrison combined had one season of 20+ HR. There is a significant chance of losing power from the 1B position by going with one of those guys, while the difference in ceiling between them and Moreland is minimal, imo.

Now, there are other guys who may be better options, but I don't believe Alonso (or Morrison) is that guy. Duda and Frazier would probably be a marginal upgrade with a little more pop. They also made more money last year than Moreland just signed for. It remains to be seen what their markets will be. (I voted for waiting it out and signing whoever loses out on musical chairs, but you do risk losing out altogether or getting into a bidding war for the last one standing.) Santana is certainly better, but at 4/$60M and a QO? Bruce is not an infielder, but I still think is intriguing depending on his price tag and willingness to play 1B. Even now, if JD Martinez does not come to pass, Bruce (OF/DH) or Frazier (3B/DH) could be a decent option as a rotational piece. You've made it clear you hate the Moreland signing. Whom should they have signed and at what price?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
I was curious about whether Moreland has had any characteristic in-season "arc" to speak of. And it turns out that he does. He's been in the league just long enough that his month-by-month splits have samples approximately the size of full seasons. And there's a completely Jekyll/Hyde arc to them. Moreland is two players: an April/May guy with a typical slash around .270/.340/.480 and a wRC+ around 115. Then there's the July guy with a .220/.280/.360 slash and wRC+ in the 60s. June is a transition month (.250/.310/.470). The April/May guy comes back in August, but then the July guy comes back with a vengeance in September. It's worth noting that the June and July guys have significantly fewer PA than the early- and late-season guys--this could be due to injury, performance-driven benching, or a combination of the two.

This pattern suggests a guy who runs out of steam midseason, rallies in August after some time off, and then completely craps out down the stretch. Is it possible there's a conditioning issue here? And if so, is it possible the Sox think they can get on top of it? A full season of the April-May offense, with Moreland's defense, is a 3-win player, a major bargain at $6.5M/year.
 

sean1562

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Sep 17, 2011
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IDK if I am going to put much hope in a 32 year old Mitch Moreland being able to maintain himself better than he ever has before. Considering his career bWAR is 6.9, I think a 2 WAR season is the best we are gonna get from this guy