The sixers and building a winner

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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So here's a 76ers question. Is Embiid going to get an extension before the deadline? Interesting that there was a rumour in September that his agent was holding him out of games until he got an extension - I understand that was quickly denied but it's an interesting rumour nonetheless.

I guess he's eligible for 4/$100MM (approximately). Does he get it all?
 

southshoresoxfan

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I really don't mean to troll but look at the history of predominately young teams in NBA history. Hell as recently as last year the T-Wolves were the sexy 45-50 win pick and how did that work out?

I love the talent. I don't trust the health and I don't think they're ready to be a .500 team/in the playoffs.

There's a plenty of ways the Cs can fail as well. As much as there is to be excited about w your squad there's not much pointing to this being the year they break through.
 

Remagellan

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So here's a 76ers question. Is Embiid going to get an extension before the deadline? Interesting that there was a rumour in September that his agent was holding him out of games until he got an extension - I understand that was quickly denied but it's an interesting rumour nonetheless.

I guess he's eligible for 4/$100MM (approximately). Does he get it all?

According to Woj, yes. ESPN is reporting the Sixers gave him a 5/148 million supermax deal.
 

Remagellan

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I really don't mean to troll but look at the history of predominately young teams in NBA history. Hell as recently as last year the T-Wolves were the sexy 45-50 win pick and how did that work out?

I love the talent. I don't trust the health and I don't think they're ready to be a .500 team/in the playoffs.

There's a plenty of ways the Cs can fail as well. As much as there is to be excited about w your squad there's not much pointing to this being the year they break through.
As my post suggests, I agree that it’s unlikely that they’ll go over the 41.5 number, but I was just asking for some civility from those coming into the thread. The thread was started by LondonSox, who is a fellow Sixers fan, so it’s not like the thread was created to be a place for Celtics fans to troll Sixers fans.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Shams added that it is one of the most complex trades in the league with pot entail to hit up to $178m if all the triggers hit.
Saw one report that Embiid gets the full $148MM unless he is waived and another that says that there are salary cap protections for PHI in case he misses a significant amount of time.

Anxious to see the details of the contract to see how creative the two sides are.
 

LondonSox

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More reports say it's complicated, perhaps the most complex injury and guarantee clauses we've ever seen.
So I don't know when we will know it all.

That said, I think there will be protections, otherwise it's a bit unclear what the rush is. If it's unprotected for the team I'd have to say it's not a good decision.
If it is protected a little you do it. I would give this to embiid over Wiggins 99/100 and I actually think this all makes sense.
They've been super cautious with him this offseason and this means he's not pushing himself early due to money.

If it was unprotected I'd still be ok with it, but would rather wait.
If it's what I think fine. He's your stud.

Now after Bynum, it's a little scary. But on talent it's an easy call.

I expect Covington to be extended when he can, and then them to make sure they have a max, which probably means bye bye sauce (we shall see, but korkmaz seems a potential better solution). I think okafor will go or they won't pick up his option.

I need to do some work to see how close that gets them and other moving parts (eg cap holds for amir and redick).
 

HomeRunBaker

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They've been super cautious with him this offseason and this means he's not pushing himself early due to money.
Anything to the rumor that it wasn't Philly shutting him down but rather it was his representation until an extension was signed? Makes sense if it were the latter too.


I think okafor will go or they won't pick up his option.
Really? It is surprising you feel this way. Care to elaborate? :p
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Did not know that Brook Lopez had injury protection clauses in his contract so expect Embiid's extension to look similar.

Lopez's clauses: "What the Nets and Lopez agreed upon was a three-year, $64 million contract that guaranteed $19.7 million in the first year but included protection language that would reduce compensation in years 2 (50 percent) and 3 (25 percent) if Lopez were to injure the same right foot, not appear on the active roster for 62 games and average fewer than 15 MPG in 2015-16."

Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports had tweeted that the deal contains a 50 percent guarantee, though this post was since deleted but suspect that's in the ballpark.

So I would guess that there would be a declining percentages over the 4 years of the contract and maybe higher percentages for feet injuries versus regular injuries - like maybe 60/50/40/30 if he misses signficant # of games foot injury and 40/30/20/10 for any other injury.

Note if here were to lose 50% of his salary, he would be paid less than Mozgov, which is probably a good floor for both parties.
 

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More reports say it's complicated, perhaps the most complex injury and guarantee clauses we've ever seen.
So I don't know when we will know it all.

That said, I think there will be protections, otherwise it's a bit unclear what the rush is. If it's unprotected for the team I'd have to say it's not a good decision.
If it is protected a little you do it. I would give this to embiid over Wiggins 99/100 and I actually think this all makes sense.
They've been super cautious with him this offseason and this means he's not pushing himself early due to money.

If it was unprotected I'd still be ok with it, but would rather wait.
If it's what I think fine. He's your stud.

Now after Bynum, it's a little scary. But on talent it's an easy call.

I expect Covington to be extended when he can, and then them to make sure they have a max, which probably means bye bye sauce (we shall see, but korkmaz seems a potential better solution). I think okafor will go or they won't pick up his option.

I need to do some work to see how close that gets them and other moving parts (eg cap holds for amir and redick).
Quick and dirty, Sportrac has them just under $60M for 10 players under contract if they don't pick up Okafor's option. Cap is projected between $101 and $102 for next year, so max space is $30.3-30.6M. They definitely need to renounce Stauskas/Redick/Johnson to get to max space.

Assume Covington gets what, $10M cap hit on an extension? That's $70M in cap hits, and they still need space to sign draft picks, or if stashed account for each empty roster charge of just under $600k. That's real tight against max space, definitely doable but they might need to move another contract. A lot depends on how creative they can get with Covington's extension using this year's cap space and whether or not the Lakers pick conveys to Boston or not. Still, if they're in the running for a max free agent they can make the necessary space without too much additional pain.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Embiid contract protections out. Woj and Marks article here: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20985023/joel-embiid-extension-protects-philadelphia-76ers-case-contractually-specific-catastrophic-injury.

The contract is apparently 35 pages. I was wrong above in that the 76ers are not protected for any catastrophic injury - they are only protected in the case of a re-occurance of certain specified injuries which I'm sure are painstakingly laid out in the contract (and which I'm sure will be fodder for good litigation attorneys if it gets that far).

So basically Embiid's extension is 5/$146.5MM which could escalate to $176MM if he is first-team All-NBA or MVP.

However, after the first year, if Embiid misses 25 or more games or plays less than 1,650 minutes due to one of the injuries in the contract, the 76ers can waive him. If that happened after the 2018-19 season, Embiid would receive $84.2 million of his full contract; after the 2019-20 season, $98.2 million; after the 2020-21 season, $113.3 million; and after the 2021-22 season, $129.4 million (approximately 55%,/65%/75%/85% of his contract, which means I was pretty close on the percentages)..

Note that if Embiid plays 1,650 regular-season minutes in three consecutive years during the extension, or three out of four including the 2017-18 season, then the protections go away.

A lot of this depends on the exact descriptions of the injuries but the 76ers got some protections (maybe less than I would have expected) but it's understandable that Embiid's negotiating team would want to limit the protections to re-occurances of past injuries.

Even though they are a rival, I hope the clauses never have to be invoked because Embiid is a true talent and great to watch, particulalry when he's not playing the Cs.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The Sixers sitting Embiid tonight for "load management". Seems like a weird time to sit him - PHI hasn't played since Friday - unless it has something to do with long plane trips or because they are playing UT (not saying those are the reasons). Since they play 4 WC games, I would think sitting him in one of the middle games makes more sense but what do I know?
 

Sam Ray Not

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Covington's a pretty legitimate monster, imho: 6'-9" with a 7'-2" wingspan, led all SFs by a wide margin last year in DRPM — third overall among regular players after Gobert and Draymond — and is currently putting up 18.1 pts per 36 on .644 true shooting. His 49.2% from three will obviously regress, but players his age do often improve their shooting, and for his career he's already a pretty solid 36%. I could see ~38% 3fg as a baseline going forward.

We'll see how the market plays out — there may not be a $18-25M slot out there for him — but to me Covington's a better overall player than Harrison Barnes, Chandler Parsons, Evan Turner, Gallo, Batum, Crabbe, and KCP, to name a few guys at roughly the same age/position making $17-23M. Heck, I might even take him over DeMar DeRozan (4/$111M remaining).
 

bowiac

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Covington has put up his career 36% three-point percentage with TJ McConnell, Michael Carter Williams, and Jerami Grant running the offense. I'm not saying he's Kyle Korver as a shooter, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him be around 40% for the next few years with Simmons and Embiid around.
 

LondonSox

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It's gonna be a scandal if Covington only gets $10M.
Note CAP HIT, the Sixers can front load the contract into this year's cap space and make it lighter hit on the back end when they might really need the space.
The assumption is that the extension is agreed and is just waiting for the date for when they can announce it.
If they can move Okafor, in a trade, even for nothing meaningful, they can front load it even more.
 

LondonSox

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I think Embiid has been playing a lot of minutes, more than expected, and the altitude maybe. It's a weird but yeah on a west coast trip a game off isn't shocking, it being first is a bit odd.
 

Manzivino

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Note CAP HIT, the Sixers can front load the contract into this year's cap space and make it lighter hit on the back end when they might really need the space.
The assumption is that the extension is agreed and is just waiting for the date for when they can announce it.
If they can move Okafor, in a trade, even for nothing meaningful, they can front load it even more.
The $10M/yr cap hit was just to make the math easier, but I did assume Philly would frontload his contract which is why I speculated how creative they would get with this year's cap space to keep the cap hit down. Even if they sign him to the equivalent of a 3/54 extension, they could give him $13M extra this year and get the cap hit down from 18 to 13.7 the next 3 years.
 

Manzivino

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Covington's extension is reportedly going to come in at 4/62 with a $15m bump this season, so the cap number on the extra four years averages $11.75m. Great deal for Philly, they're in a real good financial position the next few years to add to their core when the right piece comes available.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Asking this purely out of ignorance, and I'm sure it's been covered in the first 26 pages of this thread, but could someone explain briefly why the Sixers felt the need to trade up to grab Fultz when they already have Simmons or what their projected positions will be when they're both healthy and accustomed to the NBA? I mean, both guys you can potentially build a franchise around for the next 10 years, but I'm just not clear on where they both play unless one of them is moving to SG. Was/is there concern that Simmons foot could be a lingering problem for his career?
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Easy: Simmons/Fultz bounce Reddick from the depth chart. The guard distinction is blurred, much like wings on the Celtics.
So to me this makes sense with wings, but isn't PG where you want to have one primary ball carrier and distributor taking it up the court and running the offense? Does one of them figure to be more likely to move to the other guard position? Obviously Simmons has the length for it (or anywhere on the court), but he's also putting up like 8 APG right now.
 

TheRooster

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I have to think Simmons is susceptible to full court pressure from ball hawks like Beverly, Bradley and the like. You'd like a second, potentially quicker ball handler to relieve such pressure.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I have to think Simmons is susceptible to full court pressure from ball hawks like Beverly, Bradley and the like. You'd like a second, potentially quicker ball handler to relieve such pressure.
Those guys are so few and far between that you are never going to structure your roster balance to accommodate for this type of pressure. Any 2-guard can help relieve pressure bringing the ball upcourt in certain matchups but a Simmons/Bev or a Simmons/Brad matchup is an enormous advantage for the Sixers moving forward with Simmons ability to post-up, score in the paint, and/or recognize double teams for easy layup dumps to teammates.

To me, they are an awful fit as they both need the ball to be effective. It's like the problems OKC is dealing with and what Houston likely will when Paul returns as we saw this in their opener when he played.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Eh, part of what made Fultz the consensus #1 was his perceived value as a primary initiator. With the Sixers, there's no question that you want Simmons initiating, so you're taking a chunk of Fultz's value away right there and banking on him being happy and fully engaged playing off-ball. The upside is really high- if it works you've got an elite secondary creator and a devastating transition offense, so I'm not saying they should've traded down for a more traditional off-guard, whether a 3&D like Mitchell or a gunner like Monk, but I do think there's some risk with the fit and that Fultz's upside is lower if he's not the primary ball-handler.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Eh, part of what made Fultz the consensus #1 was his perceived value as a primary initiator. With the Sixers, there's no question that you want Simmons initiating, so you're taking a chunk of Fultz's value away right there and banking on him being happy and fully engaged playing off-ball. The upside is really high- if it works you've got an elite secondary creator and a devastating transition offense, so I'm not saying they should've traded down for a more traditional off-guard, whether a 3&D like Mitchell or a gunner like Monk, but I do think there's some risk with the fit and that Fultz's upside is lower if he's not the primary ball-handler.
The part that has to have the Sixers beating themselves up is how perfect a fit Tatum now looks like he would be at the 4 with Simmons and Embiid.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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The part that has to have the Sixers beating themselves up is how perfect a fit Tatum now looks like he would be at the 4 with Simmons and Embiid.
Ainge has said he would have just taken Tatum with the first pick anyways, so if you believe him there wasn't really a chance for the Sixers to take Tatum (unless we're thinking in terms of lottery luck or tanking harder last year).

Interesting to wonder if the Lakers would have gone with Fultz if he was there at #2, or would have gone with Lonzo anyways.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I can see smoke coming from London's ears from here and he is 40 miles away.

In short, if I have it right, his/Philly's view is that the Sixers already have a glut of wings and that Tatum would be superfluous. Not saying I agree or that it's a widely held view but I think that's the argument for Fultz.
 

slamminsammya

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I can see smoke coming from London's ears from here and he is 40 miles away.

In short, if I have it right, his/Philly's view is that the Sixers already have a glut of wings and that Tatum would be superfluous. Not saying I agree or that it's a widely held view but I think that's the argument for Fultz.
He has also said numerous times he thinks Fultz will be the better player, even before considering fit and need. I still think that is very possible. People are a bit overly reactive to the performance of an injured player.

But Tatum does look amazing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ainge has said he would have just taken Tatum with the first pick anyways, so if you believe him there wasn't really a chance for the Sixers to take Tatum (unless we're thinking in terms of lottery luck or tanking harder last year).

Interesting to wonder if the Lakers would have gone with Fultz if he was there at #2, or would have gone with Lonzo anyways.
There was zero chance imo that the Lakers were going to take anyone other than Ball. He singlehandedly has LA excited about the Lakers again. Their Vegas summer league sold out over 20,000 seats from fans traveling from LA that first weekend of play to catch Ball. Magic knows marketing.
 

tbrown_01923

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Yeah - I think we are still "hold" on Fultz. At some point there will be some evidence as to whether he will achieve his potential (or even move that expectation) - we don't have it yet.

Tatum has increased his stock IMO. He looks more athletic, longer, and a better shooter than I expected at this point. I would still be happy with us selecting him number one in the draft. Prior to getting on the court is was happy with him as the Non-Number One. Any conversation on a redraft, that starts without acknowledging that Tatum is better than initially advertised, is one I disregard. Similarly, we need to acknowledge that Fultz has not been himself (for whatever reason), and we need to give more time to see how/if this resolves before passing judgement.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Sixers could have taken Tatum after the trade.
Ah, that's true.
He has also said numerous times he thinks Fultz will be the better player, even before considering fit and need. I still think that is very possible. People are a bit overly reactive to the performance of an injured player.

But Tatum does look amazing.
I think the question isn't just of absolute value or skill, but with Simmons emerging as the primary ball handler for the foreseeable future, whether you get more value from a wing than from a guard that plays with the ball in his hand a lot and derives value that way. It probably leads back to the old best player available versus best fit argument.
 

bowiac

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He has also said numerous times he thinks Fultz will be the better player, even before considering fit and need. I still think that is very possible. People are a bit overly reactive to the performance of an injured player.

But Tatum does look amazing.
Tatum ahead of Fultz is really a function of how good Tatum has been, not of problems with Fultz per se. Just taking BPM, here is the complete list of 19-year olds to have an above average BPM through at least 300 minutes.

Tatum's minutes are obviously very low, so it's fair to expect a lot of regression, but this is a very good list to be on regardless.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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I was really hoping not to make this another Tatum vs Fultz conversation, and was honestly hoping to hear more about how Fultz and Simmons fit together. I am coming from the same mindset as HRB that you're losing some of their biggest strengths if you're taking the ball out of their hands as the primary ball carrier, but obviously they saw enough that they liked to give up value to move up to get him.

Let's say this was a perfect world, and Fultz didn't have an injury and is meeting expectations of a performing as a borderline all-star. How were/are he and Simmons expected to play on the court?
 

BigSoxFan

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I was really hoping not to make this another Tatum vs Fultz conversation, and was honestly hoping to hear more about how Fultz and Simmons fit together. I am coming from the same mindset as HRB that you're losing some of their biggest strengths if you're taking the ball out of their hands as the primary ball carrier, but obviously they saw enough that they liked to give up value to move up to get him.

Let's say this was a perfect world, and Fultz didn't have an injury and is meeting expectations of a performing as a borderline all-star. How were/are he and Simmons expected to play on the court?
Isn’t the value having another guy who can initiate the offense rather than relying on Simmons, similar to Horford/Hayward for the Celtics?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Joe Dumars and IT. KG and Marbury/Brandon. Happens a lot.

I think the question is how much value does Fultz lose if he's mostly playing off the ball?

edit: Nevermind, I misunderstood the example but it still happens a lot and the question remains the same.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I can't believe this has to be said, but none of Hayward, Horford, Durant or KG are point guards, or true primary ballhandlers. They're great two-way players who can do defend multiple positions, create their own shot and pass decently enough to create mismatches on offense. Philly has a pretty damn exciting guy like that already in Embiid.

The questions regarding whether Harden and Paul would be effective together are more on point here. Obviously those guys are more of known quantities and Harden has some experience playing off-ball, but the same issue of maximizing value was raised by lots of people after the trade. I think Houston will be fine when CP gets back, for what it's worth, so maybe that'll be a best-case template.
 

EddieYost

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Couldn't it be as simple as they thought Fultz was significantly better than the field? Maybe they think he is going to be a top 5 player?
 

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Isn't the hope that Fultz can be Kyrie to Simmons Lebron? Fultz is best used with the ball, like Kyrie, but is supposed to be a pretty good spot up shooter with some development. Fultz could anchor a second unit as the dominant ball handler while playing off the ball with Simmons.
 
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