Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs

cshea

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So we’re 3 games in. Let’s take a look at performance. I think it is time for Bruce to adjust both the lineup and his usage.

63/37/88

They are getting fed Ozone starts, yet losing to the Tavares line. 35 minutes, they have started 75% of their shifts in the OZone, resulting in a 54% CF, 45% shots for, 50% in scoring chances, 41% high danger chances, and are getting outscored 1-0. That is not good. They are at 44% expected goals for, so it is not like they are getting unlucky.

74/46

Kuhlman has mostly been their RW, but they have tried other guys so I’ll just look at 74 and 46 since they’ve been a constant. They are doing well. 48% OZone starts, 58% CF, 66% shots, 51% scoring chances, 70% high danger chances, 1-0 in goals, 63% in expected goals for.

43/13

Same here, 43-13 have been the constant with a rotating cast at RW. 31 minutes, 39% OZone, 50% CF, 55% shots, 53% scoring chances, 69% high danger, 2-1 in goals and a touch above 50% in expected goals.

20/55/14

They are getting fed Dzone starts and the results aren’t good. 24% OZone starts, 46% CF, 44% shots, 33% scoring chances, 27% high danger chances, goals are 0-1, expected goals for us 28%.

So that’s how things look 3 games in. It is a small sample, but they don’t have time to wait things out. Here’s what I would do for game 4.

- Put Pasta with Krejci, give that line more OZone starts.
- I hate splitting Heinen from Coyle, but I think he would need to go back to the top line.
- Top line gets more defensive zone starts.
- If Mojo can play, take out Wagner or Backes. Kuhlman to 3rd line with 90 and 13.
- Stop putting the 4th line out there for Dzone draws.

The result of that is:

Marchand - Bergeron - Heinen
DeBrusk - Krejci - Pastrnak
Johansson - Coyle - Kuhlman
Nordstrom - Acciari - Backes/Wagner

If Johansson can’t play then the odd man out would go into his spot. Sucks for Coyle who has been outstanding, but I think this may help loosen things up and get guys in maybe a bit better positions to score.
 

biff_hardbody

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Apr 27, 2016
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Just as a nitpick - Marchand and Pasta combined for the 2nd goal in Game 2 at even strength. Bergeron was still -1 that game, so he must have gone for a change.

Not that it changes your analysis, which I think is spot on.
 

Zososoxfan

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[snip]

The result of that is:

Marchand - Bergeron - Heinen
DeBrusk - Krejci - Pastrnak
Johansson - Coyle - Kuhlman
Nordstrom - Acciari - Backes/Wagner
I like this. I'm not nearly knowledgeable to back this up, but I get the feeling that Babs is doing a pretty good job matching his best defenders on the B's top line. Spreading out some of the scoring and making the other lines more threatening may restrict Bab's ability to match lines like he has/wants.
 

McDrew

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I know I'm late on this, but I actually really like the "remainder of the series" suspension length. At least, I think its way better than the "playoff modifier" where no one gets suspended for more than 1 game unless there's a major injury. Keep the person who went over the line out for the series to both prevent him from agitating further and giving the other team a target to respond to. If Marchand pulled a post-whistle spear-to-the-nuts to one of the Leafs, I'd expect and support him geting the same penalty.
 

cshea

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Kuraly will be a game time decision tomorrow.

If he can go, and Kuhlman can go, I’d yank Acciari and Wagner and go 20-52-83 on the 4th line. Or bump Kuhlman to 3rd line and drop Backes to the 4th line.

90-13-42/83
20-52-42/83
 

veritas

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Kuraly was playing a lot of wing with Acciari at center even before he broke his wrist. I don't think we'll see him back at center this season. I don't think Acciari's been good in the playoffs but he's probably their 4th best center right now.
 

veritas

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Yeah their 1st round odds being at 100% give them a huge advantage. The Islanders are still only 4% despite that.

His model hates the Islanders way too much, though. I'm pretty sure it's due to their performance last year being a factor in the model. It was such a disaster that I think practically speaking, it should be ignored.
 

tims4wins

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Yeah the key is looking at the Bruins % as a percentage of the current 53.8%. It is basically saying they are 55.8% to win next round if they get out of this round; then 67.0% to win the East if they make it there; then 61.2% to win the Cup if they get there.

If my math is correct, that puts them at 22.9% to win the Cup if they get out of the first round. That's pretty good considering a random 1 in 8 chance would be 12.5%.
 

RedOctober3829

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When does everyone think they'll play on Sunday? If Vegas and Calgary win tonight, there will be 3 games on Sunday. Locations would be Toronto, Colorado, and Vegas. Will Bruins play at 3 and the two WC games at night or will one of the WC games be at 3 and the Bruins at 7:30?
 

kenneycb

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So the model is saying the Bruins are one of the best teams in the East and are slightly favored against a similarly good team against which the Bruins have home ice against. Glad we have math to confirm that.
 

j44thor

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When does everyone think they'll play on Sunday? If Vegas and Calgary win tonight, there will be 3 games on Sunday. Locations would be Toronto, Colorado, and Vegas. Will Bruins play at 3 and the two WC games at night or will one of the WC games be at 3 and the Bruins at 7:30?
Sure would like to know given it is Easter Sunday and I'd guess a lot of people have plans.
 

mwonow

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Also, Monday is a holiday in Canada, so a Sunday night game would be a tremendous live and TV draw
 

wilked

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At least Kadri gets to serve the max sentence. And more tangibly, gets to feel ineffective the longest.
 

joe dokes

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Kuraly was playing a lot of wing with Acciari at center even before he broke his wrist. I don't think we'll see him back at center this season. I don't think Acciari's been good in the playoffs but he's probably their 4th best center right now.
Acciari really seems to have benefitted from Kuraly's return and return to form.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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True. I never quite realized it as much as during Kuraly's most recent absence.
I know this is a topic for another day, but I’d really like to see a 4th line next year with Kuraly and a couple of fast kids that can get in on the forecheck. I’m done with guys like Accardi and Wagner. Time to work in some kids on the bottom 6.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Of all the amazing comments on the athletic by Toronto fans, I think this one may be the best:

Gardiner in on the winning goal would be sweet redemption, and deserved.

But let’s be clear, the future direction of the NHL is a stake here. The leafs are the purest example of a roster chosen for talent & speed vs physical force, and most of the others are already eliminated.

If the leafs win, others will follow and we will have a new era of skill based hockey. Bruins win, and the inevitable is delayed.


If the Leafs don’t win, the sport of hockey is doomed.
 

thehitcat

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Of all the amazing comments on the athletic by Toronto fans, I think this one may be the best:

Gardiner in on the winning goal would be sweet redemption, and deserved.

But let’s be clear, the future direction of the NHL is a stake here. The leafs are the purest example of a roster chosen for talent & speed vs physical force, and most of the others are already eliminated.

If the leafs win, others will follow and we will have a new era of skill based hockey. Bruins win, and the inevitable is delayed.


If the Leafs don’t win, the sport of hockey is doomed.
What happens to a dream deferred...
 

NYCSox

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Cassidy giving them a dose of their medicine.

On Monday, Cassidy was asked by a reporter whether he felt slew footing was an issue in the series.

Cassidy said he didn't think so, because the act of slew footing requires an arm -- but the coach did say he felt Toronto players were bumping into the back of Bruins skates a lot. "Whether it's just dumb luck, or how they battle for pucks," Cassidy said, "we've brought it up with the supervisor."
http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/26581789/bruins-cassidy-questions-leafs-skating-tactics
 

MiracleOfO2704

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Of all the amazing comments on the athletic by Toronto fans, I think this one may be the best:

Gardiner in on the winning goal would be sweet redemption, and deserved.

But let’s be clear, the future direction of the NHL is a stake here. The leafs are the purest example of a roster chosen for talent & speed vs physical force, and most of the others are already eliminated.

If the leafs win, others will follow and we will have a new era of skill based hockey. Bruins win, and the inevitable is delayed.


If the Leafs don’t win, the sport of hockey is doomed.
Seriously, Anglophone versions of Habs fans. It even comes with an unearned complex of reclaiming some long-ago lost glory.
 

locknload

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Seriously, Anglophone versions of Habs fans. It even comes with an unearned complex of reclaiming some long-ago lost glory.
One would think that if an the other examples are already out maaaybe its not the best way to build a winning hockey team. The old hockey advice still works, to beat a faster and more skilled team you out physical them.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Jul 22, 2006
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What also kills me is to somehow suggest this Bruins team isn't talented and is just a modern version of the mid 90s Devils or the 70s Flyers.

Toronto Maple Leafs- 2019 Shinny Champions!
 

mwonow

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Sep 4, 2005
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I am in Japan at the moment and cannot enjoy Leafs Nation tears. Knowing they are there will be enough.
Downtown TO was PACKED with people in Leafs garb yesterday. Mostly young people, lots of women. As a buddy said, these are Torontonians who haven't been around long enough to absorb the hopelessness and futility of Leafdom.
 

DJnVa

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Downtown TO was PACKED with people in Leafs garb yesterday. Mostly young people, lots of women. As a buddy said, these are Torontonians who haven't been around long enough to absorb the hopelessness and futility of Leafdom.
They only gotta be like 7 to know who their daddy is.
 

Spelunker

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Downtown TO was PACKED with people in Leafs garb yesterday. Mostly young people, lots of women. As a buddy said, these are Torontonians who haven't been around long enough to absorb the hopelessness and futility of Leafdom.
"In what's become an annual event..."
*swoon*


 

cshea

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Just to wrap this series up, here are some of my takeaways.

- It was really tight 5 on 5. Most of the rate stats the teams were really damn close, between 48% and 52%. Leafs scored one more goal than the Bruins at even strength, 12-11.

- As a result, special teams ended up being the difference in my opinion. Each team had 27 minutes of PP time in the series, the Bruins scored 7 goals in their 27 minutes while the Leafs only had 3. I know the shorty’s and chances against that sometimes result from their PP set up is frustrating as hell, but 7 goals in 27 minutes is why they haven’t changed much.

- The Bruins PP also seemed to score the timely goals, while the Leafs couldn’t. Down 2-1 in the series, they get a PPG early in game 4. Leafs come back and tie it in the 2nd, B’s get a PPG to push the lead back to 2. Game 6, down 1-0 on the road and they get 2 PPG’s to take a lead and get rolling. Those were big momentum swings.

- Coaching. Babcock didn’t make a single change to his lineup all series except for putting Ennis in for the Kadri and dropping Nylander down to center the 3rd line. That was it. Cassidy was a lot more proactive in changing when things weren’t working. Split up the top line, tinkered with the bottom 6, found spots to get guys like Pastrnak extra shifts when the opportunity presented itself, etc. Babcock just rolled his 4 lines and 3 pairs out one after the other. He never tried a big line of Matthews - Tavares - Marner. He never got Nylander out for an extra shift with Matthews...those types of things. I guess they were never trailing in the series so maybe Babcock felt they should just keep doing what they were doing, but surely there were spots in game 6 and 7 to try some things.
 
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