The 2017-18 Brooklyn Nets: Who Cares?

sox311

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That's what she said.
I agree with all you said HRB, this year however, the Mozgov contracts will be much smaller. It seems Baynes will get paid, but not the 16M number someone like Ian Mahinmi was paid or 15 Mozgov got. The correction overall won't allow that, last year was the Wild West. I could be wrong too though. Center/Traditional PF is an interesting spot this year. With less money and emphasis on the position.

Someone could sign early and get paid big like Olynyk or Mirotoc, then the rest of them may have to hang around and fight for scraps as the other teams fill out their rosters.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I thought KO was going to get paid well this off season but now I'm not so sure. Seems a lot of teams are in the process and contending teams would rather allot that money elsewhere.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I agree with all you said HRB, this year however, the Mozgov contracts will be much smaller. It seems Baynes will get paid, but not the 16M number someone like Ian Mahinmi was paid or 15 Mozgov got. The correction overall won't allow that, last year was the Wild West. I could be wrong too though. Center/Traditional PF is an interesting spot this year. With less money and emphasis on the position.

Someone could sign early and get paid big like Olynyk or Mirotoc, then the rest of them may have to hang around and fight for scraps as the other teams fill out their rosters.
I don't consider Olynyk or Mirotic "bigs" in the sense of the types who have traditionally been overpaid are true 5's who can defend size in the paint (although neither will be starving). I disagree that there is less emphasis on the position from the point of roster construction. Only 12 months ago we saw Drummond get 5/$130m, Mozgov 4/$64m, Whiteside 4/$98m, Howard 3/$70m, Noah 4/$72m, Biyumbo 4/$72m, Horford 4/$113m, Mahinmi 4/$64m, Leonard 4/$41m......and non-rotational bigs like Aldrich and Marjanovic got over $7m per on multi-year deals.

These guys have always gotten paid and are still being paid.....I don't expect the summer of 2017 to change any of this. I expect Baynes to sign something in the 4/$55m vicinity give or take $5m or so.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Nets pick up options on Kilpatrick and Harris and decline McDaniels.

Post-draft pre-FA roster:
Lin/Whitehead/Dinwiddie
Russell/Kilpatrick/Goodwin
Levert/Harris/Nicholson
Hollis-Jefferson/Booker/Acy
Mozgov/Allen/Hamilton

All 15 contracts guaranteed I believe, once Allen signs. They have plenty of cap space but the best way to leverage it is probably to absorb a bad contract or two to add some assets. More Lin/Booker types grabs them some wins but don't really know what it does for them in the long run. Last I read is that they do plan to be in the mix for RFA again but the best of the bunch will again be matched. I am watching out for Olynyk, who's a pretty good fit there.
 

ishmael

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I didn't watch the Raptors extensively last season, but it seems like DeMarre Carroll is a significant talent upgrade over Justin Hamilton (and provides solid veteran leadership for their young guys at the 3/4 spot).

If Lin stays healthy and Russell takes a step forward, I could see this Nets roster winning 30+ games in the East (and potentially passing Orlando, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Knicks in the process).

That said, Russell has never showed a ton of maturity and Lin has always had trouble staying on the court. Sean Marks will also be looking to cash in on Carroll or any other vet at the deadline if he can move them to a contender for another 1st round pick.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I didn't watch the Raptors extensively last season, but it seems like DeMarre Carroll is a significant talent upgrade over Justin Hamilton (and provides solid veteran leadership for their young guys at the 3/4 spot).

If Lin stays healthy and Russell takes a step forward, I could see this Nets roster winning 30+ games in the East (and potentially passing Orlando, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Knicks in the process).

That said, Russell has never showed a ton of maturity and Lin has always had trouble staying on the court. Sean Marks will also be looking to cash in on Carroll or any other vet at the deadline if he can move them to a contender for another 1st round pick.
The Nets made a great move in adding a stabilizing veteran in Carroll and while his pricetag is high for what he brings on the floor this is the type of player the Nets needed to add. As I mentioned upthread I still believe the Nets success will depend on Lin but that is only to bump them into the mid-20's and out of the basement.....I can't envision them winning 30+ even if they eventually sign Caldwell-Pope. The chemistry with KCP, Carroll, and Russell figures to be a challenge for them.
 

mcpickl

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I didn't watch the Raptors extensively last season, but it seems like DeMarre Carroll is a significant talent upgrade over Justin Hamilton (and provides solid veteran leadership for their young guys at the 3/4 spot).

If Lin stays healthy and Russell takes a step forward, I could see this Nets roster winning 30+ games in the East (and potentially passing Orlando, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Knicks in the process).

That said, Russell has never showed a ton of maturity and Lin has always had trouble staying on the court. Sean Marks will also be looking to cash in on Carroll or any other vet at the deadline if he can move them to a contender for another 1st round pick.
That would be stunning.

Is their starting five right now Mozgov Hollis-Jefferson Carroll Lin Russell?

They aren't going to be able to score.

I'd say right now their roster is worse than they opened with last season.

The shadow tank is real.
 

southshoresoxfan

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The Nets made a great move in adding a stabilizing veteran in Carroll and while his pricetag is high for what he brings on the floor this is the type of player the Nets needed to add. As I mentioned upthread I still believe the Nets success will depend on Lin but that is only to bump them into the mid-20's and out of the basement.....I can't envision them winning 30+ even if they eventually sign Caldwell-Pope. The chemistry with KCP, Carroll, and Russell figures to be a challenge for them.
Nets or Chicago will be the worst team in the league. They will struggle to win 20 games.
 

bowiac

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Based on the current rosters, I've got the Nets as the 4th worst team in the NBA right now, in a clear tier above the Lakers and Hawks and essentially tied with the Magic, Kings, Suns, and Bulls.

Using the 2017 schedule as a proxy for the 2018 schedule (not yet released), I've got Brooklyn at a 25 win team. Lakers and Hawks at 14 and 16 wins respectively. This is like a version 0.1 of my win projections, so there will be a lot of changes, on top of actual roster changes.
 
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Spelunker

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Based on the current rosters, I've got the Nets as the 4th worst team in the NBA right now, in a clear tier above the Lakers and Hawks and essentially tied with the Magic, Kings, Suns, and Bulls.

Using the 2017 schedule as a proxy for the 2018 schedule (not yet released), I've got Brooklyn at a 25 win team. Lakers and Hawks at 14 and 16 wins respectively. This is like a version 0.1 of my win projections, so there will be a lot of changes, on top of actual roster changes.
Ugh. Out of curiosity, where did you have them last year?
 

PedroKsBambino

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The Lakers, Suns, Magic and even Kings have a ton more upside projection than BKN, however. It might be all/most of the young guys crap out but the path to winning 30 games for all those guys is a lot easier to see than for BKN
 

Red Averages

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KCP signs with the Lakers. Anyone else they have a realistic shot of adding this offseason that meaningfully changes their upside projection?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The Nets have upgraded Andrew Nicholson's dead weight to Allen Crabbe's massive but playable contract. Shoots threes and does nothing else. Was among the worst players defensive players in the league (slight improvement over Bogdanovich for whom he is the de facto replacement). $18.5 mil. This felt inevitable.

Updated roster:
Lin/Whitehead/Dinwiddie
Russell/Carroll/Kilpatrick/Goodwin
Carroll/Levert/Harris
Hollis-Jefferson/Booker/Acy
Mozgov/Allen
 
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Wilco's Last Fan

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The Nets have upgraded Andrew Nicholson's dead weight to Allen Crabbe's massive contract. He shoots threes and does nothing else. Was among the worst players defensive players in the league (slight improvement over Bogdanovich for whom he is the de facto replacement). $18.5 mil. This felt inevitable after Portland's 2016 offseason.

Updated roster:
Lin/Whitehead/Dinwiddie
Russell/Kilpatrick/Goodwin
Levert/Crabbe/Harris
Hollis-Jefferson/Booker/Acy
Mozgov/Allen/Hamilton
They also added DeMarre Carroll, who is a decent fit at the wing. Crabbe could fit nicely into their run-and-gun style, they took the 4th-most 3PA last year but were in the mid-20s in 3p%. Definitely not a ton of defense to be had, but maybe they can win some shootouts.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
They are going to need shootouts for sure, they still stink.

Great move by PDX to clear some cap room. Straight salary dump, they are still past the tax apron though, and have someone who won't play instead of Crabbe, so who knows if it is a good move if they would like to contend at all in the next three years...

Crabbe
2017-18: $19,332,500
2018-19: $18,500,000
2019-20: $18,500,000 {Player Option}

Nicholson
2017-18: $6,362,998
2018-19: $6,637,002
2019-20: $6,911,007 {Player Option}

Would think both will be picking up those options.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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With the schedule out, I just wanted to quickly note that after a pretty easy 8 games in October, Brooklyn's November is a bear. Could find themselves in an early hole before anybody even gets hurt.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Funny reading back on this thread.

One thing that someone brought up that isn't going to help Danny is if the Nets are able to move Carroll for a first rounder at the deadline. But glad to see that Bowiac had Nets way above ATL in wins even in his first iteration.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Interesting sports science on Jarrett Allen, the Nets first round draft pick. He apparently has a greater defense sphere than Gobert. He also had the highest jumping reach in this year's draft at 12'1".

Note that Tatum was third.

 

Jed Zeppelin

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It's scary how strong the impulse is to make an aggressive and convincing argument that he sucks and that the Nets are terrible no matter what.

Oh well. I turn my attention West.
 

DJnVa

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Vegas O/U





Definitely not as down on the LAL as we seem to be, although this is also playing into their popularity a bit I would think.
 

lovegtm

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Vegas O/U





Definitely not as down on the LAL as we seem to be, although this is also playing into their popularity a bit I would think.
So there are 4 teams at or below the Nets' projection. All of them have STRONG incentive to tank. Then you have Indiana and Orlando and the Knicks above that, with decent tank incentive (although the Knicks have the Kristaps situation to worry about).

I'm not feeling great about the Nets pick at all if the Kyrie trade is voided. I also agree that the Lakers are probably getting a popularity boost on their line.
 

BigMike

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So there are 4 teams at or below the Nets' projection. All of them have STRONG incentive to tank. Then you have Indiana and Orlando and the Knicks above that, with decent tank incentive (although the Knicks have the Kristaps situation to worry about).

I'm not feeling great about the Nets pick at all if the Kyrie trade is voided. I also agree that the Lakers are probably getting a popularity boost on their line.
I think the tank incentive is built into the projections.

Lakers might be getting a bit of a popularity push, but then again I think they are a likely playoff team in the East. Of course they play in the West, which knocks 5 wins off at least.

In terms of the Knicks, Orlando, Indiana tanking Sure I guess that is possible, but I expect all 3 to be well within playoff contention into March.

When I looked at the Nets schedule, it seemed to be that other than the Bulls, who they play 3 times after Labor day, it seemed that they would likely be playing teams in playoff contention after Valentines day
 

lovegtm

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I think the tank incentive is built into the projections.
It's a pretty powerful tiebreaker though. So I'd argue that a Nets expectation of 28 wins is very different from a PHX 28 win expectation, since the latter gets to adjust their record on the fly relative to the former.
 

mauf

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It's a pretty powerful tiebreaker though. So I'd argue that a Nets expectation of 28 wins is very different from a PHX 28 win expectation, since the latter gets to adjust their record on the fly relative to the former.
But it's not a computer projection; what you're describing is presumably baked into the cake.

Now, if you want to say that one of those 4-5 sub-30 win teams is likely to fall apart and win fewer than 20, and that the Nets' incentives make them an unlikely candidate to be that team, then I would agree with that.
 

mauf

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Fun fact: 3 of the worst 8 seasons (by W%) in NBA history have happened since 2010.

http://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/worst_seasons.htm

From the same list, 10 teams since 2010 have failed to win more than 22% of their games (18-64 or worse in an 82-game season). IOW, at least one of those hapless, sub-30 win teams is likely to fall short of its O/U by a lot.
 

Kid T

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So there are 4 teams at or below the Nets' projection. All of them have STRONG incentive to tank. Then you have Indiana and Orlando and the Knicks above that, with decent tank incentive (although the Knicks have the Kristaps situation to worry about).

I'm not feeling great about the Nets pick at all if the Kyrie trade is voided. I also agree that the Lakers are probably getting a popularity boost on their line.

Even if the team has an incentive to tank, it's done at the management level. Not signing veteran FA's, giving more minutes to younger players and allowing them to develop through mistakes etc. I just can't see PLAYERS tanking or doing anything other than trying to win. Remember when the Celtics were just coming into their own and were on the cusp of making the playoffs? Stevens and I think it was IT who said they were doing everything they could to win and make the playoffs. I think even Ainge concurred saying you never want to teach anyone to lose/want to lose.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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I wonder if/how the less compressed schedule this year will affect win totals. With no more 4 games in 5 nights, fewer back to backs, etc., will good teams have less incentive to rest starters to keep them fresh since more rest is already baked into the schedule, and if so, will that mean more wins for teams at the top of the league, potentially at the expense of those at the bottom of the win total list? I wonder if someone has stats on whether the good teams tended to rest their starters more against bad teams or not.
 

lovegtm

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Even if the team has an incentive to tank, it's done at the management level. Not signing veteran FA's, giving more minutes to younger players and allowing them to develop through mistakes etc. I just can't see PLAYERS tanking or doing anything other than trying to win. Remember when the Celtics were just coming into their own and were on the cusp of making the playoffs? Stevens and I think it was IT who said they were doing everything they could to win and make the playoffs. I think even Ainge concurred saying you never want to teach anyone to lose/want to lose.
No doubt. But we all know the types of shenanigans that start happening late in the season when management has incentive to tank, and those have very real effects.
 

HomeRunBaker

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No doubt. But we all know the types of shenanigans that start happening late in the season when management has incentive to tank, and those have very real effects.
We saw this first hand with Pierce in 2006. It happened in LA last year when they shut down Mozgov and Deng just after trading Lou Williams......in Phoenix when they shut down a healthy Bledsoe. No doubt that tanking is still prevalent in the league but yes as you say it isn't the players or the coaches on the floor necessarily tanking......they may be less motivated to perform at their best but again this is a component of the culture set in play by the front office.
 

DJnVa

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The Ringer on the Nets: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/18/16308474/brooklyn-nets-2017-18-nba-preview

The Nets are an object of fascination in the Ringer sphere because of how quickly GM Sean Marks has cultivated something resembling an actual NBA team......

Should all go well, the team will be way more competitive than most are expecting. For any other team, that’s a backhanded compliment. For the Nets, it’s all they can hope to be in 2018. They’ll be out of their Garnett-trade-inflicted prison soon enough.
 

Montana Fan

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The Nets finish last year reminded me of the Celts finish the first year Stevens was here. They finished strong, for them. They went 11-11 before dropping the last 2 games. Marks looks to be a competent GM and Atkinson had them playing hard through the season. 30 wins for the Nets this year, that's my prediction.
 

DJnVa

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Which means Lonzo likely goes off for triple double tonight. Sheesh.
 

heavyde050

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Jesus Christ. 2017-2018 is not coming up Celtics so far.
Yeah....this is really unbelievable.
I know injuries happen, but this is crazy.
I trust Stevens to have the Celts play hard and they will still be a playoff team.
On the Nets front, will just need to root for them to be scrappy and other teams to just straight up tank.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In other bad news, I can't see anyone being worse than the Suns. Wow they look bad.
Those Bender and Chriss (and Len) high lottery picks don't seem to be working out too well. Makes you appreciate how Jaylen and Jayson have adapted to the league so far. Watching Josh Jackson jog up the court in the 4th quarter looking lost and disinterested was heartbreaking to me when on the other side you've got Tatum competing for minutes in a winning/competitive/learning culture.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Chriss was promising last year as a rookie. Is there a reason he didn't get many minutes last night?
 

Ale Xander

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Lin is out for the season per Woj. Ruptured patellar tendon.
Just saw his reaction on PTI when he fell. Wouldn't wish that feeling on anyone. Devastatingly painful emotionally.

I still can't bear myself to watch the GH reaction. Turned my face when saw it initially at the beak/turn and haven't looked at it since. Basketball may have fewer serious injuries, but the serious ones seem worse. Maybe with the lack of pads and helmets that football, hockey, etc. have.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Just saw his reaction on PTI when he fell. Wouldn't wish that feeling on anyone. Devastatingly painful emotionally.

I still can't bear myself to watch the GH reaction. Turned my face when saw it initially at the beak/turn and haven't looked at it since. Basketball may have fewer serious injuries, but the serious ones seem worse. Maybe with the lack of pads and helmets that football, hockey, etc. have.
They're more visible, too.