Testing Your Draft Acumen

moly99

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Jun 28, 2007
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Periodically I like to do a "rebuild draft" where I pretend to draft an entire team from scratch using the following selections: 3, 5, 7, 9, 15, 20, 30, 35, 45, 60. That is essentially what you would get out of two years of trading away all of the assets of a bad team and rebuilding purely from the draft.

Example: today when I was cleaning out my laptop files I came across my picks from the 2012 draft.

PICK : POS : NAME : ESPN DRAFT PROJ : 2015/2016 PER
#3 : C : Andre Drummond (5) 21.30
#5 : SF : Harrison Barnes (6) 12.32
#7 : SG : Jeremy Lamb (9) 15.92
#9 : PF : Terrence Jones (14) 13.56
#15 : PG : Kendall Marshall (18) 6.77
#20 : C : Fab Melo (23) out of NBA
#30 : PG : Tyshawn Taylor (34) out of NBA
#35 : SG/SF : Hollis Thompson (44) 9.24
#45 : PF : Eric Griffin (51) out of NBA
#60 : SG : Bradford Burgess (109) out of NBA

I really encourage every wannabe GM to try making a list of who they would pick sometime. Not only does it give you a bit more sympathy for the difficulty of drafting well, it also shows the weakness of your own thinking. The same logic that led me to think it was a good idea to pick Andre Drummond at #3 also led me to think Fab Melo would be a good pick at #20.

Fan anger can actually influence ownership decisions on firing coaches and GM's, so I think it is important for people to understand that nobody in the world is going to hit on every prospect in the draft or avoid every bust. Being unhappy that Danny missed on Giannis A~ or rolled the dice on Fab Melo is silly.

The worst part about this list? I still actually believe in Kendall Marshall even though he now plays in the D-League. He can't create his own shot but he is a good distributor and shooter.
 
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Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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Interesting.
I'm going to post 2016 (is it cheating that I've had 3/4 of a season... nah) for future consulting
3- Brown
5- Murray
7- Chriss
9- Sabonis
15- Zizic
20- Levert (almost went Scal)
30- Brogdan
35- McCaw
45- Jackson
60- Yogi Ferrell
 
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smastroyin

simpering whimperer
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Jul 31, 2002
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Bender was picked 4th? I think I'm missing the assumptions of this game.
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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I still don't get the game. If it's a re-draft why is Yogi Ferrell 60th?
 

Schnerres

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Apr 28, 2009
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I still don't get the game. If it's a re-draft why is Yogi Ferrell 60th?
If I get it, you have to make these picks from the players that are undrafted at the time of the pick. So No.3 last year, you can pick anyone besides Ingram and Simmons, at No.5, Brown and Bender are out, too. So if you pick 60, you can pick No.60 (Tyrone Wallace) or everybody who went undrafted (you).
 

Plantiers Wart

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Oct 16, 2002
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I'll take a crack with 2010

3 - Derrick Favors PF
5 - Boogie Cousins C
7 - Greg Monroe C/F
9 - Paul George F
15 - Eric Bledsoe PG
20 - Grievas Vasquez PG
30 - Hassan Whiteside C
35 - Lance Stephenson G
45 - Jeremy Evans F
60 - Jeremy Lin G
 

smastroyin

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I think the idea is draft the player available but with the idea of constructing a team rather than simply taking all BPA. As well, I assume this is an activity for the day after the draft, and kind of ignores the trickle down of your changed choices - i.e. the 2012 example where you take Drummond 3rd would you assume Cleveland still takes Waiters or do you assume they'll take Beal?

Looking back at 2012 and the way it shook down, what's the best one could do (sorry I was looking at 2012 earlier, see the 2016 draft thread) assuming noone jumps up as a result of your choices? Making the choice of the best player available at your pick that's not available at your next pick, I get something like

3 - Beal (3) SG
5 - Lillard (6) PG
7 - Barnes (7) SF/PF
9 - Drummond (9) C
15 - Jones (18) PF
20 - Fournier (20) - SG/SF (or Sullinger or Plumlee but with the benefit of hindsight I need more guards)
30 - Crowder (34) SF
35 - Green (35) SF/PF
45 - O'Quinn (49) C/PF
60 - Whatever PG I could find.
 

Cellar-Door

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If I get it, you have to make these picks from the players that are undrafted at the time of the pick. So No.3 last year, you can pick anyone besides Ingram and Simmons, at No.5, Brown and Bender are out, too. So if you pick 60, you can pick No.60 (Tyrone Wallace) or everybody who went undrafted (you).
Correct. The premise is that at the time or shortly after a draft you select who YOU would have picked of the players available at that slot, then go back in a few years and see how it did.
 

smastroyin

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I think that's hard to actually do without having notes lying around. We could probably dig up the last few year's threads.

Given the way everyone "remembers" wanting the Greek Freak in 2013, I think it's hard to really look back honestly.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think that's hard to actually do without having notes lying around. We could probably dig up the last few year's threads.

Given the way everyone "remembers" wanting the Greek Freak in 2013, I think it's hard to really look back honestly.
yeah you aren't really supposed to look back is the point. That's why I put up 2016 because it's way too early to tell. Moly99's is a list made in 2012 and re-visited now.
 

moly99

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The point is not to look back at drafts from previous years, but to pick players in an upcoming draft. Then you can look back at it in four or five years and see how good you really are at picking players. Having to build a functional team instead of picking 5 point guards also forces you to deal with the problem of positional scarcity: it is easier to find combo guards than it is to find centers, for example.

Fans think they are geniuses and GM's are idiots because we remember all of the times we were right about a guy and forget about all of the players we liked that end up out of the NBA. Having a report card for yourself helps correct for unrealistic expectations. It's a lot harder to complain about Ainge picking Olynyk instead of the Greek Freak when you remember that you would have picked Dennis Schroder.
 

Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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Interesting exercise. I'm going to wait until the tournaments are over, though, before making my 2017 picks.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Nov 19, 2008
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What list are we going off for this? I'm going use the Tankathon mock draft, which takes into account team needs, I believe. If I click until the C's wind up with the 3rd pick in the draft, right now I'd go with:

3- Josh Jackson SF
5- Malik Monk SG
7- Frank Ntilikina PG
9- Justin Patton C (hate this pick bc I don't know anything about him)
15- Lauri Markkanen PF
20- Harry Giles PF
30- Dillon Brooks SF
35- Alonzo Trier SG
45- Frank Mason PG
60- Euro big man HRB has been scouting for 10 years that has a name I can't pronounce.

It's tough to put this list together right now, but I'll update right before/after the draft.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Oct 2, 2007
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I feel like I'm missing something. I went with the same draft as the original post, just to keep things easy. Is there a reason why these couldn't be the picks?

3. Bradley Beal
5. Damien Lillard
7. Andre Drummond
9. John Henson
15. Mo Harkless
20. Evan Fournier
30. Jae Crowder
35. Draymond Green
45. Kyle O'Quinn
60. Kent Bazemore

So my starting 5 would be:

Lillard/Beal/Crowder/Green/Drummond

With Fournier, Bazemore, Harjless, Henson, and O'Quinn off the bench.

Seems like a pretty elite team to me, but again, I feel like I'm missing something.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Seems like a pretty elite team to me, but again, I feel like I'm missing something.
You're supposed to do this prior to (or shortly after) the draft in question and then see how the players pan out. It's a lot easier to figure out who the good players are if you have 4 years of data to include.

For example, in 2012, a lot of Cs fans were screaming for DA to take Perry Jones and probably would have taken him with the 20th pick. Oh well, what do we know?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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You're supposed to do this prior to (or shortly after) the draft in question and then see how the players pan out. It's a lot easier to figure out who the good players are if you have 4 years of data to include.

For example, in 2012, a lot of Cs fans were screaming for DA to take Perry Jones and probably would have taken him with the 20th pick. Oh well, what do we know?
I was elated we got Sullinger at 21. A lottery pick that fell to us because of back issues. It probably ended up being a great pick in the grand scheme of things. Not so elated on Melo at 22 but that's the kind of pick people yell at Danny for not making (he plays it too safe, doesn't swing for the fences). Plus I doubt anyone had Miles Plumlee, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton or Will Barton going in the middle first round. I mean, Miles Plumlee did but are we really crying over missing out on Miles Plumlee?

I also loved the Gerald Green pick when he made it. A guy who was once considered a top 5 talent who fell down the board on draft night. Avery Bradley, same thing. Those are generally the types of picks I like. It landed us Paul Pierce who was projected as high as #2. But it also could have landed us guys like Maciej Lampe, who I also wanted.
 
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Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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I'll give it a shot for this year, but reserve my right to make changes before June 22. I'll use the current Draft Express 2017 mock to determine availability.
3 Jason Tatum
5 Lauri Markkanen
7 Robert Williams
9 Frank Ntilikina
15 Justin Patton
20 Jonathan Motley
30 Thomas Bryant
35 Josh Hart
45 Wesley Iwundu
60 Allonzo Trier
 

MarkBT

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Aug 7, 2008
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What list are we going off for this? I'm going use the Tankathon mock draft, which takes into account team needs, I believe. If I click until the C's wind up with the 3rd pick in the draft, right now I'd go with:
Did the same. Simulated until I got C's @ 3. Here's how I would pick it...going with the Brad Stevens' "Ball Handlers, Wings, Swings, and Bigs" team-building framework

3 - Josh Jackson, Swing, Kansas
5 - Jonathan Isaac, Swing , FSU
7 - Frank Ntilikina PG, Ball Handler, Germany
9 - Miles Bridges, Swing, Mich St
15 - Lauri Markkanen, Big, Arizona
20 - Jawun Evans, Ball Handler, Ok State
30 - Dillon Brooks, Wing, Oregon
35 - Justin Jackson, Wing, UNC
45 - Ethan Happ, Big, Wisc.
60 - Bryant Crawford, Ball Handler, Wake Forest

Projected Starting Lineup:


BH - Ntilikina
Wing - Brooks
Swing - Jackson
Swing - Isaac
Big - Markkanen

6th Men - Bridges & Evans

Against bigger teams, may start Happ in place of Isaac. Against smaller teams, would start Bridges in place of Markkanen.

The team would definitely get up and down the court, and can shoot from multiple positions, but we'd be exposed to teams that had really good inside players.
 

Big John

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Ntilikina is actually Ruandan. His parents emigrated to Belgium and then moved to Strasbourg, where he grew up and where he now plays.