The 2018 NBA Draft

BigSoxFan

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His A/TO ratio is on par with the non-Lonzo PGs from last year, and better than any college season from John Wall, Steph or Lillard, to name a few. His high raw turnover numbers are the result of his usage, which is unprecedented. He takes pretty good care of the ball, it's just that he has it a ton.

The poor shot selection is more concerning, but probably something more easily addressed through coaching.
Yup. If he goes to a team with a solid group of vets and good coach, the sky is the limit. If he goes to Phoenix or Sacramento or something, I could see him being a classic “put up numbers on bad team” guy. Would be a very nice fit in Philly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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“Fun” is the best way to describe his games. Yesterday he was all over the place, shooting from 30+ feet, driving through clogged lanes, etc. When he was on and leading his team back he was unconscious. Hitting from everywhere despite the Cowboys throwing everything they had at him.

But he also would force the issue and created quite a few TOs himself - no stone-handed teammates at fault. And down the stretch he tried a few too many 30-footers that wouldn’t fall and so his team lost.

Amazing talent but still needs to learn how to harness it IMO.
I know others look at his turnovers with confirmation bias but try to recognize that many of his finishes through those clogged lanes and assists that result from defenses collapsing on him are DUE to him forcing the issue consistently for 40 minutes! The turnovers are a small price to pay for his uber-high usage in that offense.
 

BigSoxFan

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I know others look at his turnovers with confirmation bias but try to recognize that many of his finishes through those clogged lanes and assists that result from defenses collapsing on him are DUE to him forcing the issue consistently for 40 minutes! The turnovers are a small price to pay for his uber-high usage in that offense.
Honest question - how many games have you watched? You mentioned that you watched like 90 seconds yesterday. I’ve watched multiple full games of him since December and he has been sloppy at times. As you mention, a lot of it is due to usage but to dismiss the turnovers as simply defenses collapsing on him is just flat out wrong based on what I’ve seen.

The talent is there and the skill set is tantalizing but like any young PG, he needs to refine his decision making, which is all I’m saying.
 

nighthob

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I'm starting to feel that Bamba is the best fit for this team. Ayton is terrific as well, but I have concerns about his defending. Bamba has a lot of "Gobert who can maybe shoot 3s" in his game and that would be pretty amazing for this team.
It’s basketball, you don’t worry about fit, you worry about talent and figure the rest out later.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Jaren Jackson has been the odd man out of the discussions here about the top half of the lottery, but he's gotta be top 7 at this point. Not quite Bamba protecting the rim, but he's close and he's a better perimeter defender. His shooting touch looks real- 44.6% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game, and shooting 81% from the line. If he was just an elite rim protector who can also defend in space with a good shooting touch, he'd be good prospect, but he did this last night:


I did not know he could do that.
 

chilidawg

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That was impressive.

Bamba went for 24/12/3, 2/2 from 3, 4/4 from the line, just the kind of progress you would hope to see from him. I've been impressed with his perimeter defense in the little I've watched him.
 

DannyDarwinism

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That was impressive.

I've been impressed with his perimeter defense in the little I've watched him.
It's good, and it's definitely a strength for a guy his size. I didn't mean to knock it, only to highlight Jackson' relative advantage there.

Jackson is raw, but he's more than a year younger than Ayton and Bamba. I've seen Myles Turner thrown around as his comp, which I think makes a lot of sense, but I think Jackson's more explosive.
 

nighthob

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Jackson's a lot more explosive than Turner, and is a F rather than a center. I think he's the player that everyone hopes that Jonathan Isaac becomes, because he has similar size/length and game, but he's a lot more aggressive than Isaac.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It’s basketball, you don’t worry about fit, you worry about talent and figure the rest out later.
If you are the typical 25-win team in the high lottery I would agree. We are in a unique position to utilize a high lottery pick to fill a vital need on a championship caliber team and unless there is an enormous talent gap this is the way for Ainge to go. This is one of the reasons I did not want Fultz last year to be one of 5 guards in our rotation and lost with Kyrie here even before his breakdown.

Mamba has impressed me since the beginning of the season and continues to do so. He's going to be an impact player defensively with his length at the rim but also in showing high and contesting 3-point shots from guards/wings as he progresses. I love Bagley and Ayton as well but the gap may not be that wide to Mamba while being a better fit. Hey if we can nab another lottery next year as well to make the swap it's a no-brainer imo.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Honest question - how many games have you watched? You mentioned that you watched like 90 seconds yesterday. I’ve watched multiple full games of him since December and he has been sloppy at times. As you mention, a lot of it is due to usage but to dismiss the turnovers as simply defenses collapsing on him is just flat out wrong based on what I’ve seen.

The talent is there and the skill set is tantalizing but like any young PG, he needs to refine his decision making, which is all I’m saying.
I've watched two fulls and a couple partials. I don't feel we disagree a whole lot on him as he has been sloppy.....which is going to occur with his level of usage being asked to make a play on literally every possession. I'd add that his defensive production in college should be wiped clean for the simple reason that he is noticeably conserving energy on that end especially in the first half.......my issue with him defensively is more in projecting how he will have trouble physically with many NBA points.
 

Kliq

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Might as well post this here since I'm not going to make a new thread quite yet.

I don't really buy the hype for Zion Williamson. He's a great leaper and dunks with power the way a young Charles Barkley did, he has good length even if he is short for whatever position he may play, and he might be a good passer. That being said, he can't shoot outside of 12 feet, doesn't have a natural position, may never be an above average defender, has an unconvincing (to me) handle and will it is unlikely he is going to be the same kind of rebounder that Barkley was. To me, I see a kid with the athletic talent that blows away opponents at the amateur level but without a lot of skills that will translate to being an NBA-level player. Throw in the fact that he according to ESPN's scouting report, he gained 40(!) lbs over the last year, I'm not really high on him as an NBA prospect right now.
 

RedOctober3829

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Might as well post this here since I'm not going to make a new thread quite yet.

I don't really buy the hype for Zion Williamson. He's a great leaper and dunks with power the way a young Charles Barkley did, he has good length even if he is short for whatever position he may play, and he might be a good passer. That being said, he can't shoot outside of 12 feet, doesn't have a natural position, may never be an above average defender, has an unconvincing (to me) handle and will it is unlikely he is going to be the same kind of rebounder that Barkley was. To me, I see a kid with the athletic talent that blows away opponents at the amateur level but without a lot of skills that will translate to being an NBA-level player. Throw in the fact that he according to ESPN's scouting report, he gained 40(!) lbs over the last year, I'm not really high on him as an NBA prospect right now.
He'll make himself sink or swim at Duke. Nothing he's done to this point really matters in terms of him being a big NBA prospect. If he plays really well for Coach K, then he'll get drafted high. If he doesn't, he won't.
 

DannyDarwinism

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He'll make himself sink or swim at Duke. Nothing he's done to this point really matters in terms of him being a big NBA prospect. If he plays really well for Coach K, then he'll get drafted high. If he doesn't, he won't.
Yeah, if he can't flourish alongside the two best recruits in the country, and with the highest rated point guard running the show, his stock should slip massively.
 

Rico Guapo

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Might as well post this here since I'm not going to make a new thread quite yet.

I don't really buy the hype for Zion Williamson. He's a great leaper and dunks with power the way a young Charles Barkley did, he has good length even if he is short for whatever position he may play, and he might be a good passer. That being said, he can't shoot outside of 12 feet, doesn't have a natural position, may never be an above average defender, has an unconvincing (to me) handle and will it is unlikely he is going to be the same kind of rebounder that Barkley was. To me, I see a kid with the athletic talent that blows away opponents at the amateur level but without a lot of skills that will translate to being an NBA-level player. Throw in the fact that he according to ESPN's scouting report, he gained 40(!) lbs over the last year, I'm not really high on him as an NBA prospect right now.
Maybe he should learn to play Tight End?
 

Kliq

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In HS prospects, because the level of competition seems so questionable, I just look to see what skills a player may have that could realistically translate to when they eventually reach the NBA. In RJ Barrett I see a fluid scorer that has the natural size to play either wing position in the NBA, with a nice stroke and upside on the defensive end; he looks like the next Jayson Tatum. With Bol, because he is so physically elite in terms of size, he has to show lesser skills, because even in the NBA he is still going to be 7'2" or whatever. I see a player with superb length, very good mobility and coordination with a solid shooting stroke for a player of his size and age. At the very least I can see him being a solid NBA role player. With Williamson I have no idea what he does at the NBA level.
 

BigSoxFan

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I see considerable bust potential for Zion as well, mostly because the expectations on him are going to be completely unrealistic. The attention he’s received is almost LeBron-esque, yet, his skills are nowhere near that level. At least his handlers sent him to the right place for development but he’s really going to have to work on his shooting/defense there. And I think he’s going to struggle a lot guarding out on the perimeter. At 6’6, he’s not going to be effective guarding NBA bigs. There’s still plenty of time for development but I, too, am a bit skeptical. At least he’ll be great in the slam dunk competition though.
 

Swedgin

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If you are the typical 25-win team in the high lottery I would agree. We are in a unique position to utilize a high lottery pick to fill a vital need on a championship caliber team and unless there is an enormous talent gap this is the way for Ainge to go. This is one of the reasons I did not want Fultz last year to be one of 5 guards in our rotation and lost with Kyrie here even before his breakdown.

Mamba has impressed me since the beginning of the season and continues to do so. He's going to be an impact player defensively with his length at the rim but also in showing high and contesting 3-point shots from guards/wings as he progresses. I love Bagley and Ayton as well but the gap may not be that wide to Mamba while being a better fit. Hey if we can nab another lottery next year as well to make the swap it's a no-brainer imo.
If anyone has contemplated a subscription to Cleaning the Glass, Falk has been doing regular breakdowns of the projected top-5ish picks. He has covered Ayton and Bamba. Super-abbreviated and totally lacking in nuance summary of his analysis re their weaknesses:
  • Ayton - no feel for the game; makes poor decisions.
  • Bamba - college shot blocking often does not translate to the NBA. See Thabeet, Has to gather himself (and brings the ball down to below his waist) before dunks and block attempts. Shooting acumen is overstated.
 

djbayko

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I'm with you guys on Zion. He's an athletic freak for his league, and he's dominating on fast breaks and in the paint. But I don't think his height nor his skills are going to allow him to do that at the NBA level without some vast improvement. I could similarly see him doing fairly well at Duke and then busting in the NBA. I suppose he could become a Larry Johnson type player, but he has a long way to go. Barkley? No way.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Barring something unexpected, the first two guards to be taken in the draft are about to square off. Young vs. Sexton should be a lot of fun. Loads of scouts in Tuscaloosa today.
 

the moops

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Roster construction wise it is most important who you guard defensively. You can survive or even thrive with two PGs so long as one of them can guard up a position or two
 

HomeRunBaker

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If anyone has contemplated a subscription to Cleaning the Glass, Falk has been doing regular breakdowns of the projected top-5ish picks. He has covered Ayton and Bamba. Super-abbreviated and totally lacking in nuance summary of his analysis re their weaknesses:
  • Ayton - no feel for the game; makes poor decisions.
  • Bamba - college shot blocking often does not translate to the NBA. See Thabeet, Has to gather himself (and brings the ball down to below his waist) before dunks and block attempts. Shooting acumen is overstated.
I am becoming less impressed with Ayton than others as he seems very stiff which is a red flag in translating to the NBA so I don't disagree with Falk on him.

I completely disagree with the premise that Bamba's shot blocking numbers won't translate when you are a natural elite shot blocker like Bamba, Duncan, Mourning, Ratliff, etc. Thabeet was a stiff in college, not fluid at all and a long term project. Bamba isn't a project......his length and timing is elite. I'm impressed with his development over the past two month and how he defends the perimeter something Thabeet could never do.
 

jmm57

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Thabeet also averaged 4.0 blocks per 100 possessions for his career, the blocks translated just fine. He just couldn't really do anything else.
 

BigSoxFan

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Thabeet also averaged 4.0 blocks per 100 possessions for his career, the blocks translated just fine. He just couldn't really do anything else.
He was also one of the laziest players the NBA has ever seen. Not sure he was ever going to amount to much but Thabeet made Mark Blount look like Larry Bird.
 

jmm57

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Mo Bamba with 25/15/4 and 24/12/3 (points/reb/blocks) his last two, but more impressive - 16-17 from the line. That stretch has brought him from 59% to 67% on the season. He's also 3-3 from three in those two games.
 

DannyDarwinism

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The Lakers' pick watch was fun while it lasted but shifting focus to the Celtics own pick, there are a bunch guys projected in the late first that I'm interested in. None of them have a lot of upside, but guys who can contribute on rookie scale contracts are really valuable, and I think there are some safe plays.

Jevon Carter- generally projected as a second rounder, but he's just such a wrecking ball on D that I'd be happy to have him. On-ball defense is Avery Bradley-like, and I suspect he's a better team defender, but like Bradley, is probably limited to defending PGs due to his size. Can pass and shoot. Old and undersized, but he's smart and absolutely relentless. If Smart is too expensive, Carter's a guy who can come in a play as a rookie and make life miserable for opposing guards.

Jalen Brunson- Maybe the 2018 version of Malcolm Brogdon/Josh Hart. Upperclass PoY candidate who'll be able to run the offense for spells and knock down 3s. Great shooter, really heady.

Gary Trent Jr.- Another smart player who's a great shooter, except he's 6'6 and 19. Not athletic, but he does most things well and can really shoot.

Landry Shamet- Rich man's RJ Hunter? One of the best shooters in college but a slight frame. Solid passer, low turnovers but more of a two than a PG. Good wingspan, but doesn't really rack up steals.

Killian Tillie- Fits a modern archetype as a big who can shoot and defend the perimeter. Not a lot of bigs I like late in this draft, and Ainge tends to just pick serviceable bigs off the FA scrapheap, but Tillie is 6'10, agile enough to defend the PnR, and shooting 39% from 3 (only 84 attempts, but nice looking stroke) and 79% from the line in his college career.

Bruce Brown and De'Anthony Melton are guys that I like in theory, but haven't really seen enough of to have an opinion about.
 

nighthob

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BC's Jerome Robinson is someone I would like to see in Boston. I think his upside is limited, but he reminds me a lot of Josh Hart, doesn't have any real weaknesses in his game, and if he lacks explosiveness he makes up for it by being a heady player and a good shooter. He's the sort of guy that will come in handy come next year's trade deadline when Smart's BYC status wears off (sometime in January) and they start pushing on Anthony Davis again.
 

BigSoxFan

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BC's Jerome Robinson is someone I would like to see in Boston. I think his upside is limited, but he reminds me a lot of Josh Hart, doesn't have any real weaknesses in his game, and if he lacks explosiveness he makes up for it by being a heady player and a good shooter. He's the sort of guy that will come in handy come next year's trade deadline when Smart's BYC status wears off (sometime in January) and they start pushing on Anthony Davis again.
I’m a tortured BC fan. Keep your grubby hands off of Jerome!
 

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I'm seeing Jaren Jackson Jr of Michigan State pop up, in some cases in the top 5 in mocks. I don't watch a lot of college ball. Does he deserve to be discussed in that high-lottery group?
 

nighthob

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He reminds me a lot of Jonathan Isaac, except that he's a lot more aggressive. He's sort of that new age PF ideal, he has the size to defend traditional 4s, the lateral mobility to handle constant switches on defense, and can hit open threes. I think top five may be a little high for him (especially in comparison the alternatives in the 2018 draft), but he would likely have gone four or five last year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm seeing Jaren Jackson Jr of Michigan State pop up, in some cases in the top 5 in mocks. I don't watch a lot of college ball. Does he deserve to be discussed in that high-lottery group?
Jackson doesn't have the talent to play as soft as he does to garner this much love imo. Great physical skill but strange shooting mechanics. He's more of a flier and those guys don't typically go that high especially if Porter looks good upon his return.....I've got him in the 7-10 range. I like Wendell Carter as a better pro.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yeah, we discussed him a bit upthread, and I'm with Nighthob- he's pretty much the ideal modern 4. He's a much better rim protector and interior defender than Jonathan Isaac, with over double Isaac's block rate. Hell, he's got a better block rate than Bamba right now, and he's a superior perimeter defender. The defense is real, the shot seems real, and he's one of the youngest guys in the class- over a year younger than Ayton or Bamba. I don't know that I'd take him over those guys, but I'd think hard about it, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he ends up as one of the top two or three players from this draft.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Jackson doesn't have the talent to play as soft as he does to garner this much love imo. Great physical skill but strange shooting mechanics. He's more of a flier and those guys don't typically go that high especially if Porter looks good upon his return.....I've got him in the 7-10 range. I like Wendell Carter as a better pro.
With Jackson getting more love lately, Carter is probably the most slept on prospect. A lot of that is due to playing with Bagley, I suppose, but with Carter's combination of size, smarts and shooting, he has a pretty clear path to being a really good player in his own right, but I think his lack of explosion limits his upside. I'd really love to see Porter play this year. Not Jontay, though I kinda like him too.
 

nighthob

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Carter reminds me a lot of Horford. Barring injury he's going to have a 15 year career in this league, be loved by coaches, GMs, and teammates, and have the casual public asking "why does he get paid so much?".
 

bowiac

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HomeRunBaker

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With Jackson getting more love lately, Carter is probably the most slept on prospect. A lot of that is due to playing with Bagley, I suppose, but with Carter's combination of size, smarts and shooting, he has a pretty clear path to being a really good player in his own right, but I think his lack of explosion limits his upside. I'd really love to see Porter play this year. Not Jontay, though I kinda like him too.
I obv agree with Carter being slept on. It reminds me of Juwan Howard coming out of Michigan when C-Webb captured all of the headlines. Like nighthob mentioned, I've be very surprised if Carter doesn't have a long and successful career.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I obv agree with Carter being slept on. It reminds me of Juwan Howard coming out of Michigan when C-Webb captured all of the headlines. Like nighthob mentioned, I've be very surprised if Carter doesn't have a long and successful career.
FWIW, Carter is fifth on the freshman BPM list Bowiac posted, between Embiid and Trae Young who has fallen off significantly during conference play. And Carter, like Jackson, is young for his class.

Speaking of Trae, I watched some of the game last night and Zhaire Smith for TT really stood out as a guy who looks like he belongs on an NBA court, so it's interesting to see him #11 on that BPM list. He's got that combination of explosiveness and body control, but he also seemed pretty heady from what I saw, and his A/TO and steal ratios seem to validate that. He hardly takes any threes, and his pro prospects will likely hinge on his ability to add range to his game, so maybe he won't declare this year.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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The Lakers' pick watch was fun while it lasted but shifting focus to the Celtics own pick, there are a bunch guys projected in the late first that I'm interested in. None of them have a lot of upside, but guys who can contribute on rookie scale contracts are really valuable, and I think there are some safe plays.

...

Jalen Brunson- Maybe the 2018 version of Malcolm Brogdon/Josh Hart. Upperclass PoY candidate who'll be able to run the offense for spells and knock down 3s. Great shooter, really heady.

...

Bruce Brown and De'Anthony Melton are guys that I like in theory, but haven't really seen enough of to have an opinion about.
For us old-timers, Jalen is the son of Salem's own Eric (Rick) Brunson.
 

DannyDarwinism

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For us old-timers, Jalen is the son of Salem's own Eric (Rick) Brunson.
Yeah, I probably shouldn't have taken it for granted that people would know that.

Salem's own Rick was also part of that great Temple team with Eddie Jones and Aaron McKie, led by John "I'll kill you, Calipari!" Chaney.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, I probably shouldn't have taken it for granted that people would know that.

Salem's own Rick was also part of that great Temple team with Eddie Jones and Aaron McKie, led by John "I'll kill you, Calipari!" Chaney.
Brunson was the co-MVP of the McDonald's game following his senior year of HS when he almost led the East to upset a loaded West team that had the Michigan Fab-5 guys and Glenn Big Dog Robinson.

The one interesting tidbit from that week which was something that myself and bowiac discussed a few weeks ago regarding how well an NBA player can shoot in practice compared to games along with the role on his team. Sharone Wright, 6-10 255 behemoth out of Clemson who was a major flop with the Sixers and Raptors as the 6th overall pick, shot 63% from the line in college and 62% in the NBA. He was 0-6 career 3's at Clemson and 1-12 in his NBA career............

Sharone Wright won the 1991 McDonalds 3-Point Shootout that week.
 

bowiac

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If the 2018 Laker pick comes in at 6, 7 or 8 would the Sixers offer that pick for the 2019 Sacremento pick? Would the Celtics want to swap?
The Sixers and Celtics are now roughly on the same clock, and the 2019 draft is apparently extremely weak. Lakers pick would need to fall to like 10 I think for the Sixers to want to swap.
 

benhogan

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The Sixers and Celtics are now roughly on the same clock, and the 2019 draft is apparently extremely weak. Lakers pick would need to fall to like 10 I think for the Sixers to want to swap.
That sounds about right. Thanks

After #8, I'd rather have the Celtics gamble on Sacremento's future patheticness.

Do you have a current top 10 draft ranking?