The evolution and evaluation of Jamie Collins
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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I've long thought Belichick takes "minimax" strategies a lot of the time, and will forgo top-end talent for a reliable floor.
There's video. You can see him bite at the bait.
Rodney took a shot at Collins on Football Night in America. They showed the video of Witten beating him the for TD then cut to Collins joking and chuckling on the bench with a teammate after the play. Harrison says, "And this is the reason why Belichick got rid of him. Laughing, smiling...it's no big deal"
He's with family now. You spill some wine at Thanksgiving, you just clean it up and go back laughing and talking to the family. This isn't a business. It's all about his 0-whatever family.
Edit: all joking aside, i know he's only been there a week and I had huge hopes for Collins. He may be fantastic outside of the Patriots "restrictive system"
Heh. I was still thinking about Rodney in the post above yours because you led with "family" and I was thinking how awesome it is he's like a Patriot for life after San Diego and how unlikely that would have once seemed.
But yeah, I agree. Collins is an almost otherworldly talent and I really hope that he can flourish outside of the restrictive system and be a transcendent LB, maybe in the mold of, say, L.T.?
Collins was never considered good in coverage, was he? I mean, chortle snort about the Witten TD, but that's not playing to his strengths. I'd give him a few weeks to see if he settles into a role that works better for him.
After watching that Cleveland game yesterday I don't think the Pats will miss Collins all that much. But I also think that Belichick would take a do over on the Chandler Jones trade if he could.
I don't know, I think 4 years of Joe Thuney and Malcolm Mitchell on rookie deals looks pretty good.
They didn't need to trade Chandler Jones to get those guys. Would you feel differently if they had traded #60 for Thuney and Mitchell and used the pick from the Cardinals on Cyrus Jones?
True, but would you take anyone seriously if they said that Zachary Brown was in the bottom third at his position, or was a shadow of his former self?
Yes, there are a number of ways that tackle stats can be inflated 10-15 percent, maybe even more over 8 games, by ways other than an OLB or ILB playing football about as well as he did the prior season. But I will hold to the statement that if an OLB has his solo tackles at the same rate as a year where he went to the Pro Bowl, the likelihood of him being a shadow of his former self - and it not being visible on the standard game broadcasts! - is exactly zero.
He also got clowned by Elliott a couple times - though, to be fair, the entire defense got their turn - and was a non-factor as a pass rusher.
I give him a pass as he probably had like three practice days in the new system but he looked like a completely different player to me than the was the last time the Cowboys saw him.
I wouldn't. The value they got for Chandler is about what you'd expect and the fact that Thuney appears to be a great pick, Mitchell a good one, and Cyrus a pretty bad one (although he has lots of time to come back) doesn't change things for me.
There are huge problems with the tackle stat before you even start looking at it closely:
1. Tackles are decided by the home scorer - and there are often more 'solo' tackles for a game than there were plays (let alone running plays + receptions).
2. Bad defenses produce more tackles than good defenses, as they allow more total plays.
3. Tackle distribution is largely a factor of scheme, not talent. Schemes that tell lineman to fill gaps and allow their linebackers to watch the holes produce a lot of tackles for those linebackers, even when those linebackers are playing poorly.
4. They make no measure of where the tackle is - a OLB plugging a hole and tackling the running back is exactly the same as a OLB getting hit by the RB 4 yards downfield and getting dragged another 6 for a first down.
In short, tackle rate is less than meaningless.
I'd argue that it's not meaningless but rather more like wins and losses for a pitcher. It means you showed up and did something good but hard to quantify how good.
Using your post to argue that it's meaningless is bait for a meaningless conversation.
Using your post to argue that it's meaningless is bait for a meaningless conversation.
I mentioned RBI's initially and I think that comparison holds pretty well.
Id also add that I dont thin evaluating Collins coming in midseason and playing for a terrible new team in a different scheme is going to be a fair way to judge him.,
Id also add that I dont thin evaluating Collins coming in midseason and playing for a terrible new team in a different scheme is going to be a fair way to judge him.,
I'm of the opinion that Jones was traded because of his synthetic weed incident that happened the night before a playoff game.
It was a week before, not the night before. But it may have played a (huge) part.
Minor nitpick: it happened on Sunday of the wildcard weekend, not the night before a playoff game but a week before the KC game.
Oops, yeah you're right.
I think Bill thought he had no choice but to trade him after that. Very disappointing that he couldn't have waited a month to do whatever synthetic drugs he wanted.
He was playing in front of the same scorer in the same system for the same team.
Keep trying.
That is a good comp. You may remember a comparable debate on BA back when the site started to get annoying, when folks eventually admitted that it would be really fucking hard to hit .315 and over and have a shitty season.
I totally agree with this. Doesn't seem like he loves football. Not sure he will stay in the best of shape and is a lazy player at times.
This is more of a rhetorical question since no one here can answer it, but what the hell happened to him?! In a contract year where he's looking at probably a $100 million contract with $40 million in guarantees if he plays like he did the previous year, he decides to stop caring and starts dogging it out on the field? Albert haynesworth was smart enough to play hard through the contract year and then he stopped playing hard. It takes a special kind of stupid to give up during the contract year. So glad the Pats didn't make the mistake of resigning him earlier like most of us had hoped for. His agent must be pulling his hair out watching these games.
Sheard is a bit more strange, but Collins is likely going to coast to a minimum of 15 million guaranteed this offseason, even with how this season has played out. He may just want to stay healthy, get that paper, and sign off for good. It's a violent game, not sure I can blame him too much.
As you said, the answer is currently unknowable. But I will go with what I believe is the most likely scenario:
Guy comes into league at 24, and quickly impresses with displays of freakish athletic ability. Takes part of his rookie year to get adjusted to the play schemes, the speed of the game, etc., but soon blossoms into a genuine star. Sure, he freelances, and sometimes misses an assignment or two, but his ability lets him get away with it, and he's able to accept the criticism of the coaching staff when it happens because he still gets accolades for the many plays he does make.
Suddenly, he's 27; not old, but no longer young. Reflexes are perhaps a bit slower. Nagging injuries take longer to heal. Daily pain becomes less easy to cope with. Opposing offensive coordinators have film to work with and know his tendencies. Ability alone is no longer enough to make those plays. Coaching staff calls him out when he doesn't make a play that he should have made, and he feels he's being singled out unfairly. He wants a HUGE contract more than anything else, and begins to realize that he won't see that contract offer from the Pats. One of his friends in a contract year just got traded in the offseason just because he smoked some weed. Rather than fighting through it, he decides to fight the coaches instead, blaming the stupid scheme they want him to follow, a scheme he feels underutilizes his skills.
It's a movie that gets played out over and over again across the league. Kudos to Belichick for deciding to get in front of the situation before it derails an already fragile defensive squad.
It's been said over and over again how much BB values "love of the game" in a player. It makes sense that the converse must be equally true (that he has no place for someone who does NOT love the game). As with most matters of the heart, love cannot be taught, forced, or persuaded. If Collins had no love for football, he really had no future with the Pats. And that culture of "love of the game" over all, may have made football a heinous thing for Collins, such that he lost interest in playing and certainly in listening to the coaches.
I don't know if this is true. I seem to recall that Logan Mankins didn't love football, but the Patriots kept him around until his ability slipped below his cost in the value equation.
Not sure about Mankins, but this team drafted Easley knowing he'd prefer to watch cartoons than football and never even watched the Super Bowl for more than two quarters.
So after a few more data points, how are BB and the Pats faring with replacing Collins' production? While there is a certain amount of snark to that comment, I'm curious to hear observational/tactical analysis and would offer some, but I know others here are much more astute. In the interest of discussion though, I'll add:
Week 13 vs. Rams
Hightower - 1 tackle, 1 assist
McClellin - 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 tackle, 5 assists
KVN - 0 tackles, 4 assists
Team stats: 18 tackles, 22 assists, 4 sacks, 5 TFL, 9 QBH, 2 INTs
Week 14 vs. Ravens
McClellin - 3 tackles, 6 assists
KVN - 1 tackle, 3 assists
Hightower - 1 tackle, 6 assists
Team stats: 31 tackles, 34 assists, 2 sacks, 3 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 INT
Week 15 @ Broncos
KVN - 4 tackles, 2 assists, 1 TFL, 1 FF
Hightower - 1 tackle, 2 assists
McClellin - 1 tackle, 1 assist
Team stats: 39 tackles, 12 assists, 4 sacks, 6 TFL, 5QBH, 1 INT
Week 13 vs. Rams
Hightower - 1 tackle, 1 assist
McClellin - 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 tackle, 5 assists
KVN - 0 tackles, 4 assists
Team stats: 18 tackles, 22 assists, 4 sacks, 5 TFL, 9 QBH, 2 INTs
Week 14 vs. Ravens
McClellin - 3 tackles, 6 assists
KVN - 1 tackle, 3 assists
Hightower - 1 tackle, 6 assists
Team stats: 31 tackles, 34 assists, 2 sacks, 3 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 INT
Week 15 @ Broncos
KVN - 4 tackles, 2 assists, 1 TFL, 1 FF
Hightower - 1 tackle, 2 assists
McClellin - 1 tackle, 1 assist
Team stats: 39 tackles, 12 assists, 4 sacks, 6 TFL, 5QBH, 1 INT
I think the evaluation of the Patriot defense will really come in the playoffs. Right now they are ranked 20th in the league on DVOA, but should probably see some lift in that after a nice performance against the Denver Enigmas. On the offensive side of the ball they remain pretty juggernaut-y at 3rd in total DVOA, 1st in pass, 16th in rushing.
The Pats defense is 1st in points but haven't played any good offenses except Pitt's and even then they faced Jones at QB instead of the Rapist. So it's really hard to tell their quality, although in my book leaving Denver with a win and 3 points allowed is a good day for any team.
As for Collins, I haven't watched full Browns games much but from what I saw yesterday he was dogging it pretty good against Buffalo. But they're 0-14 and have nothing else so that's unfair to judge too.
As for Collins, I haven't watched full Browns games much but from what I saw yesterday he was dogging it pretty good against Buffalo. But they're 0-14 and have nothing else so that's unfair to judge too.
When measured by points allowed the Pats' defense has pretty consistently outperformed its DVOA ratings; I'm sure in part this results from defense and special teams but the bend but don't break philsophy--which will lead to a lot of plays that are successful per DVOA--is a culprit.
