The 2018 Lineup

[MikeM]

JDM shouldn’t hit third. Too many PAs with two out and none on.

I'm still having a hard time taking The Book at gospel value there when it wasn't specifically calculating out a scenario where any other hitter you are going to slot into 3 (assuming Cora leaves Betts/Ben10 alone) is going to at least be a rough .250ops downgrade type from that 4.

Is there anything else and both written/analyzed closer to our current time period that also supports the idea that I just shouldn't care that a .271/.328/.422 hitter is still going to be taking those post-1st inning atbats directly before the .343/.397/.680 guy?

 

[nothumb]

I'd be all for moving X to 3rd and Hanley 5th, but it occurs to me that having X behind JDM may be valuable in terms of punishing teams for pitching around him. If Hanley is going bad, dropping him to 5th could have the effect of shortening the lineup even more. Frankly I'd like to see Moreland taking a few more starts from Hanley and pushing JDM to DH until Mitch cools off or Hanley heats up.

Vs RHP for the time being I'd like to see Mitch playing most of the time, and resting either JBJ or Hanley. JBJ sits against lefties.

Vs RHP I would go

Betts
10D
Mitch
JDM
X
Devers
Nunez
C
Bradley

...or if Hanley is playing, he can slot in at 6 and bump everyone else down one spot.

Vs LHP you flip Hanley and Mitch, otherwise keep it similar. Maybe when Pedey is back you consider flipping him and 10D vs LHP.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm still having a hard time taking The Book at gospel value there when it wasn't specifically calculating out a scenario where any other hitter you are going to slot into 3 (assuming Cora leaves Betts/Ben10 alone) is going to at least be a rough .250ops downgrade type from that 4.

Yes, but if you move him, the guy you slot into 4 is now at least a rough .250ops downgrade from that 3. And that's a bigger problem.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Devers was advertised as having a patient eye, not swinging at garbage, who would wait for his pitch and destroy it. Kind of disappointing to see him as a bad fielding free swinging 3b

SSS and all, but he's had 4bb in the last 5 games, 21 PA. That changed his BB rate from 5.7% to 7.1%.

I wouldn't call his season a success (yet), but there are definitely some huge positives to take away. That HR power is definitely real. He is on pace for 30 HRs and not many 21 year olds hit for that kind of power in the Majors. It's only been done 17 times by guys 21 or younger.

 

[soxeast]

May have to further consider the lineup. Hanley has been so bad and COra isn't too psyched with Moreland.

Can also do

1-- Betts
2-- Pedey
3-- Beni
4-- JDM
5--- XB
6- Moreland
7-- Devers or Hanley
8-- Devers or Hanley
9-- Catcher

**If JBJ turns it around he can be 7 or 8 and platoon Hanley and Moreland. Hanley is starting to be what I expect him to be. I'd give Hanley a bit more rope but he needs to get moved from the 3 hole very soon if not now. Hanley is a platoon player at this point in his career. I hope he shows I'm wrong. But just like his best year with SOx in 2016 - he hits lefties extremely well and is a disaster vs righties. Generally he does hit lefties better. If you do play him vs righties he can't be hitting any higher than 6th.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Who plays 3B in that lineup when Hanley is in the lineup?

 

[joe dokes]

Devers was advertised as having a patient eye, not swinging at garbage, who would wait for his pitch and destroy it. Kind of disappointing to see him as a bad fielding free swinging 3b

Yeah. Best to abandon the Devers experiment now, before he drives the team deeper into the cellar.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

But just like his best year with SOx in 2016 - he hits lefties extremely well and is a disaster vs righties.

He had a 111wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016. Over his career, his wRC+ v. RHP is 122. Over his Sox career, it's exactly 100.

You have an interesting definition of "disaster".

Yes, he's sucking vs. RHP so far, but the sample is still small enough that a hot couple of weeks could bring his line back to normal.

 

[soxeast]

He had a 111wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016. Over his career, his wRC+ v. RHP is 122. Over his Sox career, it's exactly 100.

You have an interesting definition of "disaster".

Yes, he's sucking vs. RHP so far, but the sample is still small enough that a hot couple of weeks could bring his line back to normal.

You're right - I'm wrong. I thought he was worse. But I disagree with you for using career numbers. Career numbers are irrelevant. Would you use Albert Pujols numbers to define anything that he is today? I think the Red Sox numbers from Hanley are more relevant than anything he did with Marlins or Dodgers.

His splits with the Red ox are as follows: He does hit lefties better.

rh--- .259/.323/.434/.756 - in 1,235 at bats
lh--- .268/.341/.509/.850 - in 385 at bats

And when you speak of "back to normal" -- what's normal for an over-the-hill player?

 

[chawson]

My best guess for lineup 2.0 would be

Betts (R)
Benintendi (L)
Bogaerts (R)
Martinez (R)
Moreland (L)
Pedroia (R)
Devers (L)
Bradley (L)
Vaz/Swihart/Leon (R/S/S)

I’d like to see:

Betts (R)
Moreland (L)
Bogaerts (R)
Martinez (R)
Benintendi (L)
Swihart (S)
Devers (L)
Pedroia (R)
Bradley (L)

The need for a versatile option that can hit lefties seems acute.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Sox went into tonight's game with the #1 (Betts), #2 (JDM), and #9 (Xander) hitters in baseball in Barrels/PA. And then they all homered.

 

[dhappy42]

I think it was a radio interview, can't recall....but a little over a week ago I heard Cora say that no chance he would mess with his 1/2/3 spots in the order, and that Pedey would most likely slot around 6th in the lineup.

Seems kind of funny, now that he’s messed with the #3 spot big time.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

SSS and all, but he's had 4bb in the last 5 games, 21 PA. That changed his BB rate from 5.7% to 7.1%.

I wouldn't call his season a success (yet), but there are definitely some huge positives to take away. That HR power is definitely real. He is on pace for 30 HRs and not many 21 year olds hit for that kind of power in the Majors. It's only been done 17 times by guys 21 or younger.

Another 3 games, another 3 walks. That's now 7 bb in his last 33 PA, after 10 (including 3 intentional) in his first 175. His BB rate is now 8.2% for the season, up from the 5.7% it was 8 games ago. At the same time, he is now hitting a season low .233. His slash line in those 33 PA is .154/.333/.423 with a BAbip of .100. I think it's just a matter of time before he heats up with the bat.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

A weird thing about the Sox at the one-third mark: nearly half (42%) of AL position players with 50 or more PA have a wRC+ between 80 and 120. The Sox have only one such hitter that's still with the team (Devers, 88) and nobody with a wRC+ between 90 and 120. Our hitters so far are either beasts or black holes.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

I'm wondering what the Sox' plan for 1B is with Hanley gone.
Short-term, it's clearly to ride Mitch Moreland's hot-hand. But what about when Mitch cools off?
Here are some MM numbers:

2018
vs RHP (98 PA) 195 wRC+
vs LHP (33 PA) 122 wRC+
March/April 148 wRC+
May 206 wRC+

Career
vs RHP 107 wRC+
vs LHP 81 wRC+
March/April 116 wRC+
May 126 wRC+
June 103 wRC+
July 68 wRC+
August 116 wRC+
Sept/Oct 65 wRC+

The comparison of MM's career to 2018 numbers tells us to expect him to cool off. His career line vs LHP tells us he should be platooned, if possible.
Current 25-man depth at 1B is LHH Brock Holt, which doesn't help with the platoon, and SH Blake Swihart, which doesn't help with hitting in general.
Do the Sox start trying JDM at 1B? Or Nunez? Unless someone else gets bumped off the 25 man roster, there isn't room to bring up RHH Sam Travis (not that he'd necessarily be an offensive improvement either).
Don't get me wrong - I'm enjoying MM's hot run and hoping it stays hot, or at least warm. But if I'm in the Sox FO, I can't be thinking 1B is "solved" for the year, can I? What's my Plan B?

 

[Al Zarilla]

I'm wondering what the Sox' plan for 1B is with Hanley gone.
Short-term, it's clearly to ride Mitch Moreland's hot-hand. But what about when Mitch cools off?
Here are some MM numbers:

2018
vs RHP (98 PA) 195 wRC+
vs LHP (33 PA) 122 wRC+
March/April 148 wRC+
May 206 wRC+

Career
vs RHP 107 wRC+
vs LHP 81 wRC+
March/April 116 wRC+
May 126 wRC+
June 103 wRC+
July 68 wRC+
August 116 wRC+
Sept/Oct 65 wRC+

The comparison of MM's career to 2018 numbers tells us to expect him to cool off. His career line vs LHP tells us he should be platooned, if possible.
Current 25-man depth at 1B is LHH Brock Holt, which doesn't help with the platoon, and SH Blake Swihart, which doesn't help with hitting in general.
Do the Sox start trying JDM at 1B? Or Nunez? Unless someone else gets bumped off the 25 man roster, there isn't room to bring up RHH Sam Travis (not that he'd necessarily be an offensive improvement either).
Don't get me wrong - I'm enjoying MM's hot run and hoping it stays hot, or at least warm. But if I'm in the Sox FO, I can't be thinking 1B is "solved" for the year, can I? What's my Plan B?

We’ll researched post, but as for Nunez at first base, he plays worse as he goes around the infield from 3B through SS and 2B. If that continues, does he become Dick Stuart at first base? I also don’t see that he’s played any MLB first base. I don’t think he gets considered for 1B.

 

[mfried]

We’ll researched post, but as for Nunez at first base, he plays worse as he goes around the infield from 3B through SS and 2B. If that continues, does he become Dick Stuart at first base? I also don’t see that he’s played any MLB first base. I don’t think he gets considered for 1B.

I don't really believe in Swihart's offense, but give the guy a chance. He may show some right-handed moxie.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Don't get me wrong - I'm enjoying MM's hot run and hoping it stays hot, or at least warm. But if I'm in the Sox FO, I can't be thinking 1B is "solved" for the year, can I? What's my Plan B?

Devers will be a future DH. But before that, he is a future 1B. And he would probably be an excellent one, as his worst defensive shortcoming is his erratic arm. Moreland (with Travis and Swihart) can keep the bag warm for him, until a better defensive solution at 3B is found.

But yeah, for 2018, they’re done. It’s DDski’s world, and we’re just living in it.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

But yeah, for 2018, they’re done....

It's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to say this. Baseball is funny that way. The Sox playoff roster may contain some surprises that no one saw coming as of the last days of May.

 

[BaseballJones]

A few Sox hitters heating up lately...

Bradley, last 10 games: .345/.406/.552/.958, 4 doubles
Leon, last 10 games: .419/.471/.710/1.180, 3 doubles, 2 homers
Benintendi, last 31 games: .341/.396/.618/1.014, 10 doubles, 3 triples, 6 homers
Nunez, last 10 games: .308/.300/.487/.787, 4 doubles, 1 homer
Holt, last 20 games: .397/.443/.571/1.014, 8 doubles, 1 homer

Benintendi we expect to hit well. But man, if those other guys are hot, holy smokes this team is going to produce RUNS. In their last 18 games, the Sox have scored:

< 3 runs: 1 time
3-4 runs: 5 times
5-6 runs: 9 times
> 6 runs: 3 times
> 8 runs: 0 times

So they've averaged 5.2 runs per game over this stretch, only once scoring fewer than three runs, and never scoring more than 8. In other words, that 5.2 runs per game average is not bloated by one 14 run outburst. It's just been consistently putting up 4-8 runs a game. And not surprisingly, they are 13-5 over that stretch, as their pitching has been just fine on the whole. It's easy to win a lot when you're consistently scoring 5 or 6 runs a game.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

AL top 10 OPS

1.187 Betts, BOS
1.119 Trout, LAA
1.042 Martinez, BOS
1.021 Ramirez, CLE
1.008 Judge, NYY
1.004 Machado, BAL
0.952 Brantley, CLE
0.913 Lindor, CLE
0.893 Benintendi, BOS
0.890 Davidson, CHW

Quite the li'l stretch by Beni: 1.032 OPS in May.

 

[BaseballJones]

Red Sox vs Yankees by ops (min 140 PA)...

Betts, Bos: 1.187
Judge, NY: 1.088
Martinez, Bos: 1.042
Moreland, Bos: 1.011
Benintendi, Bos: .893
Bogaerts, Bos: .855
Andujar, NY: .804
Sanchez, NY: .799
Gregorius, NY: .798
Stanton, NY: .793

*Torres is a little short on PA, but in 126 PA, he has an ops of .969.

It's amazing how many Red Sox players are ahead of these great Yankees in ops.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Red Sox vs Yankees by ops (min 140 PA)...

Betts, Bos: 1.187
Judge, NY: 1.088
Martinez, Bos: 1.042
Moreland, Bos: 1.011
Benintendi, Bos: .893
Bogaerts, Bos: .855
Andujar, NY: .804
Sanchez, NY: .799
Gregorius, NY: .798
Stanton, NY: .793

*Torres is a little short on PA, but in 126 PA, he has an ops of .969.

It's amazing how many Red Sox players are ahead of these great Yankees in ops.

Judge is actually 1.008 — behind JDM and Mitchy.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

A weird thing about the Sox at the one-third mark: nearly half (42%) of AL position players with 50 or more PA have a wRC+ between 80 and 120. The Sox have only one such hitter that's still with the team (Devers, 88) and nobody with a wRC+ between 90 and 120. Our hitters so far are either beasts or black holes.

More on this theme: there are 111 hitters with at least 150 PA in the American League. By wRC+, four of the top 15 are Red Sox. Four of the bottom 15 are also Red Sox. Only one current Red Sox player (Bogaerts, #29) ranks among the 81 players in between.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It hasn't been a problem yet, but I have a feeling it will become one if it's a season long thing. They can't carry 4 black holes, but Nunez, Leon and Bradley have been better of late and I think Devers will hit better going forward.

You'd have to expect some regression from Betts and Moreland, possibly from Ben10 and Xander. If that happens without the 4 black holes improving, it could get ugly quick.

 

[AB in DC]

Hopefully regression to the mean works in both directions.

 

[AB in DC]

More on this theme: there are 111 hitters with at least 150 PA in the American League. By wRC+, four of the top 15 are Red Sox. Four of the bottom 15 are also Red Sox. Only one current Red Sox player (Bogaerts, #29) ranks among the 81 players in between.

Speaking of regression, here's one oddity: Christian Vazquez has the second-worst wRC+ in that list of 111, but he's among the 15 best in K%.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Speaking of regression, here's one oddity: Christian Vazquez has the second-worst wRC+ in that list of 111, but he's among the 15 best in K%.

Is there a relationship between low k% and hitting? If there is, can someone show a pretty line graph? I'd assume the guys who hit well with low k% had similar walk rates or better, and/or are fast enough to get infield hits a la Juan Pierre.

 

[AB in DC]

The bottom of the order has very quietly started turning things around in the past 30 days:

Leon: 120 wRC+ (Vaz: 75 wRC+)
Holt: 105 wRC+
JBJ: 100 wRC+

Only Devers (53 wRC+) has continued to slump, with Nunez about where you might expect for a backup infielder (71 wRC+).

 

[Oppo]

And Swihart at 2 wRC+

 

[Sampo Gida]

When you have 4-5 well below average hitters in your lineup offensive slumps become more likely as your top 4-5 hitters go through their own slumps or are injured

Betts being on the DL has hurt, but a more balanced lineup makes it hurt less.

So maybe the weaker hitters hit better, or DD works a miracle via trade, but we are now 4 games back in the loss column and cant continue losing series at home to teams like the CWS

 

[sean1562]

I dont want to say "everything will be fixed" but having Betts back will do wonders for this offense. Xander is a good hitter(prob not .900 OPS guy), Benintendi is a great hitter, and Devers I am sure will come around. Losing the frontrunner for MVP from your offense will obviously not do it wonders. It is a long season, we are in good shape right now. Just need Betts to come back healthy, hopefully Pedroia too

 

[Sampo Gida]

Judge is actually 1.008 — behind JDM and Mitchy.

Thats actually the scary thing. Judge has not hit on the road and Sanchez and Stanton have underperformed, and Bird is still working off the rust and Didi has been one of the worst hitters in MLB since April. Couple rookies at 2B and 3B. Yet they are winning 70% of their games

If the big bombers get hot as they are prone to do in the summer it could be nasty

 

[BaseballJones]

Thats actually the scary thing. Judge has not hit on the road and Sanchez and Stanton have underperformed, and Bird is still working off the rust and Didi has been one of the worst hitters in MLB since April. Couple rookies at 2B and 3B. Yet they are winning 70% of their games

If the big bombers get hot as they are prone to do in the summer it could be nasty

True, but now they're facing injuries to their starting pitching, which should catch up with them at some point.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

True, but now they're facing injuries to their starting pitching, which should catch up with them at some point.

Alternatively, think about it this way: Yankee fans are probably thinking "Sox are without the best player on the planet and Pedroia and half their lineup isn't hitting and we still can't separate from them, if they get right it's gonna be scary."

It works both ways.

 

[BaseballJones]

Alternatively, think about it this way: Yankee fans are probably thinking "Sox are without the best player on the planet and Pedroia and half their lineup isn't hitting and we still can't separate from them, if they get right it's gonna be scary."

It works both ways.

Well, if they had any sense they'd be saying that. I mean this Sox lineup has been one of the best in baseball, and really, look at the ops+ numbers of their starting lineup:

C Vazquez - 45 (!), Leon - 72
1b Moreland - 151
2b Nunez - 72
3b Devers - 81
SS Bogaerts - 124
LF Benintendi - 144
CF Bradley - 63
RF Betts - 211
DH Martinez - 170

Half out of these 10 regulars have an ops+ of 81 or less.

 

[grimshaw]

Thats actually the scary thing. Judge has not hit on the road and Sanchez and Stanton have underperformed, and Bird is still working off the rust and Didi has been one of the worst hitters in MLB since April. Couple rookies at 2B and 3B. Yet they are winning 70% of their games

If the big bombers get hot as they are prone to do in the summer it could be nasty

On a more optimistic note, Gregorius has been a roughly average bat for a shortstop, so him crashing to earth doesn't really mean much. He's now at a wRC+ 107. It was 105 last year and 95 for his career. This could just be who he is.

Regarding Stanton - he is hitting way more groundballs, his k and walk rates are all time worsts. He is chasing a lot too. it could be partially mental given the immense difference in markets.

I'd like to say Torres will regress, but we've waited for it with Judge and Sanchez in their rookie years and it didn't happen.

I would think Sanchez starts lighting it up any day now too.

 

[grimshaw]

Though the lineup has been sometimes frustrating, you can't argue with the team's results. They have basically won their expected amount of games based on run differential. The pitching this year is what we thought it was going to be last year. And Price, E-Rod at his age and particularly Pomeranz can still improve

That out of they way, the regression in my opinion from a few lineup guys is going to be a whole hell of a lot worse than some more modest improvements from others.

Steamer is projecting Betts to slash .307/.376/.537 - completely in line with his 2016 year. That's a 60 point drop in .obp and an over 200 point drop in slugging. He he may not have peaked yet (from his hall of fame season, not this supernatural one) but splitting the difference is still quite the fall.

Moreland realistically has nowhere to go but down. It's unlikely he is going to suddenly be the best AL 1st baseman at age 32. He has always mashed early in the year but his fall could be as steep as Betts'.

On the plus side, I wouldn't be shocked if Beni and X are here to stay and respective all-star, but it's hard to know because of iBeni's short track record and Bogaerts' incosistency. JDM is this stud we are seeing.

Pedey should outhit current Nunez, but really, he is at the age combined with the parts of the body you don't want a 2b injured in, then we could see him drop to below league average. Even if the bat is fine, you would have to expect a slip in the field or much less playing time limiting the net improvement.

Vazquez and Leon are basically going to be bad regardless, but maybe not worse than now.

From the bench, Holt is well above his career average No long time major leaguer is as bad as Swihart has shown so hits ought to fall in eventually. The issue is that he is running low on substantial playing time.

To me it comes down to Rafy and JBJ and those are major question marks and difficult to replace internally. I have unreasonably blind faith in Devers. We need him to rake to help offset some major drop offs elsewhere.

 

[lexrageorge]

...
Steamer is projecting Betts to slash .307/.376/.537 - completely in line with his 2016 year. That's a 60 point drop in .obp and an over 200 point drop in slugging. He he may not have peaked yet (from his hall of fame season, not this supernatural one) but splitting the difference is still quite the fall.

...

Sorry, but this needs to be questioned. While it is indeed unlikely that Betts will finish the year with a 1.187 OPS, there is no rule that says he will finish the year at his Steamer projection either. Regression to the mean doesn't always regress all the way to the mean; he could very well hit at a 0.900 OPS clip the rest of the season; we'll take that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Sorry, but this needs to be questioned. While it is indeed unlikely that Betts will finish the year with a 1.187 OPS, there is no rule that says he will finish the year at his Steamer projection either. Regression to the mean doesn't always regress all the way to the mean; he could very well hit at a 0.900 OPS clip the rest of the season; we'll take that.

That's exactly what Steamer is projecting (well, .913, to be exact). You realize that the (R) in the projection line means "rest of year", right? If that's how Betts hits the rest of the way, I'll be fine with it. That would produce a final slash line around .325/.400/.624. That sounds both realistic and entirely awesome.

 

[BaseballJones]

That's exactly what Steamer is projecting (well, .913, to be exact). You realize that the (R) in the projection line means "rest of year", right? If that's how Betts hits the rest of the way, I'll be fine with it. That would produce a final slash line around .325/.400/.624. That sounds both realistic and entirely awesome.

Yes of course. But the point is... it's a downgrade from what he's done so far, which means the Sox would need someone to compensate for the loss.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Can we just get Mookie back and fully healthy and then worry about his OPS? This injury, that started as a little owie, is really starting to piss me off. The longer he stays out the more I fear this will be a lingering issue. It's been 14 games so far.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Yes of course. But the point is... it's a downgrade from what he's done so far, which means the Sox would need someone to compensate for the loss.

Playing devil's advocate, Mookie hasn't played since 5/26. His "replacement" in Swihart has slashed .161/.212/.194 in 33 PA since then. The team has gone 8-6, averaging 4.5 R/G. The 14 games he's missed are roughly a fifth of the season to date, though Swihart hasn't filled all his PAs. But, in essence, Mookie's spot in the lineup has produced somewhere just north of a 1.000 OPS thus far. The drop-off to .913 or whatever isn't quite as drastic in that light.

To the larger point, I agree that Devers and JBJ are the keys to the offense. Moreland and Beni are above their heads so far, and I think that's where we'll see the biggest drop. Even if Beni has fully "figured things out," he's been on a hot streak that has inflated his numbers a bit. Probably some small regression from Mookie, X, and Holt (who's only 11th on the team in PA which limits that effect). On the positive side, the catchers (particularly Vazquez) will probably be a little bit better going forward, but they're a below average hitting tandem that the rest of the lineup will carry - as was to be expected. Nunez/Pedroia should end much closer to league average than the 68 wRC+ Nunez has put up. Which leaves us with Devers (79 wRC+) and JBJ (65 wRC+). If those guys get to league average, the offense most likely improves a little over even its early season success (currently 5.17 R/G, 2nd in MLB behind the mfys' 5.45). If not, then I think it's really important that Pedroia is healthy and effective for the second half. That could allow Nunez and Holt to take PAs from Devers and JBJ. The 25th spot remains a wildcard: there's no way Swihart can continue with a 12 wRC+. My hope is still that he becomes the 2nd catcher with Vazquez in 2019, meaning they carry him throughout 2018. But if it becomes clear that that won't be the case, it's an easy upgrade. Either way, there should be a small bump from that spot that could potentially become a solution for 3B or CF at the deadline.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I'm not sure Ben10 is due for regression. This is his 2nd season and he had a very healthy minor league track record. It looks like he's figured out how to hit lefties, too.

He could very well be a .900 OPS bat.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

I'm not sure Ben10 is due for regression. This is his 2nd season and he had a very healthy minor league track record. It looks like he's figured out how to hit lefties, too.

He could very well be a .900 OPS bat.

That's reasonable. I see both Benintendi and Bogaerts having a high-end/prime years projection of about a .900 OPS - something similar to Mookie's 2016. Anything higher than that would require some gain in HR power that isn't realistic, imo. They're currently at .920 and .836, respectively. I don't know that either/both will hit that level this season (here's to hoping), but, in terms of 2018 lineup projection, I think they're probably a relative wash from where they are now. A combined high-.800s OPS for the year seems a decent bet.

 

[grimshaw]

Sorry, but this needs to be questioned. While it is indeed unlikely that Betts will finish the year with a 1.187 OPS, there is no rule that says he will finish the year at his Steamer projection either. Regression to the mean doesn't always regress all the way to the mean; he could very well hit at a 0.900 OPS clip the rest of the season; we'll take that.

Ya, I didn't make it clear that was Steamer's rest of season pace. I was hoping someone would be able to calculate what his overall numbers would end up as and Savin has my back. I think a .400 obp is entirely reasonable because pitchers will get tired of getting whiplash and start to pitch around him since his strike zone judgement is so good, and he doesn't chase.

 

[chawson]

With Ohtani facing Tommy John, the Mariners' path to the second Wild Card seems to open up considerably. The Angels are 4.5 games back, and the next best WC contender, the A's, are 7.5 games back.

Would anyone disagree that a Wild Card game against James Paxton is the most likely scenario the Sox will be in on October 1?

Red Sox vs. Paxton (career)
Martinez 3 for 6, 1 2B
Nunez 1 for 2, 1 BB
Holt 2 for 5, 1 2B
Swihart 1 for 3
Leon 1 for 3, 1 SO
Bradley 2 for 6, 2 SO
Moreland 1 for 4, 3 SO
Bogaerts 1 for 6
Betts 2 for 10, 1 2B, 1 SO
Benintendi 0 for 3
Pedroia 0 for 9, 1 BB, 3 SO
Vazquez 0 for 2
Totals 14 for 59, 3 2B, 2 BB, 12 SO, .237/.262/.288, .550 OPS

I wouldn't typically plot a Wild Card scenario in mid-June. This year, however, the AL playoff teams could be decided by the 7/31 trade deadline, if not the actual seeds. I have some optimism we'll win the division, but with the Yankees' trade resources it's not something I'd bet my house on. How we fare in this Friday's matchup against Paxton and the Mariners seems significant.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This team should absolutely NOT be making decisions based on the possibility of playing a single game against a specific pitcher. I don't care if that's what seems most likely or not. Their focus should be on winning as many games as possible between now and October, then let the chips fall. If that means they end up facing Paxton and the M's in a one-game playoff, so be it. Small career sample sizes or a single game in June against the guy will mean very little come October.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

With Ohtani facing Tommy John, the Mariners' path to the second Wild Card seems to open up considerably. The Angels are 4.5 games back, and the next best WC contender, the A's, are 7.5 games back.

Would anyone disagree that a Wild Card game against James Paxton is the most likely scenario the Sox will be in on October 1?

Red Sox vs. Paxton (career)
Martinez 3 for 6, 1 2B
Nunez 1 for 2, 1 BB
Holt 2 for 5, 1 2B
Swihart 1 for 3
Leon 1 for 3, 1 SO
Bradley 2 for 6, 2 SO
Moreland 1 for 4, 3 SO
Bogaerts 1 for 6
Betts 2 for 10, 1 2B, 1 SO
Benintendi 0 for 3
Pedroia 0 for 9, 1 BB, 3 SO
Vazquez 0 for 2
Totals 14 for 59, 3 2B, 2 BB, 12 SO, .237/.262/.288, .550 OPS

I wouldn't typically plot a Wild Card scenario in mid-June. This year, however, the AL playoff teams could be decided by the 7/31 trade deadline, if not the actual seeds. I have some optimism we'll win the division, but with the Yankees' trade resources it's not something I'd bet my house on. How we fare in this Friday's matchup against Paxton and the Mariners seems significant.

This is the nothingest of nothingburgers ever grilled. Literally every one of those is too small of a sample to mean anything, and you're putting them out there on the assumption of potentially facing a starter in a wild card game 3 months from now?

The only thing "likely" is that there's still a lot of baseball to be played, and posts like this are a waste of bandwidth. There is too much time and too many things will happen between now and then.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Paxton also has never started a game in Fenway...all those small sample sizes against the Red Sox have come in Safeco Field where he has almost a full run advantage in ERA versus road games over his career.

Given a 1-game playoff against the M's is more likely to be in Fenway than in Seattle, the already-near-useless samples are even less relevant.