The Farm in 2018 (A poll!)

Where will the Red Sox farm system rank this winter?

  • 1-5

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 6-10

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • 11-15

    Votes: 4 4.7%
  • 16-20

    Votes: 18 21.2%
  • 21-25

    Votes: 44 51.8%
  • 26-30

    Votes: 18 21.2%

  • Total voters
    85
  • Poll closed .

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
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Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
There's virtually nothing left of any value as far as trades go. Michael Chavis is the only upper minors player who has met or exceeded expectations in the past year, so any other prospect included in a deal is being bought as pure potential/a lotto ticket.

Jay Groome is probably still the top prospect the organization has left, but his injury trouble and lack of performance on the field tanks his value, at least for now.

Bryan Mata has made himself very intriguing, but he was in Greenville all year.

Sam Travis shot his value in the foot with a howitzer.

Josh Ockimey had a solid but not an eye-opening year. Still waiting for him to get to that power in games consistently.

Bobby Dalbec couldn't make contact with a beach ball.

Roniel Raudes took a step back.

So it's 2017 draftees and IFA signings, Mata, Chavis and a bunch of pieces that lost value on the year, or at best, stagnated.

Where does this system rank in the winter org rankings that the major publications do? I'm going to guess in the 26-30 range. And that's not a complaint. I agree with Dombrowski's approach of converting what was left on the farm after graduating the new core into useful major league parts, and I think he made good trades for the most part. I'm just commenting on where that left us.

I'm actually kind of high on the draft and IFA classes from this past summer, too. I think there's a pretty good chance we end up with a couple of stud prospects out of Houck, Flores, Brannen, Scherff, Diaz, Netzer and Thompson (Scherff and Flores especially). But in the meantime, this farm system is going to see some ugly rankings.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
26-30.

In regards to Dalbec, he did finish the season on fire and his end of year numbers were actually ok. In the last 16 games, he hit .338/.434/.708... but with a .500 BAbip in 76 PA. He had 9 doubles, 6 HRs, 9bb/26k in that period. Long story short, his end of year line is really misleading and doesn't show just how disappointing he actually was. 123k in 329 PA at the A level is pretty brutal.

A few other pieces improved their stock, but they were never big prospects to begin with. Guys like Darwinzon Hernandez, Tzu Wei Lin (who returned to old form in AAA), and Jalen Beeks. The latter could even play dividends next year at the MLB level.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
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Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Yeah, Beeks looks like he could be a solid depth starter type. And yeah, Devers graduated. They might have 2 top 100 prospects if they are lucky. Chavis and Groome. Groome, if he's on those lists, will be closer to the back end than the front. Chavis could be around 50 or so (maybe a little higher on some lists, probably lower on others). He'll be a polarizing guy for the rankings discussions, but he belongs on the lists for sure. Leaving Groome off is justifiable, IMO. At least until he gets back on the mound and sustains some success.

Dalbec will need to show me a K% below 37 (way below) for a long stretch before I consider him a prospect worth watching again. There's a glimmer of hope there, given that his season was tanked by a hand injury and the subsequent recovery, but 37%? Jebus.

Edit: On the upside, maybe they'll get lucky and Kevin Maitan will get released back into the IFA pool, then agree to sign with Boston for their remaining $900K or so in IFA bonus money. :)
 
Last edited:

grimshaw

Member
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May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
From looking around - they were 20th-ish post deadline but that was with Devers.

They'll definitely drop a few spots, but none of the bottom 10 systems have an impact guy like Devers either with the exception of Brendan Rogers in Colorado. So him graduating makes less of a difference when stacking up with the worst systems.

Put me down for 24th with Texas, Detroit and maybe Baltimore passing them. Maybe lower if/when the Marlins cash in on Stanton and others.

I think Groome dropping will be offset by Chavis and their international signings. What they do still have are a decent collection of bullpen arms which used to not mean jack shit, but are now pretty important given what teams pay for established guys on deadline day.
 
Last edited:

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
21,478
Rogers Park
I don't think the 26-30 set are really recognizing how bad some farm systems are.

KC and Anaheim would *kill* to have a Michael Chavis type. The Marlins don't have much over A ball, and our A ball mysteries look better to me than theirs. SF's top prospects got some time in MLB, and really didn't impress. I think they've slid, if anything.

I think our system is comparable, maybe a bit better, than Baltimore's. So this puts us in the 22-25 range. Solidly in the back half, but big 2018 seasons from a few guys could turn things around in a hurry. (I suppose one could say that about any system.)
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
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Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
While I'm sure both the Angels and the Marlins would love to have Chavis in their systems and probably Groome, I think Jordon Adell and Jahmai Jones from the Angels system have higher ceilings than anyone in Boston's.

From the Marlins I'd say Brian Anderson is probably a decent comp for Chavis. I wouldn't say either system is significantly worse than Boston's, though I'd certainly rather have the Red Sox farm over Miami's, personally.

I'm unconvinced either way with a comparison to Anaheim's, though I really like Daniel Flores and Danny Diaz from this most recent IFA class and they have otherwise similarly valuable top 10's.

As I said, I like Adell and Jones for ceiling and would probably take them over anyone the Sox have. But you can probably lump them in with Chavis and Groome as likely top 100 guys (I'd have Adell in the top 50 easily, though), and then look at the rest separately. Though I like Daniel Flores better than anyone else in the Angels' system.

Jaime Barria and Bryan Mata sort of fill the same role, though Barria is more advanced. Matt Thaiss reminds me quite a bit of Josh Ockimey. Griffin Canning and Tanner Houck are pretty good comps. Same thing for Chris Rodriguez and Alex Scherff. Grayson long and Mike Shawaryn?

They seem like pretty similar systems to me. I'll grant you that Miami is likely to rate worse. KC too. I'm not sold on your claim about Baltimore, though. Sisco, Hays and Hall would almost certainly be the top 3 in Boston. Mountcastle may not be a shortstop long enough to hit the majors at the position, but his bat will play elsewhere. I think the Sox slot in behind Baltimore pretty comfortably.

San Francisco's system I could go either way on. Shaw seems like a decent Chavis proxy. I'd probably even prefer him. More consistent success in the minors, more advanced. Christian Arroyo may have looked overmatched in a brief stint in the majors and his hand injury does introduce a new question, but he's still generally regarded as a potential plus bat and his glove is ready. I wouldn't hold those 135 PAs against him.

But let's just say the Sox edge them out. That puts them at 28th on my list. And even if we were to just go with your assessment, that still puts them at 25th, not solidly in the 22-25 range.

I'm going to be very surprised if they are as high as 22 this winter.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
The difference between the 22nd best farm in the system and the 26 or 27th best is probably close to infinitesimal anyway and comes down to opinion.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
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Oct 19, 2008
12,408
I put them in the 21-25 range for two reasons

1.) while Groome's overall numbers and injuries were disappointing, he did flash some dominant games that keep the potential unchanged for me. He's not Trey Ball.

2.) I imagine getting several 7 figure IFAs will be seen by the publications that like that sort of thing as a big boost to the system.

Honorable mention that Houck was good enough to validate the #1 pick choice.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
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Mar 11, 2008
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I read BA's series on top prospects in the various leagues in 2017. This tidbit on Chavis from the Carolina League list caught my eye...

Defensively, he has a chance to stick at third base with continued work. If not there then some evaluators suggested that the athletic ability that allowed him to play shortstop at high school could prompt a move to second base.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-carolina-league-top-20-prospects/#K3Y9xM3h1I1CgeZD.97

It'll be interesting to see if they start getting him reps there this spring and maybe groom him to be an offensive utility type with an eye on replacing Pedroia long term?
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I read BA's series on top prospects in the various leagues in 2017. This tidbit on Chavis from the Carolina League list caught my eye...


http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-carolina-league-top-20-prospects/#K3Y9xM3h1I1CgeZD.97

It'll be interesting to see if they start getting him reps there this spring and maybe groom him to be an offensive utility type with an eye on replacing Pedroia long term?

I've been telling people that Chavis is best fit to play 2b for awhile now. I hope they do. His bat will definitely play at 2b.