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Week 6 - Chiefs @ Patriots

Discussion in '2018 Patriots Game Threads' started by Ralphwiggum, Oct 11, 2018 at 8:28 AM.

  1. Ralphwiggum

    Ralphwiggum Member SoSH Member

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    4,543
    The Zombie Pats are at it again. Just 11 days ago they were 1-2 and almost in a must-win situation as the 3-0 Dolphins came to Gillette. Here we sit less than two weeks later and the Pats are back where they are accustomed to being, in first place in the AFC East. But, while convincing wins against the Dolphins and Colts were good to see in order to know that the Pats aren't bad yet, we don't really know whether they are good yet either. Seems like the perfect time for a test game against one of the big boys in the league.

    Enter the Chiefs. 5-0 and looking every bit like the best team in the AFC, and one of top couple of teams in the League. Pat Mahomes looks like the real deal, a cannon for an arm with accuracy and can make every throw he needs to make, and he can make plays with his legs too. Add in the fact that he has weapons all over the field, and this offense looks like a nightmare match-up for any team, never mind the Pats D who has struggled at times with every team this year who didn't have Ryan Tannehill at QB. This is the same Chiefs team that absolutely gutted the Pats last year in a nationally televised game, except they have upgraded from Smith to Mahomes at the most important position on the field.

    How to slow down the Chiefs? Can we realistically expect the Pats to do that? Or is this just going to be like the Super Bowl where it is the first team to 40 and let's hope the other guy makes one more mistake on offense than you do. The Pats looked great on offense last week and would have looked even greater without a couple of fluky tipped INTs. But, fluky or not, that stuff has to be gone this week. Mistakes on offense letting the Chiefs defense off the hook is not a recipe for success this week.

    On the flip side the Pats should be able to move the ball and put up points on the Chiefs D, so all of the football world is expecting a shootout . . . which probably means we'll get a 17-14 game or something.

    The good news is this game is at home. I am excited to see the Pats offense continue to come together with Edelman having another week under his belt, and the continued emergence (hopefully) of Josh Gordon. A loss isn't the end of the world for the Pats playoff chances but will put them effectively 4 games behind the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC and with losses to the Jags and Chiefs, a bye starts looking a little tough. A win on the other hand and it is time to start talking about how the Dynasty may not be over just quite yet.

    Go Pats! Fuck the Chiefs.
     
  2. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This would appear to be a week where one would really hope that the Blade crowd would be in peak voice. But I fear that the Sox game may act to reduce crowd noise A) by some regulars being at Fenway rather than Gillette, and B) as a distraction for those at the stadium who might be monitoring the Sox.
    This is also the time for someone to trot out the “Belichick vs first-time QBs.”
     
  3. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    11,387
    Good test for Pats D. They did OK against Frank Reich's depleted Colts but have given up 40+ to Reid's teams twice in the last four seasons, plus 40 to Reid disciple Doug Peterson. If they can keep KC in the 20's, I'll be pretty happy.
     
  4. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  5. Old Fart Tree

    Old Fart Tree the maven of meat Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Wow. That surprises me.
     
  6. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    I was shocked to see that line, but as a Pats fan you kind of have to love it.

    Vegas isn't in the business of giving away money, and KC +3.5 looks like free money to the casual bettor. We know how that usually ends up.
     
  7. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    This game has all the markings of a 45-42 kind of deal. As Ralphwiggum pointed out, this probably means both defenses go crazy and it's a 17-14 finish.

    I also think that it's impossible to not take the Chiefs with the 3.5 points. I think a good bet is for KC to win outright.

    But all that is to say that it probably means that the Patriots win by two touchdowns.

    I mean, who the heck knows what's going to happen. I'd like to think they find a way to slow Mahomes down, and the Pats' offense puts up 38 again, like they have the last two weeks. KC's defense is really bad, allowing 25.8 points, 461.8 yards, and 28.4 first downs per game. On the road they've allowed 29.3 points and 467 yards per game. They managed to hold Jacksonville to just 14 points last week but that's due to the 5 turnovers they caused. In that game they allowed 502 yards, which is more (at home) than NE allowed Jacksonville to have (in Jax).

    It seems really hard to imagine how KC's defense is going to slow down the Patriots' offense. NE should put up 35+ on this team. Will that be enough though? The Pats are averaging 34.3 points a game at home. Thankfully the game is in Foxboro.

    I still think KC wins, because they seem to give NE all sorts of problems. But it wouldn't shock me to see NE do what NE does and assert themselves as still the best team in the AFC.
     
  8. pvg44

    pvg44 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    512
    Very long suffering Chiefs fan here. I honestly started rooting for them on January 4, 1970, age 4 years and 6 days. My Dad liked Len Dawson and thus so did I. Little did I know that day would be the pinnacle of success. I should probably start the adopt-a-team thread for them.

    Regarding this game, Reid does probably the best job of any coach in the NFL to scheme against Belichik. The spread offense has allowed KC to move the ball up and down the field and score on big plays without getting bogged down in the red zone. The playoff game a few years ago was the big exception in that KC dominated the clock but scored only 17 points. From a NE defensive standpoint, if they can get KC into red zone possessions they (NE) will probably win the game by forcing field goals.

    On the other side of the ball, KC's defense is to bend as far as possible without breaking. They have no interior pass rush or presence in the middle of any kind and I expect NE to exploit that. And with Houston injured, the only real pass rush will come on the outside from Dee Ford, who will be a factor until his inevitable 3rd quarter [groin strain/oblique strain/lower back injury]. Chris Jones may pose a problem but he will probably be double-teamed. Somehow KC's D is 2nd in the NFL in 3rd conversion % (~29%); I'm befuddled as to how this can be given their inability to rush the pass, stop the run, or tackle.
     
  9. BusRaker

    BusRaker lurker

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    I definitely think the punters could be deactivated this week, but with two bend-and-don't break defenses I see a lot of prolonged drives with some ending up as field goals, thus a very high first down to score ratio and maybe 20 something to 20 something at the end of the night.
     
  10. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Sony Michel rode the bike at today's practice. I hope this is just the Patriots' way of reducing his workload during the week to keep his knees right.
     
  11. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Joe West will be the crew chief
     
  12. Bowhemian

    Bowhemian Member SoSH Member

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    :unsure:
     
  13. kartvelo

    kartvelo Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He's metastasizing to football.
     
  14. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    Loving all the Kelce is better than Gronk talk. Also love Houston not practicing yet. If he can't go Brady should be in a rocking chair most of the night.

    Key will be long sustained drives by NE offense to tire out KC D and keep their D fresh for the 4th Q when they will need to make a play or two. That and red zone execution on both sides of the ball.

    Pats defensive game plan will be fascinating. You need to keep KC in front of you yet they can pick you apart with all those weapons. Hunt also has a very favorable matchup against our LBs.

    My guess is Gilmore on Watkins 1-1 most of the game allowing them to bracket Kelce and put a S over the top on Hill while the corner presses him. Clayborn being disciplined is also going to be key. Too many times he has lost contain rushing the passer. If he does that Sunday night Mahommes could rush for 100yds while throwing for another 300.
     
  15. eustis22

    eustis22 lurker

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    my gut tells me the Pats get waxed.

    it's rarely right, this gut o' mine.
     
  16. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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  17. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Oh boy, Chiefs are down 1 offensive weapon. De'Anthony Thomas broke his leg today in practice.

     
  18. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    I’m stunned, you’re usually so optimistic.
     
  19. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    Everyone is questionable.

    No doubtful or out players.

    DT Malcom Brown - Knee (LP)
    WR Josh Gordon - Hamstring (LP)
    DE Geneo Grissom - Ankle (LP)
    TE Rob Gronkowski - Ankle (LP)
    WR Chris Hogan - Thigh (LP)
    RB Sony Michel - Knee (LP)
    CB Eric Rowe - Groin (LP)
    DT Danny Shelton - Elbow (LP)
    DE John Simon - Shoulder (LP)”
     
  20. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Eric Berry's replacement, Eric Murray, is out Sunday so they are down to their 3rd string safety. Justin Houston is listed as doubtful.
     
  21. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    This just screams monster Gronk game.
     
  22. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    The Chiefs are hurting so badly in their secondary that they had wide receiver Marcus Kemp practicing at safety this week.

     
  23. MetSox1

    MetSox1 Member SoSH Member

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    If they sign Troy Brown off the street imma be pisssssssed.
     
  24. normstalls

    normstalls Member SoSH Member

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    When you are referencing High School stats, you know you are in trouble
     
  25. normstalls

    normstalls Member SoSH Member

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    3,003
  26. Soxy Brown

    Soxy Brown Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    4,083
  27. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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  28. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    36-2? Meh!
     
  29. Soxy Brown

    Soxy Brown Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    That just goes to further show why it's a cherry picked stat. Just say that the Patriots are 56-6 at home when Edelman plays. Or say that Brady's record at home is 129-22. Those are more honest stats and equally (if not more) impressive.

    There's no need to stretch the truth to say that beating the Brady/Belichick Patriots in Foxboro is hard. Everyone knows that and the facts speak for themselves.
     
  30. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Have a good feeling about this one. Did not think I would a couple weeks back.
     
  31. lostjumper

    lostjumper Member SoSH Member

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    First team to 50 wins!!
     
  32. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Ian Rappoport saying that Michel will be a game-time decision (knee).
     
  33. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    This is where I’m at too. I’m pessimistic they can hold them in the 20’s. I want to be wrong.

    He’s on the IR with a deeply bruised right breast.
     
  34. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    I fear his career will be a giant game-time decision.
     
  35. reggiecleveland

    reggiecleveland sublime Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I know. Guy that made the NFL was good at everything in high school. Shocking. I mean I would not be surprised if he hit .490 and averaged 25pts/gm, as was maybe good enough to run the relay.
     
  36. Mystic Merlin

    Mystic Merlin Member SoSH Member

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    27,533
    Gonna need to force 2-3 turnovers to keep KC within striking distance. I think their ability to challenge defenses outside the hash marks with their speed is gonna be a massive problem for a defense that lacks sideline to sideline speed at LB and DE.

    They’re gonna have to ask a lot of the tackles to keep Hunt - who I don’t expect them to load the box on because of Hill and Watkins’ speed - from running roughshod.
     
  37. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Eh, it's still a pretty cool stat to find some combination of players that is 36-0.
     
  38. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    I'm calling Pats 41, Chiefs 33. Pats D with a lot of bending.

    Gronk 12/197/3
    White 9/145/1 (receiving)
    Brady goes for 502
     
  39. Deathofthebambino

    Deathofthebambino Drive Carefully SoSH Member

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    I think the Pats need to treat the KC offense the same way they did the Miami offense. Like Miami, KC has a ton of speed on the outside, and in that game, the Pats basically dared Miami to throw it underneath or run the ball. They did neither. If there is one flaw I've noticed in Mahomes game, he's always looking for the home run ball downfield. As a result, he tends to hold it a bit longer than he should sometimes. Take away the downfield throws, and keep him contained in the pocket, and I think the pass rush can get to him, and/or he may get frustrated and make a mistake. If they start dinking and dunking and running the ball, so be it, give up those yards and stiffen up the red zone, but you can't let them get going with big plays.
     
  40. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I thought not. I thought we could run the ball down their throats and shorten this game.

    Then came the Michel news.
     
  41. Soxy Brown

    Soxy Brown Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    KC's pass defense is awful. They've allowed three 400+ yard passers in five games. Even if Michel was 100%, I doubt the Pats would try to run the ball down their throat and shorten the game. Brady should shred this team.
     
  42. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    18,731
    Yeah, you could just as easily flip the “need turnovers” thing from KC’s perspective. This Pats offense is probably at least as good as KC’s as now constructed.
     
  43. Mugsy's Jock

    Mugsy's Jock Longtime Member Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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  44. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Projecting Inactives: Brian Schwenke, Geneo Grissom, Keionta Davis, Cole Croston, Derek Rivers, Jacob Hollister, Chris Hogan
     
  45. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    Hogan is healthy so it would need to be a healthy scratch.
     
  46. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I like the result you predict but you could not have picked a more annoying score
     
  47. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    Malcolm Brown is inactive. No other major contributors on the inactive list.

     
  48. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Inactives
    Cole Croston
    Ted Karras
    John Simon
    Malcom Brown
    Geneo Grisson
    JC Jackson
    Keionta Davis
     
  49. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    Woot woot, Michel in
     
  50. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Hogan was questionable with a thigh injury. He wouldn't have been a healthy scratch.
     

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