NFL's Declining Viewership: One Slice at a Time

[finnVT]

What am I missing here? Viewers on League Pass and MLB TV are not part of their TV ratings, which still haven't dropped like the NFL's have.

I can only speak for myself, but there is certainly a relationship for me. I live out-of-market for Boston teams now, but subscribe to mlb.tv and on and off to NHL gamecenter. When I'm more invested-- which is generally due to the opportunity to watch my teams, and having them be good-- I also tend to watch many more national games, just because I'm generally following the league more closely.

Sunday ticket is way too expensive for me, especially on top of the needing to switch to direct tv, so I miss a lot of games, and occasionally use less than kosher ways to view them, which is a crappy experience. So even in a year where the pats look really good, it's been hard enough for me to follow them that I'm just not that invested in the league. I've stilled probably watched a bunch of the sunday night games (not complete ones, but quarters or halfs here and there), but I don't think I've turned on a Thursday or Monday night game yet this year.

 

[mauf]

Sunday ticket is way too expensive for me, especially on top of the needing to switch to direct tv, so I miss a lot of games, and occasionally use less than kosher ways to view them, which is a crappy experience.

The $300 for Sunday Ticket is only a little worse than the other leagues' services; it's forcing you to change the way you receive TV the other 350 days of the year that's a deal-breaker for many fans, including me. It's probably shortsighted for the NFL to collect the rights fee from DTV in lieu of better satisfying their biggest fans. I can't imagine, however, that this shortsighted policy contributes in any meaningful way to the current ratings drop -- there's no reason to think that big football fans are driving the decline.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Of course, I agree its a tough job. I have no problem with some sort of independent process. But abdicating it completely as suggested above is not a solution.

Meaninglessly flailing around because you have to do "something" doesn't help anyone - in fact it generally makes things worse.

Domestic violence is a huge complicated issue - and we need to deal with it at a societal level through education, providing shelter and resources to victims, etc. The NFL flailing around and suspending players seemingly randomly is not helping prevent domestic violence in any sort of way.

Ray Rice had already been arrested, charged, indicted, (then married the woman), rejected a plea deal, and then entered a pretrial intervention program for first time offenders before he even had his first hearing with Goodell. Do you think that the shitshow that happened when the NFL tried to be involved (and botched pretty much every aspect) made Janay Rice (or any other woman) safer? I don't. All that shitshow did is make the NFL look incompetent.

The NFL did a 10 month investigation into Josh Brown (so they say) - and said that with the fact that the victim recanted, there were no charges filed, a general lack of evidence, and the DA involved saying there was no case they couldn't justify more than a short suspension. And it blew up in their face. There's 2 possibilities here - he did it, and they're soft on domestic violence, or he didn't, and they're suspending players for evidence-less allegations. Either one makes them look bad.

Now, maybe the perception that NFL players are wifebeating assholes is helping to offset the fact that the NFL is destroying it's employee's brains (they're villains, they deserve it) - but I don't think that's enough to offset the fact that it's making people not want to watch.

Eagles LB Nigel Bradham has been arrested twice this year (and once a couple years ago for weed) - once in July for assaulting someone in the lobby of a hotel, and a couple weeks ago for carrying a loaded gun onto a plane at Miami International. I think it's undeniable that his crimes have been significantly less damaging to the NFL than Josh Brown's - and that's largely because they've (to this point) let the justice system handle it - and not called attention to it.

 

[luckiestman]

Meaninglessly flailing around because you have to do "something" doesn't help anyone - in fact it generally makes things worse.

Domestic violence is a huge complicated issue - and we need to deal with it at a societal level through education, providing shelter and resources to victims, etc. The NFL flailing around and suspending players seemingly randomly is not helping prevent domestic violence in any sort of way.

Ray Rice had already been arrested, charged, indicted, (then married the woman), rejected a plea deal, and then entered a pretrial intervention program for first time offenders before he even had his first hearing with Goodell. Do you think that the shitshow that happened when the NFL tried to be involved (and botched pretty much every aspect) made Janay Rice (or any other woman) safer? I don't. All that shitshow did is make the NFL look incompetent.

The NFL did a 10 month investigation into Josh Brown (so they say) - and said that with the fact that the victim recanted, there were no charges filed, a general lack of evidence, and the DA involved saying there was no case they couldn't justify more than a short suspension. And it blew up in their face. There's 2 possibilities here - he did it, and they're soft on domestic violence, or he didn't, and they're suspending players for evidence-less allegations. Either one makes them look bad.

Now, maybe the perception that NFL players are wifebeating assholes is helping to offset the fact that the NFL is destroying it's employee's brains (they're villains, they deserve it) - but I don't think that's enough to offset the fact that it's making people not want to watch.

Eagles LB Nigel Bradham has been arrested twice this year (and once a couple years ago for weed) - once in July for assaulting someone in the lobby of a hotel, and a couple weeks ago for carrying a loaded gun onto a plane at Miami International. I think it's undeniable that his crimes have been significantly less damaging to the NFL than Josh Brown's - and that's largely because they've (to this point) let the justice system handle it - and not called attention to it.

I agree with this position. Let the law or individual teams do what they will. The league should stay out of it.

 

[mwonow]

Did the media treat the Aroldis Chapman and Ray Rice stories similarly, even prior to the Rice video? Of course not. You don't have to think the NFL handles player conduct issues well (obviously, they don't) to acknowledge that it's a tough job -- the degree of difficulty for the NFL is much higher than for other pro sports leagues. That's partly because of the vast popularity of the league, partly because they have a bigger problem than the other leagues (mostly because of larger rosters, but partly because of a greater incidence of violent misconduct), partly because the violent nature of the sport causes fans to view off-field violent misconduct by players differently, and partly because their player population is a lot darker-skinned than their fan base.

Imo, the best solution for ownership is for Goodell to take a hard line, but to allow for an independent appeals process, such that actual player discipline would be slightly less strict than it is now. This is the NFL's best bet to deal with guys like Pacman Jones and Ben Roethlisberger who put everyone's livelihood at risk, without creating an expectation that the NFL will compensate across the board for the criminal justice system's weaknesses; incidentally, it would also keep guys like TB12 from getting railroaded.

Not sure why, but your phrase brought to mind an old Doonesbury strip:

 

[OCST]

Yeah, but to be fair, don't you live in Brooklyn?

Yeah. There's room for both of them.

 

[riboflav]

The NFL takes itself too seriously. That is the biggest difference between itself and the other leagues. It thinks it is as important an American institution as any other. Richard Sherman hit the nail on the head today. Lighten up, let the players enjoy themselves, stop thinking you're in the same sphere as the American political or justice system, and many (not all) fans will come back.

 

[luckiestman]

The NFL takes itself too seriously. That is the biggest difference between itself and the other leagues. It thinks it is as important an American institution as any other. Richard Sherman hit the nail on the head today. Lighten up, let the players enjoy themselves, stop thinking you're in the same sphere as the American political or justice system, and many (not all) fans will come back.

If I put aside my personal feelings about Favre and I just think about how much fun Madden had calling Brett Favre games it makes me realize how not fun and overly serious the broadcasts have become.

 

[joe dokes]

Maybe another reason people are turning off the NFL because its Hall of Fame is led by fuckwits:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/11/04/hall-of-fame-wont-give-a-jacket-or-a-ring-to-ken-stabler/

As noticed on the Twitter feed of Mike Freeman, whose biography of Ken Stabler will be released this month, the powers-that-be at the Pro Football Hall of Fame have declined to give a gold jacket or a so-called Ring of Excellence to Stabler. Presumably because he’s not alive to wear them.

That’s precisely the kind of weak, short-sighted, tone-deaf thinking that sparked a needless squabble with the family of Junior Seau and that fueled the recent Hall of Fame game fiasco, which resulted in the cancellation of the game due to a slapstick effort to dry paint on the field.

[snip]

At a time when the NFL seems to be more sensitive than ever to public reaction, hopefully a loud and negative reaction to the treatment of the family of Ken Stabler will get the Hall of Fame (which is run by, among others, seven owners and Commissioner Roger Goodell) to do the right thing.

 

[tims4wins]

The league is fucking despicable. I hope it implodes. I love football and I love the Pats but I will do a happy dance if the NFL ever folds

 

[Van Everyman]

I literally do not understand this. Is the jacket actually made out of gold? Is the "Ring of Excellence" unduly expensive? Is the NFL trying to save money? Why would they do this?

 

[joe dokes]

The league is fucking despicable. I hope it implodes. I love football and I love the Pats but I will do a happy dance if the NFL ever folds

His relatives should bring his body (or urn) to Canton and seat it next to Goodell.

This is his daughter's feed:

 

[edmunddantes]

Literally no upside to this decision.

Maybe Roger and the 7 owners on the board can talk some sense into the HoF.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Is the NFL HoF different from the MLB? By that, I mean is it actually run by the NFL, whereas Cooperstown is not run by MLB?

 

[joe dokes]

Is the NFL HoF different from the MLB? By that, I mean is it actually run by the NFL, whereas Cooperstown is not run by MLB?

According the the PFT story:

At a time when the NFL seems to be more sensitive than ever to public reaction, hopefully a loud and negative reaction to the treatment of the family of Ken Stabler will get the Hall of Fame (which is run by, among others, seven owners and Commissioner Roger Goodell) to do the right thing.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Sorry, I missed that sentence. Thanks.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Gee, it's shocking that an entity run by the commish and a small cadre of owners would be a colossal clusterfuck.

 

[joe dokes]

I literally do not understand this. Is the jacket actually made out of gold? Is the "Ring of Excellence" unduly expensive? Is the NFL trying to save money? Why would they do this?

Why?
I would explain, but common fans like you probably wouldn't understand such a complicated matter:

 

[Leather]

Maybe if she's lucky they'll give her a pink Raiders jersey and a link to the No More promo pieces.

Because they care about women.

 

[axx]

Ratings were pretty good for the day Thanksgiving games; not so much for the night game. 'Course it helped that Lions-Vikings was for first place and Cowboys-Redskins is always going to be a decent draw with both having winning records.

 

[Harry Hooper]

John Madden talks about ratings decline, not a fan of Thursday night games:

Something has to be done about Thursday-night football. It just doesn't work. It's not only a fan thing — it's a team thing. It's a safety thing. It's a competitive thing. It doesn't work. I know about money, and I know about business. Maybe you have to tweak stuff a little more. To help teams, maybe you get a bye the week before.

Mercury News

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Thursdays done?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/11/27/league-will-take-a-close-look-at-thursday-night-football/

 

[Bowhemian]

I'm a huge football fan, always have been. But I am getting really sick of all the fucking commercials. I know it has been said many times in this thread, but they have got to be getting to critical mass. I mean, if this particular football fan (not just a casual watcher) is changing the channel, I have to imagine there are a lot more people not watching as much. Yes, I will continue to watch the Pats games, but the amount of commercials are killing it for me.

 

[Jordu]

I'm a huge football fan, always have been. But I am getting really sick of all the fucking commercials. I know it has been said many times in this thread, but they have got to be getting to critical mass. I mean, if this particular football fan (not just a casual watcher) is changing the channel, I have to imagine there are a lot more people not watching as much. Yes, I will continue to watch the Pats games, but the amount of commercials are killing it for me.

After watching the Bruins game (two TV timeouts per period) at 1, the Patriots game at 4:30 was nearly unwatchable because of all the commercial breaks. NFL games have become so drearily slow they're not good TV any more.

 

[loshjott]

I'm a huge football fan, always have been. But I am getting really sick of all the fucking commercials. I know it has been said many times in this thread, but they have got to be getting to critical mass. I mean, if this particular football fan (not just a casual watcher) is changing the channel, I have to imagine there are a lot more people not watching as much. Yes, I will continue to watch the Pats games, but the amount of commercials are killing it for me.

The networks paid a zillion dollars for the right to the games, and that money props up the whole operation. I'm sure they are guaranteed a certain amount of commercial time.

 

[Seels]

I want to keep Thursday night football just have less of it. No one except die hards are tuning into a game featuring Cleveland and Baltimore. Lessen it to 8 games or so, make them align with bye weeks, and make them not dogshit games. Stop giving cellar dwellers prime time teams.

and yea the commercials are awful. I've stopped watching each of the last two games for various chunks just cause I can't take the ratio of commercial to game time. Just lose either the commercial after a kick off or the one after scoring and it'll be noticeably better.

 

[Harry Hooper]

The networks paid a zillion dollars for the right to the games, and that money props up the whole operation. I'm sure they are guaranteed a certain amount of commercial time.

True, but that doesn't mean the networks' current model is maxing out the revenues. Fewer commercial breaks means fewer coveted spots for advertisers. A higher $ fee per ad plus higher ratings might generate more advertising revenue for the networks. As long as the ratings kept riding high, the temptation was there to stuff as many ads into each broadcast as possible.

 

[dirtynine]

The ad situation has the effect, on me at least, of making me get less "into" any particular moment of the game. Because I've been conditioned to zone out during commercials, I often don't get back into game mode until a play or two into live action, and half the time another commercial break zaps that feeling immediately. I'm constantly watching in a distracted state. Ad time used to feel desperate - like, hit the head, get what you need from the fridge and get back to the couch for the next snap - whereas now I don't hurry back, and if I miss something or deal with another issue or stay on my phone, oh well. There's no real sense of urgency until the last few minutes of games or until the playoffs, and even then it feels watered down.

 

[McBride11]

How would the NFL moving to ads on unis (ala soccer) or ads on the grass around the edge or a rotating permanent ad banner next to the tv digital scoreboard affect the TV contracts? They could cut back commercials since they ads are always on.

 

[mauf]

How would the NFL moving to ads on unis (ala soccer) or ads on the grass around the edge or a rotating permanent ad banner next to the tv digital scoreboard affect the TV contracts? They could cut back commercials since they ads are always on.

They could superimpose the ads on the playing surface, like they do with the yellow line. I'm guessing they've researched it and decided that the risk of fam backlash is too great.

 

[jon abbey]

Not sure why more people don't watch football on DVR, you can start a college game two hours late and still be caught up before it's over.

 

[riboflav]

Not sure why more people don't watch football on DVR, you can start a college game two hours late and still be caught up before it's over.

This is what I do. I just watched the Pats/Jets game in 2.25 hours and finished it live when everyone else did.

 

[luckiestman]

Not sure why more people don't watch football on DVR, you can start a college game two hours late and still be caught up before it's over.

Sometimes I do, but that fast forwarding shit gets old too. It's just a bad product and if I wasn't addicted to it from watching it so much growing up I'd probably let it go. (Never mind that the quality of play seems dreadful lately)

I started watching club soccer and while I only think it is an ok sport, the no commercials make it a real pleasure to watch. Somehow they are generating a ton of revenue so it would be nice if the NFL could do something better.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

As Jets fans, you should just fast forward to the post-game show.

 

[luckiestman]

As Jets fans, you should just fast forward to the post-game show.

I relish the misery

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Sometimes I do, but that fast forwarding shit gets old too. It's just a bad product and if I wasn't addicted to it from watching it so much growing up I'd probably let it go. (Never mind that the quality of play seems dreadful lately)

I started watching club soccer and while I only think it is an ok sport, the no commercials make it a real pleasure to watch. Somehow they are generating a ton of revenue so it would be nice if the NFL could do something better.

It's gotten far too extreme, but I'm not sure the players could last all 60 minutes without any commercials. A quick breather to these guys probably means a good bit. It can certainly be dialed back, I'm not saying that. And I know you're not suggesting going full bore 30 mins at a time. I'm just not sure that guys that big could hit each other and run and engage, etc for such extended periods without even a small break. Soccer players get their time to catch a breath, don't engage physically and and conditioned for endurance, as opposed to spurts.

The commercials suck and at least for me it just leads to ADD while watching the game. I'll dive into my phone or a conversation and miss stuff. Most weeks I watch with my dad and we've taken to starting late and FFing through, but that causes its own problems.

The model is set and they won't change it because $$$$ but if they could eliminate like 25% it would be great. Td. Commercial. XP. Commercial. Kickoff. Commercial. Review. Commercial. Etc. and it's the same fucking commercials all the time.

Limit them to possession changes or scores like it used to be. Charge more per spot.

 

[jon abbey]

As Jets fans, you should just fast forward to the post-game show.

Not that anyone cares, but since you brought it up, I have renounced my Jets fandom in recent weeks, they don't deserve my enthusiasm any longer. I don't think I could do that if I was a lifelong fan, but I was a nutty Air Coryell fan as a kid, with a long transition to a Jets fan years later after all the SD personnel left and they got boring. I am attempting to switch to being a Raiders fan (although I wish they were staying in Oakland), but more likely I will end up back to a general NFL viewer without a real team for a while.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I predict this Thursday game will have better ratings.

Put two good teams in the game and it would do even better.

 

[mauf]

Not that anyone cares, but since you brought it up, I have renounced my Jets fandom in recent weeks, they don't deserve my enthusiasm any longer. I don't think I could do that if I was a lifelong fan, but I was a nutty Air Coryell fan as a kid, with a long transition to a Jets fan years later after all the SD personnel left and they got boring. I am attempting to switch to being a Raiders fan (although I wish they were staying in Oakland), but more likely I will end up back to a general NFL viewer without a real team for a while.

It's not a bad place to be. I'm a lifelong Steelers fan. If the Roethlisberger raping that girl (and probably the woman in Vegas too, and God knows who else) while I was living in New England with peak BB/TB12 didn't change that, nothing will. But it did convert me from being a fan of my team to being more of a fan of the sport in general. And frankly, I don't need to live and die by the fortunes of my favorite team in every sport -- I do that for the Red Sox, and to a lesser extent for the Celtics. That's enough.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

The commercials have been a problem for years and never affected ratings before. Over saturation, Goodell's dictatorial practices, and concussions are a big part. Officiating continues to be a major concern...the replacement refs showed how difficult a sport it is to control, but the inconsistency of the replay rules (some officials defer to the calls on the field unless there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary, others do not), the application of the "catch" rule, as well as the haphazard application of holding calls (both sides of the ball) literally turn games, and become overwhelming to fans.

 

[JimD]

I'm a huge football fan, always have been. But I am getting really sick of all the fucking commercials. I know it has been said many times in this thread, but they have got to be getting to critical mass. I mean, if this particular football fan (not just a casual watcher) is changing the channel, I have to imagine there are a lot more people not watching as much. Yes, I will continue to watch the Pats games, but the amount of commercials are killing it for me.

I really noticed this on Thursday myself. Being an out-of-town fan, I don't watch much NFL football since the Pats aren't on every week but Thanksgiving Day is the one day that the games will be on for much of the day. We were constantly flipping channels during the commercial breaks and it wasn't just the disinterested family members clamoring to do this - even my brother-in-law who is a big sports fan was changing channels. At various points it stayed on a movie or a show for a while before someone would want to check back to see what was going on in the game. In an age where it is harder than ever to get people's attention for more than a few minutes at a time, the concept of oversized commercial breaks does not seem to be a smart long-term strategy.

 

[tims4wins]

Re: commercials. At least for the CBS afternoon games, the commercial breaks only last 1:30 (for the most part - some are 30 second breaks, I think a few are 2 minutes). I agree there are too many, but at least they are short.

Not sure how many folks watched the Michigan-OSU game Saturday afternoon on ABC. The commercial breaks during that game were routinely 2:30 or 3:00. They were freaking interminable and really hurt the viewing experience IMO.

So while I agree it could be better in terms of fewer commercial breaks, at least they aren't too long.

 

[SumnerH]

Not sure why more people don't watch football on DVR

Because watching DVR'd sports loses all the emotional drama. It feels like you're watching an extended recap, not the real event.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Because watching DVR'd sports loses all the emotional drama. It feels like you're watching an extended recap, not the real event.

I think that's true if you're watching a DVR'd game after it's over, but do you feel this is true if you start watching a DVR'd game 30 minutes after kickoff, and just forward through the commercials?

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, exactly. My experience is that aggressive fast-forwarding (between plays in football, free throws in hoops, etc.) you lose maybe 5 percent of the atmosphere, but on the flip side not only do you fit it into a much much smaller window, but you're actually closely watching the entire time because there's no dead time. I'm not saying it will work for everyone, but it's changed my sports viewing life, I can't imagine going back.

 

[kenneycb]

Because watching DVR'd sports loses all the emotional drama. It feels like you're watching an extended recap, not the real event.

Not to mention spoilers given I get updates and whatnot on my phone.

 

[loshjott]

Not to mention spoilers given I get updates and whatnot on my phone.

Yes, we broke for dinner at half time of the Pats game yesterday and picked it up after about a 30 min break. My sons and I had to hide our phones until we got back to real time. It really is a different experience than watching live, much less emotional drama. I suppose it eventually will be a generational thing that will lose distinction, but for me it's not the same.

 

[SumnerH]

I think that's true if you're watching a DVR'd game after it's over, but do you feel this is true if you start watching a DVR'd game 30 minutes after kickoff, and just forward through the commercials?

Yes. Half the pleasure of watching sporting events for me is that it's a shared experience; even though I know that "live" feeds are delayed a few seconds or longer due to system latencies, they still feel like I'm watching events as they unfold. Watching on DVR doesn't--I'd rather listen to the radio or watch the GameDay updates on ESPN's website or something in real-ish time.

 

[Spelunker]

Hell, it's hard enough watching via a stream knowing that I'm ~30 seconds behind the gamethread.

 

[riboflav]

Yeah, exactly. My experience is that aggressive fast-forwarding (between plays in football, free throws in hoops, etc.) you lose maybe 5 percent of the atmosphere, but on the flip side not only do you fit it into a much much smaller window, but you're actually closely watching the entire time because there's no dead time. I'm not saying it will work for everyone, but it's changed my sports viewing life, I can't imagine going back.

Apparently, JA and I watch NFL games the same way and I think the bolded above is key. It just seems like a more focused, intimate experience now. I find myself remembering key plays in the game much more vividly and accurately when I start a game 30-45 minutes late and watch zero commercials. I also don't feel like I'm missing out on anything because I tend to watch the final minutes live along side everyone else. I've been doing this especially since my son was born in order to shrink the time I spend watching the Pats but I recall doing this in spurts from about 2008-on.

FTR, I also do with with NCAA basketball which is also crazy mad with commercials. (What a pleasure it is to watch March Madness games from the late-80s before all the breaks every four minutes.) And, I think it's hurt the overall product more so than in the NFL because of the fact that all players transition back and forth between offense and defense, momentum, pace, and tempo (or flow if you will) are important factors in the game that become stagnated and disrupted by the countless breaks in game action.

It is the main reason why I watch some soccer now (never watched a game until 2014). To see teams and players experience flow and have a flow experience as a sports fan is so rare now... at least with televised events. The only other place I get that is attending high school sports or D3 college games.