2018 Tom M-F&^%$ing Brady: Still Proving It

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BaseballJones

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Brady's stats so far this year:

170-250 (68.0%), 1,876 yds (7.5 ypa), 16 td, 7 int, 99.7 rating

Four of those INTs were on tipped/bobbled passes. The one against Houston was deflected at the line, so let's call that incomplete. The one to Develin yesterday was ill-advised but went through Develin's hands. That should have been a completion (though ill-advised so I'm not gonna praise Brady for that one). The two against Indy were balls that were absurd that Hogan and Gronk didn't catch. So let's change the numbers to:

173-250 (69.2%), 1,915 yds (7.7 ypa), 16 td, 3 int, 108.0 rating

Those four tipped/bobbled passes that turned into INTs have cost Brady's stats in a huge way. Maybe he doesn't care about any of that, and that's fine. But what the numbers SHOULD be shows how high of a level he's still playing at.
 

bankshot1

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My eye test seems to indicate TB12 is not as accurate/precise as in years past. But I do not know if this is his fault or that for most of the season he's played with newer and less experienced guys who are still climbing a learning curve, I assume its a shared responsibility, and assuming stability in personnel, will get better.
 

BigSoxFan

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Brady's stats so far this year:

170-250 (68.0%), 1,876 yds (7.5 ypa), 16 td, 7 int, 99.7 rating

Four of those INTs were on tipped/bobbled passes. The one against Houston was deflected at the line, so let's call that incomplete. The one to Develin yesterday was ill-advised but went through Develin's hands. That should have been a completion (though ill-advised so I'm not gonna praise Brady for that one). The two against Indy were balls that were absurd that Hogan and Gronk didn't catch. So let's change the numbers to:

173-250 (69.2%), 1,915 yds (7.7 ypa), 16 td, 3 int, 108.0 rating

Those four tipped/bobbled passes that turned into INTs have cost Brady's stats in a huge way. Maybe he doesn't care about any of that, and that's fine. But what the numbers SHOULD be shows how high of a level he's still playing at.
He'd also probably have an extra TD or two so the difference is probably even higher. Definitely a good example of why context matters. I was a little worried about a Brady decline this year, and a small one may have already started, but he more or less looks like the same player to me, which is encouraging. His numbers are still very good but there is still considerable upside remaining given Edelman/Gordon and (hopefully) improved Gronk production.
 

bankshot1

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Eli is now at a career high 68.7% .

What's your take on him?

TB12 doesn't look as sharp to me as he has in the past. That's not a condemnation of the guy, I think he GOAT, but has adapted his game to age and available receivers (aka james White). He works very well with what he's got.
 

DJnVa

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Eli is now at a career high 68.7% .

What's your take on him?
That's he's been very accurate this year?

I wasn't disagreeing necessarily. I was simply presenting Brady's numbers. Perhaps there's a case to be made that he's less accurate, but the raw numbers don't show that. So if someone wants to make that argument I think we need to dig a bit more--maybe he's way up on passes behind the line but way down on intermediate throws. I don't know.

EDIT: And that's it.

He's down on throws from 11-20 yards from 69% to 61% to 58% and 21-30 yards from 45% to 44% to 27.3%

He's up on throws behind the line and from 1-10 yards.

We also don't have a full season of data and played a number of games without guys that now get 95% or more of the snaps. So let's see where we go.
 

bankshot1

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Yes I agree as that was the last observation in my post you seemed to disagree with.

And yes Opie is pretty accurate with a 2 yard checkdown. But completion % is an unreliable stat for QB profiency.
 

johnmd20

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Yes I agree as that was the last observation in my post you seemed to disagree with.

And yes Opie is pretty accurate with a 2 yard checkdown. But completion % is an unreliable stat for QB profiency.
Sam Bradford has the record for completion percentage in a season. So, yes, it's not the perfect statistic.
 

johnmd20

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Sam Bradford has the record for completion percentage in a season. So, yes, it's not the perfect statistic.
Or he had it in 2016 at 71.6% and Drew Brees broke it last year, with 72%. Brees is a lock to be in the hall of fame. Bradford is horrendous. It's a volatile statistic.
 

bakahump

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That's he's been very accurate this year?

EDIT: And that's it.

He's down on throws from 11-20 yards from 69% to 61% to 58% and 21-30 yards from 45% to 44% to 27.3%

He's up on throws behind the line and from 1-10 yards.
He's GOAT @ Checkdowns? LOL
I ked i ked.

I dont necessarily think they are "check downs" as opposed to designed 3-7 yard completions in stride.

It would be interesting to see how many "5 yard completions in stride" turn into 15 yard+ (arbitrary 3x) or 10 yard+ (2x) yac completions.

This seems to be (and have been for a few years) a function of the offense. IF* you can quantify that most 5 yard completions become 10+ Yard YACs (with slight chances at bigger plays) and you can quantify that Interception % goes down and completion % goes up on those type of throws (which seems likely) then this may be the most efficient type of play in football.

I watched White yesterday "just play catch" and thought "I cant remember the last time he dropped one". He proceeded to drop one about 5 plays later (he was 8/10 yesterday) but those are pretty good stats lol.
 

normstalls

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Tom Brady is tied for 3rd most wins all time (14) for games played in Buffalo. If the Pats can win next Monday, he'll pass Bledsoe and have third all to himself.
 

Super Nomario

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This seems to be (and have been for a few years) a function of the offense.
I think it was Josh Hermsmeyer I heard on a Podcast a few weeks ago, and he was saying that Air Yards are a function of the receiver. Which makes sense. When Brady had Moss or Cooks, he threw deep a lot. When he's got White and / or Edelman, he throws short a lot.
 

johnmd20

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Tom Brady's 2018 season year to date yards would be 12th on the all time Patriots list. It's a stupid stat, obviously, because the list is top heavy with Brady, Bledsoe, and Grogan, but that cracks me up a little bit.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah. We all know he’s good at that. We were trying to decipher why he seems off to some posters when his raw number was actually up.
 

DJnVa

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Tom Brady's 2018 season year to date yards would be 12th on the all time Patriots list. It's a stupid stat, obviously, because the list is top heavy with Brady, Bledsoe, and Grogan, but that cracks me up a little bit.
Yards per attempt?
 

DJnVa

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No, total yards.
Brady’s approximately 2000 yards wouldn’t be 12th all-time since he’s thrown for more than that 16 times.

Or am I missing something?

EDIT: Wait, I think I got it. That’s nuts.
 
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johnmd20

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Brady’s approximately 2000 yards wouldn’t be 12th all-time since he’s thrown for more than that 16 times.

Or am I missing something?

EDIT: Wait, I think I got it. That’s nuts.
Yes, total career yards as a New England Patriots quarterback. It's hilarious.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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Tom Brady is tied for 3rd most wins all time (14) for games played in Buffalo. If the Pats can win next Monday, he'll pass Bledsoe and have third all to himself.
I had to look this up. Is this NFL wins, because Jack Kemp has to have more than 14 wins in Buffalo. He won 43 games.
 

BigSoxFan

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I had to look this up. That is 3rd most wins by a QB in Buffalo since 2001. Which is damned impressive, but not the same as all time.
If you took just Brady's 31 games against the Bills in his career, here's where he would rank on their all-time QB list:

Yards: 7th
Completions: 7th
TDs: 5th

The highest QB rating in Bills franchise history?

Tyrod Taylor at 92.5!
 

bankshot1

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Yeah. We all know he’s good at that. We were trying to decipher why he seems off to some posters when his raw number was actually up.
Its some combination of aging and his receivers climbing the learning curve. But to my eye he is not as precise/accurate as he has been in years past. And to compensate he is targeting White in shorter passes. (so completion % increases).

As to #s, compare his various #s to other QBs this year, and he typical ranked around 10th or so. In most prior years, he was a top 3-ish QB in most statitical measures.

Inflation in passing stats are fucking rampant in the NFL.
 

SMU_Sox

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Evidence of a Brady decline? I’ve been wondering about this. He’s looked off this year. A lot of that has to do with his receivers but he is, to my eyes, missing more throws than usual. He hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t been as good as some of his contemporaries this year.
The injuries on the offense of course impact his performance. What do you all think? Is this the start of his decline? I’m not an alarmist and I have not thought he was in a visible decline before this year. I’m not convinced yet but I am starting to have my worries.
Mitigating or explanatory factors: age, health, and familiarity with/of receivers and health of the OL.
 

BigSoxFan

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Evidence of a Brady decline? I’ve been wondering about this. He’s looked off this year. A lot of that has to do with his receivers but he is, to my eyes, missing more throws than usual. He hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t been as good as some of his contemporaries this year.
The injuries on the offense of course impact his performance. What do you all think? Is this the start of his decline? I’m not an alarmist and I have not thought he was in a visible decline before this year. I’m not convinced yet but I am starting to have my worries.
Mitigating or explanatory factors: age, health, and familiarity with/of receivers and health of the OL.
I think the simple reality is that he has started his decline but it's more of a gradual one, which is perfectly fine and expected. He's still a very good to elite QB and can still carry the team, as we've seen several times this year. I'm less concerned about accuracy and far more concerned about physical skill decline, such as arm strength. To my untrained eyes, he still has plenty of zip on his passes and he's making the tough sideline throws pretty well.

I think the key point is that 3/4 of the league, and maybe more, would kill to have even a declining Brady as their QB.
 

Ed Hillel

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I’m not convinced at this point. He’s had some bad luck on INTs and he played four weeks with a pretty bad WR corp and now Gronk is all messed up. He’s also had a good number of miscommunications with Gordon, which get labeled inaccurate. It could be a slight decline, or just a combo of bad luck and new/damaged weapons.
 

tims4wins

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I’m not convinced at this point. He’s had some bad luck on INTs and he played four weeks with a pretty bad WR corp and now Gronk is all messed up. He’s also had a good number of miscommunications with Gordon, which get labeled inaccurate. It could be a slight decline, or just a combo of bad luck and new/damaged weapons.
I'm with you. I thought this piece was telling:
And there is a distinct pattern to his inaccuracy: When he misses on shorter, driven throws, he almost always misses low to stationary targets or wide to moving targets. When he’s missed perimeter throws downfield, the ball has been high and to the outside.
Um, hasn't this ALWAYS been the case? He tries to put the ball in a spot where only the intended receiver can make a play on the ball. It doesn't always work out but it has always been the way he approaches things IMO. I don't see any decline.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m not convinced at this point. He’s had some bad luck on INTs and he played four weeks with a pretty bad WR corp and now Gronk is all messed up. He’s also had a good number of miscommunications with Gordon, which get labeled inaccurate. It could be a slight decline, or just a combo of bad luck and new/damaged weapons.
True but he's also made more "scary" throws this year, IMO. I think it all depends on how people are defining "decline". I mean, he just came off of a SB loss where he threw 505 yards and basically ripped a good defense to shreds so even a small decline will be noticeable if that's your starting point.

The Detroit game is looking like a major outlier so far so I think any decline talk is pretty premature at this point. He has looked like vintage Brady for the majority of the season.
 

DJnVa

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I know it's not *really* fair to remove 1 QBs worst game and not the others, but Brady's QB rating outside that Detroit game is 100.7. If you kill those 3 weird INTs it's 105.4.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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It’s possible he is just not having his best season, for a variety of reasons.
It’s possible he is beginning his decline.
It’s possible it’s both a little bit.
It’s certainly not prime MVP level Brady but he’s not falling off a cliff at 41 yet, so I’m ok with it.
 

BaseballJones

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This was mentioned upthread a couple of weeks ago, but here's a comparison this year and last year:

Throws behind the line:
2017 - 91.3%, 5.67 ypa, 104.8 rating
2018 - 89.3%, 6.34 ypa, 110.9 rating

Throws 1-10 yards:
2017 - 69.8%, 6.04 ypa, 100.1 rating
2018 - 71.3%, 6.53 ypa, 89.4 rating (tipped INTs here)

Throws 11-20 yards:
2017 - 61.0%, 11.08 ypa,111.8 rating
2018 - 61.1%, 11.22 ypa, 123.9 rating

Throws 21-30 yards:
2017 - 44.4%, 13.33 ypa, 111.6 rating
2018 - 23.1%, 6.77 ypa, 23.2 rating (13 att)

Throws 31-40 yards:
2017 - 33.3%, 15.07 ypa, 76.4 rating
2018 - 25.0%, 9.50 ypa, 66.7 rating (8 att)

Throws 41+ yards:
2017 - 25.0%, 12.42 ypa, 39.2 rating
2018 - 0.0%, 0.0 ypa, 39.6 rating (3 att)

The tipped INTs factored into his 1-10 and 11-20 numbers. But otherwise what we're seeing is worse production on long throws (21+ yards downfield). But it's such a small sample size (24 attempts) that even one or two completions really alters those numbers.

So on the whole, he seems pretty much like the same guy he was last year, with some worse luck on tipped passes that resulted in interceptions, plus a little less accuracy on longer throws.
 

Super Nomario

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The tipped INTs factored into his 1-10 and 11-20 numbers. But otherwise what we're seeing is worse production on long throws (21+ yards downfield). But it's such a small sample size (24 attempts) that even one or two completions really alters those numbers.

So on the whole, he seems pretty much like the same guy he was last year, with some worse luck on tipped passes that resulted in interceptions, plus a little less accuracy on longer throws.
Of course he's less productive on long throws. Last year they had one of the best deep receivers in the game in Cooks, and now he's gone and they didn't really replace him. We should expect this.

I don't think Brady has played his best this year, but he's been dealing with a lot of uncertainty in his receiving corps. It could be the inevitable decline, but it looks consistent to me with his prior "bad" stretches like mid-2013, late 2015, 2009, 2006, or any other year where his receivers have been sub-par.
 

Jimbodandy

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He pretty clearly is having more communication issues and usual with guys making different reads than he is. That's some of it. Even White and Edelman have zigged when he was expecting them to zag in the last couple of games. I'm not sure how one unpacks minor accuracy differences with a read-based offense and a bunch of tipped balls.
 

TFisNEXT

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Of course he's less productive on long throws. Last year they had one of the best deep receivers in the game in Cooks, and now he's gone and they didn't really replace him. We should expect this.

I don't think Brady has played his best this year, but he's been dealing with a lot of uncertainty in his receiving corps. It could be the inevitable decline, but it looks consistent to me with his prior "bad" stretches like mid-2013, late 2015, 2009, 2006, or any other year where his receivers have been sub-par.
It would be interesting to see Brady's long throw numbers for years like 2015 and 2016 before he had Cooks.
 

Ed Hillel

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At least two of the 40+ throws should have been caught, as I recall. One was a flat out drop by Dorsett and I believe one was also the underthrow to Gordon Monday, which he really should have had. I’m not positive if that one went 40 yards, though. It was also quite windy.
 

tims4wins

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Edelman also dropped that pass in the Colts game. I mean, watching Brady in some of these games, he played really, really well. That Colts game he was outstanding. He was damn freaking good in the Chiefs game too.
 

BigSoxFan

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Edelman also dropped that pass in the Colts game. I mean, watching Brady in some of these games, he played really, really well. That Colts game he was outstanding. He was damn freaking good in the Chiefs game too.
Yup. Who here isn't expecting 325/3 against the Packers with Rodgers and the Sox in the house? I think this is a worthwhile discussion because the decline is certainly coming. I've only noticed a very small decline, which could easily be explained by other factors that have been mentioned. The fastball is still clocking in at 95 mph.
 

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At least two of the 40+ throws should have been caught, as I recall. One was a flat out drop by Dorsett and I believe one was also the underthrow to Gordon Monday, which he really should have had. I’m not positive if that one went 40 yards, though. It was also quite windy.
If it’s an underthrow it’s not on the receiver.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Tom hits all of the windows he needs to within 30 yards, where, frankly almost all of the reads and eventual throws end up going anyways.

I was far more worried about him circa 09.
 

BaseballJones

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It would be interesting to see Brady's long throw numbers for years like 2015 and 2016 before he had Cooks.
2017 - with Cooks, in bold

Throws 21-30 yards:
2015 - 43.6%, 15.31 ypa, 107.6 rating
2016 - 45.8%, 14.58 ypa, 131.9 rating
2017 - 44.4%, 13.33 ypa, 111.6 rating
2018 - 23.1%, 6.77 ypa, 23.2 rating (13 att)

Throws 31-40 yards:
2015 - 11.1%, 4.33 ypa, 5.6 rating (hahaha)
2016 - 25.0%, 12.83 ypa, 106.9 rating
2017 - 33.3%, 15.07 ypa, 76.4 rating
2018 - 25.0%, 9.50 ypa, 66.7 rating (8 att)

Throws 41+ yards:
2015 - 16.7%, 8.50 ypa, 62.5 rating
2016 - 33.3%, 19.33 ypa, 81.9 rating
2017 - 25.0%, 12.42 ypa, 39.2 rating
2018 - 0.0%, 0.0 ypa, 39.6 rating (3 att)
 

BaseballJones

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Lots of talk today on the radio about Brady's stats and how pedestrian they kind of are in this year's NFL. And it's true to an extent. Here's his current NFL rank in various statistical categories:

Passer rating: 16th (94.7)
Yards per game: 12th (275)
Touchdowns: 11th (17)
Comp %: 18th (65.2%)
Yds/Att: 17th (7.41)

Those numbers represent an average starting QB in today's NFL. Which isn't a bad thing. But it's not TOM BRADY.

But then let's talk about a few things. He's had no less than 4 interceptions be passes either tipped at the line or passes that went through his receivers' hands and into the arms of defenders - balls that should have been caught, without any exaggeration. In fact, on two of them, they probably could have been called fumbles by the receiver instead of interceptions because they were actually caught, the receiver took a step, and then the ball got knocked out and into the air, right to a defender. So technically not a catch, but not like a high pass that the receiver managed to get his hands on. These were balls that were actually caught and then coughed up.

So let's talk about touchdowns. The Patriots have scored 29 offensive touchdowns this year (6th in the NFL), 17 passing (12th) and 12 rushing (3rd). They've passed on 58.6% of their touchdowns (24th). Compare the Pats to, say, Indianapolis. Indy has 26 passing TD and 5 rushing TD. Or Atlanta, with 21 passing TD and 8 rushing TD.

The point is to put the ball into the end zone, no matter how it happens. The Patriots this year are (as hard as it is to believe at times) really good at rushing the ball into the end zone. So when they get down there, they often pound it in. The result is good - a Patriots' touchdown, which is what you want. But it negatively impacts Brady's stats from a passing perspective.

If the Pats had Atlanta's ratio, and instead of running it, Brady threw four TDs, his numbers would go from:

17 td, 94.7 rating
to
21 td, 99.0 rating

So we need to remember that. They've had a really good offense (7th in points scored, 6th in offensive TD), but they're getting their scores differently than in years past. Not to say that all is just peachy with Brady - he doesn't appear to be quite the same player, at least so far (still 6 games to go and a lot can happen), but he's not nearly as "bad" (i.e., mediocre) as the numbers suggest. And this isn't even taking into account at least three interceptions that Patriots' players actually had in their grasp before bobbling the ball directly to a defender for an interception.
 

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Just subtracting the tipped ball picks and adding them to completions gets his rating to 100, without manipulating his yards or TDs.
 

ifmanis5

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He's been operating with an OL that has been up and down, no NFL running backs, a broken Gronk and no WRs who can get open other than Gordon who is still learning the playbook and not close to what he once was. They've been resorting to gimmick plays because of lack of offensive talent. Brady started slow, started to come on a bit and then fell back but he isn't driven a Porsche this year. The talent drain, injuries and vacated draft picks have taken a toll and that has hurt Brady's numbers more than Brady's lack of execution.
 

jp9183

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He's been operating with an OL that has been up and down, no NFL running backs, a broken Gronk and no WRs who can get open other than Gordon who is still learning the playbook and not close to what he once was. They've been resorting to gimmick plays because of lack of offensive talent. Brady started slow, started to come on a bit and then fell back but he isn't driven a Porsche this year. The talent drain, injuries and vacated draft picks have taken a toll and that has hurt Brady's numbers more than Brady's lack of execution.
This is a joke. Its the Brady can do no wrong crowd. He's had a much worse OL and much worse WR core (2006 and likely 2002-2004) in many other years and there was no drop. I love the guy don't get me wrong, but there was average pressure on him last Sunday and he crapped himself and saw pressure when there wasn't. He missed several throws and has been missing them all year. What came did he come on a bit?(I guess KC, he was not good against GB) I have no life and watch the all-22 when it comes out. He has missed throws to open or relatively open WRs all season. Again my hope is more its the missed training camp and not age but it's him and not so much the talent.

I'm tired of the when Brady does bad its the O-line fault, the WRs fault, the RB's fault etc etc etc. He's done great things here, but facts are its been Tom Brady's fault a lot on offense.
 

tims4wins

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His stats in 2006 and 2013 were similarly pedestrian.

Also read Curran’s article going through every passing play from Sunday. Brady didn’t play well but he wasn’t purely at fault either. This is nothing new. Did they not just win 6 in a row scoring over 35 a game? Sometimes I feel like I am on crazy pills.
 

dcmissle

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They can do something about the 10; they probably can’t about the 34.

So the “decline” is relevant only to the extent that one is reasonable in expecting Superman to retain all his super powers at age 41.
 
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