Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs

veritas

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I’ve been thinking about the lineup a bit. They have some decisions up front. Here’s how I think I would start for game 1.

Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - Kuhlman
Johansson - Coyle - Heinen
Nordstrom - Acciari - Wagner
They don't seem inclined to put Heinen back on the top line. I disagree, but given that restriction, I think this is their best bet.
 

TheRealness

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Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - Kuhlman
Johansson - Coyle - Heinen
Nordstrom - Acciari - Wagner
.
I agree. I was thinking originally Johansson would be on Krejci's right, but my Kuhlman love is well documented here since the preseason where he really stood out to me. I also agree Backes is too slow for this series. I like him as a player, but he could really be a problem against a fast team like Toronto.
 

RedOctober3829

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I agree. I was thinking originally Johansson would be on Krejci's right, but my Kuhlman love is well documented here since the preseason where he really stood out to me. I also agree Backes is too slow for this series. I like him as a player, but he could really be a problem against a fast team like Toronto.
I don't see a scenario where Backes plays against Tampa either if that materialized.
 
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I’ve been to 4playoff games. The first one was game 4 against the Whalers Bruins down 2-1 with no Bourque. Bruins were down 5-2 heading into the 3rd period. They didn’t even need OT as they scored 4 goals in the period to wi. It. And the last one was game 7 against the Leafs.
The infamous Dave Poulin game?
 

j44thor

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I don't see a scenario where Backes plays against Tampa either if that materialized.
I'll be shocked if Kuhlman plays over Backes. Not that I think it is the right move but Kuhlman is only up because of the injuries. I like his game but I think Backes gets the nod for at least game 1.
 

j44thor

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Wouldn't Backes' lack of speed hurt the team against these two clubs?
I think Bruce will value his playoff experience and go with the guys that got them where they are.
Lack of speed is more apparent on defense than wing against a fast team.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Kuhlman gets the start over Backes.
 

cshea

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I guess my issue with Backes is he can only really play on the 4th line. If he stays there, that means they would have to put Wagner up in the lineup and that idea doesn’t enthuse me too much either. In my opinion, Wagner is a 4th liner and if you move him out of that role he could lose his effectiveness. Toronto has guys like Kadri and Nylander on the 3rd line and I wouldn’t love Backes or Wagner against them. It is a small sample, but Kuhlman is the only winger they’ve tried that has shown an ability to play up and down the lineup. I’d start with him and adjust as necessary.

He’s sat Backes a few times this year already. I think he’d do it again.
 

veritas

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My worry with Kuhlman is that he doesn’t have an extra gear right now. He’s gone from NCAA to AHL to NHL in less than a year. His handful of NHL games I'm sure were played with a playoff intensity.

Another interesting lineup question to watch is the "4th" line usage. For most of the year, they were being used as a legitimate checking line, getting way more defensive zone starts than any other line, against tough competition. The defensive zone usage has definitely been decreased since Kuraly got hurt. And I think there's good reason for that. His transition ability is pretty critical to them being able to play in the D-zone.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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I’ve been to 4playoff games. The first one was game 4 against the Whalers Bruins down 2-1 with no Bourque. Bruins were down 5-2 heading into the 3rd period. They didn’t even need OT as they scored 4 goals in the period to wi. It. And the last one was game 7 against the Leafs.
I was a teamster working night shift in a grocery warehouse back then and we had a Canadiens fan co-worker busting our balls and acting really obnoxious the entire game. After the B's came back to win a bunch of guys shrunk wrap the Habs fan upside down to a pole and left him there until the supervisors found him and cut him down. Good times.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Must beat the mullet and the combover.

(Really just wanted an excuse to post this).

 

RedOctober3829

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Matt Porter put out his line predictions with and without Kuraly.

Marchand-Bergeron-Heinen
DeBrusk-Krejci-Pastrnak
Johanssen-Coyle-Kuhlman
Wagner-Acciari-Backes

with Kuraly
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
DeBrusk-Krejci-Kuhlman
Johanssen-Coyle-Heinen
Kuraly-Acciari-Wagner
 

Salem's Lot

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Matt Porter put out his line predictions with and without Kuraly.

Marchand-Bergeron-Heinen
DeBrusk-Krejci-Pastrnak
Johanssen-Coyle-Kuhlman
Wagner-Acciari-Backes

with Kuraly
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
DeBrusk-Krejci-Kuhlman
Johanssen-Coyle-Heinen
Kuraly-Acciari-Wagner
What am I missing here? What does replacing Backes with Kuraly on the fourth line have to do with who plays right wing on the other three lines? Wouldn’t they just pick a top 9 combination and go with it until it’s not working regardless of whether Kuraly or Backes is in the lineup on the 4th?
 

RedOctober3829

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What am I missing here? What does replacing Backes with Kuraly on the fourth line have to do with who plays right wing on the other three lines? Wouldn’t they just pick a top 9 combination and go with it until it’s not working regardless of whether Kuraly or Backes is in the lineup on the 4th?
Not sure. He explains himself more in the actual tweets.


 

veritas

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With Kuraly back, the 4th line will take a lot of tough matchups. Without him, I'd think Bergeron's line will get a lot more of those, and it makes sense to be able to give Pasta more o-zone usage with Krejci.
 

cshea

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Dom L’s series preview is up at the Athletic. Should note he’s a Leafs fan, but it is a pretty even piece. His model has this as essentially a true coin flip, Toronto with a 50.1% edge.

https://theathletic.com/910331/2019/04/08/2019-nhl-playoff-preview-bruins-vs-maple-leafs/

The gist is the Leafs are elite on offense, Bruins elite on defense. If Leafs can play the Bergeron line to a draw (or not get killed) they should have an advantage in the other matchups. He says the series is so close that the Kuraly injury actually judged the leafs to that slight advantage in his model.
 

cshea

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Sweeney says no Miller to start. Kuraly and Moore will be “integrated” as the series goes on.

So, Clifton or Kampfer?
 

TSC

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He has to be wrong. Cassidy literally just said for the beginning. I doubt he’d be hiding something like that.
Just went back and forth with him about this on Twitter, seeing if he misunderstood the initial report.

He says he’s standing by husband original tweet, I trust his sources so this is a huge blow.
 

cshea

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First run at practice:

Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - Kuhlman
Johansson - Coyle - Heinen
Nordstrom - Acciari - Wagner

Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Grzelyck - Kampfer / Clifton
 
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cshea

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Leafs lineup is below. They are at full health.

Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Kadri - Nylander
Moore - Gauthier - Brown

Rielly - Hainsey
Muzzin - Zaitsev
Gardiner - Dermott

Andersen
Hutchinson

Scratches would be Marincin, Rosen, Petan, Ennis.

Should also note that Hutchinson is up as the backup G for Sparks who had a rough go of it.

Marchand and DeBrusk hopefully can take advantage of the Leafs weak right D.
 

McDrew

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In Boston, I think you play the Bergeron line to counter the Tavarez line. In Toronto, I think they play the Matthews line to counter Bergeron's, and try and exploit Tavares against Krecji and the kids (someone make a theme song for that).
 
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veritas

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In Boston, I think you play the Bergeron line to counter the Tavarez line. In Toronto, I think they play the Matthews line to counter Bergeron, and try and exploit Tavares against Krecji and the kids (someone make a theme song for that).
Historically Toronto has shadowed the first line with Kadri when they have last shift. However, I was looking at the data from the 4 games this season and was really surprised to see that Babcock always put Tavares (and Rielly/Hainsey) vs the 1st line. Both coaches played things pretty straight with their line matching this season in H2H games. I wonder how much of that has to do with knowing they'd probably see each other in the playoffs.

There was really nothing else all that interesting in the matchups. Chara and McAvoy only played one Toronto game together, and it was in Toronto (with Matthews out), so it's tough to say if the Bruins will use them with Bergeron, or split them up.
 

McDrew

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My memory does not match the data. Thanks for correcting.

On the head to head matchups, was Pasta on the 1st line, second line, or out? Did the matchups depend on him, or just the pure 1-1/2-2/3-3/4-4 regardless?
 

veritas

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My memory does not match the data. Thanks for correcting.

On the head to head matchups, was Pasta on the 1st line, second line, or out? Did the matchups depend on him, or just the pure 1-1/2-2/3-3/4-4 regardless?
One of the games in Toronto both Bergeron and Matthews were out, and it was back in November, so it's probably safe to ignore. FWIW, Babcock put Tavares against Marchand and Pastrnak with Cave and JFK playing center.

The most recent game was Jan 12 in Toronto, with both teams pretty healthy, although pre-Coyle. For the most part, it was strictly:

Hyman/Tavares/Marner vs Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnak
Johnsson/Matthews/Kapanen vs DeBrusk/Krejci/Backes
Marleau/Kadri/Nylander vs Kuraly/Acciari/Wagner
Donato/JFK/Heinen vs Lindholm/Gauthier/Brown

With Rielly/Hainsey and Chara McAvoy shadowing the Tavares/Bergeron lines. I gotta think Babcock is gonna mix it up for the playoffs, it just doesn't make sense for Toronto to want those matchups above. They're giving Boston the Bergeron/Tavares matchup it wants, giving Matthews a ton of D-zone draws, and wasting their best defensive center (Kadri) on a line that can't score. He's got something else up his sleeve.

I'm looking at hockeyviz charts, btw: https://hockeyviz.com/game/2018020690/matchups . I think these ones are public, but if not, it's a fantastic use of a couple bucks a month if you're into hockey stats.
 

TheRealness

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Cassidy on Toucher and Rich all but confirmed Kuhlman is in, Backes is out, and it’s Clifton that appears likely to play and not Kampfer. At least for game 1.
 

LogansDad

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I have a confession to make. I'm not really comfortable talking about this, and I don't know how you will feel about me afterwards, but here goes.

I... guys... I don't hate the Leafs. Phew, I feel better already, getting that off my shoulders.

I actually enjoy watching them play, mostly. I'm on record as having Nathan MacKinnon as my favorite non Bruin player, but Mitch Marner is probably my favorite player to watch skate. I am in awe of his footwork.

I really think their style of play is fun to watch.

That said, Kadri is a piece of trash, and I hope the Bruins win this series in 5 games, for my heart health.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Edit: They have some fun players to watch, no doubt. But their fans and the history of some of the players they've carried...puke. And Babcock seems like a complete ass as well.
 

LogansDad

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Those are all valid concerns (although you may not be able to see this!). Babcock does seem like an ass, and, just to emphasize, Kadri is a dirty, dirty hockey player who I abhor.

I got my tickets for game 1, section 330, row 10, aisle. Basically right at center ice. So pumped.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Well done snagging tix. Enjoy- the Fleetcenter sucks, but come playoff time that building is a fucking zoo. Should be ready to blow its top come Thursday 7:00.
 

mwonow

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Those are all valid concerns (although you may not be able to see this!). Babcock does seem like an ass, and, just to emphasize, Kadri is a dirty, dirty hockey player who I abhor.

I got my tickets for game 1, section 330, row 10, aisle. Basically right at center ice. So pumped.
Babcock is not that bad a guy. Kadri definitely comes across as a punk and a shithead.

Usually, come playoffs, there are Leafs flags poking out of cars all over Toronto. This year is really muted. Smart folks might make this a tossup, but there's definitely an undertone of resignation here...
 

TFP

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Well done snagging tix. Enjoy- the Fleetcenter sucks, but come playoff time that building is a fucking zoo. Should be ready to blow its top come Thursday 7:00.
Disagree that the arena sucks. It’s come into its own as a good place to see a game overall and it’s certainly a memorable experience in the playoffs.
 

cshea

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No changes at practice today. Clifton going first with Grzelyck so it appears he’ll be in.

Game 1 lineup appears to be:

Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - Kuhlman
Johansson - Coyle - Heinen
Nordstrom - Acciari - Wagner

Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Grzelyck - Clifton

Rask
 

burstnbloom

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No changes at practice today. Clifton going first with Grzelyck so it appears he’ll be in.

Game 1 lineup appears to be:

Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - Kuhlman
Johansson - Coyle - Heinen
Nordstrom - Acciari - Wagner

Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Grzelyck - Clifton

Rask
I am really excited about that 3rd line. It would have been nice for them to get some time together prior to the playoffs?