Could be, but its possible no one was open downfield, which seemed to be a theme today. Not too many guys were running free.
Maybe BB will bury the ball.
The Game Goat Thread: Week 10 at Tennessee
- Thread starter SeoulSoxFan
- Start date
Maybe BB will bury the ball.
He was but for weeks now he's been fidgety in the pocket while not under pressure and that happened again in the early portion of the game. I can recall one classic Brady step up in the pocket and deliver a strike moment in today's game. He looks not very confident back there at the moment.
It only takes a split second to get open and if he's flinching and giving up on a play early then he may not be giving his receivers a chance to do their job. (Not that I'm too confident in guys not named Edelman, Gordon, and White)
Last edited:
Dion Lewis said that the Patriots "went cheap and that's why they go their ass kicked."
I mean, okay. But you were here, you know what talking in week 9 gets you. Nothing.
Also, did Pats sign him off street then give extension right after he was injured because they believed in him?
I mean, okay. But you were here, you know what talking in week 9 gets you. Nothing.
Also, did Pats sign him off street then give extension right after he was injured because they believed in him?
I don't disagree with your assessment but not sure why this is on McDaniels. Gordon is the only outside threat they have and the only player who can beat press coverage. Put a bullseye on White, bracket Edelman, make them beat you with the run game (minus Mason and with a banged-up Michel) or secondary receivers.
The offense has no foundational element. The short pass game isn't there this year. If the run game isn't working, it's misdirection or bombing it out to Gordon.
From that silly ESPN piece: "Despite finishing with 1,110 total yards of offense in 2017, the Patriots allowed Lewis to walk via free agency."
Pretty impressive that the Pats went 13-3 despite only mustering 70 yards of offense a game.
Pretty impressive that the Pats went 13-3 despite only mustering 70 yards of offense a game.
Dorsett has gone MIA after a few productive games to start the season. Don't think he is hurt so why not get him involved in the deep passing game. Rather inexplicable that NE really didn't target Butler all game. He had to be in 1-1 at some point today. I don't recall hearing his name once.
There was a stat flashed by CBS late 3rd / early 4th about avg start position - was Ten about 45 and NE about 25 by memory. Huge difference like you say. I was surprised DoTB didn't stroke after the first kick was short and returned to midfield.
It didn't feel like NE ever tried to establish the run. Even with a weakened Sony, CP had done okay but they didn't try much.
TB12 does appear more jittery in the pocket, but he was also great last week. Maybe it is the 41 yo ness catching up or maybe it was the weakened line.
An interesting observation about the 'forcing it to Gordon.' TB12 does often show disgust when WR do something wrong, he doesn't show much of that with Gordon. Maybe because JG has still limited routes so he can't make wrong reads but maybe also TB12 knows he isn't placing it quite like he used to.
Ed raised a question about Tom not being top 5 anymore. And while I disagreed I think it certainly is a discussion that he has lost something off his fastball. I still don't see 5 other QBs I'd take over TB THIS YEAR but he certainly seems less consistent than in past years.
So as someone put it maybe they aren't 'elite' anymore they are a very good team, they are 7-3 still with an inside track to the #2 seed. Dec 16 at the Steelers looms large, because of course it does(I'll be in house for that).
Did they win the Super Bowl against the Giants by forcing the ball to Moss? forcing the ball to one target has rarely worked in the Pats favor. It has won the some games over the years, Moss and Gronk being the usual targets, but those teams didn't win at the end of the season.
Forcing the ball to Moss? Welker was the best Patriot in that game by a wide margin. He had 11 catches for over 100 yards. And questioning the decision to throw to Moss that season is absurd. Brady had Moss a few times that game and missed him. Probably because he played with a broken foot.
I meant even in the instances where the pressure wasn't crazy in his face, he was off. Not that he faced little pressure from the Titans all day. They certainly made him uncomfortable, but there were a few times where I thought he threw it away or made an inaccurate throw when he could have stepped up or where he had more space than he thought he did. Which is just to say he's been off in the pocket for a few games now. Not taking anything away from the Titans though.
This is what I meant, thanks for stating it a little more clearly. I really am interested in taking a closer look at his footwork when I re-watch the game later on. I hadn't noticed the footwork, but that would be interesting to monitor.
This also hit on what I was trying to say. Flinchy is the way I'd describe it, he bails out way early a lot, especially as of late. Doesn't help there were OL injuries, but he's been better with worse.
I would also like to see Dorsett play more at Hogan's expense, but neither of those guys can beat press coverage. I don't think Edelman is back to where he was pre-injury, despite his stats today - they schemed him open with PA a lot and I don't think he's getting the separation he used to. They would be a total mess without Gordon. You can see why they're trying so hard to get Gronk healthy.
Yes, and they also have a lousy offense that beat the brakes off the Pats D.
Might be picking a nit, but the Jags did go to the AFCCG last year and started off on fire, and the Titans went to the divisional last year and though while only 5-4 have knocked off Philly and the Pats.
I think Mariota sucks. If these teams play 10 times, the Pats win seven. When your offensive line is injured and plays poorly on the road, you lose. Get healthy over the bye and finish strong.
I think it's great— Lewis' trash-talk and Vrabel's insinuation that they ran the pass to Mariota to stick it to the Pats. Please let there be a January rematch between these two teams in Foxboro.
Brady has had a habit of freezing out or "not seeing" open receivers when facing early pressure ever since Welker and Moss showed up. He has his favorites. He calls it "building trust" when in reality they're his safety valves. Whenever things get rough for him, he tends to put blinders on and only throw it to his designated faves. White. Edelman. Gronk when he's playing. I have to say the Gordon piece of it is a little perplexing, though I'll chalk it up to trying to accelerate the learning curve for the stretch run.
Hogan gets open as a third option. In fact he was wide open a couple of times yesterday. Cooks got wide open several times last year and didn't get a sniff. Dorsett has been open as the 3rd/4th option last year and this year as well and doesn't get a look.
Granted, Hogan and Dorsett are 3rd/4th options, but it was obvious starting with the first drive that Tennessee was keying on White and Ryan was draped over Edelman all day. Brady/McDaniels never properly adjusted.
The other factor is the DC. Pees has always been a pain to play against. Pettine. Rexy. Some of these guys know what gets Brady to act skittish and narrow his focus to White/Edelman/Gronk. If the other team has the talent to push up the middle and force Brady to his second/third read, Brady sees ghosts and only throws to his faves. Not that complicated a concept, but obviously hard to execute consistently.
Last edited:
I don't know; I kinda see what you're saying but I also think this is just how things work. If Brady identifies man-to-man coverage, he's going to ID the best / most favorable matchup pre-snap. If the other team is getting "early pressure," and he's got the matchup he likes, Brady's not going to go through 3/4 reads to see if Hogan got open for once.
EDIT: I'm not saying this is definitely what's happening - I'm just pointing out there's a fine line between "relying too much on his best guys" and "smartly identifying the best matchup and getting the ball out quick."
I think the answer is that trust has always been less important than whether a guy was good or not. Chad Johnson was washed up. Joey Galloway was washed up. Aaron Dobson stunk.
Cooks led the team in targets last year.
No argument re Cooks leading team in targets... my comment related to the fact that there were many occasions where Cooks broke wide open, yet Brady either didn't see him or was determined to throw somewhere else (Edelman/Amendola/Gronk) even though they were "covered". And I agree that 3rd/4th options are far, far less likely to be targeted anyway. However, Hogan and Dorsett have been open/available during games and Brady hasn't even looked their way.
I think the genesis of all this is the OL and Brady's current lack of comfort in the pocket. When he's "right", he's scanning the field and picking apart the best matchups. When he's "off", he's doing what we saw yesterday, which is locking in on his trusted guys and basically having blinders on with everyone else.
That’s pretty much any QB. When you give Blake Bortles or Nick Foles time, he’ll kill you. What’s separated Brady is that when pressure has been brought, he slices you apart. His numbers against the blitz, for example, are historically out of this world.
But if you can get pressure with 3-4 guys and you have good cover men (Butler and Ryan played well yesterday, which we know they have the ability to do), then even a Brady is likely to struggle. Do that and take away his best weapon (Gronk) and it gets even harder.
That’s why establishing a running game is often so big but they couldn’t do it and didn’t seem committed to it.
Just an overall bad performance against a D that is really good and played really well.
One of those games. It didn’t help that Ten fumbled three times and the Pats recovered exactly zero of them. Sometimes that’s just how it goes.
Not entirely in my opinion. Brady missed some reads yesterday even when he had time to throw, which was ultimately my point. We all know that pressure makes every QB mortal but I thought he was a little jittery at times. When he's not jittery, as you note, he generally handles pressure very well.
On the whole, I'm not going to sweat this game much other than the implications with the #2 seed. I do think the road woes are real, which is why that #2 seed is very important. The odds of another SB appearance go way up if the Pats are #2 vs. #3. Really need someone in the JAX/DEN/LAC group to beat PIT. JAX seems like a lost cause this year but maybe this game can be their second SB.
This game provided some powerful evidence against "Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan."
Just two years ago they went 14-2 and won the Super Bowl. That was an elite team. #3 in points scored, #1 in points allowed. Of the two games they lost, one was with Jacoby Brissett at QB for the (absurdly) suspended Tom Brady, and the other was a 31-24 loss at home to Seattle when they very nearly pulled that one out at the end.
That was the Patriots as an elite squad. This team isn't elite. When they were elite, they could play poorly and still win. They barely beat Arizona in the opener. They only scored 16 at Denver but won 16-3. They only beat the Jets 22-17 on the road. They gave up 457 yards to Miami at home and won by a touchdown.
But now, when they struggle, man, they can look B-A-D. The Jacksonville game...meh. That was a tough one against what we thought was a quality team, on the road, in what was their Super Bowl. But at Detroit and here at Tennessee, they've just looked awful, and as a result, they got their asses handed to them.
The margin for error is smaller, both for Tom Brady and the Patriots as a whole.
The reality is, despite all that, they still have a very legitimate shot at a 12-4 record. And historically, they play the Steelers tough on the road.
Home vs Road this year:
Home:
- 5-0
- 35.4 points scored
- 21.6 points allowed
- 26.8 first downs
- 441.8 yards gained
- 1.6 turnovers
- 19.6 first downs allowed
- 349.8 yards allowed
- 2.0 turnovers caused
Road:
- 2-3
- 20.6 points scored
- 25.6 points allowed
- 17.8 first downs
- 312.6 yards gained
- 1.0 turnovers
- 24.0 first downs allowed
- 413.0 yards allowed
- 1.4 turnovers caused
They are, simply put, a much different team on the road versus at home this year. Getting the bye and the #2 seed, and hoping KC gets knocked off, is probably the best and most likely path to another Super Bowl appearance.
That was the Patriots as an elite squad. This team isn't elite. When they were elite, they could play poorly and still win. They barely beat Arizona in the opener. They only scored 16 at Denver but won 16-3. They only beat the Jets 22-17 on the road. They gave up 457 yards to Miami at home and won by a touchdown.
But now, when they struggle, man, they can look B-A-D. The Jacksonville game...meh. That was a tough one against what we thought was a quality team, on the road, in what was their Super Bowl. But at Detroit and here at Tennessee, they've just looked awful, and as a result, they got their asses handed to them.
The margin for error is smaller, both for Tom Brady and the Patriots as a whole.
The reality is, despite all that, they still have a very legitimate shot at a 12-4 record. And historically, they play the Steelers tough on the road.
Home vs Road this year:
Home:
- 5-0
- 35.4 points scored
- 21.6 points allowed
- 26.8 first downs
- 441.8 yards gained
- 1.6 turnovers
- 19.6 first downs allowed
- 349.8 yards allowed
- 2.0 turnovers caused
Road:
- 2-3
- 20.6 points scored
- 25.6 points allowed
- 17.8 first downs
- 312.6 yards gained
- 1.0 turnovers
- 24.0 first downs allowed
- 413.0 yards allowed
- 1.4 turnovers caused
They are, simply put, a much different team on the road versus at home this year. Getting the bye and the #2 seed, and hoping KC gets knocked off, is probably the best and most likely path to another Super Bowl appearance.
I think Brady just fell victim to the belief of “I’m going to get hit.” It happens. When you’ve got guys in your face all game long you tend to have a quick trigger even when they’re not there...yet.
It was a crap performance by an o-line that was missing some key guys and had others playing sick. Like you, I’m not taking much away from the game. They didn’t show up for some reason, but they should get through it after the bye.
Backtracking here, but this sentence rubbed me the wrong way. The Patriots "ever since Welker and Moss showed up" are on the greatest sustained run of offensive success in NFL history. Whatever Brady has been doing since 2007, it's working as well as any offense in the history of the league.
Also, the data doesn't back up the idea that Brady always threw to the open guy and never had favorites. In 2001, Troy Brown had 142 targets, David Patten 92 ... and no one else even 40. By contrast there are already four Patriots with 40+ targets in 2018. Looking back at Brady's career, the number of targets are concentrated more in the years where the receiving weapons were top-heavy (like 2001 and 2009), and more spread out in the years where the weapons were more uniform (either good, like in 2014, or bad, like in 2006). In other words, pretty much exactly what you'd expect.
I'm sure this happens. There is a ton of information to process in a short period of time. Brady is going to make his best pre-snap assessment of the defense, the matchups, the routes, the blocking scheme and likelihood of extra men coming, etc. He has to process a lot of information post-snap to decide to what extent his pre-snap judgments were correct. Many times, the throw is going to come with anticipation, i.e., come out before the receiver's break and before Brady can see how much separation he got. And the Patriots run a lot of empty sets without extra blockers, where Brady has to plan to get the ball out quickly. I'm sure there are a lot of cases where the D shows something pre-snap and changes it after and confuses Brady, or the targeted receiver didn't get as much separation as another receiver who wasn't targeted, or he sees a window and the defender closes it quickly.
I guess I see your criticism here as sort of like saying, "sometimes when Mookie swings, he misses." It's true, and sometimes he may be in slumps that are real things, but the "issues" need to be evaluated in the context of trying to do something that is really hard.
To the point @Super Romario made above - the historic nature of the Pats' offense... Let's even forget 2007, and obviously eliminate 2008 as it was without Brady. Just from 2009-2018, here's what they've been averaging 29.7 points a game. During that stretch, the Pats' scoring offense has ranked 6, 1, 3, 1, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, and 7, for an average of 3.3.
When you think about the other great offenses in NFL history, who do you think of? Obviously times have changed so the points per game number might be different. But here are some contenders over a 10-year span:
NE, 2009-2018
- 29.7 points per game
- 3.3 avg scoring rank
Ind, 1999-2008
- 26.7 points per game
- 4.9 avg scoring rank
GB, 1995-2004
- 25.3 points per game
- 5.6 avg scoring rank
Buf, 1987-1996
- 22.6 points per game
- 9.3 avg scoring rank
SF, 1987-1996
- 26.8 points per game
- 2.7 avg scoring rank
So only the great 49ers have had a similar level of offensive dominance. And this, of course, is not including the Pats' great 2007 season (I did that because I don't want to count 2008 when they were without Brady, and it seemed weird to just skip that season). If you add 2007 and skip 2008 and take out 2018, the Pats' numbers are:
- 30.5 points per game
- 2.7 avg scoring rank
So yeah, whatever they've been doing has obviously been working at historically great levels. Even this year, with a beat up offensive line, missing their top RB for half the year, missing Edelman for four games, and missing Gronk for several games, they're averaging 28.0 points a game and rank 7th in the NFL, which isn't too bad all things considered.
When you think about the other great offenses in NFL history, who do you think of? Obviously times have changed so the points per game number might be different. But here are some contenders over a 10-year span:
NE, 2009-2018
- 29.7 points per game
- 3.3 avg scoring rank
Ind, 1999-2008
- 26.7 points per game
- 4.9 avg scoring rank
GB, 1995-2004
- 25.3 points per game
- 5.6 avg scoring rank
Buf, 1987-1996
- 22.6 points per game
- 9.3 avg scoring rank
SF, 1987-1996
- 26.8 points per game
- 2.7 avg scoring rank
So only the great 49ers have had a similar level of offensive dominance. And this, of course, is not including the Pats' great 2007 season (I did that because I don't want to count 2008 when they were without Brady, and it seemed weird to just skip that season). If you add 2007 and skip 2008 and take out 2018, the Pats' numbers are:
- 30.5 points per game
- 2.7 avg scoring rank
So yeah, whatever they've been doing has obviously been working at historically great levels. Even this year, with a beat up offensive line, missing their top RB for half the year, missing Edelman for four games, and missing Gronk for several games, they're averaging 28.0 points a game and rank 7th in the NFL, which isn't too bad all things considered.
Re Hogan, Brady locking on Edelman, etc. Will leave this here. I believe in Brady and you can find these from any game but it may not be Hogan’s fault he didn’t see a target.
Wish Patterson got a few more touches ... it seems to confuse the other team's defensive signal caller when he lines up in the backfield as opposed to Sony Michel where they can predict either a typical rush or play action pass. Anyway, nice to get the stinker behind them and they'll have two weeks to look at the tape.
I agree that some of this is tied to the OL – any QB is going to go to guys who he’s most on the same page with and look to other guys later in his progression if he feels like he doesn’t have a lot of time.
Also, there was a play earlier in the game where Hogan didn’t catch a (back shoulder?) ball on the far side and Brady was barking at him after it was over. My guess is that kind of stuff carries over during the course of a frustrating game.
I don't think that's all that true. In fact, Patterson in the backfield seems to telegraph run. Two weeks ago he lined up 13 times in the backfield and rushed 12 times. Maybe at the beginning of the game the D was a bit thrown off, but by the end they were keying on him and he wasn't getting any decent gains.
Great read here from Curran. Goes through every Brady drop-back. TL;DR: Brady wasn't great, but this was more about the line, with some receiver problems sprinkled in.
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/did-tom-brady-really-suck-patriots-titans-game-sunday-throw-throw-analysis
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/did-tom-brady-really-suck-patriots-titans-game-sunday-throw-throw-analysis
No quarterback looks good when his life is in danger all game. Ask Green Bay's #12 how he liked playing us recently. And he's mobile.
Sure, Brady rushed some throws and locked in on receivers, because his OL was blocking like they had money on the other team.
My goat is McD. Hate complaining about him, because he has a lot of capital banked here. But there just wasn't enough of a plan B for that pass rush. Also White for mightily shitty blitz pickup, even against corners and safeties. Terrible.
Sure, Brady rushed some throws and locked in on receivers, because his OL was blocking like they had money on the other team.
My goat is McD. Hate complaining about him, because he has a lot of capital banked here. But there just wasn't enough of a plan B for that pass rush. Also White for mightily shitty blitz pickup, even against corners and safeties. Terrible.
We seemed to be going out of our way to make excuses this year for Tom. We act like this is the first season there have been issues with injured players or problems with the line or poor play calling.
TB has always been able to succeed despite those problems. This year he has been unable to overcome those challenges on the road especially and many have been quick to call out anything other than poor play from TB.
This looks to be the year that everything has to be prefect in order for Tom to succeed.
TB has always been able to succeed despite those problems. This year he has been unable to overcome those challenges on the road especially and many have been quick to call out anything other than poor play from TB.
This looks to be the year that everything has to be prefect in order for Tom to succeed.
His QB rating on the road is still 87.7. And he has better TD/INT ratio on road.
In 2014 it was 90.4. In 2013 it was 82.3. In 2009 it was 81.7. In 2005 it was 83.6. So, this isn't the first time he's "struggled" on the road.
In 2006 it was 77.4 AT HOME.
In 2014 it was 90.4. In 2013 it was 82.3. In 2009 it was 81.7. In 2005 it was 83.6. So, this isn't the first time he's "struggled" on the road.
In 2006 it was 77.4 AT HOME.
Um - I guess? Look no further than 2013 and how he looked with limited weapons - lower completion %, lower YPA, worse TD:INT ratio. Or even their title season in 2014, he wasn't particularly awesome. They are coming off a 6 game winning streak during which they put up 35.5 PPG. I wouldn't exactly say everything had to be perfect for him to succeed.
