The terribly mediocre Lakers

djbayko

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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2 points(2-2 from FT line), 1 rebound, 3 assists, 3 TO for the #2 pick
I know it's early but given what Mitchell, Fox, and Smith are doing, and the flashes that Fultz showed, I doubt Lonzo is going to be the 2nd best point guard taken out of this draft or the 2nd best player picked out of the Pac-12.

I do wonder what he's going to do with his shot though. He tried to change it once during UCLA's Australia trip and it didn't take.
 

finnVT

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They might be 4th from bottom after december, but I think that bottom-5 is going to be hard to maintain by the end of the season. I can see memphis righting the ship just enough, but Chi/Atl/Dal/Sac/Pho are all realllly bad. My recollection is that 6th still gives about a 50/50 chance of the pick conveying, and that really feels like the best case scenario. 7-10 feels more likely, with some combo of Mem/LAC/BRK falling below them around March.

All of which I say mainly to prevent getting my hopes up for what this team looks like over the next 5 years with another top-5 pick in the mix.
 

Koufax

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Well if that pick fails we get to revel in the terrible Kings.
 

chilidawg

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They might be 4th from bottom after december, but I think that bottom-5 is going to be hard to maintain by the end of the season. I can see memphis righting the ship just enough, but Chi/Atl/Dal/Sac/Pho are all realllly bad. My recollection is that 6th still gives about a 50/50 chance of the pick conveying, and that really feels like the best case scenario. 7-10 feels more likely, with some combo of Mem/LAC/BRK falling below them around March.

All of which I say mainly to prevent getting my hopes up for what this team looks like over the next 5 years with another top-5 pick in the mix.
6th only gives you a 15% chance of conveying:

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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They might be 4th from bottom after december, but I think that bottom-5 is going to be hard to maintain by the end of the season. I can see memphis righting the ship just enough, but Chi/Atl/Dal/Sac/Pho are all realllly bad. My recollection is that 6th still gives about a 50/50 chance of the pick conveying, and that really feels like the best case scenario. 7-10 feels more likely, with some combo of Mem/LAC/BRK falling below them around March.

All of which I say mainly to prevent getting my hopes up for what this team looks like over the next 5 years with another top-5 pick in the mix.
On talent the Lakers are better and they have no incentive to tank, but you never know how chemistry will work and a team's season will progress. The Lakers have a potentially volatile mix in that most of their rotation is rookies or young second year players (Ingram, Ball, Kuzma, Hart) or free agents-to-be the team doesn't plan on resigning because they want the cap space (Lopez, KCP, Randle, Brewer, Clarkson has a longer contract but the team clearly wants him off the books). The former group doesn't really know how to play at the NBA level yet and most of them haven't gone through the grind of a full season. And the latter group has to be worrying about their next contract and future in general, thinking about how their playing time this year might affect that, and wondering whether Walton is unfairly favoring the young guys over them. Clarkson is rumored to be on the block, Randle and Walton apparently exchanged a few death stares in Denver the other night, etc. Meanwhile, Walton's seat could get pretty hot, particularly given the unrealistic expectations that the team (along with Lavar) created for themselves going into this season with all the ridiculous New Showtime talk. Maybe it will all turn out fine but it could also go pretty badly from a team chemistry and cohesion standpoint.
 

bowiac

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I'm not sure I understand this idea that the Lakers are better than Dallas. I get Dallas may want to tank, but they've been reluctant to do that under Cuban, and the Dirk farewell tour also probably will temper tanking inclinations.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Here are the odds for the pick conveying by Lakers' lottery seed:

Code:
Seed      Odds of #2 - #5 Pick
  1             75.0%
  2             80.1%
  3             80.4%
  4             70.9%
  5             46.5%
  6             15.2%
  7             10.7%
  8              7.2%
  9              4.4%
 10              2.9%
 11              2.1%
 12              1.8%
 13              1.6%
 14              1.3%
 

InstaFace

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wait for seeds 4 and 5, why wouldn't it just be 100% minus the odds of getting #1? I guess they could tie for 5th, but absent that edge case, isn't it guaranteed to be a top-5 pick and the only question is whether it hits the #1 exception? They either ping-pong their way into a top-3 pick, or they get the pick their record has "earned", right?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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While everyone seems to agree that CHI is the worst team in the league and I think most of us would put ATL at #2, I don't see how people are picking among LAL, PHO, DAL, BRK, and SAC. In particular, injuries could really tell the tale among these teams.

My view is that it's going be pretty fascinating to watch the 3-8 seeds play out. In addition to those teams, LAC and MEM could make a run towards the bottom if their key players don't get healthy.
 

Manzivino

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wait for seeds 4 and 5, why wouldn't it just be 100% minus the odds of getting #1? I guess they could tie for 5th, but absent that edge case, isn't it guaranteed to be a top-5 pick and the only question is whether it hits the #1 exception? They either ping-pong their way into a top-3 pick, or they get the pick their record has "earned", right?
If somebody with a better record than them wins a top 3 pick, they get bumped down. See the Celtics having the second worst record and picking 5th in the Oden/Durant draft.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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wait for seeds 4 and 5, why wouldn't it just be 100% minus the odds of getting #1? I guess they could tie for 5th, but absent that edge case, isn't it guaranteed to be a top-5 pick and the only question is whether it hits the #1 exception? They either ping-pong their way into a top-3 pick, or they get the pick their record has "earned", right?
Not sure what you are asking but full breakout of odds by seed and draft position here: http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
 

uk_sox_fan

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Currently 538.com have the Lakers finishing tied for 5th with the Mavs and Nets at 29-53 which would give the pick a 24.1% chance of conveying (ping pong balls are pooled and split equally between lottery teams with the same record).

C's play the Nets at home on April 11 (final game of the reg. season). Would be interesting if the Nets and Lakers were tied and the C's had their seed sewn up whether Boston might somehow let one slip away...
 

nighthob

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C's play the Nets at home on April 11 (final game of the reg. season). Would be interesting if the Nets and Lakers were tied and the C's had their seed sewn up whether Boston might somehow let one slip away...
It's going to be hilarious to see a starting lineup of Guerschon, Ojeleye, and Nader in the frontcourt and a backcourt rotation of Rozier, Larkin, and Jabari Bird.
 

InstaFace

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If somebody with a better record than them wins a top 3 pick, they get bumped down. See the Celtics having the second worst record and picking 5th in the Oden/Durant draft.
Thanks. So the spread (after the first 3 teams) for a team to get a worse pick than their finish suggests is based on the odds that a team below them jumps above them based on a first-3-teams pingpong ball. Or more than one team.

Some of the arithmetic seems a little surprising. Take the #5 team for instance. They have a 20.4% chance of getting pick 2 or 3 from the balls, a 26.1% chance of having their #5 stand, and somehow a 44.4% chance of getting jumped by one or more teams below #5 and getting knocked down to picking 6th-8th. Likewise the #4 team has a 17.3% chance of getting jumped by two teams. That just seemed really high to me, but I guess it's accurate if the conditional-probability math is done out, huh?
 

BigSoxFan

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It's going to be hilarious to see a starting lineup of Guerschon, Ojeleye, and Nader in the frontcourt and a backcourt rotation of Rozier, Larkin, and Jabari Bird.
I won't feel comfortable unless Stevens is also benched.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Very good for the 538 algorithm. Suns, Mavs and Nets all gained 2 wins for their predicted final record leaving the Lakers alone with the 5th seed and only 1 win ahead of Phoenix for the 4th.

Current YE standings:

Code:
Seed Team   Rec   chg
 1.   CHI  19-63  ---
 2.   ATL  22-60   -2
 3.   SAC  24-58  ---
 4.   PHO  28-54   +2
 5.   LAL  29-53  ---
 6.   DAL  31-51   +2
 7.   BRK  31-51   +2
 8.   MEM  33-49   +1
 9.   LAC  34-48  ---
10.   NYK  35-47   -1
11.   ORL  36-46  ---
 

uk_sox_fan

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Thanks - I do like the transparency of the 538 model (you can see the odds for individual games and thus track how much of the daily change was due to picking up a win, how much due to the team being assessed as better and how much due to sch str getting easier) but if basketball ref is more stable that's probably a good indicator of reliability. For the record right now the biggest differences (>=2.5 wins) between the two models are:

Good Teams:
Code:
Team bbfef 538 diff
 CLE  48.6  55 -6.4
 OKC  43.1  47 -3.9
 MIN  43.4  47 -3.6
 GSW  60.7  64 -3.3
 SAS  47.7  51 -3.3
Middling Teams:
Code:
Team bbfef 538 diff
 NYK  41.3  35 +6.3
 DEN  40.9  44 -3.1
 PHI  46.1  43 +3.1
 MIA  37.0  40 -3.0
 DET  46.5  44 +2.5
Bad Teams:
Code:
Team bbfef 538 diff
 ATL  27.3  22 +5.3
 BRK  35.3  31 +4.3
 MEM  37.1  33 +4.1
 LAL  31.8  29 +2.8
 PHO  25.5  28 -2.5
Will be interesting to see how those differences evolve. Looks like basketball reference is more conservative (i.e. good teams less good, bad teams less bad) which would explain its being more stable, but not necessarily make it a better predictor.
 

Spelunker

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How long have each of the models been around? Can we track their predictive success in prior seasons, or are they too new / tinkered with on a yearly basis?
 

InstaFace

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If the algorithms are published, you'd think you could write back-testing which would calculate what the projections would have been, given then-available data, at various points throughout various seasons, and see which correlates better with year-end record.

I've done this for various gambling models (generally discovering that my brilliant insight results in an edge indiscernible from statistical noise). It's routine in the systematic-trading portion of the hedge fund world. But it does require either historical data points (as you're asking for), or open-source algorithms.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It would make sense that the Lakers finishing with the 2nd worst record in the league would give the Celtics the best chance of redeeming the pick, but is that actually true? Would the better odds of that pick becoming the 1st lower the odds of the pick actually conveying? is it possible the 3rd pick is more valuable in that sense? Has this been explained already?
 

DJnVa

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It would make sense that the Lakers finishing with the 2nd worst record in the league would give the Celtics the best chance of redeeming the pick, but is that actually true? Would the better odds of that pick becoming the 1st lower the odds of the pick actually conveying? is it possible the 3rd pick is more valuable in that sense? Has this been explained already?
It's all right here.
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Looks like 3rd gives a slightly better chance.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Looks like basketball reference is more conservative (i.e. good teams less good, bad teams less bad) which would explain its being more stable, but not necessarily make it a better predictor.
Also looks to me like B-Ref is a simpler extrapolation of what has happened so far this season (basically, Pythag record and strength of schedule) whereas 538 may include more priors about "real" team quality based on previous seasons (incl. playoffs) and/or past ratings of individual players. At least, that's what I get from their big discrepancies on the Knicks, Hawks and Cavaliers.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Will especially fun if the LAL and BKN picks are the final two.

"And the number two pick goes to ... the Cleveland Cavaliers!"

[Sound of the Port Cellar committing hara kiri while London Sox exults].
 

InstaFace

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I would gladly sign up right now for Cleveland getting #1 (for the 4th year out of the last 8) and Boston getting #2. The Kyrie trade involved a lot of certain value coming our way and a lot of risk going back to the Cavs. So it works out for them? Let them come.

The fear, obviously, is Philly getting #1 (for the third straight year, good christ) and us getting nothing, and then a year later Sacramento has made a few moves and comes in at #10. And then Philly dominates the East for the next decade instead of us. That trade was like some complex options or derivatives construct, where it either pays off spectacularly or winds up in total disaster.

If things shake out right, we may need a SoSH viewing party for the lottery, with padding rooms and numerous boxes of tissues within arm's reach at all times - necessary regardless of outcome.
 

lovegtm

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The fear, obviously, is Philly getting #1 (for the third straight year, good christ) and us getting nothing, and then a year later Sacramento has made a few moves and comes in at #10. And then Philly dominates the East for the next decade instead of us. That trade was like some complex options or derivatives construct, where it either pays off spectacularly or winds up in total disaster.
? The Cs got what looks likely to be the far better player in the Philly deal, and also took away one of Philly's blue chip assets.

If Tatum is better than Fultz, the Celtics completely owned that trade, regardless of results, full stop.
 

bowiac

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? The Cs got what looks likely to be the far better player in the Philly deal, and also took away one of Philly's blue chip assets.

If Tatum is better than Fultz, the Celtics completely owned that trade, regardless of results, full stop.
Yeah - very little of that scenarios has to do with the trade. Yes, if Philly wins the lottery again, then they will be very well positioned with Doncic, Simmons and Embiid, but that was going to be true regardless of the Fultz/Tatum swap. That doesn't make the trade a disaster - it just means that Philly was exceptionally well set up for the future.
 

BigSoxFan

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Landing 2 or 3 would be such a boon for an organization that has been absolutely killing it lately. This team is perfectly set up for the present AND the future but the one area where we're not set up is the post-Horford prime impact big. If you can add Bagley or Ayton to this team to be Horford's understudy for 2 years, you'll be all set for the next decade. And then you'd STILL have a potential lotto pick in Memphis and hopefully a mid-round pick from the Clippers to add depth.

Landing Ayton or Bagley this year would basically be Ainge's F U TD and I so want it to happen.
 

lovegtm

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the LAL/SAC pick.
Yup, per bowiac's point, the Sixers were *really* well-stocked, and thanks to the Tatum trade, they lost both Tatum and one of their two strong picks.

The fact that there are *still* scenarios where they dominate the East for 10 years, even after the Fultz trade, indicates how amazing a job Hinkie did.
 

Manzivino

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In the scenario painted above, which asset was that?
Even in the scenario you laid out where the Sac pick finishes 10, this offseason it’s going to be projected as a top 5 pick. Philly lost the ability to make the Lakers pick and trade the unprotected Sac pick for another vet to help woo LeBron.
 

InstaFace

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Even in the scenario you laid out where the Sac pick finishes 10, this offseason it’s going to be projected as a top 5 pick. Philly lost the ability to make the Lakers pick and trade the unprotected Sac pick for another vet to help woo LeBron.
Fair enough. But my point was that the variance on total value received by both sides remains huge, possibly dependant on the pingpong balls. Even if Tatum proves better than Fultz in the long-haul, those are essentially "sunk costs" at the moment. What is undetermined is where we fall between these two extremes, which while unlikely are not inconceivable:

1) Philly gets 2018 #1, Boston gets 2019 #10
2) Philly gets 2018 #6, Boston gets 2019 #10
(...)
3) Boston gets 2018 #2, Philly gets 2019 #10

Between Door #1 and Door #3 is an enormous swing in expected future value to the teams, given the theoretical 7 years of team control, 4 of them below-market. That dynamic just isn't in play with the Kyrie trade (who is mostly a known quantity), or really any other trade that comes readily to mind* since Billy King. Ainge and Celtics Nation have a whole lot riding on those balls.

* I freely admit I know maybe a tenth of what Port Cellar regulars know about recent trade history, if that.
 

lovegtm

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1) Philly gets 2018 #1, Boston gets 2019 #10
2) Philly gets 2018 #6, Boston gets 2019 #10
(...)
3) Boston gets 2018 #2, Philly gets 2019 #10
Yup, some massive swings in future expectation are possible for sure.

Now, if you want to vomit, imagine that the Celtics have Fultz, Sixers have Tatum, and then text replace "Boston" with "Philly" in every scenario above. That's what Danny dodged.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Fair enough. But my point was that the variance on total value received by both sides remains huge, possibly dependant on the pingpong balls. Even if Tatum proves better than Fultz in the long-haul, those are essentially "sunk costs" at the moment. What is undetermined is where we fall between these two extremes, which while unlikely are not inconceivable:

1) Philly gets 2018 #1, Boston gets 2019 #10
2) Philly gets 2018 #6, Boston gets 2019 #10
(...)
3) Boston gets 2018 #2, Philly gets 2019 #10

Between Door #1 and Door #3 is an enormous swing in expected future value to the teams, given the theoretical 7 years of team control, 4 of them below-market. That dynamic just isn't in play with the Kyrie trade (who is mostly a known quantity), or really any other trade that comes readily to mind* since Billy King. Ainge and Celtics Nation have a whole lot riding on those balls.

* I freely admit I know maybe a tenth of what Port Cellar regulars know about recent trade history, if that.

While that is true, Philly would have had #1 in 2018 and #10 in 2019. It's also possible the 2019 pick is out of the lottery all together if the Kings miraculously improve. We don't know what the added value will be to the Celtics, but it's going to be added value regardless. It's a 1st round pick with a very high potential to be a lottery pick. A #10 pick would be slightly disappointing but it still has a lot of value, even if not nearly as much as the 2nd or 3rd pick. Tatum+10th pick is a haul for Fultz if Tatum is the better player.

edit: It's also possible Philly gets hit with the injury bug and we get their pick instead of the Kings but I don't see that as very likely atm. (assuming it's not #1, anyway.)
 

InstaFace

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I put #10 there as a placeholder for "Kings perform to 80th-percentile of their projection". They could certainly have a meteoric rise, though the odds are low. They could also crash and give us as good as #2.

Can you imagine if Philly keeps the LAL pick for #1, and then Sacramento hits rock bottom and Philly gets a fourth straight #1 pick, leaving us with their #26 or whatever? I suppose that'd be even worse than my scenario #1 above.

I'd also add that, sans trade, Danny probably picks Tatum #1, and the Phillies pick Fultz at #3. We lose the extra pick, but like Danny said, at #3 he still got the player he would have taken at #1.