The terribly mediocre Lakers

ishmael

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Light week coming up for the Lakers, with a home game vs. Denver and then a back-to-back vs. two of the frightful four (Chicago at home, Sacramento on the road). Would be nice to see them dip into a bit of a tailspin right when the schedule picks up...
 

DJnVa

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Bleeping Kuzma is going to cost the Celts a shot at Ayton. Just let Lonzo shoot 25 times a game and it will be fine.
Their schedule gets really hard over the next month or so. Let's see where they are come January.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Their schedule gets really hard over the next month or so. Let's see where they are come January.
Unless the Clippers start winning, it's not going to matter. That would make 5 teams clearly worse than the Lakers, while another 4-5 are just as bad. It was going to require some luck before the Clippers shit show, with the Clippers shit show, it's all but the Kings pick.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Of the 8 teams with more losses, only the Suns have had a weaker Strength of Schedule. Also, fwiw, the Lakers' opponents 3P% is now at 31.9%, which is last in the league. If I recall Bowiac correctly, opponents' 3P% is largely random (with the consistently stingy Celtics being a possible exception?), so if that regresses back to the league average (36%), they'd be allowing an extra 1.2 threes per game.

All of which is to say that there's decent reason to believe the Lakers are not a .450 team going forward. The Kings, Suns and Bulls are terrible, but I still think the Lakers are in the running with the Mavs, Hawks, Nets and Heat for a bottom five team.
 

Cesar Crespo

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With awful teams, I think you should be more focused on the W column. The Lakers play the Kings tonight and the Clippers on Monday. They could easily be 10-10 and have a significant lead over teams like the Hawks, Bulls, Mavs and Kings.
 

DannyDarwinism

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With awful teams, I think you should be more focused on the W column. The Lakers play the Kings tonight and the Clippers on Monday. They could easily be 10-10 and have a significant lead over teams like the Hawks, Bulls, Mavs and Kings.
With 64 games left, I'd prefer to get more of a big-picture sense, rather than focusing on trying to figure out a magic number this early on. That said, I think it's a long shot for the Lakers' pick to convey with the three godawful teams I mentioned, plus four other really bad teams. Even if they were to stink their way into the 5th seed, there'd only be a 34% of the pick conveying. It's a good thing Sactown looks to be the worst of the worst and fully invested in the youth movement.
 

NYCSox

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With awful teams, I think you should be more focused on the W column. The Lakers play the Kings tonight and the Clippers on Monday. They could easily be 10-10 and have a significant lead over teams like the Hawks, Bulls, Mavs and Kings.
They were actually 10-10 last year before someone told Walton to cut the shit and get with the tanking program. No such luck this time.

Also Patrick Beverly is going to out for a while after knee surgery so the Clippers aren't getting any better.
 

nighthob

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With 64 games left, I'd prefer to get more of a big-picture sense, rather than focusing on trying to figure out a magic number this early on. That said, I think it's a long shot for the Lakers' pick to convey with the three godawful teams I mentioned, plus four other really bad teams. Even if they were to stink their way into the 5th seed, there'd only be a 34% of the pick conveying. It's a good thing Sactown looks to be the worst of the worst and fully invested in the youth movement.
It'd be hilarious if Sacramento drafted Porter given the normal recovery time for guys coming back with back surgery, because they'd really suck next year in that scenario.
 

Manzivino

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It'd be hilarious if Sacramento drafted Porter given the normal recovery time for guys coming back with back surgery, because they'd really suck next year in that scenario.
And then we’ll all have agita until the lottery because of the #1 overall protection. There’s a real chance that the Kings lottery luck next year determines whether the Sixers or the Celtics run the Eastern Conference for the next decade. Glad they flattened the lottery odds just in time.
 

cheech13

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They were actually 10-10 last year before someone told Walton to cut the shit and get with the tanking program. No such luck this time.

Also Patrick Beverly is going to out for a while after knee surgery so the Clippers aren't getting any better.
Not just a while. He's out for the season with microfracture surgery. I was bullish on the Clippers, but between their rough start and the injuries to Beverly, Gallinari and Teodosic I think they are in for a rough season. I could easily see them pivot by trading DeAndre Jordan and bottoming out this season.
 

nighthob

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The Clippers might represent a chance for Boston to recoup some value for Terry Rozier.
 

Ed Hillel

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Clutch loss last night to the Kings, though the big headline is Lonzo made a slam dunk.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Clutch loss last night to the Kings, though the big headline is Lonzo made a slam dunk.
I was actually surprised he completed that oop, he didn't really get that high up on his jump.
He really isn't that athletic for an NBA point guard.
 

LondonSox

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He's great off ball, the Lakers have no one to enable him to play his game, I'm not sure if either they or daddy understand. Well I am sure actually, they don't.
 

The Needler

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If he can become an average nba starter he will be able to print money.
Why? His good looks, or his loquacious personality?

The hype exists because of the belief coming in that he's something special on the basketball court. If it turns out that all he is is an average player, it'll die out quickly enough. It's not like there's something about him personally that appeals to a particular demographic like Tebow or Jeremy Lin. He's just a guy whose college numbers and blowhard father made people believe he's a potential superstar.
 

The Needler

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You answered your own question. Because of his dad.
No, I didn't. All his Dad's talking will mean nothing if the kid doesn't develop into something more than an average basketball player. Let's not pretend LaVar Ball has some kind of long track record of successful hucksterism. He's capitalizing on a player that was a top 5 college prospect and top 5 NBA prospect. Without those credentials coming out of high school and college, he's not a story and nobody's printing money.
 

Cesar Crespo

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No, I didn't. All his Dad's talking will mean nothing if the kid doesn't develop into something more than an average basketball player. Let's not pretend LaVar Ball has some kind of long track record of successful hucksterism. He's capitalizing on a player that was a top 5 college prospect and top 5 NBA prospect. Without those credentials coming out of high school and college, he's not a story and nobody's printing money.
If he's an average basketball player, he'll be incredibly overrated.
 

the moops

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He's great off ball, the Lakers have no one to enable him to play his game, I'm not sure if either they or daddy understand. Well I am sure actually, they don't.
I'm curious where the "he's great off ball" stuff is coming from. I just don't see that, and with his terrible shooting, the defense isn't going to have to stick on him in the weak side. I see a kid with tremendous vision and I think his only chance at being good is for the ball to be in his hands as much as possible.
 

DJnVa

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I'm curious where the "he's great off ball" stuff is coming from. I just don't see that, and with his terrible shooting, the defense isn't going to have to stick on him in the weak side. I see a kid with tremendous vision and I think his only chance at being good is for the ball to be in his hands as much as possible.
Theory is that he can't shoot in the NBA because the quicker and longer defenders give him no time. If he's off the ball he can, in theory, get more open looks, so his slow release isn't as big an issue.
 

lovegtm

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Theory is that he can't shoot in the NBA because the quicker and longer defenders give him no time. If he's off the ball he can, in theory, get more open looks, so his slow release isn't as big an issue.
I get the theory, but in practice in the NBA, super wide open uncontested looks are rare, so a slow release is still a huge deal.
 

LondonSox

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I'm curious where the "he's great off ball" stuff is coming from. I just don't see that, and with his terrible shooting, the defense isn't going to have to stick on him in the weak side. I see a kid with tremendous vision and I think his only chance at being good is for the ball to be in his hands as much as possible.
I don't mean don't handle it, but not as primary all the time.
He's a really REALLY good cutter off ball. He played with multiple ball handlers, and he's got so much to add as the extra passer. His BBIQ shines when he can read the play, by cutting or predicting the rotation to him and finding the open guy early.

He can't beat people off the dribble. All his finishes at the rim (I barely exaggerate) were assisted, ie he is great at getting to the rim from an off ball situation.
He's bad as a PnR guy, I think he can be ok here but will take time. So... what is going to do in the NBA? Can't beat his man in the half court, struggles in PnR and has a slow shot off the dribble.

Off ball I think his catch and shoot should be .... I mean better but that's a low bar right now.

Hope that makes sense.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'm still fascinated to see if they panic and start retooling his horrendous form.
If they do....
I think the obvious time for this to start happening is in the offseason.

I think people are overly down on Ball because he's having a difficult transition. But...
  • He's 20
  • He has a bizarre mix of strengths and weaknesses by NBA standards
  • In part because his Dad is a blowhard, he's been thrust into a high profile 'savior' role that he is not well suited for at this time
I think his problems are more of the "not ready yet" variety than of the "bust" variety.
 

wilked

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Above people speak about his slow release, and that ESPN video notes his above average quick release.
 

DJnVa

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Above people speak about his slow release, and that ESPN video notes his above average quick release.
Okay..slow release based on what he could do.

If he can somehow make up that release time, imagine what he could do without that 20% longer wind up?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's not the longer wind that is the problem; it's the fact that when rotating his arm to get in the correct launching angle, he doesn't really have much in the way of a margin for error.

The old shooting axiom used to be that you can be long or short but you can never be left or right. I think Lonzo is left and right a lot and that's going to be hard to overcome.
 

The Needler

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Poor shooting notwithstanding, he is averaging 7.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game.

The only rookies ever to average at least 7 rebounds and 6 assists are Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson. Obviously Simmons should join this club as well.

Add in his blocks, steals, and low turnover rate, and he's having a unique rookie season.
 

Gash Prex

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The Lakers have played the second to easiest schedule so far - bodes well for the pick
 

Ed Hillel

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Unfortunately, the Clippers might have lost Griffin for the season. The path was already crowded, so it won’t be easy. Without some luck, I think they’re going to end up in like the 7 slot next season, which is totally fine.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Unfortunately, the Clippers might have lost Griffin for the season. The path was already crowded, so it won’t be easy. Without some luck, I think they’re going to end up in like the 7 slot next season, which is totally fine.
It's a draft lottery. People keep acting like we have no shot at 2-5 if they finish outside of 7. Obviously we want better odds, but we're still in the game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Unfortunately, the Clippers might have lost Griffin for the season. The path was already crowded, so it won’t be easy. Without some luck, I think they’re going to end up in like the 7 slot next season, which is totally fine.
I'll make the bold prediction that Griffin dodged a bullet here. His foot wasn't planted which may have saved him while passing the initial Lachman test on his ACL and actually remained in the game trying to "run it off."
So he either has other stuff going on with the knee or a team doctor should be fired by the team and sued by Griffin this week.

Weird medical situation here.
 

splendid splinter

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It's a draft lottery. People keep acting like we have no shot at 2-5 if they finish outside of 7. Obviously we want better odds, but we're still in the game.
Well, they’ll have no shot at 4 or 5 if the Lakers finish 7th or worse, right? Only 1-3 are part of the draw, and then it’s by record. So LA would have a minuscule shot at 2 or 3, otherwise they’ll draft based on their position by record (or worse, if someone jumps them into 1-3).
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Well, they’ll have no shot at 4 or 5 if the Lakers finish 7th or worse, right? Only 1-3 are part of the draw, and then it’s by record. So LA would have a minuscule shot at 2 or 3, otherwise they’ll draft based on their position by record (or worse, if someone jumps them into 1-3).
Right. There is a big change in probability associated with the Lakers finishing with the 6th worst record (~15% chance of us getting the pick) versus the 5th worst (~46% chance). If the season ended now (with the Lakers 9th worst), we'd have a 4.4% chance of getting the pick.

Odds are very, very good that we're getting Sacramento's 2019 pick. Rooting for them to be bad (check) and stay bad next year (less certain) is probably where our energies should be concentrated.
 

JakeRae

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Right. There is a big change in probability associated with the Lakers finishing with the 6th worst record (~15% chance of us getting the pick) versus the 5th worst (~46% chance). If the season ended now (with the Lakers 9th worst), we'd have a 4.4% chance of getting the pick.

Odds are very, very good that we're getting Sacramento's 2019 pick. Rooting for them to be bad (check) and stay bad next year (less certain) is probably where our energies should be concentrated.
For Sacramento, we don't want them to be bad this year. The worst scenario is that they land Doncic, who is NBA ready and might be able to help them win games in a year. Any of the other top 5 picks are much less likely to be a factor in year 1. I suppose Doncic still isn't a lock to go 1, but Sacramento slipping out of the top 3 is the best thing that can happen for their odds of a top 5 pick in 2019.
 

DJnVa

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Ball has now gone 8 games without making a foul shot. In that time he's 0-4 and he's at 42.9% for the season.