Trey Ball

soxhop411

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On the surface, Trey Ball‘s performance in his first full pro season suggests a struggle. With a five-run yield in 5 1/3 innings on Monday, the 2013 first-rounder now has a 7.12 ERA in eight starts during which he has punched out 5.6 batters per nine and walked 4.2 batters per nine innings. He gave up two homers, and has now been taken deep four times in his 30 1/3 innings of work. Opponents in the South Atlantic League are hitting .351 against the 19-year-old.
 
Yet despite the appearance of struggle, Ball appears to be laying a solid player development foundation. As a two-way high school player from the Midwest whose seasons were far shorter than most other top prospects, there was the expectation that Ball would face a more significant transition to pro ball than recent high school pitching prospects whom the Red Sox have taken early (such as Henry Owens, who hails from California, and Casey Kelly, who was drafted out of Florida). Yet while the lanky left-hander has endured challenges in his transition, they’re also the sort of struggles that tend to be viewed as beneficial from a player development perspective.
 
Monday’s outing illustrated that notion. Ball got into immediate trouble, walking the first two batters he faced and permitting a double. But he got the inning under control, recording groundouts against the next two batters and then, after a single, punching out a batter to escape the inning. He then kept the game in check over the next four innings — working around multiple errors by his defense, showing an ability to control the running game while picking off a runner — while allowing one run (on a solo homer) before a homer and single led to his departure in the sixth inning.
 
Within the outing, there were plenty of positives, lessons in game management, impressive strike throwing (Ball threw strikes on 58 of 90 pitches, a 64 percent rate that is even more impressive considering that he walked the first two batters of the game) and the ability to work deeper into a game than he’d ever gone before. His fastball was 89-94 mph and averaged 91, showing steady gains as he’s getting further into the season. He’s throwing his curve for strikes with increased frequency (he threw six of seven for strikes on Monday), and he’s incorporating his changeup while learning how to pitch.
 
Though he faded at the end, Monday marked the first time as a professional that Ball had pitched into the sixth inning, and so in many ways, despite a less-than-stellar line, the outing suggested that the left-hander was building on rather than departing from his promising prior effort, in which he tossed five shutout innings on June 3.
 
Unquestionably, there have been struggles (some of which can be explained by Ball’s worst outings that were immediately before and after he landed on the DL for strep throat, some of which can’t) — but there are supposed to be struggles for high school pitchers going into full-season baseball. Henry Owens had a gigantic ERA in his first month in Greenville; another highly regarded prospect, Cody Kukuk, posted inflated ERAs in May and August of last year.
 
In short, the Red Sox are comfortable looking beyond the numbers to see the building blocks of a pitcher with tremendous potential.
 
“He’s been challenged at times during this year but has responded well,” Red Sox farm director Ben Crockett wrote in an email. “He continues to compete, maintain his poise and aggressiveness, while showing pitch improvement.”
 
 
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/06/10/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-looking-beyond-trey-balls-struggles-allen-webster-finds-consistency-rafael-devers-is-unstoppable/
 

Mugsy's Jock

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So...a couple of times I've seen the box score for a disappointing Ball start, posted my frustration that our (hopefully one and only) super high draft pick, and been summarily reminded that the sample size is small, Ball is young for the league, and you can't really judge a pitcher's performance from the box score.

But, well, Ball made his tenth start yesterday and the results continue to look like a concern. One of the ten starts was great, another pretty good, some others on the wrong side of meh. Six of the ten have at least appeared pretty awful, including the last three in a row. In 10 starts he's averaged less than four innings, has only 25 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 1.94, and has a BAA of .355. Been an extreme fly ball pitcher to date, which ain't great if you're not striking anyone out. Brrrrrr.

Small sample size. Young for the league. Crockett says his development is right on pace. But is sending him out there to get murdered helping? Would some time in Lowell ding his confidence more, or allow him to rebuild it?
 

Plympton91

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Remember, when he was drafted there was some noise that he projected as a 3rd rounder for his bat Maybe they ought to do the Casey Kelly thing and after he hits his innings limit let him DH.
 

Sprowl

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Marbleheader said:
 
 
Merkle's Boner said:
Jesus he's a beanpole. Also, that curve to get the guy was filthy.

And I love watching these MiL videos and hearing the announcers. I would have sworn that guy was putting me on with that voice.
 
I'm late to this conversation, but the video is Harry Caray parody heaven.
 
Regarding the video, I've never seen Trey Ball pitching before, and I'm very impressed with the 12'30 delivery. I've never seen such a long true over-the-top lefthanded delivery. I'm not exactly sure what prospect-projectors mean by projectability, but I'm thinking if this guy doesn't have it, nobody does. When he keeps the fastball below the belt, he's deadly. His curve looks promising too.
 

Puffy

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8 strikeouts, 5 hits, 2 walks, and 1 ER in 5 IP on July 6. 8 Ks is a professional best for him I believe. It looks like his appearance was complicated by 4 (!) Greenville errors during his 5 IP. Hopefully his last 2 decent starts are the beginning of a trend.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Speier had a good article on why Theo didn't draft high school pitching; ostensibly had to do with Henry Owens but could also (presumably) apply to Trey Bell.
 
In the article, there was an update to Trey Bell.
 
In recent outings, the 19-year-old has shown an improved curveball that has gotten opponents off of his fastball, resulting in greater effectiveness of both pitches. The results have been promising, as Ball has now yielded one earned run and eight hits over 10 innings in his last two starts. On Sunday, he worked at 88-93 mph with his fastball, a pitch that yielded seven of his 15 swings and misses; three more came on his curve, while five resulted from his changeup.
 
 

LuckyBen

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Good result last night for Ball.

Trey Ball went 5 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits and striking out 4, 0 runs, 0 walks.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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More encouragement from Speier after Ball's last outing here:  http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/07/26/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-brian-johnson-cody-kukuk-dominate-trey-ball-breakthrough-continues-feats-of-mookie/ (underline added)
 
Though left-hander Trey Ball absorbed the loss to drop to 1-8, the 20-year-old left-hander continued his run of strong performances. He permitted four runs (two earned) on six hits (four singles, a double and triple) in six innings, walking just one while punching out three. He recorded eight groundball outs while averaging 91 mph and topping out at 95 — a mark he hadn’t been hitting to this point in the year — and recorded five swings and misses with his fastball, a pitch that he threw for strikes at will (37 of 48 for strikes — 77 percent), on a night where he sailed through his six innings in just 71 pitches.
 
The month of July has thus represented a considerable step forward in the 2013 first-rounder’s performance. In 25 innings, he has a 3.24 ERA with 19 strikeouts and seven walks while holding opponents to a .196 average — a considerable improvement from the first three months, during which he had a 7.27 ERA.
 

mabrowndog

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Tonight's line doesn't look too pretty on the surface: 6 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K
 
It's just his 2nd win of the year against 9 losses and his first since his opening game on April 27. But it's the 6th time in his last 7 starts that he's allowed 2 ER or less. The exception was a 4-IP, 6-ER outing vs Augusta on July 11. Even including that, in 36 innings since July 1 he's got a 3.00 ERA and a 1.79 K/BB while holding batters to a .186/.267/.271/.538 line.
 
For perspective, in 43.1 innings over his first 11 starts he compiled a 7.27 ERA and a .370/.423/.563/.985 line.
 
He's certainly got some work to do (his walk rate over both stretches was the same at 3.5 BB/9, while his strikeout rate has only upticked slightly from 6.0 to 6.3 K/9), but he's on the right track.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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last outing not very good but just saw this interview - http://www.thestarpress.com/story/sports/2014/08/11/trey-ball/13892119/ - of Bell from his hometown paper. Here's the part that speaks to his development:

"I've been learning to pitch, been throwing my game. I've been, actually, just learning how to pitch, throwing what I want when I want," Ball said. "My changeup has improved so much the last couple months, along with the curveball."

The Drive's pitching coach, Paul Abbott, said he's also noticed a difference in Ball's recent outings. Abbott said he's noticed Ball has become more confident in his recent starts, something that has allowed him to pitch more aggressively.

"He's pitching inside, he's using his changeup, he commands the ball down in the zone much more confidently now," Abbott said. "I just see him growing as a pitcher."
He obviously has a ton to learn but hopefully the Sox are right about his make-up as he struggles through his growing pains.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Trey with another good outing: six shutout innings and struck out five with no walks. In five starts during August, Ball went 4-1 with an earned run average of 2.03.

Can't ask for more, particularly given his first-half.
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

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BA breaks down his see-saw start to the year:

 
So far this year, things have been uneven. He’s made three starts—all against Carolina—and has come away with varying results. He was rocked in his first start for six runs on 10 hits, including two home runs. Five days later, he was brilliant, working six no-hit innings with just two walks blemishing his ledger.
 
“He’s a young kid,” Febles said. “He’s getting a little taste of the Carolina League. He has three starts, three starts against the same club, and that makes it tougher. It’s kind of hard for young kids when they have to face the same team three straight outings. It hasn’t helped him it all, but with that being said, if you take the three-run homer out, I thought he did an outstanding job. His command wasn’t there (Thursday), but he made some good, quality pitches.”
 
His most recent start, this past Thursday, was a combination of both. He allowed just two hits over his first four innings—both to lefthander Eric Garcia, one of which left the park—before losing the zone and giving up a monstrous home run to Dustin Peterson on his final pitch.
 
“Garcia, I think, was sitting on that inside fastball, because I threw it right where I wanted to and he was just sitting on it,” Ball said, recalling Thursday’s outing. “He got the bat around it and hit it a long way. It was the same in the minors last year, too. It’s just something I’ve got to work on, spotting up my pitches the right way.”
 
Through the two road outings at Carolina, there were two constants that got him into trouble: A lack of command and the lack of a weapon to neutralize lefthanders. To that last point, southpaws in 2014 hit .299/.364/.474 against Ball, and in the three starts this year they’re OPSing 1.053.
 
Against righthanders, Ball’s changeup, thrown in the low-to-mid-80s and better toward the higher end of that spectrum, is average right now and flashes plus at times. He throws the pitch with the same conviction and arm speed as he does his fastball (which has sat between 89-91 and touched 92), giving him the ability to keep righties guessing. Against lefties, however, his curveball, thrownin the mid-70s, hasn’t been effective. It’s a loopy offering and has soft 2-7 break right over the heart of the plate.
He’s changed the grip on the curveball, from a spike grip to that of a more traditional curve, and is working toward his goal of becoming a more complete pitcher.
 
“That second half of last year, I really learned how to pitch,” he said. “I think that’s kind of carrying me into this year, and continuing to learn and get better with that. Not relying on my fastball as much (is something that he’s worked to change), just learning to use all three of my pitches and using them in various counts. I think that’s what really helped me.”
 

Plympton91

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A fastball at 89-92, a average change with the potential to be better, and a bad curveball. This was the best prospect available at the 7th pick in the 2013 draft?
 

Bigpupp

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Plympton91 said:
A fastball at 89-92, a average change with the potential to be better, and a bad curveball. This was the best prospect available at the 7th pick in the 2013 draft?
No, but he was the one with the highest upside. When you draft someone who is labeled as "raw" this is what you're going to get for a while. He's not a finished product.
 

WenZink

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No, but he was the one with the highest upside. When you draft someone who is labeled as "raw" this is what you're going to get for a while. He's not a finished product.
 
Yup.  And Jon Lester was a high school project as well.  Lester started his age-20 season in low A, before being promoted to High A in the middle of the 2004 season.  Although his K rate was 9/9, he was still walking 4/9 as well.  But in 2005, at Portland he put it all together.
 
I know some folks would feel better if Ball was progressing ala Michael Bowden with his superior age 20 season that saw him make 20 starts at Portland.   But Bowden's ceiling was always lower.  Glad the Sox are taking a gamble on a high-ceiling kid like Ball... whether it succeeds or fails.
 

Bigpupp

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WenZink said:
 
Yup.  And Jon Lester was a high school project as well.  Lester started his age-20 season in low A, before being promoted to High A in the middle of the 2004 season.  Although his K rate was 9/9, he was still walking 4/9 as well.  But in 2005, at Portland he put it all together.
 
I know some folks would feel better if Ball was progressing ala Michael Bowden with his superior age 20 season that saw him make 20 starts at Portland.   But Bowden's ceiling was always lower.  Glad the Sox are taking a gamble on a high-ceiling kid like Ball... whether it succeeds or fails.
And even Lester came from a warm weather state where he got a lot of repetition in High school. Ball is from Indiana and doesn't have the experience that other prospects his age have.
 

threecy

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Bigpupp said:
And even Lester came from a warm weather state where he got a lot of repetition in High school. Ball is from Indiana and doesn't have the experience that other prospects his age have.
Wasn't Lester from Tacoma, Washington?  The greater Indianapolis area is warmer than Tacoma.
 

LuckyBen

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threecy said:
Wasn't Lester from Tacoma, Washington?  The greater Indianapolis area is warmer than Tacoma.
 
Tacoma is far from a warm weather area, but on average Indianapolis is colder in the first three months of the year. That makes a difference for those early months of the baseball season, although no where near the difference in the southwest and most of the South.
 

chrisfont9

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LuckyBen said:
 
Tacoma is far from a warm weather area, but on average Indianapolis is colder in the first three months of the year. That makes a difference for those early months of the baseball season, although no where near the difference in the southwest and most of the South.
I'm a transplant to Seattle, and have wondered how kids here do. It's true that you almost never get snowed out of doing anything, and there are times in January where it's perfectly fine to go play baseball. So you don't get those late starts we had back in Massachusetts. Yes, the weather can and probably will kinda suck all the way to early July, so it's probably less fun than playing in Indiana. But the turf fields are playable practically year round, so no reason not to get in your reps.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Plympton91 said:
A fastball at 89-92, a average change with the potential to be better, and a bad curveball. This was the best prospect available at the 7th pick in the 2013 draft?
 
Ball has thrown harder in the past (he has been noted to routinely hit mid 90s) and projections are that he will end up sitting in the low 90s, which from a left-hander, would be great.  After all, in 2013 (according to Alex Speier) there were only 7 lefty starters that averaged more than 92 mph:  Derek Holland, Rangers (93.6 mph); Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (92.5 mph); Matt Moore, Rays (92.5 mph); Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (92.4 mph); Jon Lester, Red Sox (92.4 mph); and Chris Sale, White Sox (92.3 mph).
 
Also the fact that Ball is trying to refine all three of his pitches and throwing them in various counts to me is better than just concentrating on getting guys out (for example, Michael Kopech apparently threw 95% fastballs in his last outing).  I'm sure the Sox are worried more about the break on his curve ball than his ERA or hits allowed. 
 
There's obviously good odds that Ball will be a complete bust, but if the Sox are able to develop him, it would be great.
 

Bigpupp

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threecy said:
Wasn't Lester from Tacoma, Washington?  The greater Indianapolis area is warmer than Tacoma.
You're absolutely right. I was thinking Georgia, but he grew up in Washington and now lives in Georgia.
 

gryoung

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Ball has thrown harder in the past (he has been noted to routinely hit mid 90s) and projections are that he will end up sitting in the low 90s, which from a left-hander, would be great.  After all, in 2013 (according to Alex Speier) there were only 7 lefty starters that averaged more than 92 mph:  Derek Holland, Rangers (93.6 mph); Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (92.5 mph); Matt Moore, Rays (92.5 mph); Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (92.4 mph); Jon Lester, Red Sox (92.4 mph); and Chris Sale, White Sox (92.3 mph).
 
Also the fact that Ball is trying to refine all three of his pitches and throwing them in various counts to me is better than just concentrating on getting guys out (for example, Michael Kopech apparently threw 95% fastballs in his last outing).  I'm sure the Sox are worried more about the break on his curve ball than his ERA or hits allowed. 
 
There's obviously good odds that Ball will be a complete bust, but if the Sox are able to develop him, it would be great.
The preferred course would be he continues to develop as a pitcher and has a solid pro career as a starter. But, is converting him to an OF a plan B? He was a productive hitter also coming into the draft I recall. Just wondering.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The preferred course would be he continues to develop as a pitcher and has a solid pro career as a starter. But, is converting him to an OF a plan B? He was a productive hitter also coming into the draft I recall. Just wondering.
If he washes out as a pitcher, I'm sure he'll take the opportunity to try to make it as an OF. There'sonviously precedent for that.

Was a blurb on him in Glob last week here: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/05/28/red-sox-have-long-term-vision-for-trey-ball/iK8mcsJqIvgmurPDEih8jL/story.html. Two takeaways.

First, and most important, he'd be just finishing his sophomore year in college so there's still time,

Second:

At times, there are flashes of what Ball might become. He works primarily with an 89-92-mile- per-hour fastball that has touched 94, but with plenty of room to fill out, Ball — who has gone from 167 pounds at signing to roughly 200 now — could see more velocity gains. Already, the angle he creates with his fastball can make it an impressive pitch with the late life that draws bad contact, even if it has yet to play as a swing-and-miss offering.

“His best pitch is the fastball,” said Salem manager Carlos Febles. “He doesn’t trust his fastball yet. He doesn’t know how good his fastball is.”

Ball is flashing a much-improved curveball this year. His changeup likewise looks like an average-to-plus offering.
 

threecy

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Thus far in 2015 (age 21 at Salem A+) through 47 innings, he has a 4.98 ERA, 3.6BB/9, and 5K/9.  Slightly worse numbers than last season in Greenville.
 
Perhaps a bit worrisome for their highest draft pick in 20 years.
 

DJnVa

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Per b-ref, he's still 2 years younger than the weighted average of all players in his league, and he's actually "younger" this year relatively speaking than last season.
 

chrisfont9

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threecy said:
Thus far in 2015 (age 21 at Salem A+) through 47 innings, he has a 4.98 ERA, 3.6BB/9, and 5K/9.  Slightly worse numbers than last season in Greenville.
 
Perhaps a bit worrisome for their highest draft pick in 20 years.
Maybe but while good stats would probably suggest progress, at this point the kind of progress he should be making might have nothing to do with numbers.
 

threecy

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chrisfont9 said:
Maybe but while good stats would probably suggest progress, at this point the kind of progress he should be making might have nothing to do with numbers.
For a high upside type of prospect, sure...but for a #7 overall?  One would expect to see at least some early dominance.
 

billy ashley

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A number 7 in a pretty weak class.... you've got to remember that, there wasn't much out there.
 
The guy most of us were drooling over hasn't hit, either (Clint Frazier). It sucks that Austin Meadows answered his biggest pre-draft knock (lack of power) and has become a really good prospect, but there wasn't much out there that year.
 
I would prepare yourself for an equally disappointing 7, this year as well as this class is super thin.
 
We should start a thread about how Ben and Co need to do a better job of shitting the bed in advance of good draft classes instead of weak ones. 
 

Toe Nash

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It's easy enough to click around on the list of draftees to see where they're at. Most are doing better than Trey - either have made it to a higher level or have been ranked by prospecters. The Sox got 2-hit over 6 IP by a guy picked in the same draft just last week. I mean, Chi Chi isn't likely to become a star but he's already WAY more advanced than Trey Ball is likely to be.
 
It's really OK so say the team screwed up. The thought process was fine (going for a high upside guy) but they whiffed. It happens.
 
The fact that Ball isn't even getting Ks is the most worrisome thing to me. Even guys who are raw still miss bats if they are at all projectable.
 

billy ashley

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Toe Nash said:
It's easy enough to click around on the list of draftees to see where they're at. Most are doing better than Trey - either have made it to a higher level or have been ranked by prospecters. The Sox got 2-hit over 6 IP by a guy picked in the same draft just last week. I mean, Chi Chi isn't likely to become a star but he's already WAY more advanced than Trey Ball is likely to be.
 
It's really OK so say the team screwed up. The thought process was fine (going for a high upside guy) but they whiffed. It happens.
 
The fact that Ball isn't even getting Ks is the most worrisome thing to me. Even guys who are raw still miss bats if they are at all projectable.
 
Oh, I think it's entirely possible that they whiffed (though I wouldn't write Ball off just yet. He's still very young for his league and has plus athleticism).
 
I still maintain that there wasn't much out there, though:
 
 
  •  5- the guy most of us wanted- Clint Frazier: outrageous bat speed still exists but there are questions about his k rates. He's actually doing better than the press he gets, more than holding his own in high A and seeing a drop in his k rate. Still, he hasn't been the impact prospect most hoped.
  • 6- Colin Moran: the guy we were linked to that almost no one wanted- Moran is basically what his detractors thought thus far. A guy with a decent hit skill, no power to speak of and fringe defense at third base. He's 23 in AA and posting a wRC+ of 97. The guy probably makes it to the majors, but it's hard to imagine him as anything more than a second division starter.
  • 7- who we drafted- Ball. In high A, not getting whiffs and getting hit hard. Has time on his side (he'll be 21 in about a month) and athleticism but the results haven't been pretty. We all knew he was going to be a project when he was drafted as he was a 2 way player with not a ton of pitching experience and a high schooler (albeit an old one) but you'd like to see some results.
  • 8- Hunter Dozier- like Moran, another college hitter. Was successful in A ball but has struggled in high A and AA thus far. Is almost 23 years old and doesn't have any stand out skills.
  • 9 Austin Meadows- the poor man's Frazier has been better than Frazier. A lot of folks wanted to draft him. Questions about his ability to hit for power and/or stick to center were his major criticisms. So far he's been very good. Looks like a guy who will have league average power, a plus hit skills and above average d in a corner. In this draft, that's an excellent outcome. 
  • 10- Phil Bickford DNS went to CC is eligible for this draft (I believe)
  • 11- Domonic Smith- super young for high A, just turned 20. Hasn't hit. Is a 1b, so his bat will need to carry him. Too early to write off, but he hasn't done too much, yet.
  • 12- DJ Peterson- hit very well as a 22 year old in High A has stalled out offensively in AA thus far this year. Definitely a prospect but not exactly a Ryan Dent over Stanton type of situation
  • 13- Hunter Renfroe- another college bat who thrived in high A but hasn't hit in AA. He's a prospect and like Peterson could be a solid regular one day but there's some risk he's a bench guy.
  • 14-Reese Mcquire- hasn't hit at all at any level but is a HS catcher so it's hard to hold that against him. I don't know his defensive reputation, but I'd imagine it's very good given that he's been ranked the past 2 years despite posting OPS below .650 at every stop above rookie ball.
  • 15- Braden Shipley- we were rumored to be interested in Shipley. College pitcher, well regarded going into 2015 by the various prospect lists. Had a lot of success in high A has been ok but not great in AA. 
 
It's really a bad idea to put too much weight into the stats for guys below AA ball, so I'm guilty of that here but I think my point largely stands. The 2013 draft class was pretty weak after you got through the top 5. I look forward to us all being pissed off about whoever we draft next week, given that this class looks pretty terrible, too. 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Fun fact. Ball is something like 9 days older than Benintendi.

Ball has 11.2 scoreless innings in his last two starts but perhaps more importantly is getting excited about his fastball command.

Tall lefty pitchers from cold-weather states are usually going to take some time to pit things together. I'm still excited about his prospects.
 

Troy O'Lovely

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I have been following Trey Ball recently and noticed that he seems to have way more walks this year as his success has increased.  Has anyone seen him enough to know why?  Is this a side effect of learning a secondary pitch?  Is he just that raw/wild? 
 

chrisfont9

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All of the evidence suggests that he's working it out. We won't know if the lightbulb will ever go on until it does, but there's absolutely no reason to give up on the guy. Maybe in another three years if he's still trying to figure out it, then you can start saying how he's a bust. But the stats-based pessimism in this thread is misplaced. They knew he was highly unpolished when they took him. How long it takes to get polished... who knows? Not overnight, that's for sure.
 

smastroyin

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It would be interesting if someone wanted to do a study on how often guys make the leap given Ball's inability to miss bats combined with age and level.  Not that he is old for league but he's not particularly young (for prospects).
 
It is easy to think of guys who made it that when you go back and look at their peripherals they might fit a profile like this (look at Derek Lowe's, for instance).  But that's all selection bias because we will look at guys who made it and then their peripherals without looking up (or even knowing) the guys who had short or irrelevant careers, never mind those that never reached AAA.
 
So yes, there is no reason to say Trey Ball has 0% chance, but I wouldn't say he's doing anything to cause optimism either.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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smastroyin said:
It would be interesting if someone wanted to do a study on how often guys make the leap given Ball's inability to miss bats combined with age and level.  Not that he is old for league but he's not particularly young (for prospects).
 
It is easy to think of guys who made it that when you go back and look at their peripherals they might fit a profile like this (look at Derek Lowe's, for instance).  But that's all selection bias because we will look at guys who made it and then their peripherals without looking up (or even knowing) the guys who had short or irrelevant careers, never mind those that never reached AAA.
 
So yes, there is no reason to say Trey Ball has 0% chance, but I wouldn't say he's doing anything to cause optimism either.
 
A guy on Soxprospects did something like this in the Ball thread - basically, he looked at pitchers drafted out of HS and had a career WAR of 5 or over.  He found that of all of these pitchers, only 3 out of 52-ish had neither a K/9 of 9 or over or a WHIP of 1.1 or under.  He was using years 1999 - 2012.
 
While it probably seems arbitrary, it seems that it's very likely that being 6' 6" or playing both ways or coming from a cold weather state would likely be factors that should be split out from the general group.  Given that Ball has all three, if anyone is a candidate for being an outlier, it is him.
 
Of course, I'm biased because I'd much rather root for a kid than think about how he's going to flame out.  Still, I suspect that if Ball simply threw his fastball - which is supposed to be his best pitch - all of the time it would make his stats look a lot better, but the fact that he is working to "spin the ball" (as one story mentioned recently - while making the point that Henry Owens was throwing a change-up in his teens while Ball was playing outfield), it's better for his development.
 

smastroyin

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Right now Ball has a 5.2 K/9 and 1.339 WHIP despite only a .239 BAA.  So it's not just that he doesn't meet the thresholds, he's not particularly close.  And while I understand that he is still learning to pitch, if he needed that work I'm not sure why they didn't let him consolidate gains in low A.  OK, this is where people will say he met some other goals for promotion but eventually he is going to need results to match whatever goals he has set.  And therefore while he isn't a bust yet, I think 2016 is a little more important to his progression than maybe some people think, even if he stays in A+.
 
Now, I can certainly understand the frustration when everyone is already decided that he is a bust.  But, of course, they have history on their side, most guys bust.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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IMO, it's too bad that the Sox coaching staff at Salem is developing Ball through the "learn a new pitch" school rather than the "go to your best pitches" school. There's a time for incorporating new pitches, but it seems to me that time's when you've already shown the ability to get hitters out without walking too many of them.
 
I've been starting to think that might be the basis of the problem why there's been so little ability to transition pitchers effectively between bullpen and rotation, and from milb to MLB. Of course, I've also been starting to think of Ball as a future bullpen arm.
 

Troy O'Lovely

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Buzzkill Pauley said:
IMO, it's too bad that the Sox coaching staff at Salem is developing Ball through the "learn a new pitch" school rather than the "go to your best pitches" school. There's a time for incorporating new pitches, but it seems to me that time's when you've already shown the ability to get hitters out without walking too many of them.
 
I've been starting to think that might be the basis of the problem why there's been so little ability to transition pitchers effectively between bullpen and rotation, and from milb to MLB. Of course, I've also been starting to think of Ball as a future bullpen arm.
 
I'm not being snarky, I'm legitimately asking this -- why do you think that it's better to learn new pitches later, especially for a guy who was as raw as Ball coming in?  I ask this because I know nothing about coaching pitching, but it seems the Sox have tried the approach you're describing more often than not for a while.  Matt Barnes springs to mind, as the guy dominated single A while wiping out the world with his fastball but progressed through the system with little else.  Owens only learned a slider in Pawtucket (or late in AA, I'm not entirely sure but I know he didn't have one for most of his stint in Portland).  It seems to (uneducated) me that if a guy is only going to have 3 pitches it's certainly better to ascertain that early and save yourself the frustration of watching pitcher after pitcher wash out in AAA.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Troy O'Lovely said:
 
I'm not being snarky, I'm legitimately asking this -- why do you think that it's better to learn new pitches later, especially for a guy who was as raw as Ball coming in?  I ask this because I know nothing about coaching pitching, but it seems the Sox have tried the approach you're describing more often than not for a while.  Matt Barnes springs to mind, as the guy dominated single A while wiping out the world with his fastball but progressed through the system with little else.  Owens only learned a slider in Pawtucket (or late in AA, I'm not entirely sure but I know he didn't have one for most of his stint in Portland).  It seems to (uneducated) me that if a guy is only going to have 3 pitches it's certainly better to ascertain that early and save yourself the frustration of watching pitcher after pitcher wash out in AAA.
Because learning a fourth pitch will only ever be valuable if Ball stays a starter. And lots of starters get by fine on three.

Learning first to use two quality pitches to get pro hitters out - whether it's because a pitcher relies on raw stuff, hones strong command, or perfects a deceptive delivery - builds the foundation skills useful to both relieving and starting.

Lots of pitchers "wash out" as starters, even high draft picks. However, those who have learned how to get batters out with their two best pitches can often become fine relievers. Even if the second pitch is mastered late in development, like Paplebon's splitter was.

Starting pitcher prospects who wash out from baseball entirely do so not because they don't use four pitches, or even three. They do because they can't even get batters out with their best ones.

Now, I'm not suggesting Ball fits that category, but I don't see where he's consistently shown ability to strike out pro hitters with his best pitches. So, teaching him how to sling more and different slop is probably not the answer. At least IMO.
 

smastroyin

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Ball has not been good lately, the low BABIP and high strand rates seems to be coming back to semi-normal levels and his other peripherals are staying similar.
 
He has thrown 20 more innings than last season and maybe has hit a bit of a wall, or I suppose it's possible they have him working on some different things down the stretch, but I can't see any reason to promote him, AA hitters will tee off on him if he doesn't improve.  Let him try to consolidate some gains and have some success.  He's still pretty young.
 

billy ashley

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Agreed that he should start next season in Salem. They've been aggressive with him thus far, he could have easily started last season in Lowell. He's not behind the age curve, at all.
 
While I've defended his selection for a while now, I will admit that it's disappointing that from a results stand point, he's doing the reverse of 2014. Going from not great but with some reason for optimism to just terrible as the season moved on. 
 
You never want to scout the box scores of talent in high A, but you've got to hope that he shows some life if he repeats.
 
The only positive that for 2015 is that the few scouting reports that I've seen on him this year basically say the same thing as last year. Ball is an athletic guy who repeats his delivery well and has the potential for 2 different 55-60 pitches and possibly one 45-50 pitch. With below average to average command, that's  mid rotation to back end of the rotation starter.
 
Development isn't linear but this has been a frustrating season for Ball.  Hopefully 2016 is better. 
 

derekson

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My question with Ball is, wasn't he at least somewhat of a two way prospect? At some point do you put a bat in his hands and see if he can actually hit, instead of trying to keep making pitching work when he has absolutely no ability to miss bats? I'm not saying that point is now, or when that point is, but does such a point exist? Or do you just keep him as a pitcher until he either washes out or makes it?
 

billy ashley

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The consensus was that Ball could be a 2nd round pick as an outfielder. There was some talk of some teams looking at him at the end of round was as an outfielder, too. 
 
You don't usually want to make such a dramatic change unless a player has completely stalled out. Williams Jerez was a talented amateur outfielder who was struggling to do anything at the plate in short season ball. He was in his third year, and had yet to post a wRC+ of 67. It was pretty much convert to pitching or stop playing professional baseball in the states at that point. 
 
Ball has been terrible this year, but if we looked at his numbers just 4 weeks ago, his overall line would look superficially, okay.
 
I'm not saying we should be happy about Ball's 2015 season, but he'll still be relatively young for high- A next season, and the scouting reports still suggest that he could have 3 major league pitches. Everyone knew he was a long term project when he was drafted. The stats haven't been there, but it's hardly time to put a bat in his hands.
 
He seems only slightly more likely to return to being an everyday player as Brian Johnson.