Yeah with how banged up many of their important players are, an “early” clinch could end up being really important.
Stretch Run 2017: is the glass half full or that other thing?
- Thread starter Stanley Steamer
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Yeah, I'm never really sure where those numbers come from. I think fans of a team in question will always view it differently either because they know their team better or they are lunatics, the latter of which may be the case for me. My gut concern is pretty straightforward. First, so long as we haven't clinched, it's unlikely we'll be playing the Astros in a game that is meaningless from their perspective. As long as they win, their games remain meaningful for them at least until potentially game 162. And, obviously, if they don't win, the games becomes meaningless for us. In other words, we are not likely to get a game against a resting Astros, unless we've clinched in which case we don't care. Second, when I think about potential final scores today, 10-4 Astros and 7-1 Yankees doesn't seem like much of a stretch to imagine. And, if that happens, no matter what the experts say using various statistical models, division tie starts to seem very likely.
Which may just be a long paragraph confirming a complete inability to view this thing objectively on my part.
I'm not 100% sure, but I think Fangraphs takes opponents remaining into account when calculating their percentages. Houston being statistically a better team than the Red Sox while the Jays are statistically inferior to the Yankees might account for the slight dip in their estimation of the Red Sox's likelihood of clinching the division.
That didn't happen, but I am at peace with whatever happens. If they cannot win 1 of 3 and the remaining two go the Yankees way, the Red Sox will have earned the shit sandwich. That Being, having to burn one starter in a game for the division, and another starter in a WC game if they lose the playoff to the Yankees. And if that's where this lands, then any chance to go very far will have proven to be illusory. This would be neither quick nor merciful. I'm sitting here hoping with every pitch that it does not happen.
Houston ... we have a problem.
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But do we deserve the subsequent press conference with Farrell praising Chili Davis?
Well if you want to make the numbers keep looking shitier, then you should take the bullpen ERA from today out too.
I'm mainly talking about offensive numbers.... Im not worried about our BP.... Our BP has been pretty strong all season.... We won't go far in the playoffs if we have an impotent lineup vs good (not great) pitchers
This collapse seems inevitable.
What will be the "chicked and beer" story to assign blame at the end of the year?
What will be the "chicked and beer" story to assign blame at the end of the year?
I’m not sure it warrants that level of assignment of blame. Fact is they are still 16-10 for the month and only have given up 2.5 games, which is a perfectly normal month. They look like shit lately but they also had some stretches where they outperformed themselves for what they’ve brought to the table this season on the average day. They weren’t going to contend with so many injuries and under performances. Really, even with the drop in offense, Price’s injury probably could have cost them a fighting chance at least, even with the offensive regression.
I’m honestly not trying to stir the pot of start it again, but this seems to scream to me as a ‘shake things up’ situation with the manager and coaching staff, whether it’s warranted or not.
I’m honestly not trying to stir the pot of start it again, but this seems to scream to me as a ‘shake things up’ situation with the manager and coaching staff, whether it’s warranted or not.
We’ve had a bad homestand but we’re still playing at a 100 win pace in September. Yes it’s frustrating to back into the playoffs and it’s nervous right now because no one wants to play two gimmick games before a real series v the Indians or Astros but I think we’ll be competitive if we don’t have to burn our number 1 and 2 before the start of a real series.
Let’s just hope the Yankees lose tonight and make everyone’s life easier.
Let’s just hope the Yankees lose tonight and make everyone’s life easier.
why is it a collapse? this is who they are. take away the ridiculous extra inning W-L record and theya re the 4th or 5th best team in the AL. Look at Houston/Cleveland/Yankees lineups and starting rotations versus Boston. Betts is only guy who clearly starts for the Astros, maybe Vaz. Taht's it. Sale is the only guy who clearly makes the starting rotation. do the same analysis with Cleveland or NYY? The Sox are just not as good as those teams. Their advantage has been in the bullpen only. Normalize their extra inning W-L record and they are an 85-86 win team competing with 100+ win teams (Yankees are more like 95-96 win team)
My point is the media wanted somebody to blame in 11 "and it got ugly. If the Sox don't win the division and lose the play in game there will be noise, fair or not.
We'd still all have signed up to be in this position on any of April 1, May 1, June 1, July 1, August 1, or September 1. Glass still firmly half full here.
Ownership, and specifically the guy "who runs the Red Sox", wanted to blame 11 on someone, and they deployed Bob Hohler so effectively that six years later we're blaming the media. It was Larry. Never Forget.
Locally, the Sox are barely making the top five on-going stories; Tom Brady's book is a bigger deal. The vultures are patiently waiting (well, with the exception of Jimmy Stewart) for Farrell's carcass. When the team is eliminated, the manager will be the target and almost all of the "noise" will be centered on his myriad failures.
I predict the players will largely go blameless, as any spillover from Farrell will splash onto Dombrowski and his inability to fix the power bat problem.
Amazingly, an outclassed, unprepared, out-managed, stupid, and just not very good team could get lucky enough to somehow successfully defend its AL East crown for the first time ever.
Bring on the playoffs. Anything can happen.
Bring on the playoffs. Anything can happen.
I am happy to be wrong, and that they won the division. Subconsciously I expect I had even less faith in my ability to predict than the team's ability to win.
This is a pretty good team for post-season baseball. We have an ace, a lights-out pen, good speed, and good defense except at 3B. The last two games have shown me that the D.S. could be a coin flip. Benintendi will have to turn it around. To me, he's the key. I think Fister starts game 3, and I feel confident that he will give a poised, professional performance. It'll be interesting to see if Farrell starts Hanley at DH, or if Nunez fills that role. It's difficult to justify keeping Nuney out of the line-up if he can swing and run. There are a lot of ways to get him into the lineup including DHing Devers, or even benching Pedroia.
I think it would be excellent to win the last game against HOU, just to sow some doubt in their minds that beating the Sox in the ALDS is not guaranteed. But the more important psychological benefit would be in the minds of the Sox young team that they can hang with the mighty Astros (I can't believe I just typed that given the Astros long and dominant team history - lol).
Considering neither team has anything to play for today, I don't expect anyone will sow anything with the outcome of the game. I expect it will be either be a AAA lineup for both sides or it will be treated like an early spring training game with the starters exiting after 1 or 2 ABs. Most of the players that contribute to a win or loss today probably won't be on either roster come Thursday.
Classic August too. Entering play on August 1, the Yankees held a half game lead on the Red Sox for the division. A tight two month race to the finish between two old rivals was as good as MLB could have drawn up.
From a win/loss perspective, the Red Sox have had their best two months in the last two months. August was their best month (18-9), but September's record was only one game worse (17-10). I think what makes it stand out less than it should, other than perhaps we're too close to the day-to-day stuff to see the bigger picture, is that all the top teams in the AL have played superbly over the last two months...
Top five AL teams since August 1:
Cleveland 44-13
Boston 35-19
New York 34-23
Minnesota 33-23
Houston 31-25
No surprise those are the five teams advancing to the post-season. No one is coasting into October.
From a win/loss perspective, the Red Sox have had their best two months in the last two months. August was their best month (18-9), but September's record was only one game worse (17-10). I think what makes it stand out less than it should, other than perhaps we're too close to the day-to-day stuff to see the bigger picture, is that all the top teams in the AL have played superbly over the last two months...
Top five AL teams since August 1:
Cleveland 44-13
Boston 35-19
New York 34-23
Minnesota 33-23
Houston 31-25
No surprise those are the five teams advancing to the post-season. No one is coasting into October.
Any forecasts or speculation about the times for the Sox first two games? Could it be as simple as the first two games will be the late games (Houston v. Cleveland/Central v. Eastern time zones)?
The markets will drive the decision-making, more likely than not. With the largest getting the primetime slot. So if the Yankees win the wildcard game, I can see their game at Cleveland being the primetime game (~8pm) with the Sox and Astros playing in the early afternoon (~4pm). If it's the Twins, I can see that flip-flopping...Houston/Boston markets top Cleveland/Minneapolis.
Houston was dead last in mlb at around 12% at throwing out base runners (Sox were second around 38%). I really hope the Sox exploit this. They aren't going to score runs in bunches via the HR, so they'll have to find other ways.
Glass is half full for me
Count me as half full. While the Sox won't be favored in any match-up (excepting the very unlikely event of facing Minnesota), they've got a reasonable chance of winning a short series. Win two and they're in the world series. Get knocked out in one, and they probably get a new manager. Win, win.
Christ, here we go with the manager crap again. Teams that win the division don't fire their managers for losing the division series. It's very simple.
Additionally, managers that can lead a team to win their division 3/5 of the time generally get to stay as long as they please.
Additionally, managers that can lead a team to win their division 3/5 of the time generally get to stay as long as they please.
So if they win the world series -- thereby making a managerial change quite unlikely -- it's "win, lose"? Is that how this works?
A Monday without baseball is depressing... but not nearly as depressing as it would have been had we been forced to play game 163.
Time to toast with our half-full glasses, chug, and refill it for the post season.
Only question now... do we refill it half full or half empty?
Time to toast with our half-full glasses, chug, and refill it for the post season.
Only question now... do we refill it half full or half empty?
Playoff glass is definitely half empty. Injuries and underperforming offense.... starting pitching looks weaker than Houston lately....
yes anything can happen....
Once NY knocks off Minnesota, a strong case could be made that the Red Sox are the weakest of the 4 AL teams, and maybe the weakest of the 8 remaining playoff teams.
Yet they absolutely have a legit chance of winning it all.
The glass' volume has 50% water and 50% air in it. How's that for equivocation?
Yet they absolutely have a legit chance of winning it all.
The glass' volume has 50% water and 50% air in it. How's that for equivocation?
I feel like they are going to need something unlikely to happen in each series in order to advance, unless they play the Twins.
You know, one of those games where the third starter puts it together for 6 scoreless by guys just missing his few bad pitches and a few hard shots hit right at guys, while the offense eeks out a one run win or something. Or Verlander goes on tilt because he gets squeezed. Something like that. Playing the next two series straight up with the breaks and weirdness evening out, I just don't see a path to beating Houston and NY or Cleveland. And I also think the chances of getting good fortune or the breaks in two separate series against opponents of this quality seems remote. I could see the Sox picking off Houston, Cleveland or New York in a 5-game series. I can't see them picking off two of those teams in two different series.
Hope to be wrong, and that's why we watch, right?
You know, one of those games where the third starter puts it together for 6 scoreless by guys just missing his few bad pitches and a few hard shots hit right at guys, while the offense eeks out a one run win or something. Or Verlander goes on tilt because he gets squeezed. Something like that. Playing the next two series straight up with the breaks and weirdness evening out, I just don't see a path to beating Houston and NY or Cleveland. And I also think the chances of getting good fortune or the breaks in two separate series against opponents of this quality seems remote. I could see the Sox picking off Houston, Cleveland or New York in a 5-game series. I can't see them picking off two of those teams in two different series.
Hope to be wrong, and that's why we watch, right?
I can just barely see a plausible path to beating the Astros -- lots of aggressive baserunning, taking advantage of Houston's atrocious defense, plus Sale back in Cy Young form. But the Indians? The Dodgers? Someone else will have to beat them first, because the Sox won't.
The Sox were 3-3 against the Astros (I throw out the meaningless game they played yesterday) and 4-3 against the Indians this year. I simply don't understand the view that they need some sort of miracle or a great deal of luck to win a 5 or 7 game series against either team.
I'm not going to argue that they can definitely beat either team in a series, but they're not some David vs Goliath type underdog either. No team is unbeatable in October.
I'm not going to argue that they can definitely beat either team in a series, but they're not some David vs Goliath type underdog either. No team is unbeatable in October.
This has been my perspective all along. Just last year we looked at the Indians' rotation and thought they had no real shot against the Red Sox. Well.... look what happened. It wasn't even miraculous. They were just better.
Absolutely the Red Sox could take 3 of 5 or 4 of 7 against ANY team in baseball. Without miracles needing to happen. Just normal baseball stuff like.... a little wildness, bloop hits, a ball curling foul instead of fair, etc.
The problem last year wasn't a question of rotation matchups, it was that the Red Sox hitters collectively stopped doing their jobs in the last week of September after being great all season.
In those three games the Sox were outscored 31 runs to 19.
Also the Astros pitcher for the two wins at Houston were Mike Fiers and Joe Musgrove, who are probably the 7th and 8th best starters on the Houston roster.
And as for the Indians games...yeah they already were extremely lucky to win 4 of 7. Remember the game when Moreland struck out for what should have been the final out? Or when Doug Fister somehow pitched a one-hitter? Those are the kind of miracles they'd need again.
Did anyone see any stories about the fact that literally every playoff position/matchup was determined by Saturday? That seems like it shouldn't be common...
Take away the 12 to 2 loss, and it’s 19 to 17 in the other games. One blowout skews those numbers.
Farrell's not going anywhere. I can see Chili getting replaced, but barring some bonehead managerial brain-fart in the D.S.,(a la he-who-shall-not-be-named in '03) Farrell's back to back division titles will put him back in the dugout next April. He did a good job with the pen all year, and the guys simply didn't hit. Put Shaw and Encarnacion on this team and you're probably looking at 100 wins.
This.
I'm not the biggest Farrell fan, but in my book he's coming out ahead here in a year where the lineup core was exposed as being overrated going in. There is zero chance he still wins this division anyway and then loses his job just because Mookie Betts and co might not be as good outside the 2016 season as some people had hoped and projected them out to be.
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I have to agree because Farrell outperformed the Pythag with no hitting stars and managed to coach the team to be aggressive and good defensively and take advantage of the hitting they did get to score just enough runs to beat the Yanks.
The extra inning record, and frankly the runs scored vs runs allowed record by inning are really stark after the 5th inning. I posted the table in a game thread last week, and it really is amazing how the Red Sox outscore their opponents consistently in the late and extra innings. Will post it again later tonight.