The 2017 Lineup

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It seems to me that, given Farrell's track record "breaking in" young players, that although Benintendi may end the year batting 2nd, he'll likely start the season batting 9th.

We saw it with Mookie in 2014, that if AB continues to show the hitting talent seen in the minors and late last season, he won't be buried at the bottom too long.

I suspect that it will primarily be Panda and Moreland who are used to balance the top half of the lineup by handedness, at least out of the gate. Then, a bunch of shuffling around mid-May, or sooner if the offense struggles to plate runs.

 

[grimshaw]

It seems to me that, given Farrell's track record "breaking in" young players, that although Benintendi may end the year batting 2nd, he'll likely start the season batting 9th.

I'd be really surprised if he hit behind the catcher, but I think something like 7th or 8th is a reasonable prediction unless he tears it up in spring training.

The closest comparison under Farrell is X circa 2013-14. He came up late in the year and got some playoff experience under his belt much like Benintendi. The next year he batted 7th to start the season behind guys like Carp, Sizemore and Nava.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I'd be really surprised if he hit behind the catcher, but I think something like 7th or 8th is a reasonable prediction unless he tears it up in spring training.

The closest comparison under Farrell is X circa 2013-14. He came up late in the year and got some playoff experience under his belt much like Benintendi. The next year he batted 7th to start the season behind guys like Carp, Sizemore and Nava.

That list, in comparison to what the Sox will be rolling out this season, is the difference in my mind, between AB hitting 7th and him hitting 9th.

Assuming the Sox 6-7-8 are some combination of higher K-rate players like JBJ and Leon and Young, AB hitting 9th acts as the "second leadoff hitter" that managers love, while getting more experience facing MLB pitching.

 

[nvalvo]

Rosenthal reports the Red Sox are considering hitting Benintendi 3rd, which would prevent any stretches of three righties.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

So what does that do to the rest of the lineup?

Pedroia
Betts
Beni
Hanley
X
Panda
???

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So what does that do to the rest of the lineup?

Pedroia
Betts
Beni
Hanley
X
Panda
???

Moreland
catcher
JBJ

Or switch the catcher and JBJ. Not a whole lot else they can do.

 

[luckysox]

Didn't Betts move to the 4 hole late last season? I wonder if they might keep X in the 2:
Pedey R
X R
Beni L
Betts L
Hanley R
Moreland L
Panda S
Catcher RorL
JBJ L

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Didn't Betts move to the 4 hole late last season? I wonder if they might keep X in the 2:
Pedey R
X R
Beni L
Betts L
Hanley R
Moreland L
Panda S
Catcher RorL
JBJ L

I've never understood the logic of putting a guy with decent OB% 9th in the order. If it makes sense then why do NL teams (mostly) put the pitcher in the 9-hole?

 

[luckysox]

I've never understood the logic of putting a guy with decent OB% 9th in the order. If it makes sense then why do NL teams (mostly) put the pitcher in the 9-hole?

Honestly, JBJ produces nicely down there (highest OPS last year was from the 9 hole, and he has his 2nd most AB's from there), although he hit almost as solidly from the 6 and 8 positions. I think they like his relative speed there and that he can get on base in front of the top of the line up. Pedey at bat with JBJ on 1st or 2nd is better than Pedey at bat with nobody, Leon or Vazquez on 1st or 2nd. But I suppose you could move him to 6th and move everyone else down a peg.

 

[nvalvo]

I've never understood the logic of putting a guy with decent OB% 9th in the order. If it makes sense then why do NL teams (mostly) put the pitcher in the 9-hole?

The OBP is a touch more valuable in front of the good hitters at the top of the lineup.

So why do few NL teams do this? The presumption that there will be late-game PH requirements for an NL SP suggests moving the slot as far back as possible. If a pitcher is throwing well, you want to get as many IP as possible before the pitchers' spot comes up a third time.

 

[rotundlio]

I've never understood the logic of putting a guy with decent OB% 9th in the order. If it makes sense then why do NL teams (mostly) put the pitcher in the 9-hole?

Independent studies have shown that batting the pitcher 8th yields one or two additional runs per season. According to either source, you could bat the pitcher seventh with no discernible impact on run production. That proximity to the top of the lineup is valuable.

 

[simplicio]

Didn't Betts move to the 4 hole late last season? I wonder if they might keep X in the 2:
Pedey R
X R
Beni L
Betts L
Hanley R
Moreland L
Panda S
Catcher RorL
JBJ L

Betts isn't a lefty.

 

[luckysox]

Betts isn't a lefty.

Why must you ruin my narrative with your alternative facts?

Yeah, so scratch that.

 

[drbretto]

Is the whole LRLR thing really worth it? I understand the idea is that it prevents a team from being able to deploy a specialist late in the game, but you're still spending 2/3 of most games against the starter. Wouldn't a relentless assault from three right-handed lefty killers for 2/3 of the game not outweigh the theoretical advantage of limiting the effect of the occasional righty specialist?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Is the whole LRLR thing really worth it? I understand the idea is that it prevents a team from being able to deploy a specialist late in the game, but you're still spending 2/3 of most games against the starter. Wouldn't a relentless assault from three right-handed lefty killers for 2/3 of the game not outweigh the theoretical advantage of limiting the effect of the occasional righty specialist?

Are you talking about a hypothetical team facing the Red Sox, who have 7 LHSP on their 40-man roster and will likely start the season with 3-4 in the MLB rotation.

Or are you talking about the Red Sox, who aren't likely to face more than 3-4 lefty starters in the first three weeks of the season.

Because here's how the first six series seem to line up:

Pirates - none
Tigers - 1 LHP (Norris)
Orioles - none
Rays - 1 LHP (Snell)
Jays - 1 LHP (Happ)
Orioles - 1 LHP (Miley)

None of those guys worry me too much. Certainly not enough to give up a (minor) strategic advantage in the later innings.

 

[drbretto]

Just a hypothetical. I'm talking about the general convention where every lineup tries to alternate left and right, as opposed to trying to put three lefties in a row against a righty. Or vise versa. Not really trying to assert anything so much as just wondering how much of an advantage it really gives.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Just a hypothetical. I'm talking about the general convention where every lineup tries to alternate left and right, as opposed to trying to put three lefties in a row against a righty. Or vise versa. Not really trying to assert anything so much as just wondering how much of an advantage it really gives.

It would depend on actual splits more than handedness. But wouldn't you love it if an opposing team clustered all their batting splits to let us more effectively use our relievers?

 

[drbretto]

It would depend on actual splits more than handedness. But wouldn't you love it if an opposing team clustered all their batting splits to let us more effectively use our relievers?

It would be a better question if I had looked up stats to see how often that righty after the lefty wasted the prior batter's single by hitting into a double play or something to support the idea. I was just thinking out loud, though. I think even if there was an advantage to front loading consecutive proper splits, I guess I'll call it, bizzkill already killed my buzz and pointed out a different reason for it I wasn't thinking of, so its probably all moot anyway.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I was under the impression (listening to broadcasts) that the plan was (with projections):

Pedroia (.355 OBP, 35th last year in ppa)
Bogaerts (.345 OBP, 26th in ppa 2016)
Benintendi (.802 OPS)
Betts (.866 OPS)
Ramirez (.805 OPS)
...
Put Bradley at #9 and that's some pretty good speed 6 hitters in a row. No base-cloggers until you hit Sandoval, Moreland and Leon/Vazquez (if Swihart's not catching).


(or what Lucky said)

 

[BoSox_In_TX33]

We're done, right, aside from a Buch/Drew trade?

What the heck is the lineup next year? Where do you put X now? Not gonna start a new thread over this, but man - lot of ???'s

1. Pedroia
2. X
3. Betts
4. Hanley
5. Pablo
6. JBJ
7. Moreland
8. Catcher of the Day
9. Benintendi

The lineup is fine. Just because last year they crumbled last year in the playoffs against the Indians does not mean anything. I think they will miss Papi at first, but they will come into their own. With a much improved pitching staff I have high hopes for the Sox this year. If they do not make it to at least the ALCS I will be disappointed.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Bogaerts, like most RHH, has a spray chart that shows a concentration of ground balls to the shortstop. I'm pretty sure the only ones who don't would be LHH's Bradley and Moreland., neither of which make sense at #2. I think conventional wisdom was a #2 who could either hit the ball to the right side or bunt.

538 had a short piece about #2 hitters a couple of years back which I think everyone but me on SoSH read and memorized:

...research by Tango and his compatriots suggests teams have been doing it wrong. After examining how important each batting event (single, double, walk, etc.) is to each lineup slot — based on factors such as how many runners are likely to be on base and how many outs they’re likely to hit with — the data says a team ought to bat its three best hitters in the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4 slots, with the most balanced hitter occupying the two-hole. That’s a far cry from the conventional wisdom of slotting the best hitter either third or fourth, and putting a weak contact specialist at No. 2.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

538 had a short piece about #2 hitters a couple of years back which I think everyone but me on SoSH read and memorized:

Yup, the current wisdom as I understand it goes like this:

Best three hitters at 1, 2 and 4, with 1 leaning OBP, 4 leaning SLG and 2 the most balanced guy.
Next two hitters at 5 and 3, preferably in that order. If it's a tossup in terms of overall ability, put the guy with more HR power at 3.
Remaining hitters in order of ability unless you do the pitcher-at-8 thing.

If you apply that formula to the Sox probable Opening Day lineup, using the mean of Steamer and ZiPS projections, you get something like this:

Bogaerts
Betts
Benintendi
Ramirez
Pedroia
JBJ
Sandoval
Moreland
Leon

....which already has decent L/R balance except for the cluster of LHH (I consider Pablo a LHH till he shows he can hit LHP again) from 6-8. The Sox' plan as currently floated solves that by moving Pedroia up to #1, flipping Betts and Benintendi, and moving JBJ to the 9 hole:

Pedroia
Bogaerts
Benintendi
Betts
Ramirez
Sandoval
Moreland
Leon
JBJ

Aside from the dubious wisdom of giving JBJ fewer PA than three hitters he's almost certainly better than, and the mild overpromotion of Pedroia, that's a very solid lineup. If Sandoval comes back at all, and Moreland gets the expected Fenway BABIP boost, and Benintendi continues to be The Boy Who Hits, it's better than solid.

 

[TonyPenaNeverJuiced]

(E5 Yaz posted this in Spring Training News, sorry for doubling up)

"It is what it is," he said. "As long as I'm in the lineup, I guess."

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Speculation that today's lineup is what Farrell plans to open the season with.

1. R - Pedroia
2. L - Benintendi
3. R - Betts
4. R - Ramirez
5. L - Moreland
6. R - Bogaerts
7. L - Bradley
8. S - Sandoval
9. R - Vazquez

The season starts in a week. Here's some historical context. Looks like we should expect minimal changes, with the general flow being maintained.

3/27/16: Betts-Pedroia-Bogaerts-Ortiz-Ramirez-Shaw-Holt-C-Bradley
4/5/16: Betts-Pedroia-Bogaerts-Ortiz-Ramirez-Shaw-Holt-C-Bradley

3/30/15: Betts-Pedroia-Ortiz-Ramirez-Sandoval-Napoli-Victorino-Bogaerts-C
4/6/15: Betts-Pedroia-Ortiz-Ramirez-Sandoval-Victorino-Bogaerts-C-Buchholz (NL)

3/25/14: Nava-Pedroia-Carp-Napoli-Sizemore-Bogaerts-C-Middlebrooks-Bradley
3/31/14: Nava-Pedroia-Ortiz-Napoli-Carp-Sizemore-Bogaerts-C-Middlebrooks

 

[Captaincoop]

Mitch Moreland is a 30-year-old with a career .315 OBP. Why do the Sox want him getting more at-bats than X and Bradley? It might get frustrating watching him come up after Mookie and Hanley and end rallies.

 

[Ale Xander]

Mitch Moreland is a 30-year-old with a career .315 OBP. Why do the Sox want him getting more at-bats than X and Bradley? It might get frustrating watching him come up after Mookie and Hanley and end rallies.

100%agreed

If you don't want all the righties in a row (Xander) or Bradley high since he did better at the bottom, then switch with Sandoval, pun intended. Pains me to say that, but it's better than Moreland.

 

[RedOctober3829]

There's no way Moreland should be hitting 5th. It should be as follows:

vs RHP
Pedroia
Benintendi
Betts
Ramirez
Sandoval
Bogaerts
Moreland
Leon
Bradley

vs. LHP when Hanley can play 1B
Pedroia
Bogaerts
Betts
Ramirez(1B)
Young(DH)
Benintendi
Leon
Sandoval
Bradley

 

[Al Zarilla]

There's no way Moreland should be hitting 5th. It should be as follows:

vs RHP
Pedroia
Benintendi
Betts
Ramirez
Sandoval
Bogaerts
Moreland
Leon
Bradley

vs. LHP when Hanley can play 1B
Pedroia
Bogaerts
Betts
Ramirez(1B)
Young(DH)
Benintendi
Leon
Sandoval
Bradley

Does Farrell have a history of moving a (hopefully) key hitter like Benintendi around in the order depending on handedness of the pitcher? I think I'd leave him in one place and see how he does.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Does Farrell have a history of moving a (hopefully) key hitter like Benintendi around in the order depending on handedness of the pitcher? I think I'd leave him in one place and see how he does.

I think a good use of each player's strengths would be to flip Bogaerts and Benintendi.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Opening day is posted

Pedroia
Beni
Betts
Hanley
Moreland
X
JBJ
Pablo
Leon

 

[RedOctober3829]

Sandoval is too low and Moreland is too high.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Yeah, I really don't get Sandoval at 8th. I don't much like Leon at 9th either. But that's mostly because of DP's DPs.

I'd probably have gone:

5. Bogaerts
6. Sandoval
7. Moreland
8. Leon
9. Bradley

Bradley's too good a hitter to bat ninth when he's hot, but you figure the use of a LHRP specualist will start with the first susceptible batter in the sequence.

The Sox definitely lose the least defense by replacing Panda with Holt, rather than Moreland with Selsky or Bradley with Young.

 

[shaggydog2000]

Sandoval is too low and Moreland is too high.

I'm going to guess that this years lineup is going to be the most in-flux of the last 15 years. Without Manny and/or Papi as the anchor points in the 3/4 spots, and no automatic lead-off guy, these guys are going to be shifted all over the place based on performance, injuries, and who they're facing. It will be interesting to see how it all settles out.

(Although I'm sure people are going to point out that Betts should be the new anchor in the 3 spot, we will have to see if that's what they choose to do with him, it's not like he's come off multiple seasons of being in that spot like we've had recently)

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Sandoval is too low and Moreland is too high.

I think they are going with the JBJ theory in that batting him lower puts less pressure. I'm sure the hope is that they can flip those 2 in a month or so. But remember, Pablo Sandoval was really really bad last time he was in a Red Sox uniform. Really bad.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I think they are going with the JBJ theory in that batting him lower puts less pressure. I'm sure the hope is that they can flip those 2 in a month or so. But remember, Pablo Sandoval was really really bad last time he was in a Red Sox uniform. Really bad.

This. It strikes me Farrell is taking a Show Me stance with Pablo this year. First the unwillingness to name him the starting 3B, and now batting him below Moreland. It seems like he wants to see how Pablo responds this time.

 

[MikeM]

I think they are going with the JBJ theory in that batting him lower puts less pressure. I'm sure the hope is that they can flip those 2 in a month or so. But remember, Pablo Sandoval was really really bad last time he was in a Red Sox uniform. Really bad.

Thinking Pablo should even take a turn is mostly an epic win at this point. No way he was hitting above 8th to start the year imo.

Fairly predictable lineup, other then my own preference to see JBJ and Moreland swapped.

 

[lexrageorge]

I don't really see an issue with batting Sandoval 8th to start the season. Wouldn't be totally surprising if he goes through an adjustment period at the plate during April/May. And I don't think it matters very much if a player like him is batting 6th or 8th at this point in the year.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I assume Moreland's spot at #5 has something to do with 22 HRs (beyond the obvious LHH behind Ramirez)

I'll try to embed his 2016 spray chart, but will probably fail miserably:

Edit: it shows some Monster shots

 

[johnnywayback]

As stated elsewhere, I think having all of Pedroia, Betts, Ramirez, and Bogaerts in your top 5 is less than ideal because it makes the bottom of the lineup real easy for a lefty to steamroll. Obviously, you're hoping one of Moreland, Sandoval, or Bradley hits well enough to justify slotting them in at #5 to avoid that scenario. I'm fine with giving Moreland the first crack at it.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I don't really see an issue with batting Sandoval 8th to start the season. Wouldn't be totally surprising if he goes through an adjustment period at the plate during April/May. And I don't think it matters very much if a player like him is batting 6th or 8th at this point in the year.

Panda won't pout, will he? Reason not to is his non participation in baseball last year, but in 958 MLB games started in his career, he's batted 8th just 9 times.

 

[simplicio]

Looks to me like they're stashing their slow guys at the bottom. Look for aggressive baserunning from the rest of the lineup?

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

This was 2 years ago. Opening day on road in NL park.

Boston Red Sox (0-0)

1. Mookie Betts, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, 1B
4. Hanley Ramirez, LF
5. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
6. Shane Victorino, RF
7. Xander Bogaerts, SS
8. Ryan Hanigan, C
9. Clay Buchholz, P

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I assume Moreland's spot at #5 has something to do with 22 HRs (beyond the obvious LHH behind Ramirez)

I'll try to embed his 2016 spray chart, but will probably fail miserably:

Edit: it shows some Monster shots

The problem with using spray charts is that players will be pitched differently according to ballpark.

My expectation is that Moreland will see a lot more pitches on the inner half of the plate in Fenway than he did in Arlington. Thus fewer opportunities to use the wall, and more challenges by pitchers to prove his low batting averages and .315 career OBP is fluky.

And, as I posted above, historically Farrell hasn't necessarily guessed right about how to slot the 5-6-7 hitters to start the season.

Rather, he seems to leave a fairly high level of "figuring out what the team's got" for adjustments based on what players show him in the early season.

 

[Mike F]

Aggressive until the top of the order comes up with Panda and/or Leon/Vasquez on base.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Aggressive until the top of the order comes up with Panda and/or Leon/Vasquez on base.

If they're on base in front of the top of the order, aggressive baserunning probably won't be all that high of a priority.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Moreland set a Redsox record today by doubling in 7 straight games.

 

[rotundlio]

Tops in contact rate, preeetty much first in walk-to-K ratio, second in hard-hit, top-six in liners, dead last in homerun-to-flyball ratio in April and second in popups. –1.7 runs cluster luck.

Pablo cannot carry us forever

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Through 554 at bats, the Redsox have a team ISO of .106. From 12-16 it was .155, .169, .125, .150, .180.

 

[pokey_reese]

Given that they play in Fenway still, that's shocking, but it IS April, if they can't steal some wall ball doubles on their long home stand next weeek, then worry.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Through 554 at bats, the Redsox have a team ISO of .106. From 12-16 it was .155, .169, .125, .150, .180.

It's unsustainable....

Pedroia 1 XBH 0 HR
Benny 5 XBH 1 HR
Mookie 4 XBH 1 HR
Hanley 3 XBH 0 HR
Xander 1 XBH 0 HR

Before today's game. Those aren't rate numbers that are going to continue.