The 2018 NBA Draft

[slamminsammya]

But the body matters. Ayton isn't exactly Shaq but you can't dismiss size.

I totally agree. I think Ayton is in the top 3 prospects and has a chance to be a star. My point is a limited one, namely that Ayton's physical development relative to his peers is a reason to discount some of his numbers, and that conversely Doncic's body relative to his peers makes his production more impressive.

None of that contradicts the fact that his body and athleticism make Ayton an amazing prospect. Simply that he's going to rely more on skill in the NBA because theres lots of big boys up there. And that is not to say he isn't skilled either!

Edit: To elaborate, I have watched a few highlight packages of Ayton against some small teams where he puts up 30 points or something, and in some of them a good half of his points are off simple lobs where he has five inches on his defender. Again, that size and athleticism won't disappear in the NBA. But it doesn't translate as well as, say, a smooth shooting stroke does.

 

[nighthob]

But the body matters. Ayton isn't exactly Shaq but you can't dismiss size.

Yeah, there's no guarantee that Doncic ever becomes a major athlete. He may top out as Gordon Hayward+, which is still a damned good result. Ayton is just a monster, and that's not going away. The question with him is the motor one, will he bust ass enough to maximize his potential?

Ayton is one of those players where I think it's going to matter where he ends up. If he goes to a shithole like Sacramento his career is likely going to have a very different arc, whereas I think guys like Doncic and (especially) Bagley are going to be stars no matter what.

 

[DJnVa]

Ayton's defensive troubles: https://www.theringer.com/march-madness/2018/3/16/17129698/deandre-ayton-buffalo-defense-ncaa-tournament

“Ayton doesn’t have natural shot-blocking instincts. I’ve been saying that for years,” one longtime recruiting analyst texted me after the game. “He might be the first positionless 5 on offense who doesn’t want to be a 5 on defense. He’s so strange.”

Low block numbers are the biggest red flag in Ayton’s statistical profile. They improved over the second half of the season from his historically poor performance in the first nine games, but he still lags far behind his peers.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Just a quick note on Bagley: in his first 20 games, he took 38 3s (1.9 per game) and made 12 (31.6%)

In his last 10 games, he has taken 17 3s (1.7 per game) and has made 9 (52.9%)

May just be SSS but his stroke looks really smooth

Sure it is a SSS however you'd expect to see progression from a big just implementing perimeter shooting into his game which he never needed up to this point. To me, the mechanics are much more important at this stage than the numbers but when you have the improvement in numbers which confirm the mechanics you can pretty much eliminate any concerns that this will be a weakness in his game.

 

[the moops]

It is actually a 7 game sample for there were three games in a row where he didn't attempt a three pointer. In other words, a completely meaningless sample

 

[tims4wins]

It is actually a 7 game sample for there were three games in a row where he didn't attempt a three pointer. In other words, a completely meaningless sample

But taking and making smart 3s is an important attribute. See Tatum, Jayson

 

[the moops]

But taking and making smart 3s is an important attribute. See Tatum, Jayson

Of course it is. I wouldn't say making 9 threes over 7 games tells us anything about his ability though

 

[BigSoxFan]

Ayton's defensive troubles: https://www.theringer.com/march-madness/2018/3/16/17129698/deandre-ayton-buffalo-defense-ncaa-tournament

You definitely saw some of this last night. There were a few plays where a much shorter player scored inside on him that a guy like Bamba would have swatted 5 rows up.

I definitely agree with his landing spot making a big impact on his career. The size and tools are enticing but the motor is not and his defense is underdeveloped. He “looks” like David Robinson physically but his form isn’t that great and his defensive instincts may never be more than average. His touch last night wasn’t great and he struggled when Buffalo collapsed on him, which obviously wouldn’t happen as much in the NBA.

If he goes to Phoenix, I’d be concerned about his development since that franchise is such a shit show. Going to Memphis and learning from Gasol would be ideal.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Of course it is. I wouldn't say making 9 threes over 7 games tells us anything about his ability though

If you think a big with good mechanics just beginning to expand his game taking and making 9 out of 17 3's is meaningless I don't know what to tell you. This isn't like Manute back in the day getting hot in one game with different release points on each shot. These are the results that the pro-Bagley folks have been expecting at some point during the second half of the year so when it occurs it isn't nothing......it is part of his development.

 

[slamminsammya]

Yea, 9 for 17 for a big man is not a small sample to me. At the very least it shows the prospect of extending his range is not impossible, like it would be for say Deandre Jordan. That alone is a big deal.

 

[the moops]

Yea, 9 for 17 for a big man is not a small sample to me. At the very least it shows the prospect of extending his range is not impossible, like it would be for say Deandre Jordan. That alone is a big deal.

Well sure. I was just quibbling with the breaking his sample down to his first 20 games where he shot poorly, and his next 10 games where he shot well. It is quite easy to find a 7 game sample of good shooting for just about anyone. If he had only made 5 out of 17, would we be concerned? Of course not. So nearly equally, we shouldn't be particularly impressed with him making 9.

 

[Big John]

Well, I need to watch more college games and more film, but at the top of this draft I like Doncic, because he just knows how to play, and Bamba, who looks gawky because of his build but who looks pretty well coached to me. Bagley reminds me a little of Derrick Coleman-- similar build, similar skills, left handed. Haven't really watched Ayton or Porter much.

With the Celtics' pick (currently #27), I like Chandler Hutchinson, the kid from Boise State. He's built like Reggie Lewis and has a little of that fluid quickness. Senior, late bloomer. I also like Killian Tillie, French, 6-9, athletic and shoots nearly 50% from the college 3 point line.

 

[Montana Fan]

Speaking of the draft, Brooklyn/Cavs pick is now #5. Tankathon mock has Cavs drafting Trae Young.

 

[DJnVa]

Trae Young has officially declared for the draft.

 

[NickEsasky]

Trae Young has officially declared for the draft.

His hair will most likely be remaining in college.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Mo Bamba has declared for the draft as well.

 

[Kliq]

I like Shake Milton out of SMU. 6'6" with great length, he reminds me a bit of Evan Turner except Milton is a better outside shooter than Turner, knocking down 42% from outside this season in college. He's really good in the half-court and creates for others; I think he is going to be a solid pro and could be a rotation player next season.

 

[benhogan]

Brandon McCoy, freshman out of UNLV, intrigues me.
Put up 33pts on Ayton.
7'1"/250lbs and filling out
Decent shooting touch 55% FG / 72.5% FT. 10.3 rebs/gm 28 mins/gm
still a bit clumsy/raw with the ball

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4278955/brandon-mccoy

 

[Boston Brawler]

Anfernee Simons officially declared for the draft per CBS

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Anfernee Simons officially declared for the draft per CBS

Interesting player and we get a taste of the unknown that GM's will be making crucial decisions on without seeing them on a college floor in the near future.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

This is surprising good news for the 2019 pick. Gafford’s returning to Arkansas and he could work himself into the conversation for the Kings pick if he shows decent improvement next year.


https://www.thestepien.com/daniel-gafford/

 

[DJnVa]

LiAngelo Ball has declared for the NBA draft.

 

[DJnVa]

I'm serious.

 

[allstonite]

I might as well get it over with too:

I declare for the NBA draft

 

[nighthob]

This is surprising good news for the 2019 pick. Gafford’s returning to Arkansas and he could work himself into the conversation for the Kings pick if he shows decent improvement next year.

Unless the Kings improve considerably Gafford won’t be in the discussion for that pick.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This is surprising good news for the 2019 pick. Gafford’s returning to Arkansas and he could work himself into the conversation for the Kings pick if he shows decent improvement next year.


https://www.thestepien.com/daniel-gafford/

Gafford seems like the type of athlete who a rebuilding lottery teams GM selects on his "upside 3-4 years" down the road (to extend his rebuilding window) rather than an Ainge guy who can contribute on a winning team while being a great rookie contract value play. He looks like he began playing basketball a few months ago, real clueless with schemes who impressed based on his size/length/athleticism advantage over other collegiate players. Not yet a fan of his, although this is fluid should he make a leap next year.......but he'd be wasted cap/tax dollars in our championship window and I don't feel that is in Ainge's plans at all.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I didn't realize Zion was only 6'6". I know it takes some impressive athleticism to carry 270 pounds at that height, but...hard pass.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Gafford seems like the type of athlete who a rebuilding lottery teams GM selects on his "upside 3-4 years" down the road (to extend his rebuilding window) rather than an Ainge guy who can contribute on a winning team while being a great rookie contract value play. He looks like he began playing basketball a few months ago, real clueless with schemes who impressed based on his size/length/athleticism advantage over other collegiate players. Not yet a fan of his, although this is fluid should he make a leap next year.......but he'd be wasted cap/tax dollars in our championship window and I don't feel that is in Ainge's plans at all.

And his lack of a projectable jumpshot alone probably takes him off of Ainge's radar, but next year's big class is looking really, really weak. I've typically seen Moses Brown projected as the second big off the board after Bol, and man, I've seen Brown a couple of times and I am not high. He's got the size, but everything else looks to me like the result of playing with a guy who could play PG in the NBA right now. (Yes, I'm pretty high on Cole Anthony). I'll be interested to see how he looks at UCLA next year. Haven't seen Nazreon Reid, sounds a bit like Wendell Carter Jr., but Gafford at least looks like a guy who can defend in space and protect the rim.

 

[sezwho]

I might as well get it over with too:
I declare for the NBA draft

Thats it, I'm in too.

I'm serious.

If he ditches Big Baller for Klutch Sports maybe Lebron will make the Cavs to draft him...then leave for the Lakers knowing LaVar will only be on the sideline for half the games.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Unless the Kings improve considerably Gafford won’t be in the discussion for that pick.

I should add that I'm thinking worst case scenario here, where the Kings end up somewhere around where they are now, in the 8-9 range. I hope and expect they'll be worse than that, but we'll be banking on their natural suckitude rather than them sucking intentionally for next year's inevitable tankathon. Outside of the Dukies and Bol, there's a bunch of interesting PGs and perimeter guys, plus a couple of international bigs who could separate themselves.

 

[BigMike]

I should add that I'm thinking worst case scenario here, where the Kings end up somewhere around where they are now, in the 8-9 range. I hope and expect they'll be worse than that, but we'll be banking on their natural suckitude rather than them sucking intentionally for next year's inevitable tankathon. Outside of the Dukies and Bol, there's a bunch of interesting PGs and perimeter guys, plus a couple of international bigs who could separate themselves.

And I've seen clips of Bol, and I don't get it, if he were in the class with this years group, I don't think he sees the top 10

 

[NoXInNixon]

I should add that I'm thinking worst case scenario here, where the Kings end up somewhere around where they are now, in the 8-9 range. I hope and expect they'll be worse than that, but we'll be banking on their natural suckitude rather than them sucking intentionally for next year's inevitable tankathon. Outside of the Dukies and Bol, there's a bunch of interesting PGs and perimeter guys, plus a couple of international bigs who could separate themselves.

After this year's tank fest, I don't think it will be that severe next year. A bunch of this year's bad teams will be looking to finally show some improvement, the odds of staying in the top 3 will be getting smaller, and the top level talent won't be as strong.

 

[benhogan]

And his lack of a projectable jumpshot alone probably takes him off of Ainge's radar, but next year's big class is looking really, really weak. I've typically seen Moses Brown projected as the second big off the board after Bol, and man, I've seen Brown a couple of times and I am not high. He's got the size, but everything else looks to me like the result of playing with a guy who could play PG in the NBA right now. (Yes, I'm pretty high on Cole Anthony). I'll be interested to see how he looks at UCLA next year. Haven't seen Nazreon Reid, sounds a bit like Wendell Carter Jr., but Gafford at least looks like a guy who can defend in space and protect the rim.

2019 Draft could get a bump if the NBA dissolves 1 and done. FBI investigation and Adam Silver's reaction is something to keep an eye on.

Three BIGS sit at the top of the 2019 HS class.

https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/2019

 

[TripleOT]

If the ping pong balls are kind this year, there's so much talent 2-5. I can't wait to see Ainge's smiling face when it comes up roses for him again.

The way the 2019 draft is shaping up, for the Celtics, it's like hitting Powerball the week after the huge Powerball pot is won.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

If the ping pong balls are kind this year, there's so much talent 2-5. I can't wait to see Ainge's smiling face when it comes up roses for him again. The way the 2019 draft is shaping up, for the Celtics, it's like hitting Powerball the week after the huge Powerball pot is won.

2.9% that the Lakers pick conveys to Boston (i.e #2-3), per Tankathon. How lucky are you feeling?

 

[DJnVa]

2.9% that the Lakers pick conveys to Boston (i.e #2-3), per Tankathon. How lucky are you feeling?

2.9% better than the other 50 win teams?

 

[DGreenwood]

If the ping pong balls are kind this year, there's so much talent 2-5. I can't wait to see Ainge's smiling face when it comes up roses for him again.

The way the 2019 draft is shaping up, for the Celtics, it's like hitting Powerball the week after the huge Powerball pot is won.

It's 2 or 3 or wait until 2019. They don't have a shot at pick 4 or 5.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

2019 Draft could get a bump if the NBA dissolves 1 and done. FBI investigation and Adam Silver's reaction is something to keep an eye on.

Three BIGS sit at the top of the 2019 HS class.

https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/2019

Yeah, that would be huge. Wish I had a better sense for how likely it is. Here's one draft site's rankings of the 2019 draft if the one and done rule is revoked. Wiseman jumps to #1, followed by the Dukies and Bol, then Carey and Bassey.

McDonald's All-American game is tomorrow night, here's some take aways from the scrimmages from Eric Bossi, who's well worth a follow for high school hoops stuff: https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/mcdonald-s-aa-game-zion-gets-going-more-takeaways

And they had their dunk contest, which of course means Zion had his dunk contest:


The third one, man, that's just elegant in its simplicity. With his off-hand too.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yeah, that would be huge. Wish I had a better sense for how likely it is. Here's one draft site's rankings of the 2019 draft if the one and done rule is revoked. Wiseman jumps to #1, followed by the Dukies and Bol, then Carey and Bassey.

McDonald's All-American game is tomorrow night, here's some take aways from the scrimmages from Eric Bossi, who's well worth a follow for high school hoops stuff: https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/mcdonald-s-aa-game-zion-gets-going-more-takeaways

And they had their dunk contest, which of course means Zion had his dunk contest:


The third one, man, that's just elegant in its simplicity. With his off-hand too.

If you ever wondered what the gangbang love-child of Shawn Kemp, LeBron, Lance Stephenson, and Julius Randle looked like just watch Zion Williamson.

 

[DJnVa]

Not surprising, but Miles Bridges has declared for the draft.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Not surprising, but Miles Bridges has declared for the draft.

Not at all. But some chatter around East Lansing that Jaren Jackson Jr will come back. Not really buying it and think it’s foolish as he’s a top 5 pick.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Haven't seen Nazreon Reid, sounds a bit like Wendell Carter Jr.

Earlier in the McDAAg but he’s looked good on the offensive end.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Earlier in the McDAAg but he’s looked good on the offensive end.

Dude can handle the rock for a big fella.

Romeo Langford is fun too.

 

[Kliq]

I don’t see Zion being a good pro. He can jump high; great so could Demetrius Walker.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

I don’t see Zion being a good pro. He can jump high; great so could Demetrius Walker.

Plus he only has one thumb.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Plus he only has one thumb.

I thought this was some kind of joke so I googled it.

Ouch...

 

[benhogan]

This year's Malcolm Brogdon Award has to go to Jalen Brunson. This site has him ranked #45:

http://www.nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard

I'd use a 2nd round pick on him in a heartbeat.

Also see Robert Williams has been dropping like a rock this year (at #20 now) rolling the dice on him with a late 1st rounder would be interesting.

 

[JakeRae]

This year's Malcolm Brogdon Award has to go to Jalen Brunson. This site has him ranked #45:

http://www.nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard

I'd use a 2nd round pick on him in a heartbeat.

Also see Robert Williams has been dropping like a rock this year (at #20 now) rolling the dice on him with a late 1st rounder would be interesting.

Tankathon has Brunson at 23. If I were picking a guy rated as a mid-Second most likely to contribute immediately it would be Jevon Carter.

 

[benhogan]

Tankathon has Brunson at 23. If I were picking a guy rated as a mid-Second most likely to contribute immediately it would be Jevon Carter.

agreed. Carter offers good value in the 2nd round.

I like guards that spend some time at college and run a system/program for a couple of years. Seems like those guys drop like rocks when it comes draft day (Brogdon, Van Fleet, Hart, etc)

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I think Carter's a good bet to be a valuable NBA player, but if there's one thing that gives me any pause with him, it's the Avery Bradley effect, where his lack of of size and length limit him to a one-position defender, and team defense potentially suffers even while it looks like he's playing elite man defense on opposing PGs. But he's stronger than Bradley, he's a better passer than Bradley, and an Avery Bradley approximation would be great value at the end of the first. Loved watching him get at it in college. He's such a pain in the ass for opposing PGs.

His teammate Konate is also on my list for incredibly fun college players who's lack of NBA length limit them at the next level. Block rate was higher than Bamba's, and those two-handed stuffs of guys trying to posterize him, particularly the Kansas game, were insane.