Romo Replacing Simms in CBS Booth: Praise All Gods!!!

InstaFace

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How is that possible - doesn't the NFL as a league make under $10B?
Lose's answer is far more entertaining, but if you're asking for realsies: the league brought in $13.2B last season, which is ~$412M per team. Let's say the Patriots are a little better than average and come in at an even $500M. The salary cap was $155M. Operating costs and the league's socialism policies and overhead are significant, but let's assume Kraft is a decent businessman and has a 25% margin, so he's making $125M per year.

The rate of growth in those revenues is relevant here: league revenue was $8.9B in 2010, so we've had a CAGR of 7% recently. Let's assume margins have held steady. Let's also ignore fancy debt structures that could goose returns to equity.

So what we're talking about valuing is an asset that is bringing in $125M annually, with a lot of it tax-shielded due to stadium depreciation and other fancy-pants tactics, and growing at 7% per year. This is a highly illiquid asset with concentrated ownership, of course, but given the current equity risk premium in the markets, you'd probably peg their discount rate at being around 9-10%. Let's be conservative and say 10%. The Gordon Growth Model would say that asset is then worth $125M / (10% - 7%) = $4.16B.

Do I think profits can grow at 7% into infinity? No, but when you're talking about something with a lot of speculative value attached and where you only need to take the high bid as a value (rather than some market-clearing price), it's not hard to get into multiple billions here.
 

bakahump

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Senator Donut

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Romo was excellent in his debut. I only caught what was on Red Zone, but someone threw together a clip of him predicting the play calls.

 

TFisNEXT

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Sounds like their gamble to go straight to "A" team paid off. Simms had turned into a disaster in recent years anyway, so in that light, it probably wasn't that big of a gamble. But good for Romo that he passed with flying colors after week 1.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Sounds like Romo was great. i didn't really like the reasoning on that second clip about how he knows it all since he was in football for 14 years. I'm not going to judge him and say he's arrogant based off of one Twitter clip show though.
 

Sox and Rocks

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I watched most of that game, and Romo was terrific. The most impressive was him diagnosing plays in real time, as the above clip notes, but he also provided excellent analysis after plays. He provided more actual insight than any other NFL broadcast I can remember.

To nitpick, his delivery was a bit awkward, but I assume that's simply first game jitters and not having a rapport with Nance yet. I expect that to go away over time.

And, for his first game, he already surpassed Simms at Simms' best.
 

Bergs

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I watched most of that game, and Romo was terrific. The most impressive was him diagnosing plays in real time, as the above clip notes, but he also provided excellent analysis after plays. He provided more actual insight than any other NFL broadcast I can remember.

To nitpick, his delivery was a bit awkward, but I assume that's simply first game jitters and not having a rapport with Nance yet. I expect that to go away over time.

And, for his first game, he already surpassed Simms at Simms' best.
Yeah, but was he folksy enough?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I watched most of that game, and Romo was terrific. The most impressive was him diagnosing plays in real time, as the above clip notes, but he also provided excellent analysis after plays. He provided more actual insight than any other NFL broadcast I can remember.

To nitpick, his delivery was a bit awkward, but I assume that's simply first game jitters and not having a rapport with Nance yet. I expect that to go away over time.

And, for his first game, he already surpassed Simms at Simms' best.
The former players/coaches can be great in the booth with this stuff (I forever have a mental block with him now but once upon a time I'd have used Collinsworth as an example here), or they can be a total Gruden and just rah-rah through the whole game with useless platitudes about grit. Good to add one of the former to the mix, even though he's not exactly replacing one of the latter—Simms was his own odd duck closer to the McCarver mold.
 

trekfan55

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From the clips (and it may not be the complete picture I know) I liked his style and his predictions. But that exchange: "What did you see?" and his answer "I have seen football in the NFL for 14 years" was horrible. He did adapt and explain some of his reads later on.
 

reggiecleveland

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Ironically his predictions take away a lot of the 'Football is rocket science complex and every team has its own set of masterminds" image they want to portray. His predictions indicate most teams do a lot of stuff the same way, and it is maybe not quite 4 dimensional chess
 

Marciano490

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Ironically his predictions take away a lot of the 'Football is rocket science complex and every team has its own set of masterminds" image they want to portray. His predictions indicate most teams do a lot of stuff the same way, and it is maybe not quite 4 dimensional chess
In part, but I imagine he also spends particular time studying the two teams he's commentating on.

I've seen lots of guys who played in college or the NFL do the same stuff watching games at home, though.
 

Senator Donut

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Brees has been in NO for 12 years and only played 5 in SD?? Thats wild
Wow, that's wild. I remember watching Drew Brees play his first game in the dome with my Saints fan roommate and I can't believe that was 11 years ago. In comparison, his Rose Bowl appearance was 16 years ago but that feels ancient.

Think if Miami didn't take Culpepper instead??
Nick Saban might still be in Miami.
 

DourDoerr

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I listen to Simmons' podcast when walking my dogs and Cousin Sal had an interesting story about Romo. Sal and Jimmy Kimmel went to Romo's house in the off-season and Kimmel suggested Romo play some Madden to hear how those games are called as prep for his new job (sounds dubious to me). Romo thought it a good idea and immediately started playing.

He played at a top level online against some of the world's best players (don't play so I'm hazy on exactly the how's and please correct me if I'm wrong) and was super competitive. Romo would see the defenses chosen and then change his plays for consistent gains of 13 yards. He kept winning until he ran into some guy who had mastery of some fumble trick. Obviously, being fresh from the game, and a ex-QB to boot, gave him insight into Madden and Sunday's game. According to Sal, Romo didn't spend a minute paying attention to the game's announcers which is pretty funny. From what I heard during Sunday's game, it's probably best that he didn't.

Used to think Collinsworth was pretty good and now - a few years in - he seems in decline. I wonder how long it takes before color guys lose their fastball. I'd bet there's some sort of relationship to the amount of time since they retired along with the position they played and how hard they continue to work. Even Simms was refreshing when he first started. In any case, very happy to hear Romo's doing Pats' game - he's easily the best new color guy I've heard in a while.
 

tims4wins

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Exactly my thoughts on both Simms and Collinsworth. I really enjoyed Simms back in the early 2000s. Then he became a caricature. Same thing has happened with Collinsworth - he is still pretty good, but not close to the level as when he started. It seems like when these ex players first start, they spend a ton of time noticing the X's and O's, pointing out stuff we wouldn't notice, etc. And as their careers go along, they fall into more of the psychobabble type of analysis ("I looked Tom Brady in the eye").
 

Bosoxen

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Talk about going full circle. The splash screen on that video has him in a Jedi robe (though the video itself now appears to be down). Which is exactly how his playing career started out - with this meme kicking around when he became the starter over Bledsoe:

 

Dotrat

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Exactly my thoughts on both Simms and Collinsworth. I really enjoyed Simms back in the early 2000s. Then he became a caricature. Same thing has happened with Collinsworth - he is still pretty good, but not close to the level as when he started. It seems like when these ex players first start, they spend a ton of time noticing the X's and O's, pointing out stuff we wouldn't notice, etc. And as their careers go along, they fall into more of the psychobabble type of analysis ("I looked Tom Brady in the eye").
I also have fond memories of the days when Simms and Collinsworth both seemed focused on the game and offered insights that were fresh or interesting. In baseball, we all saw a similar decline with McCarver.

I wonder, then, is it complacency, like a slow ebb of curiosity about the game (which seems unlikely)? Is it producers and other network-suits types insisting that the growing popularity of the broadcast means that the 'color' guys need to pump up the stars of the game, talk in broader strokes and not be so analytical, and be sure to highlight 'human interest' narratives that have nothing to do with what's happening on the field?

In any case, it's both sad and kind of fascinating that the Simms and Collinsworths of the sports world initially distinguished themselves by being good analysts, became popular, and then, like a great band that sells out, found that the price of that popularity meant becoming almost the exact opposite of what made them worth hearing to begin with. (See Simmons, Bill)
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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100% agree with the comments on Collinsworth. He used to be really good, give strong breakdowns of what teams were doing and now it just feels...different. He'll comment something like, "watch Marcus Cannon here, he's been a rock for the Patriots" and then they show a replay where Cannon literally doesn't do anything. It's like they come up with 4 or 5 different stories before a game and stick to them, whether they're actually accurate or not doesn't actually matter. "Let me tell you, this Justin Houston is something special, just watch him here on this play..." (cut to Houston getting chipped by the RB and not get anywhere close to the QB).
 

soxhop411

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So uh. Anyone want to talk about his Nostradamus predictions during the Patriots OT game?

Dude would make an amazing DC.
 

Bowhemian

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So uh. Anyone want to talk about his Nostradamus predictions during the Patriots OT game?

Dude would make an amazing DC.
I am on record in this very forum as a Romo hater. He is terrible. But you are right, he nailed some plays. But the “ here we go” shit has got to stop
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Romo is my favorite national commentator for any sport outside of Nick Faldo for golf. His excitement for the game is so real. I feel like he’s in the living room watching the game with me while also providing a bunch of insightful analysis. The “here we go Jim” stuff is a feature not a bug for me.
 

Apisith

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I am still stunned at how he called nearly every Brady pass from the 4th quarter onwards. He was incredible.
 

dcmissle

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I missed out watching the whole game on mute. I’ll have to catch a replay.

Romo adds a ton of value.
 

SumnerH

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Romo is my favorite national commentator for any sport outside of Nick Faldo for golf. His excitement for the game is so real. I feel like he’s in the living room watching the game with me while also providing a bunch of insightful analysis. The “here we go Jim” stuff is a feature not a bug for me.
Yeah. He's sometimes wrong, but he's by far the most interesting announcer in the game; I just don't understand how anyone hates him, after suffering through Buck, Simms, Aikmann, Nantz, Gruden, McFarland, Schlereth, Gannon*, etc—he's not perfect, but the bar is so low that it's tough not to view him as a breath of fresh air compared to the alternatives.

*Also McCarver and Morgan, who need cross-sport scorn...
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Romo was essentially the perfect color guy late in this game. His "wellllll" and "oooohhh" shtick is tiresome but aside from that, he is excellent.