The Pitching Staff Going Forward

[geoduck no quahog]

Now that the position players are essentially set...thought a new thread dedicated to a Red Sox pitching staff going into the playoffs would be useful. One thing that stands out to me is the potential lack of a #2 starter - made up by several #3 starters. It's going to be an interesting story at playoff time. And yes, of course everything depends on how the staff pitches in August and September - so this thread will evolve.

Here's where I think they are, say, in September:

(SP) Sale
(SP) Price
(SP) Porcello
(SP) Rodriguez
(SP) Eovaldi

(C) Kimbrel
(8th) Thornburg
(8th) Barnes
(SR) Hembree
(SR) Brasier
(SR) Kelly
(LR) Pomeranz

Still assuming a 12-man staff.
Assuming Rodriguez is healthy in about 1 month+
Assuming Eovaldi out-performs Pomeranz (and a RHP to boot)
Assuming Wright is done
Assuming Kelly figures things out
Assuming Sale is still alive

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

September call ups could be quite interesting for potential bullpen spots

 

[mauf]

One thing that stands out to me is the potential lack of a #2 starter - made up by several #3 starters.

Porcello is 17th among AL pitchers in fWAR. Price is 22nd. Their ERA rank among qualifiers is similar. To the extent a #2 starter is a thing, the Sox appear to have two of them.

Sure, it would be great if we had two aces and two back-end #1s like the Astros do, but you can’t win ‘em all.

 

[Comeback Kid]

Shawn Kelley just DFA’ed by the Nats. Would be worth a flyer. Had a great season in 2016 and good peripherals this year.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Porcello is 17th among AL pitchers in fWAR. Price is 22nd. Their ERA rank among qualifiers is similar. To the extent a #2 starter is a thing, the Sox appear to have two of them.

Sure, it would be great if we had two aces and two back-end #1s like the Astros do, but you can’t win ‘em all.

Fair enough. Given that - it'll be interesting to predict who would start (say) game 1 of the Division series against the Yankees if Sale were to win the WC game. Could really be any one of the three. My guess? Price.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

I don’t think it’s a fair assessment to say we don’t have a #2 starter just because Houston’s #2 is better than either Porcello or Price. Both of those guys are more than adequate in a series.

 

[bosockboy]

Shawn Kelley just DFA’ed by the Nats. Would be worth a flyer. Had a great season in 2016 and good peripherals this year.

Yeah he has a sub 1 WHIP and was DFA'd for throwing his glove on the mound. He apologized. I'd definitely take a look, but would have to clear all the way to us.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

Cleveland will block any decent player that gets waived that could help us.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Cleveland will block any decent player that gets waived that could help us.

Yep. There will be no worthwhile outside additions going forward. Any help would be coming from within.

 

[joe dokes]

Now that the position players are essentially set...thought a new thread dedicated to a Red Sox pitching staff going into the playoffs would be useful. One thing that stands out to me is the potential lack of a #2 starter - made up by several #3 starters. It's going to be an interesting story at playoff time. And yes, of course everything depends on how the staff pitches in August and September - so this thread will evolve.

Here's where I think they are, say, in September:

(SP) Sale
(SP) Price
(SP) Porcello
(SP) Rodriguez
(SP) Eovaldi

(C) Kimbrel
(8th) Thornburg
(8th) Barnes
(SR) Hembree
(SR) Brasier
(SR) Kelly
(LR) Pomeranz

Still assuming a 12-man staff.
Assuming Rodriguez is healthy in about 1 month+
Assuming Eovaldi out-performs Pomeranz (and a RHP to boot)
Assuming Wright is done
Assuming Kelly figures things out
Assuming Sale is still alive

The next 4 weeks might put Johnson ahead of Pomeranz at the bottom of the pecking order.

 

[grimshaw]

They would have already snagged Kelley if they were interested in him at that price. He was just as available yesterday.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

They would have already snagged Kelley if they were interested in him at that price. He was just as available yesterday.

Not necessarily. Yesterday he'd have cost a prospect or cash or some sort of compensation in trade. Today, he could come for free (just pay his remaining salary) if they claim him on waivers. Of course, given that he wasn't DFA for poor performance, the chances that he gets past 28 other teams for them to make a claim or clears waivers entirely to becomes a free agent are slim and none.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Cleveland will block any decent player that gets waived that could help us.

Is that necessarily true? I mean no one blocked Verlander to the Astros last year ....

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is that necessarily true? I mean no one blocked Verlander to the Astros last year ....

Verlander was owed the last month of 2017 salary plus 2/$56M or 3/$78M (if 2020 option vested) at the time. No one put a claim on him because the Tigers could have let him go and the claiming team would have had to take the full contract.

As it was, he cleared waivers and the Astros were able to negotiate to get the Tigers to chip in ~$17M toward the remainder of his deal AND Verlander waived the 2020 option as part of approving the deal (he had a no-trade clause).

Different story witih someone like Shaun Kelley owed a pro-rated portion of $5.5M and nothing more.

 

[chawson]

Kelley has a pretty brutal home run problem that’s more pronounced against RHH. That coupled with the attitude stuff and I’m not sure he’s worth rostering over Brasier/Workman/Velazquez.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Is that necessarily true? I mean no one blocked Verlander to the Astros last year ....

This seems like a corollary to the "tall lefties take a while to develop, look at Randy Johnson" line of thinking that's been applied to Henry Owens and Trey Ball

 

[Harry Hooper]

This is not encouraging:

• RHP Steven Wright (knee) has not been cleared to return to throw off a mound is limited to throwing off flat ground. “Good days, bad days,” summarized Cora.

BSJ

 

[DeadlySplitter]

at least ERod is progressing rapidly

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

This is not encouraging:

• RHP Steven Wright (knee) has not been cleared to return to throw off a mound is limited to throwing off flat ground. “Good days, bad days,” summarized Cora.

BSJ

Between his and Pedroia’s updates, it just seems the potential recovery time back was grossly underestimated.

 

[Rasputin]

Between his and Pedroia’s updates, it just seems the potential recovery time back was grossly underestimated.

Yeah. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens next year.

 

[RedOctober3829]

With the emergence of Eovaldi, does this make David Price to the pen in October a possibility? I think it’s even more of a possibility if ERod comes back healthy and effective. You’d have Sale/Price/Porcello/Eovaldi/ERod/Pom for 4 spots. Having Price for multiple inning stints would be a pretty big weapon as shown last year.

 

[DJnVa]

If we move him to pen wouldn’t it be because he hasn’t been effective? Because if he is effective down the stretch then why move him?

And if he isn’t effective then counting on him for multiple inning stints seems odd.

 

[bosockboy]

With the emergence of Eovaldi, does this make David Price to the pen in October a possibility? I think it’s even more of a possibility if ERod comes back healthy and effective. You’d have Sale/Price/Porcello/Eovaldi/ERod/Pom for 4 spots. Having Price for multiple inning stints would be a pretty big weapon as shown last year.

I think Eduardo would be the guy since it will take time to build stamina and length. Price may have a guy assigned to piggy back him but he will get the starts. He’s reallly been very good outside of that MFY stinker.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If we move him to pen wouldn’t it be because he hasn’t been effective? Because if he is effective down the stretch then why move him?

And if he isn’t effective then counting on him for multiple inning stints seems odd.

My thinking behind it is that if there's more than 4 starters pitching effectively that Price's stuff and experience pitching out of the pen would be the deciding factor. He could be the prototypical bullpen ace who could be used at any point of the game. It could be Rodriguez too, but Price did it last year and was really good at it.

You're probably right in the end. If he's pitching well, they'll keep him in the rotation. But somebody is going to have to go into the pen and Price showed last year he was really effective in that role.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

What, if any, discount can be given to a pitcher's outlier outings when evaluating their overall performance? And what can we call an outlier?

For all the criticism David Price receives, he's had three horrid starts, two poor-ish ones, and the rest have all been good or better (for the sake of this post, I'm defining "good" as pitching at least 5 innings, but allowing 3 runs less than the total number of innings pitched, so 5 IP, 2 ER... 6 IP, 3 ER... and so on).

Outside of the three times he got shelled, his ERA is 2.76.

For the record, Sale has had two bad outings to Price's five. Porcello has had seven bad outings, but only one was truly awful.

Y-Axis is innings pitched, X-Axis is ER allowed.







Price is usually good to very good with a tendency to randomly be either excellent or terrible.
Sale is generally excellent, but sometimes merely very good. Rarely mediocre, let alone bad.
Porcello tends to be good to mediocre, with a fair chance of being excellent, but he's rarely terrible.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I think the idea of Price pitching out of the pen during the playoffs is one with a lot of merit. He’s done well there in the past, and having a LHP reliever or two would really help balance the roster. Assuming EdRo comes back pitching well by mid-September, I’d prefer:

SP1 - Sale
SP2 - Porcello
SP3 - Rodriguez
SP4 - Eovaldi

RP1 - Kimbrel
RP2 - Barnes
RP3 - Price
RP4 - Hembree
RP5 - Kelly
RP6 - Brasier
RP7 - Johnson

If EdRo doesn’t come back strong enough on his ankle to pitch at 95-100% what he was doing in the first half, then Price should absolutely start in his place.

But if Eovaldi is able to continue pitching as efficiently as he has the last two games, there’s no way he should be taken out of the playoff rotation.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think Eduardo would be the guy since it will take time to build stamina and length. Price may have a guy assigned to piggy back him but he will get the starts. He’s reallly been very good outside of that MFY stinker.

I think this is spot on. Unless Price falters down the stretch, the rotation should be Sale/Porcello/Price/Eovaldi with Edro as the long guy if a starter falters.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I find it unlikely.... but what if Pomeranz starts to look as good and effective as he did last season, through the remainder of his starts- going 6-ish innings, averaging less than 2 runs allowed?
Obviously a good problem to have...... and IF that happens, I would still think he'd be also best assigned to a long man role in the playoffs- extra innings marathon type.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I find it unlikely.... but what if Pomeranz starts to look as good and effective as he did last season, through the remainder of his starts- going 6-ish innings, averaging less than 2 runs allowed?
Obviously a good problem to have...... and IF that happens, I would still think he'd be also best assigned to a long man role in the playoffs- extra innings marathon type.

Pomeranz needs to show increased fastball velocity, increased fastball command, and effective use of his cutter for strikes, before I’d be inclined to give him either of the playoff roster spots which Johnson and Rodriguez have earned this season.

It’s not impossible, but it’s a high bar to clear. And his effectiveness is not going to be proved by results against non-playoff teams. In my mind, it will have to rely on peripherals showing that his 2016-17 stuff is, indeed, back.

There’s no place for a 2-pitch, left-handed junkballer on any playoff roster that’s likely to go up against any team with A) Davis, Chapman, and Lowrie; B ) Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, and Gregorius; or especially C) Springer, Bergman, Altuve, Correa, and Gattis.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't think there's a chance that Price ends up in the post-season bullpen. As Hank Scorpio pointed out, except for a couple really bad starts, he's been a very very good pitcher all year. He's the ALDS Game 2 starter for this team right now, and it would take some drastic circumstances for him to be leapfrogged by three pitchers and get pushed out of the rotation in October.

 

[BaseballJones]

It's been documented (once by me recently) that Price's postseason performance as a starter has been pretty bad on the whole, while as a reliever he's been excellent. It may be nothing more than SSS. But maybe there's something to it.

We saw what a weapon he could be in a relief role. What if the optimal usage of David Price in the playoffs is as a 2-3 inning guy over several games instead of as a starter?

In a five game series he's not getting more than one start (probably, even if it goes well, not pitching more than six innings). But as a reliever he might be able to positively impact three games throwing six quality innings.

 

[RedOctober3829]

It's been documented (once by me recently) that Price's postseason performance as a starter has been pretty bad on the whole, while as a reliever he's been excellent. It may be nothing more than SSS. But maybe there's something to it.

We saw what a weapon he could be in a relief role. What if the optimal usage of David Price in the playoffs is as a 2-3 inning guy over several games instead of as a starter?

In a five game series he's not getting more than one start (probably, even if it goes well, not pitching more than six innings). But as a reliever he might be able to positively impact three games throwing six quality innings.

That's what I was getting at with my post. If the best thing for the team would be Price going to the pen, then why not? Things like ineffectiveness or injury could take this potential issue and make it a moot point but if all of Sale/Price/Porcello/ERod/Eovaldi/Pomeranz are healthy and pitching well then something has to give. We all know a starter is going to the bullpen so why not go with the pitcher who showed he had success with it in the past? Price's power stuff plays up in short stints moreso than Pomeranz.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I don't think there's a chance that Price ends up in the post-season bullpen. As Hank Scorpio pointed out, except for a couple really bad starts, he's been a very very good pitcher all year. He's the ALDS Game 2 starter for this team right now, and it would take some drastic circumstances for him to be leapfrogged by three pitchers and get pushed out of the rotation in October.

Price has been a very good pitcher. But it’s not a drastic circumstance if Porcello, Rodriguez, and Eovaldi are all pitching better at the end of the season.

Porcello has been essentially as good as Price this season. Rodriguez was already pitching better than Price until his injury. And Eovaldi is a wild card, in so far as one can’t really expect him to keep up throwing as good as he has... but he’s been pitching exceptionally well.

I agree with the thinking that his getting 4-6 innings in the ALDS, along with 8-10 innings in the ALCS, would be about the same whether he’s a starter or a reliever.

 

[bosockboy]

Eduardo would also likely be very good in 2-4 inning stints, where his velocity can be dialed up. The Price idea has baseball merit but it was done for injury reasons last year. Just about a zero chance of this happening unless something drastic occurs in terms of performance. Unless you want to pretty much guarantee he opts out, because that would do it.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

It's been documented (once by me recently) that Price's postseason performance as a starter has been pretty bad on the whole, while as a reliever he's been excellent. It may be nothing more than SSS. But maybe there's something to it.

We saw what a weapon he could be in a relief role. What if the optimal usage of David Price in the playoffs is as a 2-3 inning guy over several games instead of as a starter?

In a five game series he's not getting more than one start (probably, even if it goes well, not pitching more than six innings). But as a reliever he might be able to positively impact three games throwing six quality innings.

Agreed. If put into the pen, it's not necessarily to be pushed down to 6th inning duties. He could be used primarily as starter insurance in case anyone blows up, pitching anywhere from 2-5 innings, plus he increases matchup flexibility. It's a useful role, and either him, ERod, or Eovaldi will likely be doing it.

 

[BaseballJones]

Agreed. If put into the pen, it's not necessarily to be pushed down to 6th inning duties. He could be used primarily as starter insurance in case anyone blows up, pitching anywhere from 2-5 innings, plus he increases matchup flexibility. It's a useful role, and either him, ERod, or Eovaldi will likely be doing it.

Certainly teams the past couple of postseasons have shown how valuable such a pitcher and role can be.

 

[AB in DC]

Well, at this moment, the top four Sox starters this year are Sale, Porcello, EdRo, and Eovaldi. So there's certainly an argument for Price in the bullpen. Of course, EdRo is injured and Eovaldi has only pitched 72 innings this year, so either one of them could drop behind Price. But it's not that far-fetched.

 

[grimshaw]

Pomeranz needs to show increased fastball velocity, increased fastball command, and effective use of his cutter for strikes, before I’d be inclined to give him either of the playoff roster spots which Johnson and Rodriguez have earned this season.

It’s not impossible, but it’s a high bar to clear. And his effectiveness is not going to be proved by results against non-playoff teams. In my mind, it will have to rely on peripherals showing that his 2016-17 stuff is, indeed, back.

Agree. Unless he strings a lot of good starts together, as of today I want no part of Pomeranz on the post season roster. Particularly in a series against the Yankees. He's been by far their worst pitcher.

Even if E-Rod or Wright isn't back and healthy, I'd take Johnson right now.

 

[uncannymanny]

Eduardo would also likely be very good in 2-4 inning stints, where his velocity can be dialed up. The Price idea has baseball merit but it was done for injury reasons last year. Just about a zero chance of this happening unless something drastic occurs in terms of performance. Unless you want to pretty much guarantee he opts out, because that would do it.

Guarantee opt outs you say? ...

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

Great new article on Fangraphs by David Laurila - Rick Porcello on Losing and Then Rediscovering His Curveball

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcello-on-losing-and-then-rediscovering-his-curveball/

 

[chrisfont9]

I think the idea of Price pitching out of the pen during the playoffs is one with a lot of merit. He’s done well there in the past, and having a LHP reliever or two would really help balance the roster. Assuming EdRo comes back pitching well by mid-September, I’d prefer:

SP1 - Sale
SP2 - Porcello
SP3 - Rodriguez
SP4 - Eovaldi

RP1 - Kimbrel
RP2 - Barnes
RP3 - Price
RP4 - Hembree
RP5 - Kelly
RP6 - Brasier
RP7 - Johnson

If EdRo doesn’t come back strong enough on his ankle to pitch at 95-100% what he was doing in the first half, then Price should absolutely start in his place.

But if Eovaldi is able to continue pitching as efficiently as he has the last two games, there’s no way he should be taken out of the playoff rotation.

Very daring. Maybe they do this to nudge Price into exercising his opt-out. Anyway I'm glad to see Johnson in your list, he has to be kept around at this point. What more could he do?

 

[In my lifetime]

Very daring. Maybe they do this to nudge Price into exercising his opt-out. Anyway I'm glad to see Johnson in your list, he has to be kept around at this point. What more could he do?

1. The RS will go with the 4 best starters regardless of any player options
2. I highly doubt anything would make Price exercise his option,since his market value is probably no more than 25 MM/yr not 31.67 MM/yr for the next 4 years, considering his recent injury history and almost certainty of decreasing performance at ages 33 - 36.

 

[Lawrose]

Pomeranz starts tonight. Make or break time for him. another bad start and we may not see him start again this season. But if he has a really good start then what? Makes things a whole lot more complicated.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Agree. Unless he strings a lot of good starts together, as of today I want no part of Pomeranz on the post season roster. Particularly in a series against the Yankees. He's been by far their worst pitcher.

Even if E-Rod or Wright isn't back and healthy, I'd take Johnson right now.

Patience Grasshopper. He’s got plenty of time to rediscover his form and if he does (which I’d give him a good chance of doing so) he’ll be a very valuable weapon in either the rotation or bullpen.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Pomeranz starts tonight. Make or break time for him. another bad start and we may not see him start again this season. But if he has a really good start then what? Makes things a whole lot more complicated.

No, it doesn't. You roll with your best pitchers and everyone else gets shelved/bullpen'd.

At this point it would take far more than one encouraging start for them to shake things up and go back to relying on Pom.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm not sure how tonight is make or break for Pomeranz. With the lead in the division and league overall, they can afford to give him rope and a couple more starts. Unless the suggestion is that Sale would be taking Pomeranz's rotation spot when he returns this weekend, which is unlikely. Johnson goes back to the bullpen before Pomeranz does. Pomeranz's spot is truly in danger when E-Rod returns.

 

[RIrooter09]

I'd prefer they leave Johnson in the rotation over Pom. He's been the more effective pitcher this season, and he's been better as a starter than a reliever.

 

[grimshaw]

Patience Grasshopper. He’s got plenty of time to rediscover his form and if he does (which I’d give him a good chance of doing so) he’ll be a very valuable weapon in either the rotation or bullpen.

Right - as I noted in the first sentence "unless he strings a lot of good starts together."

 

[Mike F]

Fair enough. Given that - it'll be interesting to predict who would start (say) game 1 of the Division series against the Yankees if Sale were to win the WC game. Could really be any one of the three. My guess? Price.

If Sox play in WC, and then play NYY who would have to have had the best record in the AL, the game would be in NY, not the best spot to start Price.
To say nothing about what an unlikely series of events required to cause that occasion.

 

[joe dokes]

Pomeranz starts tonight. Make or break time for him. another bad start and we may not see him start again this season. But if he has a really good start then what? Makes things a whole lot more complicated.

These things usually work themselves out.

Four weeks ago it was "what the fuck is Swihart doing here?" Now it's "damn, too bad he got hurt," and "OHMYGOD Cora is a fucking idiot for pinch running for Leon and creating the possibility that Dan Butler might have to catch a few innings."