The End of the Counting Stat?

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Sorry if there is a discussion of JD Martinez not being in the top 3 in MVP voting this year is embedded in another thread. It seems to me that it's a rather significant development.

JDM had 51 more RBI than Trout. I think the idea that a player that far behind could be ahead in the MVP voting and from a noncontending team would have been unthinkable not very long ago. Unless there was some other very significant discrepancy, but there certainly wasn't here. JDM is ahead in all three triple crown categories.

Many media outlets are reporting the absurdity of JDM not being in the top 3 in MVP. That's a fair discussion. But to me the interesting question is whether critical mass really has been reached on how to analyze baseball players. Trout is worth about 20 runs alone viz. JDM in fielding and baserunning and he dominates in WAR-favorite, OBP. But I did not really think we had reached a point where a majority of the BBWAA was ready to fully embrace the importance of these things over, for example, RBI.

 

[jon abbey]

I think this happened when King Felix won the Cy Young in 2010 with a 13-12 W/L record.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=5820623

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think it started to turn with the Felix Hernandez CY Young when he went 13-12. The entirety of a season was taken into consideration as opposed to the traditional frontline numbers. It has taken a while, but that was the ice breaker

FBOFW

 

[TheoShmeo]

I think some writers do consider advanced stats enough for it to play a role in the vote.

But I also think that in this case, the fact that JDM is on the same team as a player most people put ahead of him is the much bigger culprit.

Make no mistake, JDM is clearly in the top 3 and is realistically the runner up.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Anyone who questions why Martinez isn't in the top 3 and doesn't want to buy the "analytics" discussion, just point out how often David Ortiz finished top three in MVP voting (teammate in the running or not). Despite Martinez playing a fair number of games in the outfield, he was primarily a DH. It still carries a bit of a stigma, advanced stats or no.

 

[snowmanny]

Anyone who questions why Martinez isn't in the top 3 and doesn't want to buy the "analytics" discussion, just point out how often David Ortiz finished top three in MVP voting (teammate in the running or not). Despite Martinez playing a fair number of games in the outfield, he was primarily a DH. It still carries a bit of a stigma, advanced stats or no.

Yeah, I thought Mookie Betts was the best overall player on the Red Sox in 2016 but I thought Ortiz hit so well and as a result was such a huge presence in the lineup that he was really the MVP of the team (and probably the league). But of course Betts finished second and I think Ortiz was fifth. JDM, as many have pointed out, filled much of the "void" in the lineup created by Ortiz's retirement. If Betts hadn't had such a great year the Trout/Martinez debate would have been interesting.

 

[scottyno]

I think some writers do consider advanced stats enough for it to play a role in the vote.

But I also think that in this case, the fact that JDM is on the same team as a player most people put ahead of him is the much bigger culprit.

Make no mistake, JDM is clearly in the top 3 and is realistically the runner up.

Trout was the best hitter in baseball this year, and is also obviously a much better fielder and baserunner than JDM No one other position player in all of baseball was anywhere near Betts or Trout this season. You can make a case for 3rd, but I can't imagine any possible argument for JDM in the top 2 that doesn't involve RBI or team wins.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Trout was the best hitter in baseball this year, and is also obviously a much better fielder and baserunner than JDM No one other position player in all of baseball was anywhere near Betts or Trout this season. You can make a case for 3rd, but I can't imagine any possible argument for JDM in the top 2 that doesn't involve RBI or team wins.

Trout had the 2nd best wOBA, 2 points behind Mookie, and 20 points ahead of JD.

 

[BaseballJones]

Trout was the best hitter in baseball this year

Was he?

Trout vs. Mookie
- Trout: 140 g, 608 plate appearances
- Betts: 136 g, 614 plate appearances

So almost identical opportunities for the two guys. This is important because it's not just about rate stats...we can actually do some counting stats (leaving RBI out of it).

2b, 3b, HR, XBH
- Trout: 24, 4, 39, 67 xbh
- Betts: 47, 5, 32, 84 xbh

H, BB, TB
- Trout: 147, 122, 296 tb
- Betts: 180, 81, 333 tb

AVG/OBP/SLG/OBP
- Trout: .312/.460/.628/1.088
- Betts: .346/.438/.640/1.078

So this year, from a hitting standpoint, Trout walked more and hit more homers, but Betts was better in every other offensive category. More hits, more XBH, more total bases, better average, even a higher slugging percentage. Trout was phenomenal this year obviously, but I don't see the argument that he was the best hitter this year. Betts was better as I see it.

 

[Max Power]

Trout was also super unclutch this year, which should play a part in an award which is backwards looking rather than forward looking. He drove in 13.6% of runners on base when he came up, versus 20.9% for JD and 17.6% for Mookie. Pitchers didn't give him a chance to drive in runners and he wasn't particularly good when they did.

Did all those walks and great baserunning lead to tons of runs for the Angels? No, Trout scored 26% of the time he reached base, JD scored 31%, and Mookie scored 41% of the time.

You could still argue that his defense made him more valuable overall than Martinez, but I feel like we've gone too far in assigning value to context neutral stats when you're trying to figure out which guy helped the team win the most games last year. The Red Sox actually won 108 games and the players made that happen. Whether that was luck or skill isn't really relevant. They did it.

 

[scottyno]

Trout had the 2nd best wOBA, 2 points behind Mookie, and 20 points ahead of JD.

I guess it's fair to argue Betts vs Trout. Though Trout beat him in OPS, OPS+ and WRC+, so which one you prefer might come down to your preferred advanced metric. I don't think there's any metric that would rank JDM over either of them offensively this year though.

 

[scottyno]

Trout was also super unclutch this year, which should play a part in an award which is backwards looking rather than forward looking. He drove in 13.6% of runners on base when he came up, versus 20.9% for JD and 17.6% for Mookie. Pitchers didn't give him a chance to drive in runners and he wasn't particularly good when they did.

He slugged 731 with risp and 638 with runners on at all, so it seems like when he was given a chance to drive in those runs he did ok. It's hard to drive in runs when you're getting walked 1/4th of the time you come up with men on.

 

[lexrageorge]

I can see voting for Betts or Trout over JDM. I cannot see who should come in 3rd over JDM, however.

 

[pokey_reese]

Even before King Felix, I think Zack Greinke paved the way for him in 2009. In a season that had multiple 19-game winners in the AL, including big name guys pitching for good teams (like CC Sabathia), Greinke got the Cy Young with 16 wins for a last place KC team that only won 65 games, and he absolutely deserved it. That was the turning point for me, I remember thinking that we had finally broken through some nonsense in the voting there, and then Felix was the doubling down as the voters realized they could actually reward the best pitcher.

 

[pokey_reese]

I can see voting for Betts or Trout over JDM. I cannot see who should come in 3rd over JDM, however.

Jose Ramirez isn't a bad candidate.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

I guess it's fair to argue Betts vs Trout. Though Trout beat him in OPS, OPS+ and WRC+, so which one you prefer might come down to your preferred advanced metric. I don't think there's any metric that would rank JDM over either of them offensively this year though.

I think (think) that those other metrics give Trout value for IBB's that wOBA doesn't. Trout had 17 more intentional walks than Mookie.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Jose Ramirez isn't a bad candidate.

Yeah - Chapman, Ramirez & Lindor all had higher WAR than JD. Defense does count.

 

[lexrageorge]

Yeah - Chapman, Ramirez & Lindor all had higher WAR than JD. Defense does count.

Ramirez and Lindor I can grant you. Chapman just shows that WAR is not a perfect stat, and why the MVP should not simply go to the player with the highest WAR. MLB can add another trophy for that.

 

[djbayko]

JD not being in the final 3 has everything to do with the existence of Betts, IMO. Voters are not going to be inclined to give high rankings for 2 "most valuable" players on the same team. Mookie is the clear winner between the two, so JD's total suffers as a result. Being a part-time DH doesn't help, but it's mostly about Betts.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I think each team can only have one most valuable player, but every team has one. So the (not necessarily sabre based) question is simply, "Which of those players was most responsible for putting their team over the top?" - which should only apply to a team that exceeds the sum of its talent - and that's where making the playoffs can be one of the criteria.

So, for me, the AL MVP has to be an Oakland A - and I'd vote for Blake Treinen.

 

[snowmanny]

I think each team can only have one most valuable player, but every team has one. So the (not necessarily sabre based) question is simply, "Which of those players was most responsible for putting their team over the top?" - which should only apply to a team that exceeds the sum of its talent - and that's where making the playoffs can be one of the criteria.

So, for me, the AL MVP has to be an Oakland A - and I'd vote for Blake Treinen.

Sherm Douglas was the main reason the 1995 Celtics were the 8 seed and made the playoffs but that probably doesn’t make him MVP.

 

[scottyno]

I think (think) that those other metrics give Trout value for IBB's that wOBA doesn't. Trout had 17 more intentional walks than Mookie.

Guessing this is probably correct, if you calculated ops taking out intentional walks Mookie would move slightly ahead of Trout. I think they should count, but I can understand the argument that they could be left out.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Sherm Douglas was the main reason the 1995 Celtics were the 8 seed and made the playoffs but that probably doesn’t make him MVP.

I'm being too pedantic. Some folks think of the word valuable literally (like me). Others think the award should really be for the best player, which is probably closer to its intent.

 

[Rice4HOF]

I'm being too pedantic. Some folks think of the word valuable literally (like me). Others think the award should really be for the best player, which is probably closer to its intent.

Ironically (um, I mean coincidentally) enough I wrote an article which compared the MVP candidacies of Betts and Trout.... 2 years ago!

In it I make the argument that it really depends on your definition of valuable vs best.

I point out that it should be the best because a 15 WAR player on a team which wins the division by 20 was, by definition, not that valuable to that team. (I.e., they could have won without him)

Edit: wrong link
https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2016/09/emm-vee-pee.html

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Ramirez and Lindor I can grant you. Chapman just shows that WAR is not a perfect stat, and why the MVP should not simply go to the player with the highest WAR. MLB can add another trophy for that.

Why do you say this? What is it about Chapman that makes you assume his WAR is not as indicative of value as Ramirez' and Lindor's?

 

[lexrageorge]

Why do you say this? What is it about Chapman that makes you assume his WAR is not as indicative of value as Ramirez' and Lindor's?

A poster that will remain nameless thought the reference was to Aroldis Chapman, not Matt Chapman. Said poster stands corrected and walks away in shame, donning his Kevin Chapman hat.

 

[tims4wins]

To me Mookie was the Sox best player and from a statistical perspective clearly helped their run differential more than JDM due to his defense. That said, I think JDM was the Sox most valuable player not only due to his stats but due to the effect he had on the rest of the lineup. Simply put he took so much pressure off the other guys.

 

[Sox Puppet]

We're going to have a similar "death of the counting stat" debate if DeGrom defeats Scherzer for the NL Cy Young (despite a 10-9 record on a bad team). Scherzer hit an even 300K and finished with an 18-7 record. Other peripherals (K/BB, K%, WHIP, IP) were similar to DeGrom's, but DeGrom had a 216 ERA+ to Scherzer's 168.

 

[LesterFan]

I love JD but I don't understand the outrage over him not being a finalist. The AL was stacked this year - Betts, Trout, Ramirez, Bregman, Lindor. Given how JD was primarily a DH and when he did play the field he wasn't good, and the fact that he rated as a bottom 20 baserunner in FanGraphs' metric, he simply didn't add enough value outside of his bat. That's not a knock on him. There were some really great, all-around players in the AL this year.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

We're going to have a similar "death of the counting stat" debate if DeGrom defeats Scherzer for the NL Cy Young (despite a 10-9 record on a bad team). Scherzer hit an even 300K and finished with an 18-7 record. Other peripherals (K/BB, K%, WHIP, IP) were similar to DeGrom's, but DeGrom had a 216 ERA+ to Scherzer's 168.

I think pitchers are a bit different. I get the feeling that wins as a stat is completely devalued in most reasonable circles. But RBI and HRs are still big deals and to have Trout garner more votes than a guy who flirted with a triple crown for the whole Mlb feels a little more momentous to me.

WAR loves Mike Trout and so one interpretation of the vote is that even the writers are starting to equate the things that contribute to WAR with the things that are most valuable. That is a bit surprising to me. I always kind of viewed the BBWAA as infected by some regressive old-school types with significant say within baseball circles. Until recently, I would have imagined a fair number not even ready to accept that models based on run production and prevention are that valuable.

I get the two players on one team issue. But even so there is more going on here. Trout had 51 fewer RBI. That is a very big number and I’m surprised and kind of impressed that a significant number of voters saw past that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I love JD but I don't understand the outrage over him not being a finalist. The AL was stacked this year - Betts, Trout, Ramirez, Bregman, Lindor. Given how JD was primarily a DH and when he did play the field he wasn't good, and the fact that he rated as a bottom 20 baserunner in FanGraphs' metric, he simply didn't add enough value outside of his bat. That's not a knock on him. There were some really great, all-around players in the AL this year.

Agreed. J.D. would have to take a number at the complaints window along with Bregman, Lindor and even Chapman. This is a year where it's very clear who the top two are, and after that, it's a pile-up.

 

[joe dokes]

Aside from the substantive reasonableness of the other guys getting some extra credit for their non-batting contributions, have they released the vote totals. For all we know, JDM finished 1 point out of 3rd.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Aside from the substantive reasonableness of the other guys getting some extra credit for their non-batting contributions, have they released the vote totals. For all we know, JDM finished 1 point out of 3rd.

Vote totals get released when the winners are announced. You may be right, and it's an important point. The "finalists", which is a new thing they've only just started doing the last few years, are simply the top three in the voting. Third place, while being named a finalist, could and likely is a lot closer to the fourth, fifth, and sixth place finisher than the winner in a lot of these races.

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

I also think the voters need to look at trends. Jose Ramirez was beyond great through 3/4ths of the year. The last 30+ games he was as bad as any regular player in the league at the plate outside of Sandy Leon. He absolutely cratered (0.171 AVG with <0.300 SA last 30 games) and the eye test and results show he simply was way out of sorts. As we all saw it continued in the 3 game sweep as he was hitless and looked totally lost. That guy should NOT have been in the top 3.

Plus my guess is Alex Bregman might have finished 4th. Another comment on some fielding stats - Bregman is listed as a MINUS 0.1 on Baseball Reference. That gives me pause as great as Matt Chapman might be (listed as PLUS 3.5 and winning the gold glove), my eyes tell me Alex Bregman is a PLUS (maybe a PLUS PLUS) defender at third.

 

[joe dokes]

Plus my guess is Alex Bregman might have finished 4th. Another comment on some fielding stats - Bregman is listed as a MINUS 0.1 on Baseball Reference. That gives me pause as great as Matt Chapman might be (listed as PLUS 3.5 and winning the gold glove), my eyes tell me Alex Bregman is a PLUS (maybe a PLUS PLUS) defender at third.

I can only speak for myself, but I only saw a handful of games that each one played. Bregman was obviously a glove-beast in the ALCS, but 5 games doesn't mean much.

 

[scottyno]

I also think the voters need to look at trends. Jose Ramirez was beyond great through 3/4ths of the year. The last 30+ games he was as bad as any regular player in the league at the plate outside of Sandy Leon. He absolutely cratered (0.171 AVG with <0.300 SA last 30 games) and the eye test and results show he simply was way out of sorts. As we all saw it continued in the 3 game sweep as he was hitless and looked totally lost. That guy should NOT have been in the top 3.

Why should the end of the year count more? You can just as easily make the argument that in Ramirez case it should be reversed, he was great when the Indians games mattered, and when he was bad the Indians had long since been locked in to the 3 seed so it didn't matter.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I can only speak for myself, but I only saw a handful of games that each one played. Bregman was obviously a glove-beast in the ALCS, but 5 games doesn't mean much.

Yes. As with the other basic baseball skills, fielding is not something that some players always do well and others never do well. Even mediocre fielders sometimes make great plays, just as even weak hitters will now and then hit a moonshot and a fifth starter might strike out the side on a dozen pitches. That's why advanced defensive stats, for all their flaws, are so useful -- they're the antidote to evaluation by highlight clip.