What is Swihart worth?

Pozo the Clown

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He also also hit .187/.261/.284 over 250 PAs in Pawtucket and rookie league ball in 2017. Of course there are still questions about his bat.
Per the link below: Swihart: "It felt like I couldn't use my body the way I wanted. I just didn't have the mobility. It was hard to walk at times."

If a healthy Swihart put up those 2017 numbers, there would be MAJOR questions about his bat. Being that he was having difficulty walking, I'm inclined to heavily discount those numbers. A healthy Swihart has significant offensive upside vs. Leon. I'd hate to see that potential realized in anything other than a Red Sox uni.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/boston_red_soxs_blake_swihart_11.html
 

chawson

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Per the link below: Swihart: "It felt like I couldn't use my body the way I wanted. I just didn't have the mobility. It was hard to walk at times."

If a healthy Swihart put up those 2017 numbers, there would be MAJOR questions about his bat. Being that he was having difficulty walking, I'm inclined to heavily discount those numbers. A healthy Swihart has significant offensive upside vs. Leon. I'd hate to see that potential realized in anything other than a Red Sox uni.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/boston_red_soxs_blake_swihart_11.html
Yeah, I know he was hurt. That’s why it’s necessary for him to show a healthy and productive season at the plate and in the field.
 

timlinin8th

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That's us, right? Leon ranked 48th of 58 among catchers with at least 150 PA (arbitrary number) last year with a 67 wRC+. His career number of 77 would've ranked 43rd. He had a fantastic 2016, but I don't think anybody believes we'll see anything close to that again.
This is all why the answer to the thread question is that whatever Swihart is worth to other teams and would net in a trade, he’s worth more to the Red Sox.

The Sox could “sell high” on him but he’s unlikely to really bring a major piece back, so really, what they lose or gain if he busts isn’t going to be all that much. If he is healthy and ends up being good, he fills a huge need this team has.
 

chawson

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chawson, I don't think you're using the phrase "moving the goalposts like crazy" properly. I do commend you on moving the goalposts like crazy properly, though.

Let's flip this. If you think there are so many questions remaining about Swihart's bat, as well as the ones that certainly do exist about his ability to field his position effectively, then why do you state this:



Why is it a waste when it's obvious how the Red Sox could use him? Or why you think this:



Why is Eickhoff and his minimum salary and MLB career 107 ERA+ worth only an enigma wrapped in a riddle? Or even this:



Why does the lone figure of Sandy Leon and his career 77 OPS+ define "mightily blocked" in your opinion?

There have been other people advocating for keeping Swihart, not just me. Other reasons have been given, not just mine. I'll gladly be letting others carry the torch now.
You’d rather “flip this” than reconsider your claim Swihart’s got nothing to prove? Shocking.

To answer some of your rhetorical parries: The premise of this thread is that the Sox have Leon, who’s valued as a backup. If he’s gone, it’s an easier equation. Still, Swihart might have more value to another club than a part-timer here, and there’s reason to give Vazquez 450 PAs.

If a GM thinks Swihart’s a 2-win player, trading three or four years of a flawed guy like Eickhoff or Folty for five of Swihart is reasonable. If Pom is hurt, it’s probably smart for us.

By “mightily blocked,” I mean by Nunez, Leon, and everyone else that contributes to the 100-150 PAs you and I have brainstormed he’d collect. If he’s the former top prospect you think he is (and I don’t disagree with you), he deserves much more than Leon’s PAs.

If you like him enough to keep him, fine. But you can’t argue his present and future utility surpasses all possible trade options.
 
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Dewey'sCannon

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As others have opined, I think he's worth more to the Sox than what he would currently bring back in a trade. So keep him.

I think there's a better than even chance that he supplants Leon as the #2 catcher within the next year. And I'm not completely sold yet on Vasquez as the long-term starter - the defense has been god, but not quite elite, and there are probably still as many questions about his bat as there are about Swihart's, without the same upside. So I still think there's a chance Swihart eventually ends up as the #1, or in a 50/50 share with Vasquez.
 

joe dokes

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As others have opined, I think he's worth more to the Sox than what he would currently bring back in a trade. So keep him.

I think there's a better than even chance that he supplants Leon as the #2 catcher within the next year. And I'm not completely sold yet on Vasquez as the long-term starter - the defense has been god, but not quite elite, and there are probably still as many questions about his bat as there are about Swihart's, without the same upside. So I still think there's a chance Swihart eventually ends up as the #1, or in a 50/50 share with Vasquez.
You have high standards.;)
 

Jerry’s Curl

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The Sox are in a position this year where they need defense and quality game calling behind the plate more than offense from the C position. All of our starters have a rapport with both Vazquez and Leon. Blake would need time behind the plate this year in order to continue his career as a catcher in Boston. As another year goes buy, Blake has less experience behind the plate and is a year older. I think his value to the team this year is as the third catcher and utility man. Next year, he’s still fighting for the backup catcher role.

His appeal to younger teams that aren’t contenders is the unlocked potential he has at a cheap price. If DD could pry a good prospect away for Blake, I’d consider that also. Or he could be dealt during the season if the Sox needed a veteran-type starter for an injury.
 

grimshaw

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As others have opined, I think he's worth more to the Sox than what he would currently bring back in a trade. So keep him.

I think there's a better than even chance that he supplants Leon as the #2 catcher within the next year. And I'm not completely sold yet on Vasquez as the long-term starter - the defense has been god, but not quite elite, and there are probably still as many questions about his bat as there are about Swihart's, without the same upside. So I still think there's a chance Swihart eventually ends up as the #1, or in a 50/50 share with Vasquez.
I think there is a chance too as catchers traditionally take longer to be finished products and a lot of his development was stunted. Varitek wasn't even an effective big league player until he was 27.
 

chawson

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While I'd wanted this thread to be a huddle that explored what Swihart might be worth in a trade, I'm not against keeping him, and raising the question shouldn't imply that.

But keeping him would mean Vazquez should be on the block. My preferences notwithstanding, I think the Sox want to see what Vazquez could do with a two-thirds backstop timeshare, and while it's intangible as hell, I think there's reason to believe that it couldn't hurt his production to have Cora, a fellow Puerto Rican, at the helm.

So that leaves Swihart with Leon's at-bats this year (if we trade or release Leon). I think a healthy and productive Swihart is better than that, and has the pedigree to back it up. He can't be sent down, so keeping him on the team as a 25th man who pinch-hits and collects 100-150 PAs feels like kind of a waste, especially after two lost years.

Meanwhile, Leon is Sale and Porcello's personal catcher and by several accounts considered by management a positive influence on young pitchers. He's also totally playable against LHP. I'm not sure it's certain he's gone.
 

shaggydog2000

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While I'd wanted this thread to be a huddle that explored what Swihart might be worth in a trade, I'm not against keeping him, and raising the question shouldn't imply that.

But keeping him would mean Vazquez should be on the block. My preferences notwithstanding, I think the Sox want to see what Vazquez could do with a two-thirds backstop timeshare, and while it's intangible as hell, I think there's reason to believe that it couldn't hurt his production to have Cora, a fellow Puerto Rican, at the helm.

So that leaves Swihart with Leon's at-bats this year (if we trade or release Leon). I think a healthy and productive Swihart is better than that, and has the pedigree to back it up. He can't be sent down, so keeping him on the team as a 25th man who pinch-hits and collects 100-150 PAs feels like kind of a waste, especially after two lost years.

Meanwhile, Leon is Sale and Porcello's personal catcher and by several accounts considered by management a positive influence on young pitchers. He's also totally playable against LHP. I'm not sure it's certain he's gone.
If Swihart keeps hitting, they find a place in the lineup for him. That's how things work.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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If Swihart keeps hitting, they find a place in the lineup for him. That's how things work.
It’s spring and he hasn’t exactly faced elite pitching. I’m happy for him that he’s had a good spring but we aren’t sure what we’re going to get when the season starts, especially with a part-time player.
 

Saints Rest

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Other than last year, the Sox have basically had 3 catchers sharing AB over the course of a season. Looking back 5 years, 4 of those 5 years (with 2017 being the exception) had 3 guys with over 150 AB ( except in one season where the low guy was about 85). The high AB was Salty in 2013 with about 490.

I think it's not unreasonable, without any deals, to see Vaz come in around 350, Leon around 175, and Swihart around 100. 100 AB would likely end up around 25 GS and the rest in sub situations. If Swihart can prove his merit behind the dish in those 25 or so games, and if Leon has remained the non-hitter we was in every season other than 2016, then I think we could see a Vaz/Swihart split in 2019. And that possibility, I think, is valuable enough to be worth holding onto Blake in 2018.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It is worth pointing out (again) that this team presently has three catchers on the 40-man roster and the guys slated to begin the year at Pawtucket and Portland don't exactly inspire a lot of confidence should they need to be selected to the roster. Unless the deal brings back a reasonable 3rd catcher who can be shuttled, I don't think the team can afford to trade or release any of the catchers right now. Even if that means "wasting" one of them on the end of the bench five out of every seven days.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Other than last year, the Sox have basically had 3 catchers sharing AB over the course of a season. Looking back 5 years, 4 of those 5 years (with 2017 being the exception) had 3 guys with over 150 AB ( except in one season where the low guy was about 85). The high AB was Salty in 2013 with about 490.

I think it's not unreasonable, without any deals, to see Vaz come in around 350, Leon around 175, and Swihart around 100. 100 AB would likely end up around 25 GS and the rest in sub situations. If Swihart can prove his merit behind the dish in those 25 or so games, and if Leon has remained the non-hitter we was in every season other than 2016, then I think we could see a Vaz/Swihart split in 2019. And that possibility, I think, is valuable enough to be worth holding onto Blake in 2018.
This reflects my thinking as well. If it were my decision, I would go into the season planning on Vaz for 50-60% of the starts, with Leon and Swihart splitting the rest pretty evenly. And then making any adjustments based on how each is playing (both offensively and defensively) and the extent to which Blake is getting time at other positions (which I expect will only be sporadic).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Did Blake ever solve his minor case of the yips when throwing back to the pitcher? And even if he did, is he someone you could rely upon to catch a majority of games at catcher in case of injury?

I like him more than Leon but there has to be some questions about his ability to catch. I think he'll hit just fine.
 
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gryoung

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Did Blake ever solve his minor case of the yips when throwing back to the pitcher? And even if he did, is he someone you could rely upon to catch a majority of games at catcher in case of injury?

I like him more than Leon but there has to be some questions about his ability to catch. I think he'll hit just fine.
Didn’t he catch in the AFL last year?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He's also played at least half a dozen games behind the plate in spring training (including today) so far and nary a mention of throwing issues. I don't think it's an issue for him anymore.
 

tonyarmasjr

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I don't want to dump Leon tomorrow, but if they did trade him and then find themselves with a need for another catcher in July, how hard would it be to find his replacement?

The nice thing about keeping Swihart as the 2nd catcher is that it would allow them to have a real 4th OF on the bench. As it stands, if one of the Bs has to come out of a game, they either have to put an non-OF out there or use JD there and lose the DH.
It is worth pointing out (again) that this team presently has three catchers on the 40-man roster and the guys slated to begin the year at Pawtucket and Portland don't exactly inspire a lot of confidence should they need to be selected to the roster. Unless the deal brings back a reasonable 3rd catcher who can be shuttled, I don't think the team can afford to trade or release any of the catchers right now. Even if that means "wasting" one of them on the end of the bench five out of every seven days.
I'm not a big fan of Dan Butler or anything, but I really don't think there's much of a difference between him and Leon other than the specter of Leon's 2016. They both have a solid defensive reputation and are well below average as hitters. Steamer and ZiPS have them both between a 69 and 76 wRC+ in 2018.
Leon AAA: .255/.343/.376/.720, 10 HR, 21 2B, 56 BB, 95 K in 498 PA
Butler AAA: .252/.335/.391/.726, 30 HR, 90 2B, 151 BB, 300 K in 1499 PA

Leon Minors: .238/.325/.330/.654, 24 HR, 92 2B, 253 BB, 404 K in 2319 PA
Butler Minors: .256/.347/.402/.749, 55 HR, 162 2B, 283 BB, 489 K in 2707 PA

I think Leon is utterly replaceable by Butler. If they get into the season and feel Swihart needs more ABs and can handle part-time C duties, I wouldn't have a problem with them moving Leon.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The problem with Butler is the same as with the rest: no options. If they were to bring him up in the case of an injury, they would have to DFA him to get him off the roster again. What they need is a catcher with options that can be shuttled as needed. Maybe that's Hernandez but it seems to soon for that.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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The problem with Butler is the same as with the rest: no options. If they were to bring him up in the case of an injury, they would have to DFA him to get him off the roster again. What they need is a catcher with options that can be shuttled as needed. Maybe that's Hernandez but it seems to soon for that.
Yeah, I really don't see where the sense of urgency in "sorting out" the Swihart situation is coming from. To start the year Nunez is the full time 2nd baseman and Swihart is in the Nunez role. If he hits while Pedey recovers, he'll take some at bats away from Nunez when he shifts to the utility role, and if he shows he can handle catching 2 days a week, he'll take at bats away from Leon as well.

If we get to June and have a bench of Moreland/Hanley, Nunez, Swihart, Leon with Lin on the shuttle, that's actually pretty nice. Between Nunez, Swihart and JDM at DH, they can cover every defensive position on the field (with Benintendi or Mookie moving to center when any of those three play a game at corner outfield to give JBJ a rest).

Yes, they'd lack a defensive specialist for late inning replacements in the infield, but I don't think that's all that big of a deal. Nunez is still an improvement defensively over Devers if Devers doesn't take a step forward, and having Moreland at 1st late in games actually mitigates the main concern there anyway (throws). Sure, Bogaerts might not get to a ball in the hole that Marrero would have nabbed a few times this year, but having his bat come up in the 8th or 9th instead of Marrero's may balance that out anyway.

If the end result of this logjam is that they have to DFA (and likely lose) Marrero and they need to either cut or trade Holt away, I'm not losing any sleep over it. Especially since the upside is Swihart maybe eventually replacing Leon as the backup catcher.
 

Harry Hooper

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No guarantees, but the odds of Butler passing through DFA process unclaimed would be pretty good.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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No guarantees, but the odds of Butler passing through DFA process unclaimed would be pretty good.
Right, but he's at a stage where he doesn't have to accept the assignment after the DFA. So even if he passes through waivers, he could be gone. Not that he'd be any great loss, but it essentially makes him a one-time use option.

All I'm saying is that if the team only has two catchers on the 40-man (because they've traded/released one of Swihart, Leon, and Vazquez), they need a better injury insurance plan than Dan Butler. Which is why until they have that, there should be no rush to move any of the catchers on the roster.
 

chawson

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It's a Cafardo fetish and so intrinsically suspect, but there's evidence Sox pitchers highly value Leon's presence and preparation—particularly Chris Sale. It might not be as simple as swapping him for Butler (or Hernandez, or Geovany Soto, or Dioner Navarro, or any other freely available AAAA catcher).
 

grimshaw

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This isn't a team that necessarily needs platoons either other than an occasional match up, so the bench is almost exclusively for giving guys breathers. Swihart fits for the one offensive weak spot since you can pinch hit for catchers late in games and he can run for them too.

His role is perfect for this team as long as the other reserve guys can cover other positions. If Leon or Vazquez gets DL'd and Swihart shines, then he may finally get his shot.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
It's a Cafardo fetish and so intrinsically suspect, but there's evidence Sox pitchers highly value Leon's presence and preparation—particularly Chris Sale. It might not be as simple as swapping him for Butler (or Hernandez, or Geovany Soto, or Dioner Navarro, or any other freely available AAAA catcher).
Chris Sale was an outstanding pitcher before he got to pitch to Sandy Leon, and I have no doubt he'll continue to be an outstanding pitcher after he can no longer pitch to Sandy Leon (or if he isn't, that won't be the reason). Respecting his wish to have Leon caddy him as long as Leon is on the roster is fine, but letting that wish drive personnel decisions would be nuts.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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For what it's worth, first start in an MLB game this spring and Sale is throwing to Vazquez today. I believe I've seen elsewhere that the plan is for Sale to work with Vazquez more to break out of the "needs Leon to be at his best" trap.
 

Bergs

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Chris Sale was an outstanding pitcher before he got to pitch to Sandy Leon, and I have no doubt he'll continue to be an outstanding pitcher after he can no longer pitch to Sandy Leon (or if he isn't, that won't be the reason). Respecting his wish to have Leon caddy him as long as Leon is on the roster is fine, but letting that wish drive personnel decisions would be nuts.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Thanks, bergs. Looks like the proof isn’t in the pudding....this time it’s in the chicken parm.
 

Martin and Woods

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Er, not sure that was so much Wakefield's wish as it was Theo's, "Holy shite we need someone who can catch the knuckleballer before Varitek keels over from running to the backstop so often." That's not a direct quote, I'm paraphrasing.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Er, not sure that was so much Wakefield's wish as it was Theo's, "Holy shite we need someone who can catch the knuckleballer before Varitek keels over from running to the backstop so often." That's not a direct quote, I'm paraphrasing.
Right. There's a difference between possessing a specific defensive skill that the alternatives clearly lack, and just being the guy somebody likes to work with.

Also, Mirabelli was actually a league-average hitter over his years with the Sox (or at least within spitting distance of it). And he wasn't blocking anybody (well, Bard, sorta kinda, in his final year, but Bard was a 28-year-old ex-prospect and I don't recall that anybody really thought he was the answer to anything.)
 

Pozo the Clown

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Chris Sale was an outstanding pitcher before he got to pitch to Sandy Leon, and I have no doubt he'll continue to be an outstanding pitcher after he can no longer pitch to Sandy Leon (or if he isn't, that won't be the reason). Respecting his wish to have Leon caddy him as long as Leon is on the roster is fine, but letting that wish drive personnel decisions would be nuts.
Rumor has it that this "song stylist" once had a gig as some "Lefty's" personal caddy.

 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Right. There's a difference between possessing a specific defensive skill that the alternatives clearly lack, and just being the guy somebody likes to work with.

Also, Mirabelli was actually a league-average hitter over his years with the Sox (or at least within spitting distance of it). And he wasn't blocking anybody (well, Bard, sorta kinda, in his final year, but Bard was a 28-year-old ex-prospect and I don't recall that anybody really thought he was the answer to anything.)
I'm not sure you're remembering the sequence of events very well. Bard may have been an ex-prospect, but he was Cleveland's ex-prospect. He was never sorta kinda blocked by Mirabelli. Perhaps you're confusing him with Kelly Shoppach, who was traded for Bard as part of the same deal that brought in Coco Crisp.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Rumor has it that this "song stylist" once had a gig as some "Lefty's" personal caddy.

McCarver was a good hitter, for a catcher, and an average hitter for anybody. He was only Carlton's caddy (in the sense that he got most or all of his catching starts when Carlton pitched) for the last 4-5 years of his career, and he had a 117 OPS+ for this stretch, getting occasional starts at first base and lots of PH duty because his bat was still good enough to make it worthwhile to find opportunities for him. There was probably never a time when the Phillies were faced with a situation where the only reason to keep McCarver on the roster was because Carlton wanted him.

None of this is anything like the situation with Leon. Leon is a fungible backup-catcher type with well below-average offense, and it's questionable whether there's any reason other than his rapport with Sale (and the organization's shortage of MLB-ready catching depth) why the Sox would hesitate to let him go.

And FWIW, Carlton actually got better, and started a four-year late-career resurgence, the year McCarver retired.