The Goat Thread: Week 2 at Jacksonville

RedOctober3829

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What I was referring to is the fact that they need to get more athletic and faster in the front 7, and have needed to do so for years and he has ignored that area early in the draft.
In the past few years, they’ve drafted Trey Flowers, Deatrich Wise, and Derek Rivers in 3rd and 4th round to try to address the pass rush. They’ve drafted Bentley and Christian Sam to address the LBers.

In the past couple years, they’ve traded early draft choices for veteran players at need areas too.
 

DJnVa

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Bill for putting together a roster that, Brady and Gronk aside, looked like it didn't belong in the same league as the Jaguars'. But they'll end the season ranked 7th in points allowed and everyone will talk about how they're actually good and points are all that matters, until they faced a well coached team in the playoffs..
LOL. When oh when, will BB prove his worth in the postseason?

You guys act like this every single season when the Patriots lose a game. Every loss is a harbinger of doom. Every single one. Patriots look shitty in games every single season. Every one.

Don't be Trent Dilfer. It's not a good look.
 

Silverdude2167

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A young cocky team came out and played like this was their Superbowl while the Pats were like you know this is week two right?

This happens every year, let's see where everything stands by week 8 and then I will see if it's time to panic or not.
 

DJnVa

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So, now that we've lost a Jags-Pats match up, we can talk smack right? That's how it works.
 

Rough Carrigan

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A couple years ago, in extreme heat, the Pats played a shitty game in Miami and lost. Maybe some of what went wrong today was that a team that lives and plays in extreme heat got an all around advantage from it over a team that mostly lives and plays in a much colder climate.
 

lexrageorge

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Not directed at you BBJ but we hear this all the time about where the team picks. Doesn't that mean it's even more important to hit on early picks in the area of need? Fans have been clamoring for years for the team to get more athletic and faster on D, and he doesn't do it and it shows at the worst times. You know how many front 7 players he's drafted in the first two rounds over the last 6 years, as the league has been trending to a faster D? 3, Jamie Collins (traded), Dominique Easley (bust), and Malcolm Brown (serviceable). That is a major problem, Bill the GM isn't as good as he or the pundits think he is.
It's the same GM that built a team that qualified for the playoffs 16 out of 18 seasons in the salary cap era, to go along with 12 appearances in the AFCCG. If there is a better GM, we would love to hear about him.

Not saying BB doesn't deserve criticism for the construction of this year's team. His drafts have been barren recently, as noted. But the picks all looked great at the time, and injuries are random events that are unpredictable.
 

Garshaparra

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He certainly didn't put the Pats in the hole (that would be the LB corps, letting JAX run and slot all over them), but whoever decided Corderelle Patterson would be an effective gimmick WR (end-arounds, bubble screens, jet sweeps) is being proven wrong week in and out. He was put in two key high leverage situation (3rd down, deep in JAX territory, key scoring drives), and blew it both times:

* 3rd & 10 at JAX 11 - (2:56 - 2nd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to C.Patterson.

* 3rd & 4 at JAX 26 - (14:54 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to C.Patterson to JAX 28 for -2 yards (D.Hayden).

He stumbles in open space and generally looks out of sorts - like a WR trying to play RB, which he is. I don't blame him at all, really. He's built like a possession receiver, but doesn't have great hands. He's concentrating to look the ball in, but seems to forget how to advance, and it all goes to hell.

The hubris of the Pats to think they could "coach em up" into something he's not (Tyreek Hill, I guess) isn't Belichick's biggest GM mistake, but it's just a waste of time.
 

eustis22

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seems last year we were complaining about wide open guys too at this time of the season
 

speedracer

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The hubris of the Pats to think they could "coach em up" into something he's not (Tyreek Hill, I guess) isn't Belichick's biggest GM mistake, but it's just a waste of time.
With kickoff returns being devalued by the new rules, I'm not even sure Patterson is worth a roster spot.
 

BigSoxFan

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With kickoff returns being devalued by the new rules, I'm not even sure Patterson is worth a roster spot.
I’m about ready to give those duties to Coleman and cut Patterson once Edelman comes back. I was hoping for Stallworth 2.0. Right now, early returns are not looking good. Good thing is that Edelman’s return will solve that problem and we can just go with Edelman/Hogan/Dorsett/Gronk/White or Michel sets.
 

Super Nomario

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A couple years ago, in extreme heat, the Pats played a shitty game in Miami and lost. Maybe some of what went wrong today was that a team that lives and plays in extreme heat got an all around advantage from it over a team that mostly lives and plays in a much colder climate.
In that game, the Pats built a 20-10 halftime lead before wilting in the second half. Today, they got punched in the mouth from jump. Heat and exhaustion might have been a factor on say, the keystone cops 61-yard catch-and-run TD to ice it, but I have a hard time believing it was a big element in the Jags marching down the field with ease on three of their first four drives.

seems last year we were complaining about wide open guys too at this time of the season
And then the D looked good for a while ... until they played a good offensive coach again.
 

Pandemonium67

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BB is playing the long con. When we meet the Jags again in January in Jacksonville, they'll be all cocky and overconfident, and it will be a different Pats team that takes the field.
 

heavyde050

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Wasn’t the first Pats drive kind of stalled by an obvious missed DPI on Gronk and a late (body weight) hit on Brady?
Hypothetically, if the refs don’t blow that - the Pats may never fall behind by multiple scores.
Don’t even want to mention the fumble that bounced right back to the Jags.
Some days just don’t go the Pats’ way and this was one of them.
The defense was bad and some of the coaching decisions were curious.
Hopefully they play much better against the Lions.

Edit - I was watching online as I was at another game. So my first two points are actually questions.
 

DeadlySplitter

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overall I'm concerned. not panicking, but concerned.

never want to overreact to one game. Jacksonville got every break (Ghost nearly shanking the FG, instant fumble recovery on first drive) early.

that said, the defense seems devoid of talent. If Hightower is now well past his prime, that's a huge blow. Devin McCourty maybe is being asked of too much, but I hear his name called for negative reasons more than positive lately. sheer coaching alone will get it done against the plenty of weak teams in the NFL, but not against the elite teams, as we discovered first-hand last year.

Bill loves coaching anyone up. but there's a limit to how far that can go. I'd seriously concern going all-in and trading a lot of draft capital for the best linebacker / cornerback on the trade market this year.

I think a first round bye should no longer be taken for granted. the AFC "tomato can" East division should still be free, but a 3/4 seed would not shock me anymore.
 

dcmissle

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Somebody above put it well. There are enough weak sisters on this schedule for them to post respectable defensive metrics by season’s end. Don’t be fooled. I’ll have my eye on four games — Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, Steelers. If someone want to add the Titans, fine.
 

BigSoxFan

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Somebody above put it well. There are enough weak sisters on this schedule for them to post respectable defensive metrics by season’s end. Don’t be fooled. I’ll have my eye on four games — Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, Steelers. If someone want to add the Titans, fine.
I’m pretty confident we can keep Mahomes and the Chiefs under 80. I think the Bears game could easily be a repeat of today where we make Trubisky look good and their defense makes life a living hell for our offense.
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
Since 2008 the Pats win about 3 of 4 games in the first four. Pretty good, but for them it seems like a travesty. 97 degrees in week 2 in Florida hardly tells us much about what will be happening in January. Hell, half of us won't remember that Jacksonville was on the schedule by that point. DCmissle gets it right -- look out for those big four games.
 

Jimbodandy

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LOL. When oh when, will BB prove his worth in the postseason?

You guys act like this every single season when the Patriots lose a game. Every loss is a harbinger of doom. Every single one. Patriots look shitty in games every single season. Every one.

Don't be Trent Dilfer. It's not a good look.
Agree with this.

I will say that I'm disappointed a bit in Bill the GM, after watching some of the same problems on defense repeat themselves. So him.
 

Captaincoop

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Why was this not one of the "big four" games? This was the AFC runner up last year and a lot of people are picking them to be in that spot again.

I'm not hitting the panic button, but that was not a good performance today. And it wasn't a throwaway game, it was a game that gives one of the other AFC contenders the tiebreaker over the Pats.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Somebody above put it well. There are enough weak sisters on this schedule for them to post respectable defensive metrics by season’s end. Don’t be fooled. I’ll have my eye on four games — Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, Steelers. If someone want to add the Titans, fine.
Good thing you know better than everyone else.
 

dcmissle

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Why was this not one of the "big four" games? This was the AFC runner up last year and a lot of people are picking them to be in that spot again.

I'm not hitting the panic button, but that was not a good performance today. And it wasn't a throwaway game, it was a game that gives one of the other AFC contenders the tiebreaker over the Pats.
It was.

But we’re in a look forward mode, and excuses aplenty were offered for today — hot as hell, BB had a bad day, there’s always one stinker, and so forth.

The main point is that when statistical improvement comes, and it probably will, the opposition matters — don’t fall for the okey doke.
 

The Mort Report

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I mentioned this in the game thread and I’ll say it again, my only worry about this loss compared to others was this didn’t feel like an “ok there were a few coaching mistakes but that was mostly on the players.” It felt like the team was out coached both on O and D. Special teams felt like just one of those games, but the play calling on O seemed forced at times and the D never seemed to adjust. Those are my worries from this game. And people in the game thread point to the SB as bad coaching but that also had a lot of huge singular player errors. That wasn’t the case with this game to me mostly
 

Super Nomario

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Bill loves coaching anyone up. but there's a limit to how far that can go. I'd seriously concern going all-in and trading a lot of draft capital for the best linebacker / cornerback on the trade market this year.
Does this D strike you as one player away?

I think if I could add one player, it would be a pass-rushing interior DL. Bortles had clean pockets all day. The coverage is going to look a lot better if they can get anything resembling pressure. But I think there are multiple issues here.
 

54thMA

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How many times is this defense going to get torched by a rinky dink in cut/slant/crossing route, the backbreaking TD yesterday was essentially a 3 yard pass that turned into a TD, it was the same sort of pass the Steelers connected on in Pittsburg last year and ran it down inside the 10.

Bortles had all day to throw yesterday, very little pressure and when they did pressure him, he hurried his throws.

Whoever the special teams player was (#36?) who didn't reach across and touch the Jaguars defender who jumped offsides is one of my goats, that's situational football, something this team has thrived on for years.
 

BigSoxFan

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How many times is this defense going to get torched by a rinky dink in cut/slant/crossing route, the backbreaking TD yesterday was essentially a 3 yard pass that turned into a TD, it was the same sort of pass the Steelers connected on in Pittsburg last year and ran it down inside the 10.

Bortles had all day to throw yesterday, very little pressure and when they did pressure him, he hurried his throws.

Whoever the special teams player was (#36?) who didn't reach across and touch the Jaguars defender who jumped offsides is one of my goats, that's situational football, something this team has thrived on for years.
There is no hope on the horizon with this defense. The personnel is average and slow. Teams have figured out how to attack the Pats. Some won’t be able to execute it effectively but others with solid lines and QBs will. Everything rests with the offense, as always.
 

sodenj5

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D-Line is the obvious goat.

Honorable mention for McD for failing to draw up schemes to get the ball in Gronk’s hands.
Jacksonville was doing some interesting stuff in Cover 1 I haven’t seen before. They had the safety come down to play a robber/double Gronk and Jack would drop back and play the single high safety.

This neutralized Gronk to a degree because Jacksonville could stay in their base defense, yet he didn’t get looks matched up 1 on 1 vs a linebacker. That took away a lot of the success NE had out of the I formation last week.
 

Number45forever

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I have zero concern whatsoever. September has become a time for figuring shit out. The Pats have shown almost without exception for 17 years now that they improve as the season goes on. Remain calm, the Jags are really fucking good and it was really fucking hot yesterday. It's going to be all right.
 

BaseballJones

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I have zero concern whatsoever. September has become a time for figuring shit out. The Pats have shown almost without exception for 17 years now that they improve as the season goes on. Remain calm, the Jags are really fucking good and it was really fucking hot yesterday. It's going to be all right.
I tend to agree with you (and said as much yesterday). The problem is that some of the issues have nothing to do with Jacksonville, the heat, or it being early in the year. For example, Hightower and Van Noy and the lack of speed at LB. Van Noy simply isn't fast and Hightower is impossibly slow now. They can't improve their speed at this point with those two guys. So something needs to happen personnel-wise or scheme-wise. They could go younger with Sam and Grigsby and Bentley but then they're gonna experience massive growing pains due to their lack of experience. Or they could try to make a trade. But Van Noy and Hightower simply aren't going to get any faster or better in coverage. And that's a HUGE problem that won't be fixed by cooler temperatures or the calendar switching to November.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Disappointing on field play for sure, but if there's a bigger disadvantage on sports than having to go on the road in 100 degree heat I can't think of it.

Sadly, though, if the pass rush from game 1 wasn't legit then scrubs like Rowe and Jones are going to get lit up all year. Chung looks cooked. Team speed seems to be a problem and the team hasn't seemed to have adjusted their draft philosophy and continue drafting for physicality as if it were 2005 .
 

Number45forever

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I tend to agree with you (and said as much yesterday). The problem is that some of the issues have nothing to do with Jacksonville, the heat, or it being early in the year. For example, Hightower and Van Noy and the lack of speed at LB. Van Noy simply isn't fast and Hightower is impossibly slow now. They can't improve their speed at this point with those two guys. So something needs to happen personnel-wise or scheme-wise. They could go younger with Sam and Grigsby and Bentley but then they're gonna experience massive growing pains due to their lack of experience. Or they could try to make a trade. But Van Noy and Hightower simply aren't going to get any faster or better in coverage. And that's a HUGE problem that won't be fixed by cooler temperatures or the calendar switching to November.
Agree completely about the speed of the linebackers. They've been killed by crossing routes and wheel routes...or generally any route against any speedy receiving threat out of the backfield...for years now. It's a pattern and one that's not so fixable with the current roster.

On a related note, Hightower doesn't look good. He seems really slow, and nowhere near as explosive as we were used to. That's a concern.
 

RedOctober3829

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Agree completely about the speed of the linebackers. They've been killed by crossing routes and wheel routes...or generally any route against any speedy receiving threat out of the backfield...for years now. It's a pattern and one that's not so fixable with the current roster.

On a related note, Hightower doesn't look good. He seems really slow, and nowhere near as explosive as we were used to. That's a concern.
Hightower should be more of a defensive end on the pass rush and not a linebacker anymore. He is simply too slow to play in space.
 

j44thor

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Coaching but not for the punt (which was bad) but for the 7 step drop on 3rd and 5 when all you needed was a FG to make it a 1 score game. Just inexcusable play call to put Brady directly in the path of Dante Fowler Jr. when you know at best Waddle can push him back and isn't going to get beat inside. Romo was certain they would call a quick pass there and was shocked they instead opted for a deep drop that lead to the strip sack.
 

Super Nomario

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Same old BBTL thread every September, like clockwork. Never change, SoSH.


PANIC
I have zero concern whatsoever. September has become a time for figuring shit out. The Pats have shown almost without exception for 17 years now that they improve as the season goes on. Remain calm, the Jags are really fucking good and it was really fucking hot yesterday. It's going to be all right.
I seem to remember them playing pretty bad in a late season game last year ...

Even in the successful playoff runs, they've had too many games where they've gotten off to a terrible start and needed Brady heroics to come back. Obviously both Super Bowl wins, but also the Divisional Game in 2014 against Baltimore and the AFCCG last year. The D looks bad now, it's going to look better in a few weeks when they get to play Buffalo and the Jets, and come January against good teams they're going to need Brady to throw 40-something times and put up 30 again.
 

SMU_Sox

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I seem to remember them playing pretty bad in a late season game last year ...

Even in the successful playoff runs, they've had too many games where they've gotten off to a terrible start and needed Brady heroics to come back. Obviously both Super Bowl wins, but also the Divisional Game in 2014 against Baltimore and the AFCCG last year. The D looks bad now, it's going to look better in a few weeks when they get to play Buffalo and the Jets, and come January against good teams they're going to need Brady to throw 40-something times and put up 30 again.
I am in this boat. I do not look forward to the Chiefs game on October 14th. Not one bit.
 

Bongorific

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On a positive, Gilmore has looked good. I haven’t watched much Titans but I’ve seen Butler on Red Zone get toasted on two bomb touchdowns in two games.
 

normstalls

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The roster is getting old...with age comes slowing down, less athleticism, less quickness etc. There is no simple solution to that problem. Losing draft picks, missing on draft picks and injuries to draft picks eventually catch up with you.
 

williams_482

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According to numberFire, the fourth-down punt burned less than 0.1% equity (probably even less with the new handicap on onside kicks), so I can't get too mad about that.

I'm still steamed about CP catching that swing pass like it was a cannonball though. Cost 3% in equity and was entirely his doing.
Those WP numbers expect a punt in that situation, because almost every NFL coach in history punts in that situation.

Using the Pro-Football Reference play index, the Patriots had a win expectancy of 0.4% at that 4th down. Granting them their 43 yard punt, a slightly above average outcome, gives them a win expectancy of 0.5%. Failure to convert the down gives them a 0.1% chance of winning, Successfully converting the down a 1.3% chance of winning. The breakeven rate on a conversion attempt is thus a meagre 38%.

Punting in that situation is really, really stupid.
 

rodderick

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I seem to remember them playing pretty bad in a late season game last year ...

Even in the successful playoff runs, they've had too many games where they've gotten off to a terrible start and needed Brady heroics to come back. Obviously both Super Bowl wins, but also the Divisional Game in 2014 against Baltimore and the AFCCG last year. The D looks bad now, it's going to look better in a few weeks when they get to play Buffalo and the Jets, and come January against good teams they're going to need Brady to throw 40-something times and put up 30 again.
The Patriots have averaged 32 points a game in the playoffs since 2014. Brady saved them against the Ravens, the Seahawks, the Jaguars and the Falcons. He nearly pulled it off against the Broncos and Eagles with a lot of injuries on offense in both games. That's why they still managed to succeed when the defense and the overall quality of the roster haven't been up to par for a while.

The difference is this season the offense might not be in position to bail them out. Even with Edelman returning, do we know for sure he's going to be a reasonable facsimile of what he once was? They've dependend heavily on the offense since 2007, and now not only does the defense look at best not improved from last year, they downgraded the other side of the ball. I'm not panicking, I'm sure they'll be a contender come January, it's just frustrating to see that whatever faults prevented the team from winning a championship last year were apparently exacerbated and its strengths were neutered to a degree.
 

eustis22

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They could go younger with Sam and Grigsby and Bentley but then they're gonna experience massive growing pains due to their lack of experience.
I could live with this.

How much of this thread is trepidation that [we] are not ready for The Run to be Over? I may be guilty of this and easily see the worst in most losses.

All I know is Detroit isn't going to make me feel beytter about the Pats D and the lack of receivers.

Sad that Patterson is such a pre-season phenom who has now gone back to his regular season role. Had high hopes it was coaching he lacked. Let him return punts and kicks.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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I'm not sure where the Patterson meme came about that lead to the idea it was coaching that didn't put him in the right position to succeed. Anecdotally, I see the Pats using him in the same ways other teams have; gadget plays, sweeps, screens, etc. I think it's safe to say he's bounced around for org to org because he's mediocre to poor at being a receiver. He is what he is.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I'm not an X and Os guy, but what was a little surprising from the game was how easy it was for Bortles to read the defense. There seemed to be very little deception. It seemed to me that he pretty much had a binary decision every single time he ran a non-run play. If they cover deep, go underneath. If they cover underneath, go over the top.

His execution was really great. And no pressure meant he had time to make his decision. So, part of it all was what they did well not just what the Patriots were doing poorly. But I was a little bit surprised. It didn't even look like defensive breakdowns like in the Kansas City game last year. It looked simply like a scheme that made it very easy for the offense to take what was being given.
 

ShaneTrot

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One of the thing that is so frustrating is the Pats destroy teams out of the backfield using James White in the passing game (Vereen and Faulk before that) and they have no answer on D when it happens to them. RBs roast these LBs. They did draft Kamu Grugier-Hill a few years ago, he ran a 4.45 40 but he didn't make it. But then again Jacksonville has Myles Jack and they had no answer for White.

I am not too bent about this loss. The heat was oppressive, Jacksonville was highly motivated, and Bortles played out of his mind.
 

Shelterdog

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