The Goat Thread: Week 14 at Miami

[Ralphwiggum]

Yeah what we saw last night was that the defense is not good enough to win a game against a mediocre team when the offense doesn't do it's normal thing.

It also shows that the defense only looks as good as it does in certain areas (points per game for instance) because the offense never turns the ball over, they get great special teams play so the opponents are almost always facing a long field, and the offense puts up a lot of points which makes opposing offenses one dimensional.

Edit: or what tims4wins said

 

[edmunddantes]

I still can’t figure out how Howard wasn’t down by contact on the second interception.


Also the refs all night were horrible at marking the ball especially after penalties. It was bizarre how often they had to conference up to figure where to put the ball.

 

[Super Nomario]

It’s similar to those 2011-2013 defenses. We only expect / need the D to play adequately if the offense performs. When the offense doesn’t perform, the defensive performance usually isn’t good enough.

Side note: the 2010 team was really in this boat, too. They were 8th in points but 25th in yards; on a per-drive basis they were 16th in points and 30th in yards. But the O never turned the ball over and scored 500 points and the D generated turnovers like crazy ... until the playoff game against the Jets when the O turned the ball over, the D didn't, and they lost to a team they'd pasted 45-3 a few weeks earlier.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The defensive line seems to be susceptible to surges from run blocking and it has felt that way for several weeks. The offense, though, has been starting fast and making opposing offenses one dimensional. But Miami was generally able to mix things up and keep it to second or third and manageable all night. The run defense has, to they eye test, looked average at best going back several week. But the offense has made it a non-issue.

I just don't see any way this team will contain the best running back in the league next week. What is this defense going to do with a team that is just as comfortable to run as pass on third and five? Just have to hope Gronk is a key that opens up the rest of the offense.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

Most defenses can only survive so long when the offense cannot convert a single 3rd down or has multiple 3 and outs. That is a truth for all NFL teams, not just the Pats defense.

The last 2 punts were definitely questionable. Even if you do not convert, you can still hold Miami to a 3 and out a force a FG and keep it 2 scores. You are depending on the defense getting a 3 and out when you punt. Might as well try to convert the 1st down in those situations.

 

[Saints Rest]

290
That was how long the team had gone without being behind.
Being behind is bad. It’s bad for the offense; it’s bad for the defense.
The first 20+ minutes of the game were UGLY and yet the Pats were up 7-6.
But once Miami scores their first TD; it reverted to bad

 

[Oppo]

I'll take the positive angle:

No major injuries

Get the total stinker game out of the way now so BB can ride their asses going into the playoffs.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

I thought DMC tackled well and made some plays.

Other than him and Burkhead the entire team seemed bad.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

No major injuries

Do we know the status of Chung? That would be a major injury in my book. They can't afford an injury to the only healthy defensive unit out there.

 

[Boston Brawler]

I think Gronk is a huge goat here, his presence would have changed everything for the offense.

 

[DJnVa]

We have winner for “2017 Inexplicable Game of the Year”.

Question—I had to follow part online—that last 4th down, my app had it as 4th and 1. Upthread said it was 4th and 11. Which was it? Because I cannot imagine BB punting on 4th and 1.

 

[Ale Xander]

BRADY

 

[tims4wins]

We have winner for “2017 Inexplicable Game of the Year”.

Question—I had to follow part online—that last 4th down, my app had it as 4th and 1. Upthread said it was 4th and 11. Which was it? Because I cannot imagine BB punting on 4th and 1.

11. It was 3rd and 20, Brady completed one to Dola for 9 yards, 4th and 11

 

[Boston Brawler]

We have winner for “2017 Inexplicable Game of the Year”.

Question—I had to follow part online—that last 4th down, my app had it as 4th and 1. Upthread said it was 4th and 11. Which was it? Because I cannot imagine BB punting on 4th and 1.

It was 4th and 11. Thuney got called for holding on first down. Then two incomplete passes (bombs to Cooks and Hogan), then a complete 9 yard pass to Amendola.

 

[DJnVa]

Thanks. I’m a little less ripshit now.

Left themselves little margin for error next week. Should be fun.

 

[bankshot1]

As I was watching and saw Miami totally neutralize Cooks and take him out of the game, Hogan was mostly a decoy he's probably still hurt) and Brady looked way off, I wondered why more of a running game was never utilized and use the Dolphins D-line aggressiveness against them. Or maybe the O-line was useless no matter what.

Brady looked broken and sort of helpless. I think he's hurt more than we know.

 

[heavyde050]

As I was watching and saw Miami totally neutralize Cooks and take him out of the game, Hogan was mostly a decoy he's probably still hurt) and Brady looked way off, I wondered why more of a running game was never utilized and use the Dolphins D-line aggressiveness against them. Or maybe the O-line was useless no matter what.

Brady looked broken and sort of helpless. I think he's hurt more than we know.

What is tough about the league with its inconsistent officiating is that another crew may have called Howard for about 4 penalties last night.
Howard played great, but he was super physical and got away with several moves I have seen flagged in other games.
I have no idea how receivers or DBs play like that. I guess they just stay consistent and let the refs do what they want.

 

[mulluysavage]

Re: no injuries + vulnerable to the run, Branch went out with a knee injury in the first half, tried to play again, and then went out for the rest of the game.

 

[j44thor]

I have no idea why Brady/Josh kept bringing the RBs in to protect instead of keeping them out wide and trying to take advantage of RB on LB mismatches like MIA did to NE all game long. Once White/Burkhead were motioned into the backfield MIA would just blitz the LB covering them leaving an injured Hogan, ineffective Cooks and Allen as the primary receivers. Bad game planning on both sides of the ball is probably the biggest GOAT this week.

 

[nolasoxfan]

Brady didn’t look sick just now in the presser but he did look very low energy. Very low energy.

Make Tommy great again and squeeze out a victory in Pennsylvania.

Suffering from influenza low energy or Jeb Bush low energy?

It was already mentioned up thread, but the 3rd down, James White jet sweep had me scratching my head, as well. The play calling seemed far too predictable.

 

[simplyeric]

I come in peace. I just wanted to speak on the onside kick for a quick second.

I agree that the intent and design of the play is logical, however that seems like a one-time ever kind of play. Like the entire premise is showing the hands team something they likely have never seen before, create uncertainty, and hope for a panicked muff with about 8 dudes ready to pounce on the ball.

Now the entire world saw that play and it pretty much has to get thrown in the shredder, right?

I've seen versions of that play before...the ball is supposed to stay right next to the kicker, so that the second it hits 10 yards the kicker can try to get it. Can't recall where I've seen it, but I have seen it.

 

[shawnrbu]

Gost successfully did the onside kick up the middle against Cleveland in 13, but I do not recall so many teammates being next to him on each side for that kick. The kick last night didn't have the element of surprise of where it was going.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

They tried a similar onside kick in the dreadful '10 playoff game against the Jets, with Shayne Graham as the kicker as Ghost was hurt. He also touched it before it went 10 yards IIRC.

So I'm the only one who thought the first INT should have been PI on Howard because he pushed Cooks out of the way? I'm fine being insane, but I wanted to check first.

 

[heavyde050]

They tried a similar onside kick in the dreadful '10 playoff game against the Jets, with Shayne Graham as the kicker as Ghost was hurt. He also touched it before it went 10 yards IIRC.

So I'm the only one who thought the first INT should have been PI on Howard because he pushed Cooks out of the way? I'm fine being insane, but I wanted to check first.

I am okay with the no call, but I have seen that type of play flagged many times. Usually against the Pats.

Edit - not only against the Pats though. I have no idea what actually is DPI (or OPI) anymore. I do know that I almost expect a flag on every incompletion if the defender is within a foot of the receiver.

 

[bakahump]

By the eyeball test Brady certainly does have a "Type" when he has a bad game.

You can tell in the first few plays. Low throws. Out of Sync. Moving in the pocket on the first snap or 2.

Now all thats not to say that he hasnt had games were he went 3 and out and then lit it up (he has). Also its not to say that he hasnt missed low for portions of the game and then corrected (he has). Finally its not to say that Pass Rush isnt effecting him during his bad games (it is). Whats strange though is that he has faced big time pressure and still made accurate passes and good throws many times. So i dont think its as simple as "Pressure messes up Brady" Certainly not 5 snaps into the game. And finally finally these games are rare and far between so c'est le vie.

When he does have a bad game you can usually tell VERY early that it will be a long night. Maybe it sickness. Maybe its a nagging injury. Whatever it is the Bad Games can be almost always be guessed very early.

 

[Bleedred]

I think Gronk is a huge goat here, his presence would have changed everything for the offense.

This. Amendola is serviceable and clutch, but doesn't create a lot of space for himself. Ditto Hogan. Cooks has blazing speed and is a good route runner, but they typically frame him each play with a high safety and he doesn't go over the middle all that willingly. This offense can withstand losing one of Edelman and Gronk, but not both. These guys demand the attention that allows the other WRs to get open, and when both are down, our WRs are very average. If Brady is hurt (I too am worried about his achilles), then the season is fucked anyway.

 

[bakahump]

Yeah what we saw last night was that the defense is not good enough to win a game against a mediocre team when the offense doesn't do it's normal thing.

Ralph I think this is harsh. 2 Turnovers hurt the effort. Also 7 Punts and 0 for 11 on 3rd downs puts the D in a tough spot. This offense didnt need to "do its normal thing" it just needed to be marginally proficient, not even league average, just a heartbeat. The offense basically played half a game (2nd and 4th) while it took half a game off (1st and 3rd almost COMPLETELY off). Thats a tough ask for a defense. They make ONE drive for points during those quarters and different game.

Amazing they "only gave up" 27. If we turn that 7 into a (another) 3 (by making a freaking sack) inside the redzone its also a different game. That wasnt the Ds fault (good call....) but rather 1 player not executing.

 

[eddiew112]

The defensive line seems to be susceptible to surges from run blocking and it has felt that way for several weeks. The offense, though, has been starting fast and making opposing offenses one dimensional. But Miami was generally able to mix things up and keep it to second or third and manageable all night. The run defense has, to they eye test, looked average at best going back several week. But the offense has made it a non-issue.

I just don't see any way this team will contain the best running back in the league next week. What is this defense going to do with a team that is just as comfortable to run as pass on third and five? Just have to hope Gronk is a key that opens up the rest of the offense.

Outside of the early Drake run when Roberts shot the gap and missed, I actually thought the interior run defense was good this game. Lee also did a noticeably better job at setting the edge.

Goats were Butler, Richards, Thuney, Brady, and Cooks.

 

[drbretto]

I don't know nearly as much as the rest of you, but I'm also going with Gronk here. His absence let them neutralize Cooks and completely changed the game. It was a real dumb thing he did, and it may have cost his team a game.

 

[stp]

Do we know the status of Chung? That would be a major injury in my book. They can't afford an injury to the only healthy defensive unit out there.

I'm pretty sure I saw him back on the field when Miami was kneeling for the last few plays.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

I’m a dolphins fan but I don’t get the angst here. That game meant NOTHING to New England. Nothing. L just play and don’t get hurt. If you beat Pitt you are guaranteed into SB. If you lose and have to go to pitt in AFC title game then maybe Pitt has 25 percent chance. But don’t underestimate how bad Steelers are.

Miami pressed the NE receivers most of the game and quite frankly they showed why Gronk is the only guy who matters. They rushed four primarily. This is exact framework that has beaten Pats in the past. Except no one does it. If you want to worry, worry that none of the passcatchers are more than JAGs. Dolphins are down 2-3 CBs for reference.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I’m a dolphins fan but I don’t get the angst here. That game meant NOTHING to New England. Nothing. L just play and don’t get hurt. If you beat Pitt you are guaranteed into SB. If you lose and have to go to pitt in AFC title game then maybe Pitt has 25 percent chance. But don’t underestimate how bad Steelers are.

If they lose next week, they are in line for the 3 seed, so the game definitely meant something.

 

[sodenj5]

I’m a dolphins fan but I don’t get the angst here. That game meant NOTHING to New England. Nothing. L just play and don’t get hurt. If you beat Pitt you are guaranteed into SB. If you lose and have to go to pitt in AFC title game then maybe Pitt has 25 percent chance. But don’t underestimate how bad Steelers are.

Miami pressed the NE receivers most of the game and quite frankly they showed why Gronk is the only guy who matters. They rushed four primarily. This is exact framework that has beaten Pats in the past. Except no one does it. If you want to worry, worry that none of the passcatchers are more than JAGs. Dolphins are down 2-3 CBs for reference.

This is a good assessment. Miami won because their DBs won consistently at the line of scrimmage, jamming receivers and disrupting routes and timing. The few times they were beaten, Brady took shots deep but missed, especially the two long balls that were underthrown to Cooks resultzing in the Howard INTs. If they connect on one or two of those, Miami probably plays more zone or off man to prevent the big play. Brady never made them pay for playing press man all game long.

Miami also kept bringing blitzes. Just relentlessly bringing pressure. Brady never got comfortable. Never got into a rhythm.

Miami plays that game differently if Gronk is in there. They don’t have a guy to man up on Gronk. They can have Lawrence Timmons or Kiko Alonso on Allen without too much worry.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I’m a dolphins fan but I don’t get the angst here. That game meant NOTHING to New England. Nothing. L just play and don’t get hurt. If you beat Pitt you are guaranteed into SB. If you lose and have to go to pitt in AFC title game then maybe Pitt has 25 percent chance. But don’t underestimate how bad Steelers are.

Miami pressed the NE receivers most of the game and quite frankly they showed why Gronk is the only guy who matters. They rushed four primarily. This is exact framework that has beaten Pats in the past. Except no one does it. If you want to worry, worry that none of the passcatchers are more than JAGs. Dolphins are down 2-3 CBs for reference.

If they lose next week, they are in line for the 3 seed, so the game definitely meant something.

Yeah, I've been seeing this all over the board in the last couple of weeks. It seems that nobody understands that the Jags are out there. Everyone has been viewing the AFC as a two-horse race, and so the entire focus has been on Pittsburgh. But, the reality is that the Jags have one moderately difficult game left and if both the Patriots and Jags end up with four losses, the Jags get the tie breaker.

The difference between hosting a division game on the one hand, and having to beat the Chargers and then on the road in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, on the other, is very very different. The Patriots needed to win last night to control their own destiny for the bye. Now, the Pittsburgh game is pretty close to a must win if the Patriots are to have the bye.

The fact that nobody on this board seems to ever think about the Jags doesn't mean the Jags aren't actually in a pretty good spot right now.

 

[Toe Nash]

Credit to Miami honestly, they played great everywhere. Brady didn't play well but he had no space to throw as receivers were blanketed all night. Cutler was great.

I think Hogan is not a JAG and Cooks definitely isn't, but Hogan's not near 100%.

I know they're down multiple LBs and he was put in a tough spot but I think Elandon Roberts basically sucks. Given how the secondary can tackle I'd have rather played 6 DBs all game. I think you'd have better talent on the field generally if you went with Harmon / Mccourty / Chung and the 3 CBs.

Anyway if you had to lose a game, this would be the one. On to Pittsburgh.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah, I've been seeing this all over the board in the last couple of weeks. It seems that nobody understands that the Jags are out there. Everyone has been viewing the AFC as a two-horse race, and so the entire focus has been on Pittsburgh. But, the reality is that the Jags have one moderately difficult game left and if both the Patriots and Jags end up with four losses, the Jags get the tie breaker.

The difference between hosting a division game on the one hand, and having to beat the Chargers and then on the road in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, on the other, is very very different. The Patriots needed to win last night to control their own destiny for the bye. Now, the Pittsburgh game is pretty close to a must win if the Patriots are to have the bye.

The fact that nobody on this board seems to ever think about the Jags doesn't mean the Jags aren't actually in a pretty good spot right now.

Right, coming into this week with the Pats getting Miami and Jacksonville playing Seattle it was entirely conceivable the Pats would have 11 wins and the Jags would have 5 losses, therefore virtually guaranteeing a bye. Obviously the reverse happened so now the Pats will have to win at least 2 of their last 3 for a bye.

 

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

Let me endorse the view of the Cleaver. I wasn't exactly rooting for a loss, but it has been months since this team got punched in the mouth, and I'm glad to go into Pittsburgh humbled. The '07 team was a joy to watch, but there's a lot of us who think dropping a game or two might have been for the best that year. Now BB can go into practice and remind the team that they have to work for each victory.

The Steelers have to deal with a Pats team that knows it needs to focus and execute. Brady will get right against that Tomlin zone defense.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Right, coming into this week with the Pats getting Miami and Jacksonville playing Seattle it was entirely conceivable the Pats would have 11 wins and the Jags would have 5 losses, therefore virtually guaranteeing a bye. Obviously the reverse happened so now the Pats will have to win at least 2 of their last 3 for a bye.

If Pats don’t get it done this week, I feel we’ll all be massive Titans fans in Week 17. Houston is a lost cause. SF with Jimmy at least gives us a sliver of hope. But Titans on the road with their playoff chances hanging in the balance is our best chance.

Sunday’s game will have a playoff feel to it. Going to be nuts.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Let me endorse the view of the Cleaver. I wasn't exactly rooting for a loss, but it has been months since this team got punched in the mouth, and I'm glad to go into Pittsburgh humbled. The '07 team was a joy to watch, but there's a lot of us who think dropping a game or two might have been for the best that year. Now BB can go into practice and remind the team that they have to work for each victory.

The Steelers have to deal with a Pats team that knows it needs to focus and execute. Brady will get right against that Tomlin zone defense.

One flip side of that is that it's a copycat league and Pittsburgh and the other Pats opponents are sure to try to replicate some of what Miami did last night.

I agree that getting humbled can be good. On the other hand, I think it can be advantageous to be on a roll and playing with an air of dominance when the tourney starts. If the Pats run the table and thereby get the first seed, then they will have both things when the playoffs start. Right now they do not and if I'm the Steelers, I'm somewhat more confident about this next game than I was at 8:25 PM last night.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

One flip side of that is that it's a copycat league and Pittsburgh and the other Pats opponents are sure to try to replicate some of what Miami did last night.

I agree that getting humbled can be good. On the other hand, I think it can be advantageous to be on a roll and playing with an air of dominance when the tourney starts. If the Pats run the table and thereby get the first seed, then they will have both things when the playoffs start. Right now they do not and if I'm the Steelers, I'm somewhat more confident about this next game than I was at 8:25 PM last night.

I don’t think Pittsburgh plays much press. They will blitz a lot. And again, it’s a lot easier to play the Pats that way when gronk is not playing. It’s also how Atlanta played them in super bowl before they lost a CB. Gronk can beat his guy (safety or LB) at the line and often was doubled. Edelman could too. Without those guys Miami played man press much of the game allowing more blitzing. And, as people said earlier, Brady couldn’t make them pay down the field. Except that ludicrous pass to Lewis on the wheel route. Cooks was rarely open.

I forget Jacksonville exists because I don’t think they can possibly win a meaningful road game. Maybe, as some mentioned, they won’t have to.

 

[Curtis Pride]

How good is the Dolphins' D against the run? The Patriots didn't run the ball that much, and when they did, they didn't gain many yards. I think that made the O too one-dimensional and enabled Miami to bring in more pressure than usual. Or maybe with Gronk they would be better at running the ball.

 

[ShaneTrot]

They were not sharp lost the TO battle, went 0-google on third down, had tons of penalties and lost by 7. Even when they suck, they make it close.

 

[simplyeric]

One flip side of that is that it's a copycat league and Pittsburgh and the other Pats opponents are sure to try to replicate some of what Miami did last night.

I agree that getting humbled can be good. On the other hand, I think it can be advantageous to be on a roll and playing with an air of dominance when the tourney starts. If the Pats run the table and thereby get the first seed, then they will have both things when the playoffs start. Right now they do not and if I'm the Steelers, I'm somewhat more confident about this next game than I was at 8:25 PM last night.

Even without Gronk, and Brady playing like a sack of turd, they were within shooting distance of a win.

For argument's sake, on a level of 1 to "Tom Brady 2nd half Superbowl LI", what do we think Brady played? A 3, at best?

Honestly, I think if Brady played at 5-6 (below his normal game, but not his best games) we would have been trying to score for a tie or win with our last possession (prior to the on-side kick).

Alternately, if you took Brady as a 3 last night, and add Gronk, it wouldn't have been so dire.

So yeah, copycat league: Right now the Steelers are running their "give Brady the flu, and get Gronk on the bench with a technicality" plays in practice, and they're feeling confident...

 

[tims4wins]

Copycat league like how the Steelers tried to copy the Texans rushing their edge rushers up the middle in the playoffs? You can only copy so much based on your scheme and personnel

 

[BaseballJones]

They were not sharp lost the TO battle, went 0-google on third down, had tons of penalties and lost by 7. Even when they suck, they make it close.

This.

Miami played basically their best game of the year, and the Pats their second-worst, and it was on the road in a traditionally tough place to play (for NE anyway), and at the end, it was a one-score game.

 

[dcmissle]

A place where Brady is now 2 games below .500 for his career. Why? I have no earthly idea.

 

[Captaincoop]

I cannot understand the troubles in Miami.

Last night, the place was half full of Pats fans, the weather was perfect, etc.

It was barely even a road game. I can't figure out what the issue is.

 

[luckiestman]

I cannot understand the troubles in Miami.

Last night, the place was half full of Pats fans, the weather was perfect, etc.

It was barely even a road game. I can't figure out what the issue is.

Players Champaigning and Campaigning is SoBe

 

[loshjott]

They were not sharp lost the TO battle, went 0-google on third down, had tons of penalties and lost by 7. Even when they suck, they make it close.

0-googol on third down.

 

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

Copycat league like how the Steelers tried to copy the Texans rushing their edge rushers up the middle in the playoffs? You can only copy so much based on your scheme and personnel

I don't think the Steelers can change their defense. They play that soft zone and hope for pressure. When the pressure comes, the zone is fine. But if the blocking holds, Brady eats that zone for lunch. That's been pretty much the ways it has been for Brady's entire career. He's 10-2 vs. the Steelers (including three wins in the playoffs). The losses are the 2011 game, when the Steelers got through for three sacks, and way back in 2004, when Brady got sacked three times, threw two picks, and had Joey Porter in his face all day.

It is hard to tell -- do the Steelers not invest in cover cornerbacks because Pittsburgh is wedded to the zone? Or do they stick with the zone because they don't have any cover cornerbacks?