Role of Marco Hernandez

[AlNipper49]

They were talking about this during the game yesterday and browsing through the sites this morning there have been a few articles written on his role. Farrell likes him a ton but he unfortunately hits from the same side of the plate as Holt and Rutledge.

He could be trade fodder, but at this point of the season it doesn't look like he'd get much beyond a high risk project.

 

[johnnywayback]

Rutledge is a RHH, which, I think, is why Hernandez probably starts the year in Pawtucket. That and the fact that Farrell really likes Rutledge (something I remember reading back when they grabbed him in the Rule 5 draft).

If Sandoval bounces back and winds up being a solid starting 3B, you wonder whether Holt becomes a trade candidate -- with four OF ahead of him on the depth chart and Pedroia entrenched at 2B, there isn't much of a need for a supersub as there might be elsewhere, and we are notably low on trade chips in the event that we need to go get someone mid-season.

 

[pokey_reese]

He must have seen your post, because he hit another two doubles today. I do think that Marco is a great option to have in the system, and agree that he might be good enough insurance to render Holt expendable.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Hernandez has been the camp story, 4.0 to first, outstanding defense at second and adequate at short and third. Coaches compare his swing to Bernie Williams. They got him for Felix Doubront when Jared Porter was overseeing pro scouting. Porter then went to the Cubs, and now is with Mike Hazen in Arizona. Gammo

4.0 speed is pretty darn great: http://forum.soxprospects.com/post/247715

Think Holt would be more likely to be discussed in trades at this point, especially with him now at 2 million and probably doubling that each of the next two years.

 

[AB in DC]

Let's pump the brakes a bit on Holt. His value now is to be both backup IF and backup OF in one roster spot. That's not a role that Hernandez or Rutledge can fill right now.

Trade Holt, and you basically have to drop the idea of having Chris Young in a regular DH platoon vs. LHPs.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Bill James loves Marco Hernandez. He wrote this last October (it may be behind a paywall):

Question: Has there ever been a better group of young 3B's than Bryant, Machado, Donaldson and Arenado?

Bill James: Josh Donaldson is 30, turns 31 in December. Not young. I know you will think this is crazy, but I am not sure I would trade the Red Sox' Marco Hernandez for any of those guys. I have been waiting since the opening day of spring training for Marco Hernandez to do something I wasn't impressed with, and I'm still waiting. He is way faster than any of those guys. May not have the arm to play third every day; I haven't seen enough of him at third to be sure. But everything else is good."

That is what I would call a rave review, even assuming that he was just exaggerating with the "not sure I'd trade him for these superstars" hyperbole.

 

[moondog80]

Bill James loves Marco Hernandez. He wrote this last October (it may be behind a paywall):

Question: Has there ever been a better group of young 3B's than Bryant, Machado, Donaldson and Arenado?

Bill James: Josh Donaldson is 30, turns 31 in December. Not young. I know you will think this is crazy, but I am not sure I would trade the Red Sox' Marco Hernandez for any of those guys. I have been waiting since the opening day of spring training for Marco Hernandez to do something I wasn't impressed with, and I'm still waiting. He is way faster than any of those guys. May not have the arm to play third every day; I haven't seen enough of him at third to be sure. But everything else is good."

That is what I would call a rave review, even assuming that he was just exaggerating with the "not sure I'd trade him for these superstars" hyperbole.

Yeah that's insane. I don't even know what do with that other than question my opinion of Bill James.

 

[nvalvo]

I'm not quite with Bill James on Marco — I'd be happy to deal him for the reigning NL MVP LOL — but I also think he's a really impressive prospect, with serious speed (which make his BABIPs look sustainable) and good hit/power tools. The power hasn't played at the big league level, but he's put up more respectable ISOs in the minors (and in Spring Training!). He was an unheralded prospect in the context of a Cubs' system historically deep in IF talent. The plate discipline is lagging, but even that isn't all that bad; last year he improved both his K% and BB%.

If that progress reflects a new baseline, you'd have to conclude he's better than Holt today.

I think Holt gets one more season in Boston, with Marco in AAA. I wouldn't mind seeing them give him some time in the corner OF spots in AAA, to see if he can replace Holt's versatility.

Rutledge should make the roster as a rough platoon mate with Sandoval, who's slugging .700+ against righties, but has shown less against lefties.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Let's pump the brakes a bit on Holt. His value now is to be both backup IF and backup OF in one roster spot. That's not a role that Hernandez or Rutledge can fill right now.

Trade Holt, and you basically have to drop the idea of having Chris Young in a regular DH platoon vs. LHPs.

I don't think that's true. The problem here is with Rutledge's defensive limitations as much as it is with Hernandez or Holt.

In theory, at least, a bench of Young, Hernandez, Selsky, and Vazquez would be able to cover each of the positions on the field defensively. At least as long as Benintendi can shift over to CF and allow Young or Selsky to play LF.

Essentially, the Sox can explore Holt's trade value without any net loss to the MLB club, if Hernandez plus Selsky is equivalent to what Rutledge plus Holt can provide off the bench.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I will be surprised if they break camp with Rutledge rather than Marco. Marco seems to be playing every day, and producing, while Rutledge is filling in as much as anything. Marco's future is brighter than Rutledge, the definition of a replacement player, and his speed adds something that Rutledge doesn't possess.

 

[grimshaw]

Essentially, the Sox can explore Holt's trade value without any net loss to the MLB club, if Hernandez plus Selsky is equivalent to what Rutledge plus Holt can provide off the bench.

They aren't going to move Holt to make room for a guy who will be lucky to get 150 ab's this year. They need as many flexible position players as possible with the sorry position player depth they have right now.

Rutledge and Selsky have zero value, and if they get meaningful playing time, that's not a good thing. Holt and Hernandez make the team better.

 

[AB in DC]

They aren't going to move Holt to make room for a guy who will be lucky to get 150 ab's this year. They need as many flexible position players as possible with the sorry position player depth they have right now.

Rutledge and Selsky have zero value, and if they get meaningful playing time, that's not a good thing. Holt and Hernandez make the team better.

I just saw that Selsky still has options, so there's really no reason to put him on the 25-man roster over Holt this year. Keep him in Pawtucket as an injury replacement- maybe he'll grow into an OF/1B platoon role in 2018 if the Sox don't re-sign Young.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

They aren't going to move Holt to make room for a guy who will be lucky to get 150 ab's this year. They need as many flexible position players as possible with the sorry position player depth they have right now.

Rutledge and Selsky have zero value, and if they get meaningful playing time, that's not a good thing. Holt and Hernandez make the team better.

I think you're overstating the "sorry position player depth" problem.

No team can weather long-term injuries to several of its stars all at once, and the Red Sox are no exception.

In 2004, the Red Sox had Kevin Youkilis and Kelly Shoppach as top hitting prospects waiting in the wings with any experience above A-ball. In 2007, the Red Sox only really had Jacoby Ellsbury. In 2013, the Red Sox had an embarrassment of riches in the trifecta of Xander Bogaerts and Jose Iglesias and Jackie Bradley.

This year, fortunately, there's Swihart and Travis and Hernandez. That's not bad depth.

 

[Rasputin]

This year, fortunately, there's Swihart and Travis and Hernandez. That's not bad depth.

I don't know about you all, but I don't know that "depth" is really the right word for Swihart and Travis. Sure, it's true enough for now, but if they haven't earned their way onto the big club by the end of the year--even without injuries to those ahead of them--I'm going to be a little disappointed.

 

[grimshaw]

I think you're overstating the "sorry position player depth" problem.

No team can weather long-term injuries to several of its stars all at once, and the Red Sox are no exception.

This year, fortunately, there's Swihart and Travis and Hernandez. That's not bad depth.

I should have specified that I meant OF depth more than other positions, but keeping their best two utility guys was my main point.

 

[Rasputin]

I should have specified that I meant OF depth more than other positions, but keeping their best two utility guys was my main point.

I think our OF depth is actually pretty decent. It's just that it's all on the major league club. We've got at least three guys who can play CF without being a disaster and if we had to go an extended period without one of our OFers, a Holt/Young platoon wouldn't be terrible.

 

[Rasputin]

Nevermind, dupe. Goddamn POS internet you get when you live in the boonies.

 

[The Boomer]

Hernandez has the best hit tool of the bench players and is about as good defensively as Holt in the infield. His only deficit compared to Holt is his lack of OF experience. However, tutoring him in the majors while he observes the 4 defensively plus outfielders ahead of him might add this to his repertoire. He has two other virtues as a bench player. He will get some ABs as a decent pinch hitter when needed. Most importantly, he might be the best pinch runner who can also credibly play in the field since Dave Roberts. The Sox add a speed guy most years when they seriously contend. This year, they could have a reserve capable of stealing bases from day one if they keep him.

 

[shaggydog2000]

Hernandez has the best hit tool of the bench players and is about as good defensively as Holt in the infield. His only deficit compared to Holt is his lack of OF experience. However, tutoring him in the majors while he observes the 4 defensively plus outfielders ahead of him might add this to his repertoire. He has two other virtues as a bench player. He will get some ABs as a decent pinch hitter when needed. Most importantly, he might be the best pinch runner who can also credibly play in the field since Dave Roberts. The Sox add a speed guy most years when they seriously contend. This year, they could have a reserve capable of stealing bases from day one if they keep him.

He had 5 stolen bases in his 404 AB in AAA, and 4 stolen bases in 282 AB in AA. I don't expect stealing bases to suddenly become a big part of his game if he's never done it in the upper minors. Don't let one comment from Gammo color your whole opinion of the dude, his scouting reports suggest he doesn't use his speed well (fangraphs), or just doesn't note him as being exceptionally fast (soxprospects). I think his bat is more impactful than his legs, enough to be a solid bench player and pinch hitter like you noted.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

He had 5 stolen bases in his 404 AB in AAA, and 4 stolen bases in 282 AB in AA. I don't expect stealing bases to suddenly become a big part of his game if he's never done it in the upper minors. Don't let one comment from Gammo color your whole opinion of the dude, his scouting reports suggest he doesn't use his speed well (fangraphs), or just doesn't note him as being exceptionally fast (soxprospects). I think his bat is more impactful than his legs, enough to be a solid bench player and pinch hitter like you noted.

Farrell used Hernandez as the team's PR last September, over Moncada. That's why he was included on the ALDS roster, too.

I would suggest those are more meaningful data points about how the Sox view his speed and utility as a baserunner, than either his raw milb SB numbers, or commentary from scouts/Gammo.

 

[charlieoscar]

They aren't going to move Holt to make room for a guy who will be lucky to get 150 ab's this year.

Wouldn't moving Holt open up more AB chances for someone else? Besides, in 2014 and 2015 Holt made more starts in the IF than he did in the OF (63/42 and 85/30) and while he appeared in LF in 64 games last year, only 55 were starts and only 37 were complete games.

Holt is definitely a versatile player but Hernandez is five years younger, thus less expensive; faster; and I think may offer more offense. Unfortunately (in my point-of-view), Hernandez may have the higher trade value.

 

[shaggydog2000]

Farrell used Hernandez as the team's PR last September, over Moncada. That's why he was included on the ALDS roster, too.

I would suggest those are more meaningful data points about how the Sox view his speed and utility as a baserunner, than either his raw milb SB numbers, or commentary from scouts/Gammo.

His baserunning score on fangraphs is pretty good in a small sample size, so maybe they do trust him as a runner. But are they really going to be using a pinch runner all that much this year? Almost everyone on the team now are good base runners. No more David Ortiz or Manny. Who would you pinch run for? Hanley maybe, but he's still a decent runner. Sandoval seems likely. Leon or Vazquez, but then you'd probably just pinch hit for them in the first place if you feel like you would pull them if they got on. And if you want a guy to steal a base, it's clearly not Hernandez. So I think his bat is going to be his most important feature by quite a bit.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Leon or Vazquez, but then you'd probably just pinch hit for them in the first place if you feel like you would pull them if they got on.

This might be true for Vazquez, who seems if anything worse at hitting than at running, but in the case of Leon, if he can be the kind of .700-ish hitter a lot of us are hoping he can, I think it might very well turn out to be true that you gain more in terms of run expectancy by pinch-running for him once he's on than you do by pinch-hitting for him (assuming that the available pinch-hitters are the Sox' likely bench players this year).

 

[shaggydog2000]

This might be true for Vazquez, who seems if anything worse at hitting than at running, but in the case of Leon, if he can be the kind of .700-ish hitter a lot of us are hoping he can, I think it might very well turn out to be true that you gain more in terms of run expectancy by pinch-running for him once he's on than you do by pinch-hitting for him (assuming that the available pinch-hitters are the Sox' likely bench players this year).

Yeah, in the end I think it's going to take a few months to figure out if Hernandez is or isn't a better hitter than Leon, and that is only if Hernandez even makes the team and gets a decent number of at-bats, which I doubt is all that likely with Holt the first choice backup for all the same spots.

 

[simplicio]

He'll be up tomorrow, as Xander goes on the bereavement list.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/04/06/red-sox-to-place-xander-bogaerts-on-bereavement-list-prior-to-series-with-tigers/