Вперёд! 2018 World Cup Qualifiers

[Titans Bastard]

It's almost happening already, so I thought I'd kick off a thread.  CONCACAF qualifiers begin in March.
 
CONMEBOL
 
Brazil will be back in the mix for qualifiers, meaning CONMEBOL will once again have the fantastic 10-team, 18-match single table qualification.  No word on schedule just yet.
 
UEFA
 
Qualifiers will start in September 2016 after the Euros are done.  We'll hear more about the seeding pots at some point prior to that.
 
CONCACAF
 
The early-round format has changed a bit this time around.  Nothing will change for the US, who enter at the semifinal round once again.  The group stage preceding the semifinal round has been scrapped and there will be three home-and-home rounds instead.  This is similar to most CONCACAF qualifying tournaments prior to 2014.
 
The first round draw is out and will be played from March 23-31.
 
Bahamas vs. Bermuda
British Virgin Islands vs. Dominica
Barbados vs. US Virgin Islands
Turks & Caicos Islands vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis
Nicaragua vs. Anguilla
Belize vs. Cayman Islands
Curaçao vs. Montserrat
 
 
This round will have the usually motley crew of local islanders, mid-level NCAA players, foreign recruits from the English non-League ranks, and so on.  It's not out of the question for a country like Barbados to reach the semifinal round, but they'll be a patsy at that stage.
 
The second round draw is out as well.
 
 
St. Vincent &  the Grenadines vs. Guyana
Antigua & Barbuda vs. Saint Lucia
Puerto Rico vs. Grenada
Canada vs. British Virgin Islands / Dominica
 
Dominican Republic vs. Belize / Cayman Islands
Guatemala vs. Bahamas / Bermuda
Aruba vs. Barbados / US Virgin Islands
Turks & Caicos / St. Kitts & Nevis vs. El Salvador
Curaçao / Montserrat vs. Cuba
Nicaragua / Anguilla vs. Suriname
 
 
In the third round, Haiti and Jamaica will join the draw and together with Canada (who will win their matchup easily) will be paired with the three winners from the top of the draw.  The remaining six winners of the other matches will be paired against each other for the final three places in the semifinal round.
 
The fourth round (a.k.a. semifinal round) will be the usual three groups of four.  USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, and T&T have byes.
 
CAF
 
No information yet.  Their format traditionally sucks, going from a group stage to a final round of 10 group winners playing for five spots in home-and-homes.  It leaves too much to the luck of the draw.  Hopefully that changes, though keeping travel costs down is always a concern in the region.
 
AFC
 
WCQs are doubling as qualifiers for the 2017 Asian Cup.  A quick home-and-home first round will eliminate the weakest minnows and reduce the field to 40.  A group stage of eight groups of five (eight matches) will occur, with the eight group winners and four best runners-up advancing.  The third round will be two groups of six, with the top two in each qualifying for the WC.  Assuming AFC keeps 4.5 spots (which honestly, they don't deserve), the two third place teams will play off for the chance to lose to a team from another confederation, unless they luck into New Zealand.
 
OFC
 
Winner of the 2016 OFC Nations Cup will go into the inter-confederation playoffs.

 

[Titans Bastard]

It's started.  The first round of AFC qualifiers is today.
 
In Asia the first round is a play-in round prior to a 40-country group stage (8 groups of 5).  The participants?  The dregs of the AFC.
 
First leg:  (ELO rating in parentheses)
 
Timor-Leste (221) 4-1 Mongolia (215)
Cambodia (216) 3-0 Macau (223)
Sri Lanka (205) 0-1 Bhutan (231)
Taiwan (211) 0-1 Brunei (226)
 
India (180) vs. Nepal (197) is kicking off now and Yemen (159) vs. Pakistan (190) in a few hours.  Apparently, Nepal's manager is American.

 

[DJnVa]

Nepal's coach: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Stefanowski
 
 
I'm definitely on Mongolia's bandwagon.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Nepal's coach: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Stefanowski
 
 
I'm definitely on Mongolia's bandwagon.

 
A 4-1 loss to Timor-Leste is bad news, but at this level it can be overturned more easily than one might expect.  Ulaanbaatar is at 4,500 feet and the forecast for the return leg is a high of 32 F and a low of 3 F.  The East Timorese will probably never have experienced conditions like that before.
 
Bhutan and Brunei winning on the road are both huge upsets.
 
This is the third time that Brunei has participated in WCQs and the first since 2002.  Their combined WCQ record to this point is 0-0-12 with a 2-57 goal differential.  They probably haven't faced a team as shitty as Taiwan in WCQ before, although Hong Kong, Macau, and China in 1986 were probably really bad too, so who knows.
 
Looking through Bhutan's history on ELO, their win over Sri Lanka is their first since 2008, when they beat Afghanistan in the SAFF Championship (South Asian regional tournament).  They've also beaten Montserrat (competes with Anguilla, BVI, and USVI for absolute worst in CONCACAF) in a 2002 friendly and Guam in a 2003 Asian Cup qualifier.  That, and an unofficial win over Tibet in a 2007 friendly is the entirety of their historical wins.
 
If Bhutan survives the second leg, they are going to get absolutely murdered in the group stage.
 
EDIT: It's also the first time Bhutan have entered WCQ in their history.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Zimbabwe have been expelled from CAF qualifiers because they didn't pay their coach.  Thus ending 2018's chances of being the first World Cup where every single FIFA member was involved in the World Cup process.

 

[Titans Bastard]

The NY Times did a piece on the Bhutanese national team and their win over Sri Lanka.

 

[Phil Plantier]

I watched a documentary on that Bhutan-Montserrat match. I'll try to find the title of it when I'm at a computer.

Here it is: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Other_Final

 

[DLew On Roids]

Bhutan was ranked at the bottom of the FIFA rankings (209) before the Sri Lanka match.  Looks like Anguilla has to do something against Nicaragua to avoid the wooden spoon.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Bhutan finished the job at home today with another win (2-1) over Sri Lanka.  Chencho Gyeltshen scored the 90th minute DAGGER.  They advance 3-1 on aggregate -- nice start for their first qualifying campaign.
 
Timor-Leste surprisingly(?) beat Mongolia in freezing temps in Ulaanbaatar 1-0, which was more than enough after a 4-1 home win.  Cambodia and India both earned draws on the road and advanced.
 
Pakistan-Yemen was postponed because of the Lahore bombings and will be played behind closed doors.
 
I found a video of Brunei's goal against Taiwan in the first leg:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQOh6hWYcXw&t=10
 
World Class.
 
Taiwan made up for an embarrassing home loss by winning 2-0 in Brunei today.

 

[OCST]

Bhutan finished the job at home today with another win (2-1) over Sri Lanka.  Chencho Gyeltshen scored the 90th minute DAGGER.  They advance 3-1 on aggregate -- nice start for their first qualifying campaign.
 
Timor-Leste surprisingly(?) beat Mongolia in freezing temps in Ulaanbaatar 1-0, which was more than enough after a 4-1 home win.  Cambodia and India both earned draws on the road and advanced.
 
Pakistan-Yemen was postponed because of the Lahore bombings and will be played behind closed doors.
 
I found a video of Brunei's goal against Taiwan in the first leg:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQOh6hWYcXw&t=10
 
World Class.
 
Taiwan made up for an embarrassing home loss by winning 2-0 in Brunei today.

 
The Eephus strike!
 
Seems like that's a potentially effective tactic.  The keeper and defenders had trouble tracking the trajectory and figuring out where to put themselves.  

 

[Titans Bastard]

CONCACAF qualifiers began yesterday with the USVI beating Barbados 1-0 in Bridgetown.  You never know who exactly the Caribbean islands can scrounge up for these games, but the USVI is usually really bad and Barbados usually regularly beats the true Caribbean bottomfeeders like USVI, BVI, Anguilla, et al.  Surprising result.
 
The first and second legs of this and the other six 1st round ties are scattered on a bunch of different days through 3/31.  St. Kitts & Nevis vs. Turks & Caicos and Nicaragua vs. Anguilla are today.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Dear family friend started at left back for USVI yesterday. First ever cap.
Barbados announcers called it among the biggest upsets in Barbados football history. They missed two penalties.
Next leg on Thursday in St Thomas.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Dear family friend started at left back for USVI yesterday. First ever cap.
Barbados announcers called it among the biggest upsets in Barbados football history. They missed two penalties.
Next leg on Thursday in St Thomas.

 
I haven't seen a lineup and wouldn't know anything about any of the players anyway of course, but I saw an article claiming that seven players in the USVI squad are 18 or younger.
 

 
 
 
There are some kids in that team, no question.  Must be a fun experience for them.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Yeah, my friend is 18, as is the other kid I know. Starting right back is 16, I believe.
I spoke with him (Kenan, 4th from right, back row) after the game, he was filled with pride and excitement.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Nicaragua 5-0 Anguilla
St. Kitts & Nevis 6-2 Turks & Caicos Islands
 
No surprises.
 
Pakistan played Yemen to a 0-0 draw in Bahrain after Pakistan's home leg was postponed and moved.  Yemen goes through 3-1 on aggregate and rounds out the field of 40 for the AFC second round.  The seeding for the draw will be set with the April FIFA rankings - five pots of eight teams.  

 

[Titans Bastard]

Bermuda crushed Bahamas 5-0 in Nassau.  A Bahamian defender by the name of Happy Hall was red carded in the first half, which didn't help.  Bermuda has a few players who are pretty good by low-level Caribbean standards, chiefly Huddersfield Town striker Nahki Wells.  They'd maybe be a threat to make it to the third round if they hadn't drawn Guatemala.
 
 
Belize vs. Cayman Islands is being played right now.  If anyone feels like finding out what exactly that looks like, there's a live stream here.

 

[Titans Bastard]

 
Belize vs. Cayman Islands is being played right now.  If anyone feels like finding out what exactly that looks like, there's a live stream here.

 
Listening to these announcers is too stressful.  I can't do it anymore.

 

[Arroyo Con Frijoles]

This stream is amazing, Jack Edwards flashbacks.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Belize - Cayman Islands finished 0-0, which is a great result for the Caymans in their first match since being knocked out of the last WCQ in November 2011.
 
Today, the British Virgin Islands plays Dominica.  There are also two second legs scheduled -- USVI vs. Barbados and Turks & Caicos vs. St. Kitts & Nevis.
 
Tomorrow, the last tie of the round begins - Curacao vs. Montserrat.  The manager of Curacao is none other than Patrick Kluivert and judging by their roster, he's recruited quite a few decent Eredivisie types.  They could definitely give Cuba a run for their money in the next round.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Barbados up 2-0 at the half. USVI with virtually no possession, keeper keeping them in the match.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Barbados wins 4-0, could have been much more but for the Cruzan keeper. Sargeant bossed for Barbados on the right flank.
USVI manages two corners and (I think) zero shots on goal.
 
I now understand the magnitude of the upset on Barbados - the teams looked a gulf apart.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Barbados wins 4-0, could have been much more but for the Cruzan keeper. Sargeant bossed for Barbados on the right flank.
USVI manages two corners and (I think) zero shots on goal.
 
I now understand the magnitude of the upset on Barbados - the teams looked a gulf apart.

 
Yes.  Winning on the road at Barbados is a big deal for USVI.
 
Elsewhere yesterday, Saint Kitts beat Turks & Caicos 6-2 (again) and advanced 12-4 on aggregate.  Dominica beat BVI "on the road" 3-2 -- both legs are being held in Dominica.
 
The Curacao Fightin' Kluiverts should curbstomp Montserrat later today.

 

[OCST]

nm; started new thread

 

[eddiew112]

Kane scores within a minute of coming on in his debut. The fairy tale season continues

 

[Titans Bastard]

Kane scores within a minute of coming on in his debut. The fairy tale season continues

 
And yet he still hasn't scored in a World Cup qualifier! 
 
 
----
 
CONCACAF qualifier results have continued to trickle in....
 
- Curaçao only beat Montserrat 2-1 at home, which is a very poor result for them.  9 of their starters play in or have extensive experience in the top two divisions of the Netherlands and Montserrat is made up mostly of lower-level non-League recruits, a couple of pros, and a couple of islanders.  Their star seems to be Partick Thistle striker Lyle Taylor, who once almost won the golden boot in the Scottish second tier for Falkirk.
 
- Nicaragua finished off Anguilla with a 3-0 road win, advancing 8-0 on aggregate.
 
- Bermuda did the same thing, but at home - a 3-0 win, 8-0 in total.
 
- Belize squeaked past the Cayman Islands on road goals after a 1-1 draw in George Town.
 
- Dominica played to a 0-0 draw against BVI, which was enough to hold on after their 3-2 road win.
 
 
Second Round
 
The second round actually contains some countries that have a chance of reaching the Hex.  All but eight CONCACAF nations will join the fray at this point.  USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, and T&T have byes to the fourth (semifinal) round.  Jamaica and Haiti have byes to the third round.
 
So essentially, six countries from among the second round participants + Haiti & Jamaica will make the semifinal round.  Both legs will be played over the June FIFA dates.
 
 
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines vs. Guyana
Antigua & Barbuda vs. Saint Lucia
Puerto Rico vs. Grenada
Canada vs. Dominica
Dominican Republic vs. Belize
Guatemala vs. Bermuda
Aruba vs. Barbados
Saint Kitts & Nevis vs. El Salvador
Curaçao/Montserrat vs. Cuba
Nicaragua vs. Suriname

 

[Titans Bastard]

Montserrat 2-2 Curacao.
 
Curacao needed a late second goal to avoid going to extra time against one of the true global winners.  They've recruited all sorts of Netherlands-based pros, but apparently they suck anyway.
 
 
The next thing that happens is the draw for the AFC second round group stage in a couple of weeks.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Draw for the AFC second round:
 
Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Group G: South Korea, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, North Korea, Yemen
 
The eight group winners and the four "best" runners up will advance to the third round.  I dislike systems that rank runners up because of the uneven quality of groups.
 
It's weird to see North Korea in pot 4.  Group H can't be happy to have them in their group, considering the general quality of the pot 4 alternatives.
 
Most of these groups should be two horse races at best.  The AFC's lack of depth should be highlighted in this format.  And I hope Australia enjoys the traveling they have ahead of them....

 

[Titans Bastard]

Yemen football team flees war by boat to make World Cup 2018 qualifier with North Korea
 
 
Two rounds of AFC group stage games and both legs of the CONCACAF second round coming up over the next week and a half.  On top of the Women's World Cup, Euro qualifiers, Copa America, and the U20 knockouts.  It's too much work.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Nicaragua 1-0 Suriname
 
 
If Suriname allowed dual citizenship and recruited a bunch of Dutch players like Algeria does with France, they could be halfway decent by CONCACAF standards.  But they don't, and they aren't.  Nicaragua is weak, though, and this one is still up in the air.

 

[Infield Infidel]

Nicaragua 1-0 Suriname
 
 
If Suriname allowed dual citizenship and recruited a bunch of Dutch players like Algeria does with France, they could be halfway decent by CONCACAF standards.  But they don't, and they aren't.  Nicaragua is weak, though, and this one is still up in the air.

 
They are working on getting Netherlands-based pro players of Suriname decent to be approved to play. (Note: Jeffrey Webb was involved) They apparently have some kind of unofficial team waiting in the wings that played a match last year. (these two links are google translates of Dutch articles)
 
This would plus for CONCACAF if they could pull it off.
 
edit - wikipedia has the rosters for both the official Suriname team and the unofficial Suripro team made up of NL-based players, they've played two friendlies, vs a T&T club team and Curacao
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriname_national_football_team#Unofficial_Professional_team

 

[Titans Bastard]

Indonesia have been kicked out of WC qualifiers because their football association is suspended by FIFA and the AFC.  It looks like the issue is a spat between the Indonesian FA and the Indonesian government over the eligibility of certain clubs to play in the top division.  The FA wouldn't remove two clubs from the league, so they were suspended by the Ministry of Sport, and then decided to halt the league.
 
Indonesia was in Pot 4 and wasn't much of a threat to advance, but it's always unfortunate to see a qualification run end this way.
 
Some other AFC issues:
 
- Afghanistan and Iraq will be playing home games in Iran for security reasons
- Syria will be playing home games in Oman for security reasons
- Yemen will be playing home games in Qatar for security reasons
- Myanmar will be playing home games in Thailand as punishment for crowd violence in a home qualifier for the 2014 WC.
- Timor-Leste will play at least one home game in Malaysia because of stadium suitability issues.

 

[Titans Bastard]

St. Vincent & the Grenadines 2-2 Guyana
Antigua & Barbuda 1-3 St. Lucia
Aruba 0-2 Barbados
Curaçao 0-0 Cuba
 
Surprising loss for A&B, who made the semifinal round last time and whose squad has a bunch of League Two and Conference level players.  They didn't have some of their top players from last cycle like Mikele Leigertwood and Dexter Blackstock.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Guam 1-0 Turkmenistan
 
 
Epic result for Guam.  Their only previous attempt at qualifying was for the 2002 World Cup.  In the first stage, they lost both games in their three-team group to Iran 19-0 and to Tajikistan 16-0.
 
This time around, Guam has done a good job of recruiting players with Guamanian roots.  Their top player is LA Galaxy defender A.J. DeLaGarza, who got two caps for the US in friendlies back in 2002.  By ELO ratings, Guam came into the game ranked 205th and Turkmenistan was 140th.  Their best win by ELO previous to this came in the 2013 AFC Challenge Cup in Myanmar when they beat Taiwan (196th).

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

TB, thanks for all the updates.
 
As a sidenote, Elo ratings are named after a guy, Arpad Elo.  So it's not an acronym. </pet peeve>

 

[DJnVa]

US up to #15 in ELO.

 

[Titans Bastard]

TB, thanks for all the updates.
 
As a sidenote, Elo ratings are named after a guy, Arpad Elo.  So it's not an acronym. </pet peeve>

 
 

US up to #15 in ELO.

 
Take that, MDL!
 
 
Noted, though.  I did not know that.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Take that, MDL!

 
DrewDawg never misses a gimme tap-in.  He's the Alvaro Arbeloa of SoSH.

 

[DJnVa]

I didn't even know Ronaldo was behind me.
 
Elo.
 
Elo.

 

[OCST]

 

[Titans Bastard]

Qatar snares a late winner against Maldives in the 9th minute of stoppage time.  I guess "Sheikh Time" is the new "Fergie Time".

 

[Titans Bastard]

Surprising loss for A&B, who made the semifinal round last time and whose squad has a bunch of League Two and Conference level players.  They didn't have some of their top players from last cycle like Mikele Leigertwood and Dexter Blackstock.

 
Turns out A&B's manager is Piotr Nowak.  That makes the loss less surprising!
 
 
Electric Light Orchestra ratings in parentheses:
 
CONCACAF
Dominican Republic (147) 1-2 Belize (176)
Dominica (191) 0-2 Canada (81)
St. Kitts & Nevis (151) 2-2 El Salvador (88)
 
The Salvadorans are recovering from a major match-fixing scandal that saw a significant chunk of their national team banned for multiple years or for life.  Their starting squad tonight contained four dual national Americans. Not a good result for them.
 
AFC
Bangladesh (189) 1-3 Kyrgyzstan (179)
Cambodia (214) 0-4 Singapore (168)
Hong Kong (169) 7-0 Bhutan (227)
Laos (204) 2-2 Myanmar (186)
Philippines (145) 2-1 Bahrain (90)
Malaysia (155) 1-1 Timor-Leste (217)
India (181) 1-2 Oman (82)
Lebanon (105) 0-1 Kuwait (94)
Tajikistan (140) 1-3 Jordan (92)
Afghanistan (173) 0-6 Syria (79)
Maldives (183) 0-1 Qatar (75)
Yemen (160) 0-1 North Korea (95)
Saudi Arabia (86) 3-2 Palestine (138)
 
Great result for Thomas Dooley's Philippines squad against one of their main rivals for 2nd place and possibly advancement.  They have a fighting chance against Bahrain and North Korea in the group, but probably not against Uzbeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan.  It's pretty clearly the toughest group, albeit by the sad-sack standards of the Asian Confederation early rounds.
 
Saudi Arabia coughed up a 90'+1' equalizer, only to snatch a winner two minutes later.  They've fallen off in recent years and struggling to beat Palestine at home doesn't indicate they're improving.

 

[Titans Bastard]

CONCACAF
2nd round, 1st leg
Puerto Rico (183) 1-0 Grenada (171)
Guatemala (90) 0-0 Bermuda (149)
 
Bad result for Guatemala, although they apparently had multiple goals incorrectly disallowed.
 
2nd round, 2nd leg
Cuba (113) 1-1 Curaçao (180) [1-1 on agg, away goals]
Belize (171) 3-0 Dominican Republic (162) [5-1 on agg]
Guyana (151) 4-4 St. Vincent & the Grenadines (166) [6-6 on agg, away goals]
St. Lucia (176) 1-4 Antigua & Barbuda (156) [3-4 on agg]
Barbados (172) 1-0 Aruba (195) [3-0 on agg]
 
Losing Cuba at this stage is a surprise, although it's hard to be certain what they will bring to the table at any given time because their players are all domestic and impossible to gauge.  That's big for Patrick Kluivert's Curaçao team.
 
St. Lucia blew a real opportunity when they went down to 10 men in the first half.  A&B hit three late goals, including two in stoppage time, to turn the tie around.  SVG held on against Guyana, who scored two late goals but lost in away goals.

 

[dirtynine]

The Euro seeds and pots are official for qualification. 
 
Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Wales, Portugal, Spain, Croatia/Italy
 
Pot 2: Croatia/Italy, Slovakia, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia-Herzegovina
 
Pot 3: Poland, Ukraine, Scotland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, N Ireland, Serbia, Greece
 
Pot 4: Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Estonia
 
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova
 
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra
 
Wales and Romania as seeds is blowing my mind.  Faroe Islands are also punching way above their usual weight in pot 4. 
 
There are going to be some stacked groups.  A group that includes the likes of, say, Germany, France, Sweden and Turkey is possible.  Going the other way, just based on historical prominence, a group with a top 4 of, say, Wales, Iceland, Albania and Faroe Islands doesn't seem so mighty.  But maybe the balance of power really is shifting a bit to the minnows.  

 

[Titans Bastard]

 
The Euro seeds and pots are official for qualification. 
 
Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Wales, Portugal, Spain, Croatia/Italy
 
Pot 2: Croatia/Italy, Slovakia, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia-Herzegovina
 
Pot 3: Poland, Ukraine, Scotland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, N Ireland, Serbia, Greece
 
Pot 4: Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Estonia
 
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova
 
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra
 
Wales and Romania as seeds is blowing my mind.  Faroe Islands are also punching way above their usual weight in pot 4. 
 
There are going to be some stacked groups.  A group that includes the likes of, say, Germany, France, Sweden and Turkey is possible.  Going the other way, just based on historical prominence, a group with a top 4 of, say, Wales, Iceland, Albania and Faroe Islands doesn't seem so mighty.  But maybe the balance of power really is shifting a bit to the minnows.  
 

 
If the pots were determined by Elo, it would look like:
 
 
Pot 1: Germany, Netherlands, Spain, England, France, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Croatia
 
Pot 2: Ukraine, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Poland
 
Pot 3: Scotland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Ireland, Turkey, Wales, Iceland, Hungary, Greece
 
Pot 4: Slovenia, Bulgaria, Israel, Norway, Albania, Montenegro, Finland, Belarus, Northern Ireland
 
Pot 5: Armenia, Estonia, Latvia, Macedonia, Georgia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Moldova
 
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Malta, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, [Gibraltar], Andorra, San Marino
 
 
Elo is not as impressed by Wales, though they've risen 21 spots in the last year, which brings them from mid-Pot 4 territory to mid-Pot 3 territory.
 
FIFA vs. Elo pots
 
+2 - Wales, Faroe Islands
+1 - Romania, Iceland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Albania, Northern Ireland, Estonia
-1 - Croatia/Italy, France, Poland, Ukraine, Sweden, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Belarus, Georgia

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
The Euro seeds and pots are official for qualification. 
 
Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Wales, Portugal, Spain, Croatia/Italy
 
Pot 2: Croatia/Italy, Slovakia, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia-Herzegovina
 
Pot 3: Poland, Ukraine, Scotland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, N Ireland, Serbia, Greece
 
Pot 4: Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Estonia
 
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova
 
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra
 
Wales and Romania as seeds is blowing my mind.  Faroe Islands are also punching way above their usual weight in pot 4. 
 
There are going to be some stacked groups.  A group that includes the likes of, say, Germany, France, Sweden and Turkey is possible.  Going the other way, just based on historical prominence, a group with a top 4 of, say, Wales, Iceland, Albania and Faroe Islands doesn't seem so mighty.  But maybe the balance of power really is shifting a bit to the minnows.  
 

Faroe Islands has won two matches in the last 3 years, both against Greece this year. I think it's more than Greece is terrible.

 

[Titans Bastard]

CONCACAF
2nd round, 2nd leg
Bermuda (144) 0-1 Guatemala (85) [0-1 on agg]
 
Guatemala scrapes through after all their disallowed goals in the first leg.
 
AFC
2nd round, group stage
Guam (201) 2-1 India (181)
Timor-Leste (216) 0-1 UAE (51)
North Korea (94) 4-2 Uzbekistan (56)
 
Population of Guam: 159,000
Population of India: 1,210,193,000
 
Surprising performance from North Korea, who were up 4-0 at halftime.  Uzbekistan is perennially the "best AFC team never to qualify for a World Cup" but perhaps they're not as strong this time around.
 
The rest of the AFC matchday 2 is happening this morning.

 

[Titans Bastard]

CONCACAF
2nd round, 2nd leg
Suriname (164) 1-3 Nicaragua (171) [1-4 on agg]
Grenada (175) 2-0 Puerto Rico (182) [2-1 on agg]
Canada (80) 4-0 Dominica (190) [6-0 on agg]
El Salvador (90) 4-1 Saint Kitts & Nevis (146) [6-3 on agg]
 
That wraps up the second round.  The winners will be joined by Jamaica and Haiti in the third round.
 
If the preliminary bracket that made rounds earlier is accurate, the draw should work this way:
 
Pot C/D countries (Jamaica, Haiti, Canada) will be drawn against remaining Pot F/G countries (Saint Vincent & the Grenadines, Grenada, Antigua & Barbuda).
 
Remaining Pot E countries (El Salvador, Guatemala) and remaining Pot H/I countries (Belize, Barbados, Nicaragua, Curaçao) will be drawn into three matchups.
 
Strangely, four of the six Pot E countries fell to lower-ranked Pot H/I opposition this round.  But honestly, I'm not sure how Aruba and the DR got ranked so high in the first place.  Curaçao is the only survivor from Pot I.  Jamaica, Haiti, Canada, Guatemala, and El Salvador should have smooth sailing to the semifinal round (assuming GUA and ESA aren't drawn together).  Two of the Pot H/I countries will luck out and face each other in the third round (or possibly four if GUA and ESA are together)
 
AFC
2nd round, group stage
Japan (23) 0-0 Singapore (167)
Bangladesh (193) 1-1 Tajikistan (143)
Cambodia (215) 0-1 Afghanistan (177)
Taiwan (210) 0-2 Thailand (122)
Hong Kong (169) 2-0 Maldives (184)
Bhutan (227) 0-6 China (57)
Laos (205) 0-2 Lebanon (110)
Myanmar (186) 0-2 South Korea (26)
Malaysia (160) 0-6 Palestine (138)
Turkmenistan (149) 1-1 Iran (27)
Kyrgyzstan (173) 1-2 Australia (32)
Yemen (165) 0-2 Philippines (140)
 
 
A few more surprising results in the second matchday.  Mainly, Japan was held to a home draw by Singapore and Iran drew with Turkmenistan 1-1 on the road.  Australia struggled to beat Kyrgyzstan on the road, but got the job done.  Palestine crushed Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur.  Philippines picked up three important road points in the "group of death" [by AFC second round standards....]

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Singaporeans are ecstatic about holding Japan to a home draw - memes like this dominated my Facebook feed for a while:
 

 
Not an original joke (I think there was a similar Tim Howard one at last year's World Cup) but, man, that was a great result. Goalkeeper Izwan Mahbud's performance was a revelation - this video is a compilation of all his saves from the game, but check out the one at 0:50-1:16 in particular:
 
https://youtu.be/qRBH_LBAtTM

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Thanks for that video link - keepers can sometimes get lucky in games like those, but he actually looks legitimately good in those clips (with one minor exception).

 

[Titans Bastard]

Aruba have been awarded a 3-0 win over Barbados in the second round because Barbados used a suspended player.  That puts Aruba through 3-2 on aggregate.