I don't think he will win MVP with Trout healthy, but would you be shocked if he hit .300+ and had 30 HR's with 20+ SB?
The Killer B's in 2018: What's in the Box?
- Thread starter Savin Hillbilly
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No - but I don't think he'll outplay Altuve, Judge, Stanton, Springer, Betts, Lindor etc.
I'd actually be somewhat shocked if he ever hits 30 HR in a Sox uniform. Fenway is just poison for his HR power.
You've mentioned Benintendi's home/road left/right splits a few times, and while they are vast, they were also powered by a .170 BABIP against lefties in Boston. On the road: .405 with a 144 wRC+. His K/BB ratio is better against southpaws wherever.
I don't want people to get the idea that Fenway is torturous for left-handers — it isn't. Last season it was more favorable to lefties than to righties. It yields 3% more singles, 24% more doubles, and 21% more triples to left-handers than does the average ballpark. And while it does impinge on Benny's power, that's to the tune of 10%, effectively 5% over the course of a full season — the difference between 30 and 31.57 home runs.
Of course I'm not saying Fenway is bad for LHH in general; only that it puts certain constraints on LH power, and Benintendi's power profile appears to align pretty unfortunately with those constraints. From what we've seen so far, he doesn't really have opposite-field HR power, and he wouldn't hit a lot of oppo HR in any park. His HR/FB to left field on the road is 2.2%; at Fenway, he's still waiting for his first oppo dinger. Fenway does give him some wall balls, so his overall BABIP on flyballs to left at Boston (.146) is better than on the road (.122), as is true of probably every Red Sox hitter ever.
But the problem comes in the other direction. His HR/FB to the pull side on the road so far is 39.3%; at Fenway, it's 23.5%. And if you look at his spray charts at Statcast, it's easy to see why: he hits a lot of flies to the area around grandstand sections 1-2, aka, the hardest part of Fenway to hit the ball out of. Check out what his pattern looks like at Fenway, then switch to any other park in the AL East, and you'll see the problem.
He does use the wall. He just doesn't have enough power to clear it.
Point well taken, but I'm not sure what I'm looking at here:
It looks to me like he hits a ton of balls the other way, and there's a band of flyouts right near the Monster with nary a red dot in amongst them. According to the defunct (I'm just now learning) ESPN Home Run Tracker, Benintendi has had zero "lucky" home runs in his career and only five "just enoughs." Betts has had 7 "luckies" and, disturbingly, 24 "just enoughs" in those two seasons. Jay Bruce has had 8 lucky and 29 just enough.
Interestingly, and apropos of nothing, Fenway has the shortest left field foul pole, right field foul pole, and straightaway center field wall in the majors. Edit: It also has the tallest and shortest walls.
The difference between Fenway (90 park factor for LH power) and the Bidet (114) seems to be around four or five homers to the pull side, which is right in line with the numbers.
It looks to me like he hits a ton of balls the other way, and there's a band of flyouts right near the Monster with nary a red dot in amongst them. According to the defunct (I'm just now learning) ESPN Home Run Tracker, Benintendi has had zero "lucky" home runs in his career and only five "just enoughs." Betts has had 7 "luckies" and, disturbingly, 24 "just enoughs" in those two seasons. Jay Bruce has had 8 lucky and 29 just enough.
Interestingly, and apropos of nothing, Fenway has the shortest left field foul pole, right field foul pole, and straightaway center field wall in the majors. Edit: It also has the tallest and shortest walls.
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Keith Law today. Emphasis mine.
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox: Although power across the game went up last season, Bogaerts' disappeared, as he dropped from 21 homers in 2016 to just 10 last year. His exit velocity also plummeted; in 12 fewer plate appearances last season, he had 32 percent fewer balls in play with exit velocities of at least 100 mph compared to the previous season. He dealt with a hand injury for half of the season after he was hit by a pitch in early July and tried to play through pain rather than taking time off for it to heal. Bogaerts always projected to hit for 20-plus homers, showing easy power as a teenager in A-ball, and I fully expect him to bounce back to his 2016 power levels and probably even exceed them.
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox: Although power across the game went up last season, Bogaerts' disappeared, as he dropped from 21 homers in 2016 to just 10 last year. His exit velocity also plummeted; in 12 fewer plate appearances last season, he had 32 percent fewer balls in play with exit velocities of at least 100 mph compared to the previous season. He dealt with a hand injury for half of the season after he was hit by a pitch in early July and tried to play through pain rather than taking time off for it to heal. Bogaerts always projected to hit for 20-plus homers, showing easy power as a teenager in A-ball, and I fully expect him to bounce back to his 2016 power levels and probably even exceed them.
http://www.weei.com/articles/column/bradford-why-money-not-mind-mookie-betts
Sorry about the formatting. I was also not sure if this deserved a new thread or not, but according to Bradford Betts was approached about a contract extension last off season. Betts basically has no intention of signing a long term deal at this point. It seems that if the Sox want to lock Betts up long term they are going to have to pay him market rate. At this point I am not sure what that would be. Ten years 300 million sounds a little high, but I am certain if he was a free agent this last off season he would be approaching the thirty million a year mark.
Sorry about the formatting. I was also not sure if this deserved a new thread or not, but according to Bradford Betts was approached about a contract extension last off season. Betts basically has no intention of signing a long term deal at this point. It seems that if the Sox want to lock Betts up long term they are going to have to pay him market rate. At this point I am not sure what that would be. Ten years 300 million sounds a little high, but I am certain if he was a free agent this last off season he would be approaching the thirty million a year mark.
Under that hypothetical I don't think that is an unreasonable estimate at all. He has performed, on average objectively the same (18 bWAR) in Harper's case and slightly better than Machado's 17 WAR the past three seasons who are impending free agents.
This years' free agent class was incredibly mediocre. If Hosmer, who was 3 years older than Betts earned 144 million over 8 seasons with well less than half Mookie's production at a non premium position, he could have easily cleared that.
I would guess the Yankees would have preferred him to Stanton and they owe him 265 over the next 9 years where he will be 38 compared to Betts 35.
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