Stretch Run 2017: is the glass half full or that other thing?

SemperFidelisSox

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2008
31,083
Boston, MA
The Twins have won five in a row since being swept by NYY, and beat Cleveland tonight to tighten the race for the #1 seed.

Minnesota has not been helpful this month.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,473
Garden City
To my earlier post in this thread. Both the Yanks and Sox were due this sobering experience against a team actually playing well. Orioles, Rays, and Twins were not real tests for the Yanks and Sox. Dumb errors, relievers who couldn’t throw strikes, and incredibly poor managing (especially Buck) really inflated expectations.
 

uk_sox_fan

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,273
London, England
With all AL teams having 6 games remaining we are down to 8 'races', 6 of which could end today.

Race: Leader>Chaser (Magic#)
2nd WC: Min>LAA (2)
2nd WC: Min>Tex (1)
2nd WC: Min>KCR (1)
2nd WC: Min>TBR (1)
1st WC: NYY>Min (2)
AL East: Bos>NYY (3)
ALDS2 Home field: Hou>Bos (2)
ALCS Home field: Cle>Hou (4)

Obviously, for the Sox the AL East is a serious goal worthy of doing whatever it takes to obtain. Beyond that it looks like getting home field in the ALDS is a pipe dream and influencing who takes the #1 seed for the playoffs is probably not worth the trouble. I'm for pulling up as soon as the division is clinched.

Note for WS home field the Sox trail the Nats by 4 games and lead the D'backs by 1 1/2 and the Cubs by 3.
Three races left now in the AL:

Race: Leader>Chaser (Magic#)

2nd WC: Min>LAA (1)
AL East: Bos>NYY (3)
ALCS Home field: Cle>Hou (4)
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,044
Still a pretty comfortable lead for the division but if we remain 3 ahead for the final 4 game series with the Astros one wonders how much of an effort the Astros make for the chance to face the Yankees (most likely) over the Red Sox, especially with Pom and Sale looking less dominant
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Still a pretty comfortable lead for the division but if we remain 3 ahead for the final 4 game series with the Astros one wonders how much of an effort the Astros make for the chance to face the Yankees (most likely) over the Red Sox, especially with Pom and Sale looking less dominant
If Houston is locked into the #2 spot when they play Boston this weekend, I think their focus will be on getting their rotation squared away for the playoffs, giving key guys some rest, etc. But it's not like they're gonna throw out all their AAA guys for four games. They'll still have starters in there, and they'll still need to get their good pitchers some work in order to stay sharp for the playoffs. The Sox, under no conditions, will be facing Houston's scrubs. And whoever is playing will play hard and try to have good at-bats and their pitchers, whoever is there, will try to get outs, and all four games will be tough.

I'm hoping the Sox win 2 of their next 5 and that NY loses one more game. I think right at this moment - with Sale having spent his turn (ineffectively, I might add), with Toronto red hot, and with all the Sox' injuries at the moment - asking Boston to win 3 of 5 is probably a pretty tall order.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
On the half-full side, I expected the magic number to be at 3 games or so at midweek because I thought the Yankees would roll Toronto last weekend and Cincy would win at least one game with their offense facing our weaker starters. Getting to 3 on Sunday night was an unexpected bonus.

Which leads to the 'other thing' side - to come home from an 8-1 road trip, have your two best starting pitchers take the hill and proceed to get blown out in both games is incredibly disappointing. With the injuries piling up, it feels like it's going to be a slog all week to get those wins. The y are incredibly fortunate that the Yankees have underperformed their expected record and gifted them this division-leading cushion.
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
3,163
The y are incredibly fortunate that the Yankees have underperformed their expected record and gifted them this division-leading cushion.
What the heck are you talking about? The Yanks are 17-6 in their last 23 games...you call that getting "gifted" the division?
 

OurF'ingCity

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
8,469
New York City
What the heck are you talking about? The Yanks are 17-6 in their last 23 games...you call that getting "gifted" the division?
I think all he is saying is that the Sox' Pythagorean win % is just about equal to their actual win %, but the Yankees' Pythagorean win % is almost ten games better than their actual record. So by that metric, the Yankees have gotten pretty unlucky this season and "should" have won the division fairly easily. Of course, YMMV when it comes to Pythagorean win % and how much stock to put in that, but at least on Baseball Prospectus all their expected-record metrics have the Yankees as a significantly better team than the Red Sox.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,957
Saskatoon Canada
One thing that can lead to over performing a pythag, according to BP, Bill James, etc, is a strong bullpen. I can't find a link, but I recall Bill James being asked by a Yankee fan, if the fact the Torre Yanks were outperforming their Pythag indicated Torre was in fact the greatest manager of everything forever. James said it was more likley Mariano Rivera being the best closer ever was the cause.

The Sox have done very well in extra inning games, and won a lot of close games due to bullpen strength. The Yankees pen has let a few more slip away.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
Thanks - I should have referenced BP's Adjusted Standings, which has the Yankees as the second best team in MLB behind the Indians.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,096
I've always thought the World Series should join the Super Bowl as being held at a warm weather neutral location. Will probably never happen, but late October/early November is just too cold in the north, and I think the destination aspect of the Super Bowl contributes significantly to its popularity.
I've always thought they should play the Super Bowl in Lambeau every year.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,044
Yes, they have stumbled in the past two days

No, are they in any real trouble

Fangraphs shows it better
https://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?lg=AL&div=E&stat=div&year=2017

There have only been 4 times this year where the Yankees have made up 3 games in a 5 game stretch: Apr 14, Apr 28, May 7, and the bad stretch at end of July.

Aug and Sep the Yanks only came close to that once (first week in Sep), and then only made up 2 games.

Point is, this team is a long way from the Apr/May team. They will take care of business
 

uk_sox_fan

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,273
London, England
One thing that can lead to over performing a pythag, according to BP, Bill James, etc, is a strong bullpen. I can't find a link, but I recall Bill James being asked by a Yankee fan, if the fact the Torre Yanks were outperforming their Pythag indicated Torre was in fact the greatest manager of everything forever. James said it was more likley Mariano Rivera being the best closer ever was the cause.

The Sox have done very well in extra inning games, and won a lot of close games due to bullpen strength. The Yankees pen has let a few more slip away.
Except that by fWAR the Yankees (8.8) have the best bullpen in MLB whilst the Sox are 5th (7.0). By FIP they're closer with the Yankees 2nd (3.36) to the Indians (3.23) and the Sox 3rd (3.48) and in xFIP the Sox are 4th (3.76) just ahead of the 5th place Yankees (3.79). FanGraphs Team Relief Stats

Point is that the Yankees have underperformed despite having one of the best bullpens in baseball. I think the only logical explanation is the obvious superiority the Sox enjoy in managerial prowess plus the positive benefit brought on by an aggressive approach to running the bases.

(ducks)
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,713
I forget where I saw it, but as of a couple of weeks, NY ranked in the bottom few teams in baseball in both 'clutch' hitting and pitching, which would pretty much explain the Pythagorean numbers we've all been confused by all season.
 

Wallball Tingle

union soap
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,518
You don't wake up screaming? These are the Red Sox we are talking about. New Englanders -- especially those born before 1980 -- are programmed from birth to obsess over them.
To quote Manny Ramirez: "Why should we panic?" They played fantastic baseball for the better part of a month, hadn't lost a series till yesterday since the first week of September. I don't think they have the weapons to have an amazing postseason (though you just never know), especially as it looks like injuries are piling up here, but I DO think they have enough left to win a couple times, and that will probably be enough. Team has proven over and over they don't quit.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,867
San Andreas Fault
Our two best starters just had bad starts. The very best has a history of tailing off late in the year and the other is in uncharted waters for innings pitched in a season next time out. Porcello is next against a totally awakened Toronto offense. Glass half empty but dirty water tonight makes it half full again.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
This team has been smoke and mirrors all year, and I fear that right at the end, here, the smoke is clearing and the mirror is cracked.
How does smoke and mirrors actually work? There must be some history behind this cliche. Can my son use them to get into a better college?

I'm not panicking. The bullpen is based on something less mystical. And it's baseball, a couple good weeks of hit sequencing and cue the duck boats!
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
You could also argue that they just made up two games so that's one more to make up. Now, can they make up five games in a seven game stretch? That's the question.
That may have been the question two games ago, but not anymore, unless I'm severely confused. If I throw a coin twice and it comes up tails both times, that doesn't make it any less likely that my next throw will come up tails.

To put it another way, by making up two games in two days, the Yankees have already disposed of the difference in likelihood between making up 3 in 5 and 5 in 7. What remains is simply the probability of making up 3 in 5.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,014
Oregon
That may have been the question two games ago, but not anymore, unless I'm severely confused. If I throw a coin twice and it comes up tails both times, that doesn't make it any less likely that my next throw will come up tails.
GUILDENSTERN: Heads. He keeps flipping the coin. Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads …He throws it up again, and Rosencrantz catches it, looks at the coin and throws it back to Guildenstern. Heads. Rosencrantz gets a coin out of his purse and flips it, covering it with has hand. Bet. Heads, I win. Rosencrantz looks at the coin, says nothing, and throws it to Guildenstern, who covers it with his hand. Again. Guildenstern looks at the coin. Heads. Rosencrantz gets out another coin.
The two continue on horseback, with Guildenstern flipping a coin as he rides. Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … he drops the coin, and it rolls down the hill. It comes up heads.
Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are now at camp.

GUILDENSTERN: It must be indicative of something other than the redistribution of wealth. He flips a coin to Rosencrantz, who looks at it.
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
GUILDENSTERN: A weaker man might be moved to reexamine his faith. If for nothing at least in the law of probability. He flips another coin to Rosencrantz.
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
GUILDENSTERN: Consider. One. Probability is a factor which operates within natural forces. Two. Probability is not operating as a factor. Three. We are now held within un- sub- or super-natural forces. Discuss.
ROSENCRANTZ: What?
GUILDENSTERN: Look at it this way. If six monkeys … if six monkeys … the law of averages, if I’ve got this right, means that if six monkeys are thrown up in the air long enough, they would land on their tails he throws another coin to Rosencrantz about as often as they would land on their
ROSENCRANTZ (looking at the coin): Heads. Getting a bit of a bore, isn’t it.
GUILDENSTERN: A bore?
ROSENCRANTZ: Well …
GUILDENSTERN: What about the suspense?
ROSENCRANTZ: What suspense?
GUILDENSTERN: It must be the law of diminishing returns. I feel the spell about to be broken. He flips a coin high into the air, catches it, and looks at it. He shakes his head. Well, an even chance.
ROSENCRANTZ: Seventy-Eight in a row. A new record, I imagine.
GUILDENSTERN: Is that what you imagine? A new record?
ROSENCRANTZ: Well.
GUILDENSTERN: No questions, not a flicker of doubt?
ROSENCRANTZ: I could be wrong.
GUILDENSTERN: No fear?
ROSENCRANTZ: Fear?
GUILDENSTERN: He hurls a coin at Rosencrantz. Fear!
ROSENCRANTZ: (looking at the coin): Seventy-Nine.
They are still at the campsight, Guildenstern is eating while Rosencrantz continues to flip a coin.
GUILDENSTERN: I think I have it. Time has stopped dead. The single experience of one coin being spun once is being repeated …
ROSENCRANTZ: Hundred and fifty-six.
GUILDENSTERN: … a hundred and fifty-six times! On the whole, doubtful. Or, a spectacular indication of the principle that each individual coin spun individually is as likely to come down heads as tails, and therefore should cause no surprise each individual time it does.
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads. I’ve never seen anything like it.
Guildenstern questions their memories largely ignored by Rosnecrantz.
GUILDENSTERN: We have been spinning coins together since … I don’t know when. And in all that time, if it is all that time, one hundred and fifty-seven coins, spun consecutively, have come down heads one hundred and fifty-seven consecutive times, and all you can do is play with your food!
ROSENCRANTZ: Wait a minute. He flips a coin in the air.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
That may have been the question two games ago, but not anymore, unless I'm severely confused. If I throw a coin twice and it comes up tails both times, that doesn't make it any less likely that my next throw will come up tails.

To put it another way, by making up two games in two days, the Yankees have already disposed of the difference in likelihood between making up 3 in 5 and 5 in 7. What remains is simply the probability of making up 3 in 5.
This might be a philosophical question. Can you dispose of the two that happened already? I say no, because the players themselves are carrying the experience of having had the two game shift, and whatever that does psychologically. If we were talking about flipping coins, then maybe what happened last time truly doesn't matter.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,674
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I'm on the half full end of the spectrum, although I dearly wish our magic number was at two this morning. I am worried that Farrell will not get the team properly setup for the post season if he's still messing around during the final series.

While all post-seasons are different, for perspective, I took a look at the 2013 team - and I believe the 2017 team is comparable.

While the offense is down overall, we're really only looking at the 9 starting players, plus a pinch runner/hitter. Interestingly, the 2013 Sox only had three players OPS over 700 for the entire 2013 post season, with some regulars counting as black holes. SSS, I know, but the point being that a couple of hot players can make a difference. We've waited all year.

On the other hand, our pitching looks stronger than it did in 2013. Sale/Pom/Erod/Porcello, plus strong middle bullpen to an elite closer is much more appetizing than Lester/Lackey/Buch/Peavey and a cobbled together bullpen to an elite closer. In 2013, Farrell rode the hot hand - we have more candidates for the Workman role this time around.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
I'm on the half full end of the spectrum, although I dearly wish our magic number was at two this morning. I am worried that Farrell will not get the team properly setup for the post season if he's still messing around during the final series.
Out of curiosity, what should he be doing to "setup for the post season" that you think he won't be doing?

Because frankly, other than giving dinged-up guys like Pedroia, Nunez, Betts, and Hanley down time to more quickly recover from whatever ails them, I'm not sure what exactly he should be doing. With three off-days between the final regular season game and the first ALDS game (assuming of course that they do clinch the division), resting players for the sake of rest or lining up the rotation are minor needs at this point. Basically, as long as things are locked up before Sunday so they can hold Sale out (or at least cut his pitch count to "side session" length), everything else can be accomplished during the break.
 

Unin10D

New Member
Feb 7, 2017
257
Heading into the final series, the we need to go 1-3 and the Yankees need to go 4-0 to tie the division. Half full still

I'm not about to start posting "it's over" or "what game should I go to to watch the clinch" though...2011 isn't that far away
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,674
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Out of curiosity, what should he be doing to "setup for the post season" that you think he won't be doing?

Because frankly, other than giving dinged-up guys like Pedroia, Nunez, Betts, and Hanley down time to more quickly recover from whatever ails them, I'm not sure what exactly he should be doing. With three off-days between the final regular season game and the first ALDS game (assuming of course that they do clinch the division), resting players for the sake of rest or lining up the rotation are minor needs at this point. Basically, as long as things are locked up before Sunday so they can hold Sale out (or at least cut his pitch count to "side session" length), everything else can be accomplished during the break.
I would say mostly resting guys, but also testing out called up players to get them comfortable in special roles - PH, PR, practicing plays, etc. Same for the bullpen. Same for coaching tweaks. Best for that to happen in "meaningless" live games against MLB talent.

I'm not a professional baseball coach/manager, but the inverse of the above would be to suggest an "all hands on deck" play to the last day finish to the season carries absolutely no penalty. Perhaps it does not, although conventional wisdom would be that teams who have enough time to set themselves up for post season play do better. Has anyone researched that?
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
Heading into the final series, the we need to go 1-3 and the Yankees need to go 4-0 to tie the division. Half full still

I'm not about to start posting "it's over" or "what game should I go to to watch the clinch" though...2011 isn't that far away
Hopefully, we get the same Eduardo Rodriguez tonight who shut down the Reds. Brad Peacock has been pretty solid lately so it may be a low-scoring game.

I think we may able to count on one Yankees loss this weekend ... maybe. The pitching matchups in are in New York's favor all weekend, although it would be nice if Toronto could tee off on Tanaka once again.
 

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
I would say mostly resting guys, but also testing out called up players to get them comfortable in special roles - PH, PR, practicing plays, etc. Same for the bullpen. Same for coaching tweaks

<snip>
Perhaps it does not, although conventional wisdom would be that teams who have enough time to set themselves up for post season play do better. Has anyone researched that?
My guess would be that the average team that clinches with plenty of time to spare is significantly better than the average team that plays to the very end of the season. It would this be difficult to compare without a lot of adjusting for that intrinsic quality difference. I would guess a way to backdoor would be to look at the performance of teams who win a series quickly compared to the teams that play maximum games in a series.

It's intuitive that teams that clinches early can do the two most important things, though... Rest guys with nagging injuries and set up the rotation.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
My guess would be that the average team that clinches with plenty of time to spare is significantly better than the average team that plays to the very end of the season. It would this be difficult to compare without a lot of adjusting for that intrinsic quality difference. I would guess a way to backdoor would be to look at the performance of teams who win a series quickly compared to the teams that play maximum games in a series.

It's intuitive that teams that clinches early can do the two most important things, though... Rest guys with nagging injuries and set up the rotation.
With the ALDS starting on Thursday, you can set up your rotation as long as you've clinched before Sunday's finale.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,236
With the ALDS starting on Thursday, you can set up your rotation as long as you've clinched before Sunday's finale.

The worst case scenario (assuming no 163rd game for the division) is that Sale has to pitch for real on Sunday to win the division. Assuming he wins the division, it certainly affects who would pitch Game 1, as Sale would then have only 3 days rest, Sale would be on either 4 or 5 days rest for game 5 (and would unable to pitch game 4) no matter whether he pitches game 1(5) or game 2(4), since there's off days after 2 and 4. Assuming no one goes on short rest, pitchers who didn't start 1 or 2 are going to have to start 3 and 4 (Erod/Porcello/Fister).

If they all really shit the bed and they have to play the WC game on Tuesday, I guess it would be Erod on 4days' rest?
If they shit the bed only slightly less and have to play the NYY for the division on Monday, then I guess its Porcello (assuming Sale pitched and failed Sunday)? [/shudder]
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,674
Miami (oh, Miami!)
The worst case scenario (assuming no 163rd game for the division) is that Sale has to pitch for real on Sunday to win the division. Assuming he wins the division, it certainly affects who would pitch Game 1, as Sale would then have only 3 days rest, Sale would be on either 4 or 5 days rest for game 5 (and would unable to pitch game 4) no matter whether he pitches game 1(5) or game 2(4), since there's off days after 2 and 4. Assuming no one goes on short rest, pitchers who didn't start 1 or 2 are going to have to start 3 and 4 (Erod/Porcello/Fister).

If they all really shit the bed and they have to play the WC game on Tuesday, I guess it would be Erod on 4days' rest?
If they shit the bed only slightly less and have to play the NYY for the division on Monday, then I guess its Porcello (assuming Sale pitched and failed Sunday)? [/shudder]
That "lose the next three but clinch on Sunday" scenario would mean that all the regulars start the next four games (including playing the entire Sunday game, but excepting a B-squad punt if they're blown out at any point). Also, there would be sparing the bullpen - but the arms most likely to be used post-season would be the ones Farrell would go to first (again, excepting a mop-up during a blowout.)

The above would hold true if they lose the next 4 and end up playing the WC game also.

The real saving grace is that the Astros won't be defaulting to their best available players every single game in the series.

***
I know the accepted wisdom is Farrell is good over the long haul, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable with an extra win right now, rather with the magic number at 2 with 4 to play. Sweeps happen.
 

Dahabenzapple2

Mr. McGuire / Axl's Counter
SoSH Member
Jun 20, 2011
8,926
Wayne, NJ
a question for those who know where to look this stuff up:

what is the win probability for the division going into tonight not including the potential Monday play-in/play-off game between the Red Sox & Yankees?
 

Rough Carrigan

reasons within Reason
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
a question for those who know where to look this stuff up:

what is the win probability for the division going into tonight not including the potential Monday play-in/play-off game between the Red Sox & Yankees?
Baseball Prospectus has the Sox at 96.3% to win the A.L. East though it's not clear to me that this doesn't also include their chance of winning a game if it ends up tied after 162.

https://baseballprospectus.com/odds/
 

uk_sox_fan

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,273
London, England
I, for one, am really impressed with the intricate strategy they've employed. Once they knew they'd win the division almost no matter what following the monster 8-1 road trip, Farrell instructed the troops to start tanking. The pitchers held back and saved their strength for next week, the batters relaxed and stopped trying to stress themselves out getting runs across all in an effort to be on peak form when it mattered most. The net result is that Houston will be supremely overconfident, thinking they know how to hit our pitchers when in fact they have no idea what they're in for. Brilliant!
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,807
Melbourne, Australia
I, for one, am really impressed with the intricate strategy they've employed. Once they knew they'd win the division almost no matter what following the monster 8-1 road trip, Farrell instructed the troops to start tanking. The pitchers held back and saved their strength for next week, the batters relaxed and stopped trying to stress themselves out getting runs across all in an effort to be on peak form when it mattered most. The net result is that Houston will be supremely overconfident, thinking they know how to hit our pitchers when in fact they have no idea what they're in for. Brilliant!
Always be two moves ahead of your opponent. Positively Belichickian!!
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,054
Hingham, MA
I, for one, am really impressed with the intricate strategy they've employed. Once they knew they'd win the division almost no matter what following the monster 8-1 road trip, Farrell instructed the troops to start tanking. The pitchers held back and saved their strength for next week, the batters relaxed and stopped trying to stress themselves out getting runs across all in an effort to be on peak form when it mattered most. The net result is that Houston will be supremely overconfident, thinking they know how to hit our pitchers when in fact they have no idea what they're in for. Brilliant!
Obviously this is kind of tongue in cheek, but I think there could actually be some truth in here. This team has been pretty streaky all year. Get the bad stuff out of the system this week, reduce expectations (last year EVERYONE picked the Sox to like sweep the Tribe; this year no one will pick them in the first round), hell maybe even Houston will take them a bit lightly given last night's pounding.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,271
AZ
Fangraphs
https://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?lg=AL&div=E&stat=div&year=2017

The win yesterday brought them from 95.6% to 97.0%. Or to look at it differently, it cut the Yankees odds of a division win by a third, from 4.4% to 3.0%
It's weird after the way they played this week and the way that the Yankees have scored pretty easily that the Sox are in better position to win the division in the regular season today then they were at the end of the road trip -- one in six things to go for them as opposed to 3 in 14.

All that said, I think a tie for the division is still a realistic possibility. Blue Jays are hot but at the end of a road trip with an eye on some relaxation. Astros are very tough to get out with meaningful games left. The Sox have been resilient all year and I think they will find a way to win one of the next three but I can't say it would be shocking if they didn't. Given that a division tie would effectively signal they are probably completely screwed, the 97 percent number means little to me. I see them as needing 1 of six things to go their way in the next three days in order to have much of a chance at any further meaningful baseball. I suppose if you view each of those six things as a coin flip, the chance they will all be tails is pretty low but I'm not sure they are all a coin flip.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
8,848
NYC
I suppose if you view each of those six things as a coin flip, the chance they will all be tails is pretty low but I'm not sure they are all a coin flip.
Even if all six games are (on average) 70% shots for NYY/HOU, that's still an 88.2% chance they drop at least one game. But yeah, fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc. Hoping for a merciful implosion by Tanaka this afternoon so we can all celebrate after work.
 

Wallball Tingle

union soap
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,518
It's weird after the way they played this week and the way that the Yankees have scored pretty easily that the Sox are in better position to win the division in the regular season today then they were at the end of the road trip -- one in six things to go for them as opposed to 3 in 14.
But your gut feeling that this situation isn't quite as good is correct, statistically...apparently. Fangraphs had them at 99.6% to win the division after Sunday. A mere 98.8% today (and down from 98.9% the day before despite the magic number dropping). I'm not sure where that comes from entirely given 3/14 versus 1/6, but (without being able to delve into the statistics) it's probably something like "one team sweeps and one team swept happens" statistically whereas "pretty close to one team double sweeps, one team double swept" doesn't really happen. So many more chances to get that number down...well, hopefully one of the outcomes we want happens today, and that's that.