The terribly mediocre Lakers

jmm57

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I'm very happy with they position they are in, just seems silly to me to get too excited about any specific names before we know if they are any good
 

nighthob

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Somewhere in a similar thread from yesteryear there is a longing for lottery luck to grab Harry Giles or Skal Labissier at the top of the next year's draft.
In case you missed it, and I think you may have, Skal played in the NBA last year. And pretty well at that considering how far he fell (and I really wish Boston had taken him over the Dancing Bear).

And no one longed for a high lottery pick to draft Harry Giles after his 16th major knee reconstruction a couple of years ago. He's been a "What might have been" since.
 

jmm57

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Do a search, this time and later last year there were multiple posts on this board projecting Giles with the top guys. Rabb too. Lonzo Ball hardly mentioned at all in these posts. I'm not citing anyone specific as its not meant to be an attack, no one knows how high school kids will turn out, but it's likely a lot will change from now.

And Skal is fine, but not what I'm hoping for with the Nets pick.
 
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nighthob

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Anyone longing for Giles with a top five pick last July had clearly missed the previous two seasons and can be safely ignored.

The 16-18 age range is a pretty big one in terms of player development (because this is the point where players hit growth spurts and the guys with early athletic advantages lose them and need to grow their games to continue to dominate) and Giles basically spent that time rehabbing from structural knee injuries.

So the real talk with him was "Will he ever be the guy he looked like he could be a few years ago?" And whether or not his athleticism would return enough for him to catch up to his peers.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I think generally if you look at the top 5ish high school seniors in the year before their draft, 1 or 2 of them are typically replaced by guys from the 5-10 range. Probably a pretty decent "hit" rate in terms of who ends up at the top of the draft, though there are always guys who fall way down or climb. I believe Diamond Stone, for one, was a top recruit entering college ball.
 

Kid T

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Celtics should tank this year. I don't want to choose between Doncic, Ayton, and Porter. I want them ALL!
After the Celtics won the lottery this year, didn't they pull a C's ping pong ball on the next two pulls (to decide who gets pick #2)?
 

nighthob

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I think generally if you look at the top 5ish high school seniors in the year before their draft, 1 or 2 of them are typically replaced by guys from the 5-10 range. Probably a pretty decent "hit" rate in terms of who ends up at the top of the draft, though there are always guys who fall way down or climb. I believe Diamond Stone, for one, was a top recruit entering college ball.
He was a four star recruit, yes, but he's also an example of something I harp on all the time, the 16 year old Diamond Stone was a man amongst the boys and beat his peers up. The 18 year old Diamond Stone was not, and hadn't grown his game enough to continue his dominance.

Lance Stephenson was the poster boy for this phenomenon, at 16 he was 6'5" 210, skilled, and more athletic than the poor saps trying to guard him. Two years later the other guys were every bit as athletic and Lance was just another four star recruit.

This is the problem with projecting Zion Williamson, he goes to a tiny high school, and the Division 3 high school players just don't have a prayer at slowing him down, so it's tough to figure out what he'll look like against normal competition night in and night out.
 

LondonSox

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The Lakers will be bad in a tough division but the nets are significantly improved in a horrendous conference so maybe a wash overall?

I'm so not excited about porter he sounds like Wiggins with an attitude.
Ayton I haven't seen enough yet, doncic I love but he's not athletic I'm not yet clear he's a first overall type guy.
But a good draft seems likely. Very big heavy (porter might be a 4).
 

BigSoxFan

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Millsap to Nuggets. Butler to Wolves. No chance this Lakers team makes the playoffs next year.
 

scottyno

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Millsap to Nuggets. Butler to Wolves. No chance this Lakers team makes the playoffs next year.
They'll finish closer to 15th than to 8th, even if no one in the west improved I don't see how they had a shot
 

amfox1

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They'll finish closer to 15th than to 8th, even if no one in the west improved I don't see how they had a shot
Agreed, and because the West is so much deeper than the East, and because LAL has so many games against the West, I would expect the bottom teams in the West to have worse records than similar teams in the East.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Orlando, too. Don't think people understand how bad they were in the second half last year. They were basically a .500 team until January.

The Knicks (especially if they deal Carmelo) and Suns will be just as bad if not worse next year, too. A lot of competition at the bottom next year, barring anything unforeseen.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Orlando, too. Don't think people understand how bad they were in the second half last year. They were basically a .500 team until January.

The Knicks (especially if they deal Carmelo) and Suns will be just as bad if not worse next year, too. A lot of competition at the bottom next year, barring anything unforeseen.
For awhile Orlando has been my sneaky tank pick for this season, but I don't know how a new GM will factor in. They've been a rudderless ship the last couple years including a truly disastrous 2016 offseason. Seems like it's really not a good situation there. They've already had a bad summer in that LA's lotto luck cost them LA's 2019 1st rounder that instead becomes a pair of 2nds I believe.
 

Auger34

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Indiana is going to be bad but I don't think they will be at the level of sucktitude as the real bottom rung.
LAL, Phoenix, Brooklyn, Orlando, Chicago, and Atlanta are going to be really, really bad.
If NYK gets rid of Carmelo for assorted flotsam they are in that bottom rung too
 

luckiestman

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For awhile Orlando has been my sneaky tank pick for this season, but I don't know how a new GM will factor in. They've been a rudderless ship the last couple years including a truly disastrous 2016 offseason. Seems like it's really not a good situation there.

Lowe and Arnovitz were talking about them and that team is an odd one. They are almost capped out, they suck, but when you go through each player on the roster they seem ok. Rudderless is a very apt way to describe them.
 

DJnVa

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I think the only team that has a chance at being worse than the Lakers is the Nets. Oh boy!
Imagine draft lottery night next year--we get down to top 2 picks and it's Lakers and Nets left to be revealed.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Imagine draft lottery night next year--we get down to top 2 picks and it's Lakers and Nets left to be revealed.
I think I would rather the Lakers pick get pulled "early" at #4 than have to deal with the stress of potentially not getting it at all.

Either way, odds are against it but I'll be rooting hard for them to finish at #2 so that there's only 1 way to lose the pick—agonizing though it would be. Given how the offseason appears to be playing out so far I'm still very irked by that #1 protection.
 

BigSoxFan

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Nailing 1/2 might be the only way we get New Orleans to answer the phone on Davis.
 

sezwho

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Nailing 1/2 might be the only way we get New Orleans to answer the phone on Davis.
That would indeed be a nice option on the table! Depending upon how the 2018 kids develop, we might even choose to keep the picks.

Ok...let me not get ahead of myself as its possible neither pick ends up being even top 6 by the time we get them.
 

Tony C

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I don't know that George Hill is so good he'll mean many victories for the Lakers, should he sign. I do like the approach of both Philly and the Lakers to overpay on short deals for heady, mature vets to help the young core develop.
 

Tony C

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Yep, no doubt...especially Lopez. But I think the aim here is more about development than wins, and obviously the Lakers don't have their pick so no sweat off their noses if they do. From the Celtics pov, I doubt Hill specifically will add too many wins in such a stacked conference. But, hey, maybe it'll matter at the margins.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yep, no doubt...especially Lopez. But I think the aim here is more about development than wins, and obviously the Lakers don't have their pick so no sweat off their noses if they do. From the Celtics pov, I doubt Hill specifically will add too many wins in such a stacked conference. But, hey, maybe it'll matter at the margins.
I think those margins matter when the pick has to fall between 2-5. 4 or 5 extra wins could be the difference between being the 4th worst team in the NBA or the 7th worst. Hawks, Bulls, Nets should all be terrible. The Suns and Kings are going all in with youth and could either win 20 or 35. The Magic have talent but no direction, and if the Jazz lose both Hayward and Hill, they could take a huge step back. If the Pistons manage to move Drummond and Jackson, they'll be especially terrible as well. Same goes for the Knicks if they move Melo, maybe even if they don't. The margins are going to matter.
 

ishmael

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Jamal Crawford prefers to play with the Lakers if he is bought out. http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/246740/Jamal-Crawford-Prefers-To-Sign-With-Lakers

not sure that really moves the needle any.
Most three point shooting guards will have a mid to late 30s dip when it comes to knocking down threes and creating shots. I'm thinking about guys like Derek Fisher, Mitch Richmond, Kobe, and Paul Pierce.

Would be awful nice if Crawford could hit that cliff for the Lakers next year, especially since his effort on the other end has always been suspect...
 

smastroyin

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So there is still time for trades, but looks like we have our basic Lakers roster now.

Our friend bowiac had them as the worst team in the league before they signed KCP. I doubt he moves the needle too much, but might make them odds on for second worst. Add in that KCP and especially Brook Lopez may be trade bait at the deadline.

As a reminder, Celtics get their 2018 pick if it is 2-5. Here are the basic odds of the pick conveying if the Lakers finish:
Worst: 75%
2nd worst: 80.1%
3rd worst: 80.4%
4th worst: 71.1%
5th worst: 45.6%
lower in the lottery: 15.2%, 10.7%, 7.2%, 4.4%, 2.9%, 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.6%, 1.3%
 

bakahump

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Does that come out to a 70% chance of the pick conveying? (I am assuming that the Laker finish worst to 5th worst)
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Does that come out to a 70% chance of the pick conveying? (I am assuming that the Laker finish worst to 5th worst)
Only if you assume their chances at finishing 1 through 5 are all equal. It's probably actually better than a 70% chance assuming worst or second worst is probably more likely than 4th or 5th worst.
 

InstaFace

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Weren't we just talking about how good KCP is in all the FA threads? Even if he doesn't exactly make them a playoff contender, doesn't he move the needle?
 

smastroyin

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You were, maybe. I certainly wasn't. I hate this fucking shit. Oh three guys agree, so now it's a fact. (I mean, I do it once in a while too, but I'm not being a hypocrite here)

Regardless, I think the point was more about the Nets being kind of dumb about how they are going about their entire team building. I actually don't even agree with that. Getting a couple crappy picks for taking on DeMare Carroll's salary actually makes more sense to me than signing KCP, and the bigger problem interfering with their pursuit of KCP was their poison pill offer to Porter, essentially begging the Wizards to tie up their cap space as revenge.
 
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nighthob

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Yeah, I don't think KCP moves the needle much on winning. Maybe it makes the Lakers a 26 win team rather than a 22 win team? He isn't taking them near the playoffs in that conference this year where even the bottom dwellers have loaded up. Minnesota and Denver are going to force their way into the playoffs.

Hell, as much as we talk about the Grizzlies as a lottery team (and they probably are), they're a fucking lottery team with two stars. Even borderline teams that are likely lottery-bound are going to be killing themselves to make the playoffs (like Portland and New Orleans). The west is going to be brutal this year.
 

ElUno20

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The Lonzo hype in LA is insane. Laker fans are certain they have the league's next #1 superstar
 

Kliq

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I watched the game last night and his skills are as advertised; great vision and his ability to grab defensive rebounds and initiate a fast break is impressive. He also couldn't stay in front of DSJ or Yogi if he was allowed to hand-check them with a taser. Also the Lakers SL team plays at an incredible pace so all stat accumulating should be taken with a grain of salt.
 

chilidawg

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I watched the game last night and his skills are as advertised; great vision and his ability to grab defensive rebounds and initiate a fast break is impressive. He also couldn't stay in front of DSJ or Yogi if he was allowed to hand-check them with a taser. Also the Lakers SL team plays at an incredible pace so all stat accumulating should be taken with a grain of salt.
He'll need to be paired with a defensive minded guy like Bradley or Beverly who can guard quick 1's, much like Magic was paired with Byron Scott. They'll also need to keep that pace up for him to be effective. Should be fun to watch.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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He'll need to be paired with a defensive minded guy like Bradley or Beverly who can guard quick 1's, much like Magic was paired with Byron Scott. They'll also need to keep that pace up for him to be effective. Should be fun to watch.
Caldwell-Pope is that kind of player, so the Lakers will probably deploy him against the better PG's. He may not be a long-term solution in LA, but he'll help make Ball look good out of the gate.