The Search for a WR

mcpickl

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If 4 of the 11 defenders are watching White and Gronk, I like the chances of Brady staying upright in the pocket long enough to find Hogan/Dorsett/Patterson with only 4 guys rushing consistently.
This!

You want to double two guys and let Tom Brady know it's man to man single coverage on his three other targets, he's going to eat you alive. People are acting like these guys aren't NFL players. They don't have hooves for hands. They can catch the ball, especially when it's thrown right on the numbers from Tom Brady.

Also don't think you'll be seeing a bunch of three WR sets until Edelman is back. Likely a lot of two RB and/or two TE.
 

Super Nomario

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You want to double two guys and let Tom Brady know it's man to man single coverage on his three other targets, he's going to eat you alive. People are acting like these guys aren't NFL players. They don't have hooves for hands. They can catch the ball, especially when it's thrown right on the numbers from Tom Brady.
We'll see. Honestly, to this point Dorsett and Patterson have not proven they are NFL-caliber players, at least as receivers.

There's also the reality that some teams are going to actually have players who can cover a guy like White one-on-one and now the numbers aren't in NE's favor. If they're facing a crappy defense, they probably won't have a lot of problems.

Also don't think you'll be seeing a bunch of three WR sets until Edelman is back. Likely a lot of two RB and/or two TE.
That might be the plan but situation is going to dictate it to some degree. Two-minute drill, you're going three wide. Down by ten, you need receivers out there. In the Super Bowl, they played two snaps with multiple tight ends even though Cooks missed most of the game.
 

Mystic Merlin

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We'll see. Honestly, to this point Dorsett and Patterson have not proven they are NFL-caliber players, at least as receivers.

There's also the reality that some teams are going to actually have players who can cover a guy like White one-on-one and now the numbers aren't in NE's favor. If they're facing a crappy defense, they probably won't have a lot of problems.


That might be the plan but situation is going to dictate it to some degree. Two-minute drill, you're going three wide. Down by ten, you need receivers out there. In the Super Bowl, they played two snaps with multiple tight ends even though Cooks missed most of the game.
Yeah, this is right. You need to have at least three legitimate receivers if you're gonna run a consistently good 2 minute drill in the NFL.

They won't need that all, or even most games, but the time will come. Fortunately, a lot can happen between now and the stretch run. A guy or two can emerge and/or you can pick up someone in a trade.

Like every season, we'll see by Christmas what we're working with when the games get big, assuming, of course, (and we never should) that they'll be in position for a playoff run.

EDIT - I'll say this, though - would rather be wondering about receiver than offensive line.
 

Super Nomario

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EDIT - I'll say this, though - would rather be wondering about receiver than offensive line.
I actually disagree on this. They were fine last year with Cannon missing most of the season and Fleming / Waddle having to play extensively. OTOH the wheels fell off in the two games Gronk missed. The O struggled a lot in 2013 with the receiving weapons banged up. In 2015 they had a ton of OL injuries but things didn't come apart until Edelman got hurt. Brady is so good pre-snap, makes such quick decisions, and has such excellent pocket movement that he makes up for mediocre OL, as long as they're not a disaster.

As for the "bad OL getting Brady hurt" angle, a) I think this is overblown in general and b) he'll take hits if he has to hold the ball longer because his receivers stink. He took almost twice as many sacks in 2013 with bad receivers as he did in 2014 with a bad OL.

Also ... we maybe shouldn't be too confident in the OL. Wynn's injury hurts the depth, and Brown and Cannon are already dinged up.
 

joe dokes

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True, but here he also is rolling dice with the injury gods. It’s not just “meh” — it’s we could really be fucked during the first quarter of the season.

I’m sure there is a plan because he plans for everything. But he also is a risk taker.
He takes risks like that *every* year. Its really the only way to compete *every* year.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I actually disagree on this. They were fine last year with Cannon missing most of the season and Fleming / Waddle having to play extensively. OTOH the wheels fell off in the two games Gronk missed. The O struggled a lot in 2013 with the receiving weapons banged up. In 2015 they had a ton of OL injuries but things didn't come apart until Edelman got hurt. Brady is so good pre-snap, makes such quick decisions, and has such excellent pocket movement that he makes up for mediocre OL, as long as they're not a disaster.

As for the "bad OL getting Brady hurt" angle, a) I think this is overblown in general and b) he'll take hits if he has to hold the ball longer because his receivers stink. He took almost twice as many sacks in 2013 with bad receivers as he did in 2014 with a bad OL.

Also ... we maybe shouldn't be too confident in the OL. Wynn's injury hurts the depth, and Brown and Cannon are already dinged up.
That's fair as to regular season. But I think if we look at the last 10 years, with the exception of last year isn't it when the OLine gets beat that they lose in the playoffs? I'd argue that's the story of the Denver loss, both Giants losses, the Ravens loss, etc. So on balance, that is the group I fear falling apart most, and I agree with you it isn't clear what that unit will really be this year, either.
 

Jimbodandy

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He takes risks like that *every* year. Its really the only way to compete *every* year.
This. Yes, of course it's a bit risky. If 1-2 guys go down, he has to bring people in. It's not optimal, but you have to roll the dice somewhere in the salary cap era.

That's fair as to regular season. But I think if we look at the last 10 years, with the exception of last year isn't it when the OLine gets beat that they lose in the playoffs? I'd argue that's the story of the Denver loss, both Giants losses, the Ravens loss, etc. So on balance, that is the group I fear falling apart most, and I agree with you it isn't clear what that unit will really be this year, either.
Yes. The OLine being in top shape is important to the physical health of Brady. Him having to throw to Hollister and White more often won't kill him. But a defensive lineman breaking his grundle might.

Would people really feel that much better if Lafell and/or Floyd were brought in? Or better question, would people here pay Amendola what he just got? I sure as shit wouldn't answer yes to either question.
 

mcpickl

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Yeah, this is right. You need to have at least three legitimate receivers if you're gonna run a consistently good 2 minute drill in the NFL.

They won't need that all, or even most games, but the time will come. Fortunately, a lot can happen between now and the stretch run. A guy or two can emerge and/or you can pick up someone in a trade.

Like every season, we'll see by Christmas what we're working with when the games get big, assuming, of course, (and we never should) that they'll be in position for a playoff run.

EDIT - I'll say this, though - would rather be wondering about receiver than offensive line.
So you're complaining about the receiving group including Edelman? Not just the group in the first four games?

I mean, Gronk, Edelman, White, Hogan, Burkhead, Dorsett and the rest feels pretty good to me.

Also, I think you're pretty safe in assuming they'll be in position for a playoff run. They'll probably have the division clinched by Thanksgiving.
 

Super Nomario

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That's fair as to regular season. But I think if we look at the last 10 years, with the exception of last year isn't it when the OLine gets beat that they lose in the playoffs? I'd argue that's the story of the Denver loss, both Giants losses, the Ravens loss, etc. So on balance, that is the group I fear falling apart most, and I agree with you it isn't clear what that unit will really be this year, either.
I'd quibble with some of those (Brady wasn't sacked in the Ravens loss in 2012), but I'd say more of these fall under "any given Sunday," at least with respect to the offensive line. The OL wasn't a problem in 2007 prior to the Super Bowl; in fact, it was outstanding. They just picked the wrong day to crap out. I'm not sure these examples are informative when it comes to roster-building.

And at least in some of these examples, pass-catching weapons (or lack thereof) played a role. Gronk was not close to 100% in the second Super Bowl loss to the Giants. In 2013 Gronk was hurt again and Austin Collie was third on the team in targets (with Aaron Dobson and Michael Hoomanawanui tied for fourth). 2009 (a low-key terrible group of receivers despite Moss and Welker) ended with Welker's injury (and Belichick's prophetic "they just shade over the top of Moss and put a bracket on Welker and we're done"). In 2015 the OL was the big issue in Denver, but that game would have been in Foxboro if Amendola and Edelman hadn't both missed the regular-season contest with the Broncos.
 

lexrageorge

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With regards to roster construction, it's time to note that there weren't a whole lot of alternatives. The free agent class of wide receivers was mostly meh, and many of those became overpaid meh, which is not a recipe for success. I'm firmly in the camp that Dez Bryant is likely done, as is Emmanuel Sanders; receivers do fall off a cliff when they age. And a 33 year old Amendola wasn't exactly the answer either, especially at $6M cap hit (and it's not clear he wanted to stay here any longer anyway). They had quite a few holes to fill while not exactly blessed with tons of cap space, so I can't really fault them for going with value guys here.

If there is reason to be potentially disappointed, it's the fact that the Pats did not use any of their key 2018 draft capital (2 firsts and 2 seconds) to upgrade the position. At the same time, I cannot really fault Belichick for passing on guys he perhaps wasn't thrilled with and instead upgrading other key positions of need with players that many here felt were great picks at the time. Unfortunately, their top 2 draft picks got hurt, which is not something that could have been easily predicted or avoided.

Finally, to address a point a couple of posters upthread had noted, the 2015 team struggled offensively after Solder got hurt, even when Gronk and Edelman returned to health. Can't really blame them for attempting to fill the hole left at LT by Solder's departure. Again, it just sucks that Wynn suffered a freak, career threatening injury.

Anyway, I have higher hopes for Dorsett than others here; time will tell if those hopes are misplaced.
 

Super Nomario

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Finally, to address a point a couple of posters upthread had noted, the 2015 team struggled offensively after Solder got hurt, even when Gronk and Edelman returned to health.
Not really. Solder got hurt 25 snaps into their fourth game. The Patriots scored at least 27 points in each of their first nine games. It wasn't until Edelman went down in that ninth game that the wheels fell off the O. I'm sure Solder's injury didn't help (nor did injuries to Dion Lewis, LeGarrett Blount, and missed weeks here and them for Amendola, Gronk, Vollmer, and others), but Edelman's injury was the dividing line between effective O and ineffective. And the O was really good in the divisional round against the Chiefs when Edelman returned, though it stunk against an all-time Denver D in the AFCCG.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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What would it take to land Golden Tate? A 2nd feels too rich (even discounted for being a Pats' 2nd), but a third seems light.

Plus the whole aligning him with TB12 and fitting him in the cap thing.
 

DJnVa

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They have a game in 5 days. They knew what the WR corps would look like for a while. I have to imagine if it hasn't happened yet it's not going to. At least with a WR at Tate's level.

(if it does happen, I totally meant this as a reverse jinx)
 

BigSoxFan

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They have a game in 5 days. They knew what the WR corps would look like for a while. I have to imagine if it hasn't happened yet it's not going to. At least with a WR at Tate's level.

(if it does happen, I totally meant this as a reverse jinx)
Yup. I highly doubt a meaningful trade is coming. I think they're confident that Dorsett/Patterson will step up and when Edelman returns, they're comfortable with Edelman/Hogan/Dorsett in 3 WR sets. If there is an injury to Hogan or Dorsett in the first month, then who knows what they'll do. Maybe a guy like Britt or Matthews returns. Maybe they sign Dez (pretty please...). Or maybe they sign Mallett and finally complete the Fitzgerald trade.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Can White line up as a WR? I would think his low center of gravity makes it so he's not anything like a prototypical wide out, but I'm assuming they have something in the works until Edelman can play.
 

Jimbodandy

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Can White line up as a WR? I would think his low center of gravity makes it so he's not anything like a prototypical wide out, but I'm assuming they have something in the works until Edelman can play.
You will likely see RBs and TEs lined up wide more often than usual, at least in the first four games. White will be one of those doing it.
 

Super Nomario

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The problem is that White and Hollister aren't anything special against CBs. They are a great match up against LB in the slot, but you can't just slide them into Edelman's role.
 

BaseballJones

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The problem is that White and Hollister aren't anything special against CBs. They are a great match up against LB in the slot, but you can't just slide them into Edelman's role.
This. I love White against a LB - he eats them alive. But White against a decent CB is a totally different thing.

But the Eagles just won the Super Bowl with a corps of not-so-great receivers. Not bad, but not great. They had a great TE, a really good coach, decent receivers, a sterling offensive line, and a red-hot QB (Foles was unbelievable during last year's playoff run). They also had a good defense that got absolutely smoked by the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but it didn't matter because their offense played at such a high level. The Patriots have a great TE, the best coach of all time, decent receivers, a good offensive line, and the best QB of all time. They also have a potentially pretty good defense, though the jury is still out on that.

That's plenty for them to have a really good season. Unfortunately, around here, that's not nearly good enough. It's basically Lombardi or bust, fair or not.
 

Captaincoop

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Would they be asking White or Hollister to slide into Edelman's role?

Hogan and Dorsett are the two primary wide receivers. Then Patterson factors in. You'd only have White or Hollister out wide in a 4-WR look, so they're probably not matching up against a CB.
 

Super Nomario

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But the Eagles just won the Super Bowl with a corps of not-so-great receivers. Not bad, but not great.
Alshon Jeffery is a really good player and was a difference-maker in the Super Bowl. But the key for Philly's WR corps is that it was extremely healthy. Jeffery, Agholor, Torrey Smith, and fourth receiver Mack Hollins all played 16 games, and Ertz missed only two. If you told me Edelman (after he returns), Hogan, Dorsett, and Gronk would stay healthy all year, I would be a lot less concerned.

Would they be asking White or Hollister to slide into Edelman's role?

Hogan and Dorsett are the two primary wide receivers. Then Patterson factors in. You'd only have White or Hollister out wide in a 4-WR look, so they're probably not matching up against a CB.
The key with both those guys is keeping the defense honest against the run. For the first four weeks, Hollister is probably playing mostly at Patterson's expense in two-TE sets. Are defenses going to treat him like a TE and match up with base D? Or are they going to stay in nickel and dare the Pats to run the ball? Same thing with White, who has not been much of a threat to run the ball in his NFL career. When he's on the field (which is mostly in passing situations anyway), teams are not likely to respect the run.
 

Captaincoop

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If the Pats have 5 offensive linemen and Gronk on the field, they can run the ball against any nickel D in the NFL, right? Especially if Hill and/or Michel are as advertised.
 

Jimbodandy

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The problem is that White and Hollister aren't anything special against CBs. They are a great match up against LB in the slot, but you can't just slide them into Edelman's role.
I certainly wasn't suggesting that.

White and/or a TE will split out when the defense is right for that look, and they'll abuse that like they have for years now. And when the defense plays light, I think that they will run. McD has a plan, or BB wouldn't likely have left him a little short in the WR department.
 

Super Nomario

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If the Pats have 5 offensive linemen and Gronk on the field, they can run the ball against any nickel D in the NFL, right? Especially if Hill and/or Michel are as advertised.
One of the scenarios we were talking about was White on the field, in which case Hill or Michel in all likelihood wouldn't be. But no, I don't think they can run against any nickel D. Some yes, maybe most yes, but there are going to be games where they can't.

White and/or a TE will split out when the defense is right for that look, and they'll abuse that like they have for years now. And when the defense plays light, I think that they will run.
Yes, I agree; that's stuff they always do. I don't think we'll see more of it because Edelman's out, however; I think they'll do it when they like the look or matchup and won't when they don't. If anything, it might be harder to get guys like White favorable looks without Edelman drawing attention.

McD has a plan, or BB wouldn't likely have left him a little short in the WR department.
One of Belichick's favorite quotes is Dwight Eisenhower's "plans are useless, but planning is indispensable." I think they will prepare a bunch of different scenarios and be ready to move on to plans B, C, and D quickly if plan A isn't working, because with this group plan A is a lot less of a certainty than it usually is. Like with the OL in 2014, there might be some struggles before they find combinations that work.

At the end of the day, assuming they've got Gronk / Hogan / Dorsett as the top three, they've got some options for the last two skill players between four pretty interesting, different, versatile RBs, two TE who offer pretty different skill sets, and Patterson. That's not a strong group but at least there are options for different matchups. What's scary is if Dorsett is bad; the whole thing kind of falls apart, at least until Edelman gets back.
 

Jimbodandy

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One of Belichick's favorite quotes is Dwight Eisenhower's "plans are useless, but planning is indispensable." I think they will prepare a bunch of different scenarios and be ready to move on to plans B, C, and D quickly if plan A isn't working, because with this group plan A is a lot less of a certainty than it usually is. Like with the OL in 2014, there might be some struggles before they find combinations that work.

At the end of the day, assuming they've got Gronk / Hogan / Dorsett as the top three, they've got some options for the last two skill players between four pretty interesting, different, versatile RBs, two TE who offer pretty different skill sets, and Patterson. That's not a strong group but at least there are options for different matchups. What's scary is if Dorsett is bad; the whole thing kind of falls apart, at least until Edelman gets back.
Well said.
 

normstalls

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Partially kidding, but partially fascinating. I recognize that the skills don't translate, but sure would be interesting to bring this dude in for a workout.
 

InstaFace

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So having made two pretty big additions to the WR corps, BleacherReport is now calling Dorsett the player from the Pats who "should be traded":

It's too early to say whether wideout Josh Gordon has put his career back on track, as he's appeared in no more than five games in a season since 2013. However, the 27-year-old showed encouraging flashes when he scored on quarterback Tom Brady's 500th touchdown pass against the Colts in Week 5.

There's no denying wide receiver Phillip Dorsett has performed well during his second season in New England. He's caught 19 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns, which ranks third on the team in both categories.

If Gordon stays on the field from here on out, Dorsett would likely see an inevitable dip in targets and production, especially with Julian Edelman now back in action as well.

Dorsett is set to become an unrestricted free agent after the season, so the Patriots may decide to recoup an asset for him in a trade rather than losing him for nothing in March. Thus far, he's logged a career-best catch rate of 79.2 percent, which could pique the interest of receiver-needy teams.

Potential landing spots: Seahawks, Titans, Eagles
I'd say that any receiver who earns Brady's trust shouldn't go anywhere, but there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue here - you can't get valuable enough to be traded without being out there performing to a certain level in the first place. Would he be worth more as a Patriot or in what his trade could bring us in return? I'm not positive right now.
 

EL Jeffe

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Trading Dorsett makes zero sense to me. Gordon is likely still dealing with lingering hamstring issues (and is a massive off-field risk), Hogan had a thigh issue pop up (hey now) and has been massively under-performing all year (dating back to camp, and Patterson is essentially a 2-route gimmick receiver.

If there's a trade candidate, Eric Rowe makes much more sense to me. McCourty has been very good opposite Gilmore, Jones is locked in as the nickel/slot corner and JC Jackson looks promising as the depth 4th corner (with Crossen 5th). In a corner-needy league, Rowe would have a market. (It'd be a modest return back for him, but he seems like a fairly obvious candidate).
 

TheoShmeo

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So having made two pretty big additions to the WR corps, BleacherReport is now calling Dorsett the player from the Pats who "should be traded":



I'd say that any receiver who earns Brady's trust shouldn't go anywhere, but there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue here - you can't get valuable enough to be traded without being out there performing to a certain level in the first place. Would he be worth more as a Patriot or in what his trade could bring us in return? I'm not positive right now.
Well Josh Gordon doesn't appear to be all the way back health wise and everyone with experience with substance abuse says that a relapse is either likely or quite possible. Hogan has shown us that he's not really a good first or second option. And as great as Julian is, he just got back from being off for a year and four games, so some kind of muscle strain would not be shocking.

In short, they finally have some depth at WR. Keep it.
 

dcmissle

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This is a football team, not the CBOE. I long for the day that Gordon becomes so established that Dorsett becomes a wasting asset.

This team, if it is to win meaningful games the beginning of next year, will not be doing so with its defense. Act accordingly.