That's a lot of INTs, but they got 5 in that one game against Denver (aka Manning's benching) and 4 more in 2 games against All Pros Landry Jones and Jimmy Claussen.
That's great, but who are the Chefs?
- Thread starter Devizier
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Was it the weather that hurt the Pats from bottling up the Broncos run game or was it Hightower leaving the game with injury? Losing their best run defender can't just be glossed over. I have much more confidence in the Pats stopping the run with a healthy and active Hightower on the field.
The problem there is what are the chances that Hightower will start the game near 100% and finish the game? It would be nice if pre sickness Collins was back. He has been a shell of his former self since coming back. At this point I'd be happy with either of them at 100%. I think they both have been closer to 75% when they have been on the field recently.
Seems to me like two weeks off (and honestly more than that given their lower PT down the stretch) could help a lot with Collins getting back to full strength and Hightower dealing with nagging injury. Might be just me though.
I thought Collins looked better in the Week 17 game. No Hightower (and no Siliga) for that game hurt the stoutness of the run defense.
Just tweeted
Jeremy Maclin just came through the Chiefs' locker room. He's not answering questions. His right ankle is wrapped and he's not practicing, but he's moving around well for a guy with a high-ankle sprain.
Adam Teicher ESPN Staff Writer
Jeremy Maclin just came through the Chiefs' locker room. He's not answering questions. His right ankle is wrapped and he's not practicing, but he's moving around well for a guy with a high-ankle sprain.
Adam Teicher ESPN Staff Writer
This is gamesmanship if I ever heard it.
going out of his way to call a high ankle sprain a "mild" sprain seems like he's really trying to paint a certain picture for public consumption. If it was mild, why say it? Why present it to the media?
This is almost proof positive to me that, even if Maclin plays, it will be as nothing more than a decoy.
I think it is a bluff too. But it will work well enough for Reid if he gets the Pats to waste time on a game plan around taking Maclin away.
You know, someone above already rightfully pointed out that none of us will be able to pronounce the name of that team correctly again...kind of like the Astors.
Fuck the Chefs.
Fuck the Chefs.
Anyone who watches those Belichick specials knows he's preparing for Maclin to play regardless of what Andy Reid (or anyone else) says.
This game is pretty screwy in terms of prediction/evaluation systems. 538's ELO has this game basically as a push (51%/49% Pats), ESPN's FPI has the Pats as more like 64%/36% favorites, while DVOA has KC ranked much higher and gives them almost double the Pat's chances to win the Super Bowl (which by necessity means winning this game), though only a 52%/48% to win this game (because while the odds of making the AFC championship game are close for both teams, their system sees KC as much more likely to win it).
Basically all three systems see Ari and Den as heavy favorites, and all three favor Car (though DVOA only very slightly). However FPI is running its predictions (and from what I recall that is that FPI is based on marginal expected points added on a per play basis to get the ranking, and then monte carlo simulator on those outputs), it seems to have significantly more lopsided projections than the others. I know that they add modifiers into the prediction engine after computing the raw rating scores to account for things like seasonality, home field, days of rest, etc., which would seem to double count those factors a bit (as they were already affecting the inputs for the rating), but it is interesting how confident they are in the Pats given the lack of agreement from the other systems.
Basically all three systems see Ari and Den as heavy favorites, and all three favor Car (though DVOA only very slightly). However FPI is running its predictions (and from what I recall that is that FPI is based on marginal expected points added on a per play basis to get the ranking, and then monte carlo simulator on those outputs), it seems to have significantly more lopsided projections than the others. I know that they add modifiers into the prediction engine after computing the raw rating scores to account for things like seasonality, home field, days of rest, etc., which would seem to double count those factors a bit (as they were already affecting the inputs for the rating), but it is interesting how confident they are in the Pats given the lack of agreement from the other systems.
Probably not, but in a lot of games this season, they've either rolled the majority of the game with Butler on the #1 or the #2.
Just wondering how we'd use our assets in this case.
I'm hoping for 10 corner blitzes from Butler this game. Let's really show something opposing offenses are not expecting.
My memory is that in previous season the Patriots (especially the defense) routinely looked better according to Brian Burke's EPA numbers than DVOA. In general I'm more inclined to trust an expected point based metric than a black box like DVOA or a deliberately simplified metric like ELO or SRS.
I don't think any of them attempt to adjust for injuries, and I know they don't adjust for stuff like Belichick suddenly going ultra-conservative in the last four weeks, both of which make me less inclined to believe a statistical prediction methodology.
From the scant information available (thanks ESPN), the covariances between inputs for the FPI model are taken into account. I prefer models based on EPA, but one should keep in mind that it has stronger offensive year-to-year correlation than defensive; possibly due to the consistency at QB for many teams.
I think Burke mentioned (in an interview) that FPI attempts to account for which QB is starting. However, I'm not sure how good of a prediction one can make on backups.
EDIT: FPI does try to take into account "garbage time", however, the methodology has not been clarified. It certainly does not take into account how Belichick coaches (although what people have learned from EPA models typically agrees with most of Belichick's GM and coaching decisions).
Just saw an interesting stat: when Alex Smith's opponent scores 24+ points, his team is 3-41-1.
It's not necessarily all that telling, but I do think it implies something interesting. For comparison, counting his season I believe Brady is 43-45, which is ridiculous, whereas guys like Big Ben and Romo and Steve Young and Jay Cutler are roughly 15-30.
Here's the link: https://m.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/2nwvbe/alex_smiths_record_when_the_opponent_scores_24_is/
It's not necessarily all that telling, but I do think it implies something interesting. For comparison, counting his season I believe Brady is 43-45, which is ridiculous, whereas guys like Big Ben and Romo and Steve Young and Jay Cutler are roughly 15-30.
Here's the link: https://m.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/2nwvbe/alex_smiths_record_when_the_opponent_scores_24_is/
It amazes me that Reid starts off his press conferences rattling off the injuries and who is not going to practice that day. BB would never do that.
Bet this finds its way to BB...
Adam Teicher ESPN Staff Writer
The Chiefs are leaving the Arrowhead Stadium playing field covered, just in case they need it next week
Adam Teicher ESPN Staff Writer
The Chiefs are leaving the Arrowhead Stadium playing field covered, just in case they need it next week
Giving both the Patriots and the Broncos some bulletin board material.Bet this finds its way to BB...
Adam Teicher ESPN Staff Writer
The Chiefs are leaving the Arrowhead Stadium playing field covered, just in case they need it next week
Covering the field is a non story. In a world filled with non stories, that is the non storiest of them all.
Chiefs fans seem bothered by the Ware injury, per this thread:
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1/13/10762072/chiefs-vs-patriots-spencer-wares-injury-keeps-him-out-of-practice
Much as the Pats miss Lewis, the Chiefs not having Jamaal Charles is more than an even trade-off. Ware hobbled adds to that.
edit: all the more so if it's a rainy/wet snow-y slippery surface, to which Ware's style is pretty well suited (as is Jackson's).
fake edit: damn am I ready for this game. Great having the bye and all that....but so ready for Saturday to get here.
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1/13/10762072/chiefs-vs-patriots-spencer-wares-injury-keeps-him-out-of-practice
Much as the Pats miss Lewis, the Chiefs not having Jamaal Charles is more than an even trade-off. Ware hobbled adds to that.
edit: all the more so if it's a rainy/wet snow-y slippery surface, to which Ware's style is pretty well suited (as is Jackson's).
fake edit: damn am I ready for this game. Great having the bye and all that....but so ready for Saturday to get here.
Morse's and Duvernay-Tardif's concussions seem somewhat overlooked. Morse started all but one game at C this year, DT is the starting RG, and either or both being unable to play would IMHO be a pretty big blow for the Chiefs.
It looks the weather is going to be less of a factor than first thought. Should be just rain, not a whole lot of it, and mostly ending by gametime.
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:02035.1.99999
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:02035.1.99999
Really good piece by Bedard talking about how the Pats offense and Chiefs defense match up:
http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/01/14/nfl-playoffs-blanket-coverage-manning-brady-julian-edelman
http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/01/14/nfl-playoffs-blanket-coverage-manning-brady-julian-edelman
on the ref crew, Seifert has this:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/195907/scouting-the-referees-for-nfl-divisional-playoff-weekend
I like the offensive pass interference number a lot, and am sure Gronk does, too.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/195907/scouting-the-referees-for-nfl-divisional-playoff-weekend
Also that his crew called a lot of pre-snap penalties, which benefits the team that is a.) more disciplined, and b.) at home. Obviously a lot can change in 60 minutes, but as of today this seems like the ideal draw for us.
When they say his crew, if they are referencing his crew from regular season it's kind of meaningless for this game.
Aren't these "all-star" teams of refs. You need to get into the calls of individual linesman, umpires, side judges, etc to make any definitive call.
Aren't these "all-star" teams of refs. You need to get into the calls of individual linesman, umpires, side judges, etc to make any definitive call.
Ben Volin @BenVolin 6s6 seconds ago
For #Chiefs, Maclin, Hali, and OLs Morse and Duvernay-Tardif did not practice for 2nd day in a row. Justin Houston (knee) Limited
For #Chiefs, Maclin, Hali, and OLs Morse and Duvernay-Tardif did not practice for 2nd day in a row. Justin Houston (knee) Limited