Вперёд! 2018 World Cup Qualifiers

Titans Bastard

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CONCACAF 3rd round draw
 
(Elo ratings in parentheses, because FIFA rankings are worthless)
 
Curaçao (177) vs. El Salvador (88)
Canada (83) vs. Belize (169)
Grenada (172) vs. Haiti (92)
Jamaica (51) vs. Nicaragua (165)
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines (162) vs. Aruba (198)
Antigua & Barbuda (147) vs. Guatemala (95)
 
CONCACAF Semifinal Round
Group A
Mexico (14)
Honduras (84)
Curaçao / El Salvador
Canada / Belize
 
Group B
Costa Rica (23)
Panama (45)
Grenada / Haiti
Jamaica / Nicaragua
 
Group C
USA (17)
Trinidad & Tobago (63)
SVG / Aruba
A&B / Guatemala
 
 
Group B is the toughest from top to bottom.  I think CR, Panama, and Jamaica are all Hex-worthy and at least one won't make it.  Very tough draw for Haiti, who I thought would have been a darkhorse to make the Hex had they been in one of the other groups.  Cakewalk for the US.  Pretty easy for Mexico, too, and given the weaknesses of Honduras and El Salvador, even Canada has a chance.
 

Titans Bastard

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CAF First Round
 
Somalia (204) vs. Niger (132)
South Sudan (164) vs. Mauritania (155)
Gambia (122) vs. Namibia (119)
São Tomé and Príncipe (184) vs. Ethiopia (123)
Chad (136) vs. Sierra Leone (128)
Comoros (194) vs. Lesotho (157)
Djibouti (212) vs. Swaziland (147)
Eritrea (179) vs. Botswana (138)
Seychelles (188) vs. Burundi (131)
Liberia (134) vs. Guinea-Bissau (142)
Central African Republic (141) vs. Madagascar (136)
Mauritius (187) vs. Kenya (105)
Tanzania (145) vs. Malawi (113)
 

Titans Bastard

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In the OFC, the first phase of qualifying is complete.  Samoa narrowly won a four-team group on goal difference over American Samoa and Cook Islands, with Tonga trailing far behind.  Samoa qualifies for the 2016 OFC Nations Cup, which doubles as the region's World Cup qualification event.  The winner goes into a two-game playoff against CONMEBOL's fifth place (good luck!)
 
American Samoa's performance (two wins and a loss) vaulted them over Bhutan in the Elo Ratings, and out of last place among all FIFA nations.
 
Group A
Tahiti (139)
New Caledonia (109)
Samoa (206)
Papua New Guinea (175)
 
Group B
New Zealand (73)
Solomon Islands (154)
Fiji (126)
Vanuatu (152)
 

Titans Bastard

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The third matchday of the AFC group stage was also played yesterday.  The effect of going to a group stage early in the process without filtering out more countries was readily apparent:
 
Australia 5-0 Bangladesh
South Korea 8-0 Laos
UAE 10-0 Malaysia
Qatar 15-0 Bhutan
Kuwait 9-0 Myanmar
Saudi Arabia 7-0 Timor-Leste
Iran 6-0 Guam
Iraq 5-1 Taiwan
 
A few results were interesting:
 
China drew with Hong Kong at home, an embarrassing result.  Only half of the 2nd place teams advance, so if China fails to win their group over Qatar, dropping points at home to Hong Kong is exactly what you don't want to do.
 
North Korea beat Bahrain on the road, a key win in what amounts to a (highly relative) group of death.  North Korea already has a home win over Uzbekistan.  Bahrain has already lost on the road to the Philippines and will have a tough time recovering, even to 2nd place finish strong enough to send them to the next round.
 
 
CONCACAF plays tonight.
 

Titans Bastard

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CONCACAF 3rd Round, 1st Leg
 
St. Vincent & the Grenadines (163) 2-0 Aruba (198)
Grenada (174) 1-3 Haiti (92)
Curaçao (177) 0-1 El Salvador (88)
Canada (83) 3-0 Belize (169)
Antigua & Barbuda (146) 1-0 Guatemala (96)
Jamaica (53) 2-3 Nicaragua (166)
 
 
WTF, Jamaica.
 

Titans Bastard

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Titans Bastard said:
CONCACAF 3rd Round, 1st Leg
 
St. Vincent & the Grenadines (163) 2-0 Aruba (198)
Grenada (174) 1-3 Haiti (92)
Curaçao (177) 0-1 El Salvador (88)
Canada (83) 3-0 Belize (169)
Antigua & Barbuda (146) 1-0 Guatemala (96)
Jamaica (53) 2-3 Nicaragua (166)
 
 
WTF, Jamaica.
 
Ultimately, there were no surprises this round despite a couple of close calls.
 
Jamaica needed a 90th minute goal to advance over Nicaragua, nearly getting knocked out on away goals.  Guatemala and St. Vincent both needed late goals to avoid being taken to extra time.
 
Canada suffered the indignity of tying with Belize, but they didn't have too much to worry about after the 3-0 first leg win.
 
 
Fourth round
Group A
Mexico (13)
Honduras (77)
El Salvador (86)
Canada (87)
 
Group B
Costa Rica (23)
Panama (43)
Haiti (90)
Jamaica (59)
 
Group C
United States (18)
Trinidad & Tobago (61)
St. Vincent & the Grenadines (167)
Guatemala (101)
 

Titans Bastard

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African qualifiers started today, as did CONMEBOL.
 
Brazil and Argentina both lost 2-0 -- Brazil @ Chile and Argentina at home vs. Ecuador.
 

Bosoxen

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Needless to say, Argentina looked pretty toothless without Messi. Losing Aguero early in the first half didn't help, either.
 
Coincidentally, both Chile and Ecuador scored both of their goals late in the game. Exciting stuff. I love the CONMEBOL style of play.
 

Titans Bastard

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This looks fun:
 
 
https://twitter.com/FRfutbolJames/status/654039229933166592
 

Zososoxfan

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Argentina looked pitiful again against Paraguay. No Messi and no Aguero, but you still have Di Maria, Lavezzi, Tevez, and other young talent up front like Vietto (totally my binky, but still). The defense is still talented with Otamendi, Zabaleta, and Funes Mori. In midfield, it's just ho hum Mascherano and Pastore. In other words, I think Tata is doing a piss poor job with this group. I don't know much about Mas or Kranevitter, but Mas in particular looked not so good. I'd like to see Pereyra get more run. The team looked disorganized at the back and lackluster in the final third. They were losing possession in the midfield consistently. Lots of credit to Paraguay though, who was running and pressing like crazy throughout. Diaz is an excellent manager.
 
I used to love S. American soccer because it was a throwback to physical soccer like back in the 80s and 90s. But, after following European club play, I have to say it makes the sport much more plodding and touch and go. Even though it will never happen, I would prefer to CONMEBOL refs start giving out cards earlier to give the game the ability to breathe a bit more.
 

Titans Bastard

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Argentina has Brazil and @Colombia in November.  If Martino doesn't right the ship, they could find themselves needing to dig out of a hole early on.
 

Titans Bastard

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CONCACAF

In the US' group, T&T beat Guatemala in Guatemala City to give them a clear leg up on their rivals for advancement.

In Group B, Costa Rica took care of business at home against Haiti. Panama had a huge road win over Jamaica in the toughest semifinal group.

Mexico beat El Salvador and Canada beat Honduras at home, a big win for the Canucks.

CONMEBOL

Ecuador leads the pack after three wins in three games. Argentina's home draw with Brazil leaves them in 9th place, albeit only two points out of 4th. A disappointing haul considering they've already had two home games.

CAF

The last knockout round before the final group stage is underway. Ghana was unable to beat Comoros, albeit on the road. Nigeria were held by Swaziland. African football is always unpredictable.

AFC

Scorelines of 12-0, 8-0, 7-0, and 6-0. Yep, that's the AFC. Uzbekistan registered an important win over North Korea to put them back in the drivers' seat in Group H. Thailand is mounting a strong bid to make it to the final group stage for the first time.
 

Titans Bastard

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Gabon (Aubameyang FC) is the first to go through to the African group stage after knocking out Mozambique on PKs.

Egypt lost to Chad in the first leg - ouch.
 

Titans Bastard

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CONCACAF

In Group A, Mexico beat Honduras in San Pedro Sula. Canada earned a point in El Salvador. The Canadians might regret not taking three points there.

In Group B, Jamaica beat Haiti on the road and Costa Rica beat Panama on the road.

CONMEBOL

A huge win for Argentina over Colombia in Barranquilla gets them back on track in the early stages. Ecuador beat Venezuela on the road to remain perfect through four games.

CAF

The second round is complete; 20 winners move on to the group stage, which is the final stage this time. Almost all of the seeded teams advanced; the lack of surprises is actually a big surprise, given the nature of African football. Even the seeding upsets weren't actually surprising - Morocco over Equatorial Guinea, Libya over Rwanda.

I'm looking forward to the final groups - by clustering the top teams together in five groups of four, there are going to be some tough ones.

AFC

This group round continues to produce ridiculous results, including Saudi Arabia's 10-0 win over East Timor. On this matchday some Central Asian countries played spoiler. Turkmenistan beat Oman and Kyrgyzstan beat Jordan. Iran and Australia now have an edge over Oman and Jordan respectively in their groups.

Hong Kong held China to a draw and still hold a small chance of advancing ahead of them, which would be incredible.
 

dirtynine

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Not 2018-related, but this is interesting.


@GrantWahl: "Relatively under the radar today: It's likely that World Cup 2026 will be expanded from 32 to 40 teams."
 

Titans Bastard

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You know what we need to improve the World Cup? More teams from the AFC! And some 2nd place teams not advancing from the group stage!

EDIT: I found this:



What a joke if true. CONCACAF gets the same number of slots as CONMEBOL? Well, I guess that's what happens when your confederation only has 10 votes.
 
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dirtynine

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I don't love it, and yeah, it'll probably lead to some unwatchable blowouts. If they were to do this, my idea would be a pre-tournament before the World Cup. 24 teams qualify directly to the Finals and are seeded into 8 groups. The final seed in each group is still up for grabs. For those last spots, 16 teams play a pre-World Cup mini-stage. 4 groups of 4, best two from each group (8 teams total) advance and fill out the last spots in the Finals. Then you have your traditional 32-team tournament.

Pros: best teams don't have to risk injuring good players against minnows; the initial mini-tournament would pit teams of relatively similar calibre against one another so it might actually be quite watchable; and you could give a few "warmup" games to each host city.
 

Cellar-Door

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So bascally they are ensuring the top teams advance by adding some terrible AFC teams to the bottom of the pot?
 

swiftaw

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So bascally they are ensuring the top teams advance by adding some terrible AFC teams to the bottom of the pot?
England would still find some way to screw it up

The other downside of an odd number in each group is one team will finish their fixtures before the other four.
 

Infield Infidel

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I heard it would be 8 groups of 5, rather than 10 groups of 4, so the top two in each group would advance (as now).
8 groups of 5 would be super unbalanced schedule-wise. Teams 1 and 5 in each group would play 4 consecutive matches while teams 2, 3 and 4 would each get a bye and much needed rest.

for 40, the best route is 10 groups of 4, with group winners and top two 2nd place teams advancing directly to round of 16, and the other 8 2nd place teams play-off for the last 4 spots.

Also, I love dirtynine's pre-tourney scramble. If they could figure out a way to increase the time before the WC it would be awesome
 

ninjacornelius

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Someone on Twitter brought up the fact that a 40 team tournament means that more minnows would be mathematically eliminated before the end of the group stage, which could make match fixing more rampant. Combined with the unfortunate precedent of some federations not paying their players promptly (or at all), and this could lead to some serious shenanigans.
 

coremiller

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England would still find some way to screw it up

The other downside of an odd number in each group is one team will finish their fixtures before the other four.
FIFA has tried to avoid this after the infamous 1982 Anschluss match, where West Germany and Austria knew they could both advance with a 1-0 West German win due to Algeria's earlier results. Austria let West Germany score in the first ten minutes and then both teams stopped trying.
 
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Argentina @ Chile right now. The Argentines are fielding a lineup with Messi, Aguero and Di Maria up front... and are trailing 1-0 only 11" in, on a nice header off a corner. Five games into CONMEBOL qualifiers and ARG sits at 7th out of 10, with only 4.5 spots available...

...and Di Maria ties it in the 18th on a crazy bending strike from tight quarters. Wow.
 

Zososoxfan

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Fun match yesterday between Argentina and Chile. Chile played well at first, but a turnover led to a nice Di Maria curler (with his right) and then poor defending on a set piece led to a nice scissor volley by Mercado to give Argentina a lead they wouldn't relinquish. Chile was missing a lot of important players so not too much should be extrapolated from this early qualifier. Argentina sorely missed suspended Mascherano, as Kranevitter and Biglia struggled to settle the defense. Otamendi was leading the defense at CB and Rojo plays very well for the national team. Mercado obviously had the big goal, but also played solid D. Funes Mori played alongside Otamendi. Biglia lost his mark on the corner that led to the Chile goal. In midfield, Argentina's passing wasn't as slick as it should've been, and when they possessed the ball, it rarely led to good chances. Argentina was much stronger on the break, where Messi and Banega found Aguero and especially Di Maria in space. It should be said that Sabella had Argentina play old school. Very conservative, and let Argentina's exceptional attacking talent pip one or two goals and then clam up. For results, it is very effective, but it does not lead to beautiful football by any means. Martino seems to have more aggressive attacking ideas, but they aren't all that creative and the defense certainly suffers from less discipline. I would do anything to have Sampaoli or Simeone put this team into more of a pressing squad, but those are both long shots. At least some River players are on the team again after not being present for too long.
 

Titans Bastard

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Asia is down to 12 countries after the completion of the Second Round today. The AFC went with a larger, more inclusive first group stage for the 2018 World Cup, which unsurprisingly resulted in a lot of lopsided scores. The AFC's 4.5 WC slots remains very generous, but at least there should be more competitive groups now.

Iran
Japan
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Australia
Uzbekistan
Qatar
Iraq
China
Thailand
Syria

Jordan made it all the way to the intercontinental playoff last time, but wasn't one of the best four 2nd place teams. North Korea were eliminated. 2010 intercontinental playoff loser Bahrain were eliminated, too.

China and Saudi Arabia bounced back from embarrassing early-round eliminations last time and it's been a good while since Thailand and Syria have made it this far.
 

dirtynine

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Are Syria and Iraq playing home games? I can't imagine many visiting countries eager to venture into those situations.
 

Zososoxfan

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Argentina beat Bolivia last night in Cordoba 2-0. Messi scored a penalty and Mercado continues his torrid goal pace. Di Maria went out with a minor injury. Mascherano completely changed how well the midfield played (playing poor Bolivia didn't hurt either). Higuain is playing incredibly well right now. Very focused and sharp. But he will never be forgiven for costing Argentina 2 major trophies.

Messi playing as a #10 is how this team is best constructed to play. He basically plays at the top of a diamond (in front of Mascherano, and 2 of Banega/Pastore/Biglia) with Di Maria/Lavezzi providing width and Higuain/Aguero in the middle.

The corpse of Demichelis was also seen moping around near the Argentina net. Martino played Zabaleta doppleganger Pinola at CB and Rojo continues to be quality at LB. He combined well with Banega, Di Maria, and Messi down the flank. Atleti youngster Angel Correa also came on for a bit. Perhaps Bosox can provide some insight to the few games he's played for Atleti this year. Augusto Fernandez came on again. I believe he started the season with Atleti too, but was loan (sold?) to Celta. Lastly, I'm curious to see what other players get called up in the future - will we see the return of Pastore? Will Vietto make it onto this deep attacking unit? Dybala, Lamela, Icardi, Pereyra, Musacchio, Ulloa, and Lanzini should also get looks at some point.
 
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Mugsy's Jock

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Nobody will care about this, but like the old joke in which an old man is asked by a priest why he is confessing to having incredible sex with a teenage whore, "I'm telling everybody".

Went to an amazing World Cup qualifier the other night, where the Philippines Azkals (I think that means "Ghost Dogs") took on heavily-favored North Korea. Philippines was actually already eliminated from World Cup competition, but was playing for a spot in the Asia Cup and also to save head coach Thomas Dooley's job (yes, that Thomas Dooley, from the USMNT). North Korea needed the game to advance in World Cup qualifying, so this American had ample anti-rogue-nation rooting interests beyond my fondness for the Philippines.

My first trip to Rizal Stadium -- an artificial turf field in a broken down old cement stadium with zero concessions and just one bathroom. [Though the bathroom was cleaner than I'd have guessed.] Capacity is something like 20,000...the announced attendance was 7,351 -- which I was told was really good for the PhMNT.

North Korea had the run of play in the first half, but Azkals scored an out-of-nowhere goal in the 40th minute to take a 1-0. Sadly, North Korea equalized on the last play of the first half, and the malaise carried over as the Young-Uns went up 2-1 off a goal-mouth scramble barely two months into the second half. North Korea continued to carry play, and were every bit the chippy/whiney/injury-faking assholes you wanted them to be if you were rooting against them.

With 12 minutes left to go, Dooley brought on Iain Ramsey and the excellently-named James Younghusband in attack, and in the 83rd minute they combined with Manny Ott to even things up. Which was nearly as cool as what happened in the 90th minute, when Ramsey netted the game-winner.

Seeing a home team win an upset come-from-behind international football match was really stirring. And North Korea is out of World Cup 2018. Cool.
 

Titans Bastard

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I didn't realize that Dooley was on the hot seat; I hadn't had an update on him in a while. The Philippines got a brutal (relatively speaking) draw this round; they had improved their ranking enough to move into Pot 3, but then got North Korea who were by far the strongest team in Pot 4. They at least finished ahead of Bahrain, the Pot 2 team.
 

Titans Bastard

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AFC's third round draw came out today. This should be more interesting than the second round, which was a tedious mixture of the region's top dogs and minnows. That being said, it's probably good from a take-your-medicine standpoint. The lesser lights of the AFC could do with more competitive games in WCQ than they'd get from an early exit via a two-legged knockout round.

Group A
Iran
South Korea
Uzbekistan
China
Qatar
Syria

Group B
Australia
Japan
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Iraq
Thailand


The groups seem about equal to me.
 
Dec 21, 2015
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Hard to believe that motley crew gets 4.5 bids, same as CONMEBOL, so that f'ing Uzbekistan may make the finals while Brazil is (currently, after 6 of 18 matches) on the outside looking in.

Highest world ranks for the above crew: Iran (51), Japan (54), South Korea (69), Uzbekistan (71), UAE (80), nobody else below #92.

4 of the 10 CONMEBOL countries are ranked in the top 10, then Uruguay at 20, Ecuador at 31, and the other 4 are ranked 50-70.

Thanks, Sepp.
 

Titans Bastard

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The final round of CAF qualifying has been drawn. African qualifying draws have always been brutally unforgiving, usually with only one country advancing from the final group. In years past, ten group stage winners would move into a final phase in which ultimate qualification would be determined by a two-legged playoff. This time, the field has already been whittled down to 20 countries, so five groups of four will produce five group winners who will head to Russia.

Group A
Tunisia
Libya
DR Congo
Guinea

Group B
Zambia
Cameroon
Algeria
Nigeria

Group C
Gabon
Mali
Ivory Coast
Morocco

Group D
Senegal
South Africa
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde

Group E
Ghana
Egypt
Congo
Uganda

Group B looks like the toughest. Algeria, Cameroon, and Nigeria have all qualified for the last two World Cups, but only one can make it through this round.
 

Infield Infidel

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Yes Zambia won Africa cup of nations in 2012. Group B is brutal. Group A is so weak. There were four pots, Tunisia was weakest in pot 1 and Libya was the weakest team in pot 4. Libya (FIFA ranking 115) is by far the weakest side left.

Not only that but Libya has been playing their home matches in Tunisia. I wonder how they'll deal with that, pretty weird to have home matches played in the road team's country.
 
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Titans Bastard

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UAE won in Japan today, the biggest surprise of the day in the AFC.

Qatar lost 2-0 in Iran and started two Frenchmen of North African descent, an Algerian, two Brazilians, a Cape Verdean, and a Uruguayan -- and four Qataris.
 

Cellar-Door

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UAE won in Japan today, the biggest surprise of the day in the AFC.

Qatar lost 2-0 in Iran and started two Frenchmen of North African descent, an Algerian, two Brazilians, a Cape Verdean, and a Uruguayan -- and four Qataris.
Apparently the ref was a mess in the Japan game, missed a clear Japan goal (no goaline tech in AFC) and didn't give two penalties.
 

trekfan55

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Watching Panama-Jamaica. 1-0 Panama at halftime. Win and they're in the Hex. Won't say more, too scared.

Edit: 2-0 Final!! Hex here we come again
 
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Titans Bastard

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Watching Panama-Jamaica. 1-0 Panama at halftime. Win and they're in the Hex. Won't say more, too scared.

Edit: 2-0 Final!! Hex here we come again
Nice work from Panama. I thought Group B was by far the toughest group from top to bottom, but Costa Rica and Panama dealt with it handily.

Since the 2010 WCQ disaster, the 2011-present run has to be the best five year stretch in Panamanian NT history. Solid (if a bit unfortunate) showing in the 2013 Hex and reaching the SF or better in three straight Gold Cups.


EDIT:

With the US having all but clinched a spot in the Hex, the lineup looks like:

Mexico
USA
Costa Rica
Panama
T&T
Honduras/Canada


It'll be Honduras unless Honduras loses to Mexico and Canada beats El Salvador by enough of a collective margin to erase a five goal GD gap. Canada has a home game and Honduras plays in Azteca, so there's hope for the Canucks. But when the chips are down in WCQs, you never want to bet on Canada.
 

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Denmark just took a deserved lead against Armenia. The game is on FS2 for anyone wanting their soccer fix. Poland are one up against Kazakhstan.
 

Cellar-Door

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Nice to see Big Sam continue the English traditions: Poor squad choices, baffling substitiutions shitting the bed when favored.

I honestly can't believe he made 3 attacking subs and didn't bring on Antonio, the only winger he has who can actually score goals with his head.
 

Titans Bastard

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Kosovo earned a road draw in Finland in their first competitive international match. Not bad work.

Kosovar players previously cap-tied to other countries have been given special dispensation to switch to Kosovo since their country did not exist within FIFA when they made their choice. They've picked up Valon Berisha (Norway), Samir Ujkani (Albania), Milot Rashica (Albania), Alban Meha (Albania), Herolind Shala (Albania), and Albert Bunjaku (Switzerland). They've also added players who have appeared in official youth competitions for other countries like Amir Rrahmani (Albania), Fanol Perdedaj (Germany), Hekuran Kryeziu (Switzerland), Bersant Celina (Norway), Sinan Bytyqi (Austria), and Vedat Muriqi (Albania).

Not a lineup of world-beaters by any stretch, but they've seeded their NT decently compared to what you might expect.

It looks like Fanol Perdedaj is their all-time most capped player....with 7 appearances.