Where is that thread @EdRalphRomero started last season showing that pretty much every player was statistically under-performing expectations and the discussion of just how unlikely that was--but that it might have just happened?
The 2018 Lineup
- Thread starter TonyPenaNeverJuiced
- Start date
It's still very early for k rates on each individual player to stabilize, but all 12 hitters who were on the team last year have seen their rates go down this year. Definitely a function of their aggressiveness swinging at strikes early.
I'm sure Ohtani will do his best to help correct this tonight, so I hope they keep up the aggression.
I'm sure Ohtani will do his best to help correct this tonight, so I hope they keep up the aggression.
Now that we've added about two weeks since this extremely SSS post here's some still too early, but more positive, stats.
The Sox are currently leading MLB in a host of batting categories including all slash lines (.283/.356/.475) and runs/game (6.19), they are slightly above MLB average in HR (19 vs. 17) and to highlight the point made by @grimshaw they are dead last in strikeouts (103). To be fair they have faced rather dubious pitching staffs so far (only LAAA is better than bottom 1/3 in ERA+ although they didn't look like it last night) but yes, the offense is cranking right now.
Since there is no sploogefest thread for Mookie Betts (yet), this is as good of a place as any:
Fangraphs posted a nice article today that examines his white-hot start to the season, complete with launch angle.
Fangraphs posted a nice article today that examines his white-hot start to the season, complete with launch angle.
His bat and body are all over the place in the first clip, and he’s almost motionless before load in the second. Also a shorter, crisper step.
We are hearing that Betts is attacking the ball earlier in the count (at least I have heard that), however his P/PA is up this year to 4.12, above his career number of 3.94 and the highest since 2014. And he's swinging at 13.2% of 1st pitches, below his career numbers.
A few other things:
--he's seeing fewer strikes
--he's swinging and missing less
--overall he's swinging at fewer pitches
A few other things:
--he's seeing fewer strikes
--he's swinging and missing less
--overall he's swinging at fewer pitches
Two days ago the Angels had scored 103 runs and the Red Sox 89.
As of now, the Red Sox have scored 108 runs and the Angels 104.
Coming into the series, the Sox were 13-2 while the Angels were 13-3, the highest scoring team in the bigs and throwing their new phenom at us. The Sox have won both games by a combined score of 19-1.
There's one more game against the Athletics, three with a thoroughly mediocre Oakland team, then three with Toronto, giving us a chance to get some significant separation betwixt us and them fairly early. After Toronto, it's ten straight against last place teams (Tampa, KC, Texas) before heading to New York.
That's 17 games and if we can keep this whole magic ass-kicking thing going that long, they're going to be talking about this team being one of the all-time best starts to a season right next to the 35-5 Tigers.
Also, just for a little perspective, if the Sox should go .500 from here on out, they'd have 87 wins with a game to play. The Twins took the second wild card last year with 85 wins.
I think this team might be special.
As of now, the Red Sox have scored 108 runs and the Angels 104.
Coming into the series, the Sox were 13-2 while the Angels were 13-3, the highest scoring team in the bigs and throwing their new phenom at us. The Sox have won both games by a combined score of 19-1.
There's one more game against the Athletics, three with a thoroughly mediocre Oakland team, then three with Toronto, giving us a chance to get some significant separation betwixt us and them fairly early. After Toronto, it's ten straight against last place teams (Tampa, KC, Texas) before heading to New York.
That's 17 games and if we can keep this whole magic ass-kicking thing going that long, they're going to be talking about this team being one of the all-time best starts to a season right next to the 35-5 Tigers.
Also, just for a little perspective, if the Sox should go .500 from here on out, they'd have 87 wins with a game to play. The Twins took the second wild card last year with 85 wins.
I think this team might be special.
Their run differential is currently at +60. Jays are next closest at +38. The MFYs are +3.
It's been an amazing start.
It's been an amazing start.
All sorts of things could go wrong. It's really early still. 100 wins is a lot.
Just enjoying the ride so far....
Maybe this is better suited for P&G, but I'm looking at the Sox' roster of position players (on the 40-man), and here's one thing I like, and it has nothing to do with how they swing the bat.
C Leon - Latino (Venezuela)
C Vazquez - Latino (PR)
C Swihart - Caucasian (Texas)
IF Bogaerts - Latino (Aruba) - also of African descent
IF Devers - Latino (DR) - also of African descent
IF Holt - Caucasian (Texas)
IF Lin - Asian (Taiwan)
IF Moreland - Caucasian (Missouri)
IF Nunez - Latino (DR)
IF Pedroia - Caucasian (California)
IF Ramirez - Latino (DR)
OF Benintendi - Caucasian (Ohio)
OF Betts - African-American (Tennessee)
OF Bradley - African-American (Virginia)
OF Martinez - Latino (Florida)
That's a really, really diverse group of guys. The Sox haven't always had this kind of diversity, to my recollection. I just want the best team, regardless of ethnicity, but I do like the fact that this group is very diverse. Much less so among the pitchers, but I just think this is pretty cool.
Ok, back to baseball.
C Leon - Latino (Venezuela)
C Vazquez - Latino (PR)
C Swihart - Caucasian (Texas)
IF Bogaerts - Latino (Aruba) - also of African descent
IF Devers - Latino (DR) - also of African descent
IF Holt - Caucasian (Texas)
IF Lin - Asian (Taiwan)
IF Moreland - Caucasian (Missouri)
IF Nunez - Latino (DR)
IF Pedroia - Caucasian (California)
IF Ramirez - Latino (DR)
OF Benintendi - Caucasian (Ohio)
OF Betts - African-American (Tennessee)
OF Bradley - African-American (Virginia)
OF Martinez - Latino (Florida)
That's a really, really diverse group of guys. The Sox haven't always had this kind of diversity, to my recollection. I just want the best team, regardless of ethnicity, but I do like the fact that this group is very diverse. Much less so among the pitchers, but I just think this is pretty cool.
Ok, back to baseball.
Sox are #1 in the majors in AVG, OBP, and SLG.
They've never won 100 games in my lifetime though. It's really hard. Maybe this is the year.
They've never won 100 games in my lifetime though. It's really hard. Maybe this is the year.
With soon to be upgrades at SS and 2B. 100 wins is a strong possibility with their current record as long as they stay relatively healthy.
The older I get, the more I learn to understand how these depth problems tend to work themselves out over an 162 game season.
True enough. They still have to play at a 95 win pace the rest of the way. I think they are somewhere around that talent-wise so it seems like a possibility. But they're inevitably going to lose 3 in a row or 4 out of 5 or whatever and things won't look quite as rosy.
Yup, the '82 Braves (Dale Murphy, Bob Horner, Phil Niekro, manager Joe Torre and Co.) started the year 13-0 (albeit before they lost their next 5 games) and, whilst they still made the playoffs, finished the year 89-73 before crashing out in the NLCS to the Cards.
The '87 Brewers (Molitor/Yount) also started 13-0 and though they kept it going to begin the season 17-1, they ended up only slightly better at 91-71, they failed to make the playoffs that year, finishing 3rd in the AL East behind Detroit (98-64) and Toronto (96-66). They opened the season that year against the AL Champion Sox by the way who somehow saw fit to begin the defence of the Pennant with Stanley, Nipper and Sellers starting that opening series in Milwaukee... but I digress.
The '87 Brewers (Molitor/Yount) also started 13-0 and though they kept it going to begin the season 17-1, they ended up only slightly better at 91-71, they failed to make the playoffs that year, finishing 3rd in the AL East behind Detroit (98-64) and Toronto (96-66). They opened the season that year against the AL Champion Sox by the way who somehow saw fit to begin the defence of the Pennant with Stanley, Nipper and Sellers starting that opening series in Milwaukee... but I digress.
You keep saying this. I get the feeling you haven't watched or studied much baseball.
If the Sox play their remaining 145 games at a .550 clip, they will win 80 more games, leaving them with 95 wins. To hit 100 wins, they need to win 58.6 percent of their remaining games, which is roughly a 95 win pace over the course of a whole season.
1987 was the year that Roger Clemens walked out of spring training in a salary dispute and didn't return until right before the regular season started, so he wasn't ready to go in the opening series.
Then you should realize that, should things go well for you, you will watch more than twice as much baseball than you have to this point.
Thanks. Was Hurst dinged up as well? Or did McNamara think the Brewers hit lefties too well and saved him for the home opener (Game 4)?
A 12-5 run through these puts us at 27-7 heading into that series. Seems plausible, but anxious to see Pomeranz. If he’s sharp out of the gate then there isn’t a weak link in the rotation. As fun as this offense is, 100 win teams have a good pitcher on the mound every night. Always starts with pitching.
We all know that the Yankees will start playing better at some point and Brian Cashman has a treasure trove of prospects available to trade if front-line starting pitching continues to be a concern in the Bronx. The great part of this hot start is that, as long as the Red Sox can avoid a protracted losing streak, they have arguably chewed up New York's margin for error in the AL East race. If the Sox have to play at a .550 pace to hit 95 wins, the Yankees now need to play at almost a .600 clip to reach that win total.
100 wins? Never seen that from a sox team. Then again, the three World Championships in the last 20 years have been pretty sweet. I'd just like them to finish as hot as they're starting now. Ask the 105 win 2004 Cardinals how 100+ wins worked out(to pick a team)
100 wins looks very possible. If Sox win the same amount of games they did last year from game 18 to game 162, they end up at 98 wins. (they went 83-62 after 17 games in 2017)
Since your post, those OPS numbers have almost all gone up. As a team, the Sox now sport a .844 OPS.
The pitching looks pretty good too.
Regular season benchmarks like 100 wins are fun to talk about. But the one that really matters is winning the division, and there is still a long, long way to go. And regular season benchmarks can quickly feel like an empty achievement if the playoffs end on a down note. Just ask the fans of a local football team that finished a season 18-1.
Another article from fangraphs on the productive Red Sox lineup.
They are destroying hittable pitches without increasing their swings on bad pitches out of the zone:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-red-sox-have-a-new-identity/
They are destroying hittable pitches without increasing their swings on bad pitches out of the zone:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-red-sox-have-a-new-identity/
It's nice that they're 6.5 games up on the Yankees, but it surprised me to see how good the Blue Jays had been up to now. The Sox have to put them in their place when they play them next week. I think it's going to be a tight division this year, but the good early start does put them in a healthy position to win the division.
Something that doesn't get mentioned in the fangraphs article, but is worthy of discussion is why have the RS been able to make the transition so easily from a team that refrained from swinging at strikes early in the count (#30) to a team that leads the majors in swinging at strikes early in the count while still maintaining a higher walk rate than last year.
I would suggest that part of the reason has been the RS history (last 15 yrs) of focusing so much on patience, albeit recently to the team's detriment. The team has stressed focusing on the strike zone. In the past, they just used that focus to a different end, ie, to work pitch counts. 10 years ago with weaker bullpens and starters >>>relievers, this approach made sense and was succesful. However as the league has countered that strategy with better relievers and more 1st pitch strikes, the RS were slow to adjust. However, this instant off-season transition has been remarkably fast, because it is really the same skill just now applied differently. That is the skill of identifying strikes. Instead of being passive early in the count, the hitters are encouraged to swing at pitches in their zone early in the count. So it is not matter a matter of learning a new skill (or being inherently good at that skill), it is just a matter of applying a new action to the same skillset.
I would suggest that part of the reason has been the RS history (last 15 yrs) of focusing so much on patience, albeit recently to the team's detriment. The team has stressed focusing on the strike zone. In the past, they just used that focus to a different end, ie, to work pitch counts. 10 years ago with weaker bullpens and starters >>>relievers, this approach made sense and was succesful. However as the league has countered that strategy with better relievers and more 1st pitch strikes, the RS were slow to adjust. However, this instant off-season transition has been remarkably fast, because it is really the same skill just now applied differently. That is the skill of identifying strikes. Instead of being passive early in the count, the hitters are encouraged to swing at pitches in their zone early in the count. So it is not matter a matter of learning a new skill (or being inherently good at that skill), it is just a matter of applying a new action to the same skillset.
That's interesting. I just posted in the Cora thread that Alex says he told Mookie he wanted him to be more aggressive.
Obviously Mookie is making great decisions at the plate and is getting pitched to very carefully.
Agreed - I think this is all flowing from Cora's stated philosophy of "hunting strikes," and being aggressive rather than passive early in the count - as he told Mookie, being passive led to Houston's gameplan to have their pitchers throw him a first-pitch strike every time because he was so likely to take it.
So how does this translate? I don't think it means swinging at any first pitch strike. I suspect it's more like approaching an 0-0 count like a 2-0 or 3-0 count - look for a certain pitch in a certain location, and if you get it, jump all over it. But if he throws a breaking ball on the corner for strike one, you can let that one go by, because there's a good chance you'll get a better pitch to hit later in the count.
So how does this translate? I don't think it means swinging at any first pitch strike. I suspect it's more like approaching an 0-0 count like a 2-0 or 3-0 count - look for a certain pitch in a certain location, and if you get it, jump all over it. But if he throws a breaking ball on the corner for strike one, you can let that one go by, because there's a good chance you'll get a better pitch to hit later in the count.
I think you're right, Dewey's Cannon. I bet Mookie, for example, is looking for something early in the count that he can drive. Middle or middle-in. And because most pitchers tend to want to get ahead in the count, they're throwing such pitches and Mookie is hammering them. At some point they'll adjust and he'll have to take more pitches.
Of course, baseball being baseball, as good as Mookie is doing, pitchers still are winning the battle more times than he is.
Of course, baseball being baseball, as good as Mookie is doing, pitchers still are winning the battle more times than he is.
It really is pretty damning to Farrell and Chili Davis (and maybe to 2017 Mookie) that he became so predictable and opposing teams were comfortably able to exploit those tendencies.