No, it shouldn't stop them from adding power. Even if expecting an uptick from the B's they still will be below average in the power category. If they can go get Eric Hosmer to play 1B they should do it.
I still see there being little chance DD walks out of this winter without his power bat, but it does probably decrease the surrounding desperation factor and potential likelihood that we'd be in on a guy like Stanton (assuming Miami is serious enough about moving him that they look into going the Texas with A-Rod type route to do it)
This. They're already close to $135M before arbitration guys (let alone extensions).
I think they can fill most of those spots internally, and therefore cheaply, if they want. UI is pretty easy with Hernandez, Marrero and Lin in house. 6th SP with Wright, Velazquez and Johnson.
You lost me with the squeeze under math there at the assume no raises in arby part.
Not sure where I lost you. They're at $158M if all the arbitration guys got the exact same salary they got this year. They obviously will not, they'll all get raises. So when you factor in raises, plus the benefits addition, they'll have little room left to address 4th OF and 1B. Certainly not enough to go after Hosmer without breaking the ceiling.
I just want to jump into this conversation on this point, which should be obvious by now: There's more than one way to skin a cat (who came up with that phrase, btw?). You can win by bashing people to death with homers. You can win with a crazy great bullpen. You can win with dynamic and deep starting pitching and solid defense.
What about Logan Morrison? He will be a free agent, and shouldn't be all that expensive.
It depends on how much they cost, but restricting one's payroll for a 1B player with a career .155 ISO in his 28-34 year seasons seems like a bad idea to me; signing Hosmer is a lot like signing Sandoval; you simply are not getting a good player.
Want to re-sign him? Not especially. But if they decided to re-sign him for similar money again next year, I wouldn't be upset about it.
I'd be for bringing him back on similar money, probably even more depending on other options. Excluding the month and a half after he broke his toe, which I don't think is unreasonable if I'm going to cherry pick since 1) 6 weeks is a reasonable recovery period for a fracture and 2) it's easier to look at the numbers by removing the whole month of July, his line is .294/.380/.504. Not that that's necessarily representative of what we could expect, but somewhere in between that and his actual .249/.336/.427 line is decent value when we know he's also a positive defensively.
On the other hand and as a whole Moreland's overall #'s are currently sitting right around where one could have realistically expected them to be up to this point. Earning his salary this year and being good enough for next year's roster are two different things as well.
The excluding July numbers are a really fine slash line. And what might happen is that his July slump keeps his market value reasonable, making him a value signing again next year. Only thing that probably changes that is if he really contributes in September (and knock on wood, the postseason). But I think that is a problem the Sox would like to have.
Matter of preference and perspective I guess, but I'd be supremely disappointed if the organization shifted into a 'window' mindset. With the exception of Pedroia and Hanley, there's no one on this team that we need to worry about age wise. Their window is as long as they like it to be for the foreseeable future.
They might have one already, fairly small sample size but Travis has hit much better vs lefties than righties at every level the last 3 years.
If your idea of the forseeable future is the next 2 seasons after this one then sure, I agree. Hence what I'm referring to as our window. At least in more guaranteed terms.
Craig's and Rusney's salaries don't count towards the luxury tax. Most of the conversation here is based around staying under the luxury tax. I doubt their cost to Henry's pocketbook is nearly as big of a factor.
My point was that his season-long numbers are dragged down quite a bit by the period after he broke his toe and fell off a cliff. On June 13th, his wRC+, slugging, and ISO were 126, .495, and .210 (which would rank him tied for 14th, 19th, and 24th). Over the next month and a half they were 25, .244, and .087. And now this month they're back up to 153, .604, and .271. If the drop-off was directly linked to his injury (which is what I'm inclined to believe), he's an average first baseman without a large price tag. And as was stated, those season-long stats may keep his price down for next year.
I have to admit, I hadn't quite realized the depth of hitters at 1B. That .763 OPS is a little above league average (.751), but well below league average for first baseman. (You are correct, it's his 3rd best...out of 6 years. It's not like he's playing above his head at all. A career year would look more like the stats I cherry picked out sans injury.) If he's a league average hitter and plus defender at first, he's worth $6 mil. I don't think saying "he is one of the worst fulltime 1B in the league" is accurate, though, when you factor in his defense. He's near the bottom as a hitter, but near the top as a fielder. Baserunning is really a non-factor for most at the position. However, I do agree they can probably do better at first. The question may be how much they'd be willing to pay to improve there.
He's 24th in fWAR among qualified 1B this year. SSS caveat applies with the defensive numbers, but he's been below average by most metrics.
But he's been near the top of the league in most defensive metrics since moving to 1B full time. This year is the exception, and his fWAR is decreased, rather than increased, by that. If we're basing his value on 2017, in which he's played a month-plus with a fractured toe that can be pretty clearly linked with sub-par performance, he is one of the worst full time first baseman in the league. He's a 1-win player making $5.5 mil.
Recognizing that the title of this thread is the 2017 Lineup, it's clear that recent posts have morphed this into a discussion of whether there is a need to add a power bat in the offseason, and a general discussion of lineup construction. A major factor in both is the implications under the new CBA for exceeding the "luxury tax."
Great post, BBJ. Always count on you for timely analysis.
I think the bigger concern among the LT Preservation First crowd who are even looking that far ahead has more to do with potential compensation draft picks, which *is* a big deal in the grander scheme of things (if/when they apply) given we've made out fairly well in that regard over the years. The difference to my understanding being that a $50m+ contract going elsewhere will net you a post-1st round pick if you are under, but gets pushed back to post-4th if over to LT.
If DD ends up going mostly all in on wanting to add the best possible bat he can this winter, I personally wouldn't completely discount the Moustakas possibility still being on that table if the price on him is deemed right in comparison to what else is out there.
Maybe he should have a day off - hasn't had one since Aug 6th, and he has only missed 5 games all season.
It's not so much infatuation as I see it being DD, the same guy who once moved Miggy back across the diamond to make room for Fielder's bat, potentially keeping his options open while seeing how the market plays out everywhere. Moustakas has age, the current power #'s, and the signing while still under LT benefit in his corner. Which you can't completely discount as a possibility there imo, at least until the actual commitment #'s on everybody start getting thrown around this winter.
