What’s it all about, Rafi?

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Rafi’s gradual descent to replacement level has seemed inevitable for weeks, and now he’s there. He is lowest or close among qualified 3B in OPS and other hitting stats. Whether Nunez or something else, we can find replacement level third base or at least something close. If his value to the big club essentially neutral or close, it’s time to start asking what is best for his long term development?

I suppose playing every day against big league talent under Alex Cora will have advantages, but on the other hand the games are too important to allow Rafi to work on things he might need to work on free from the pressure of having to produce every single at bat.

The thing that stands out most about Devers this year is his patience. After 30 days of epic non-selectivity, we heard of the Chipotle gift card program. And it seemed to pay short term dividends. In eight games, Rafi walked seven times — more than double his walks in the past month. But, the patience didn’t seem to help his hitting. In fact, it made it worse. He was getting walks but he wasn’t any more selective. He only hit .133 during that stretch. The implication, based on a small sample admittedly, is that he’s not really being more selective. He’s just choosing not to swing.

And that seems confirmed by the fact that he seems to have completely abandoned the approach, and he’s back to swinging at everything. He hasn’t come that close to a walk in a week. And frustration is starting to seep through his ordinary happy go lucky way and demeanor. My concern is that he is screwing himself into the ground and getting caught in the switches. Also, there’s the fielding. He’s fighting through it pretty well but he seems like every throw could be the start of a case of the yips.

He hits the ball really hard. So, when he gets a hold of one, it has a chance to lead to good things. And this makes it so that he can be formidable enough from the left side to earn his keep on the big club. But we need this guy to be better long term. Where should he be learning how to tell a ball from a strike and to throw a ball to first base?

Edit: Welp, in the time it took to write that, Pedey goes to the DL likely ending any thought of Rafi going anywhere. So, discussion likely postponed. But I’m not sure we have a proper Rafi thread, so there it is for whatever it’s worth.

 

[uncannymanny]

Baseball games.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

But seriously, here's a breakdownof his problems: https://redsoxunfiltered.com/2018/06/02/rafael-devers-struggles/.

One of the issues I'm sure is that he's never had to make adjustments before. It seems pretty clear how to pitch him; question is how is he going to adjust back.

 

[Al Zarilla]

In the old days, they'd call it a sophomore slump. But it's not the old days, so, looking at his advanced batting stats on Fangraphs, his GB/FB ratio is better this year, Line Drive % is a tad worse but hard hit % is better. Nothing alarming I can find, except his BABIP was .342 last year and is .276 this year. That is a pretty, pretty large discrepancy, no?

Edit, I see Wade Bogg's article points out the big BABIP decline also.

 

[ehaz]

Trade for old man Beltre at the deadline and have him fight for a shot at his first ring.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

But seriously, here's a breakdownof his problems: https://redsoxunfiltered.com/2018/06/02/rafael-devers-struggles/.

One of the issues I'm sure is that he's never had to make adjustments before. It seems pretty clear how to pitch him; question is how is he going to adjust back.

In the old days, they'd call it a sophomore slump. But it's not the old days, so, looking at his advanced batting stats on Fangraphs, his GB/FB ratio is better this year, Line Drive % is a tad worse but hard hit % is better. Nothing alarming I can find, except his BABIP was .342 last year and is .276 this year. That is a pretty, pretty large discrepancy, no?

Edit, I see Wade Bogg's article points out the big BABIP decline also.

Yeah, I think the reason for the decline is well articulated in that article and the question for me is where should he fix it. Here or Pawtucket?

And, actually, I think that article actually understates the importance of plate discipline. I think it's very likely the number one issue. All of Devers' plate discipline numbers are worse this year and all are well below average based on the fangraphs averages. https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/

We don't even need numbers though -- the fact that his manager is giving him burritos to take pitches kind of already says it. But one number that stands out -- and this is consistent with the article WBCD posted, is how few balls in the strike zone he's seeing. Zone% is just 40.9. He's seeing fewer balls in the strike zone but swinging at more pitches. This is not good, and it's a reason that the lower BABIP is not really much of a cause for comfort. It's harder to make good contact when pitchers know they can get you out without throwing strikes.

So, anyway, my hypothesis is that Rafi is lost when it comes to plate discipline and recognizing balls and strikes. And it's not getting better. If my hypothesis is right, the question is where is the right place to work on plate discipline? MLB or AAA? I think there are many issues that can be played through and improved upon in MLB, but I'm skeptical whether plate discipline is one of them. And that's really my question. In AAA, nobody really cares if you look at strike three right down the middle. In MLB, it's like you messed around with the manager's spouse. In MLB, you get a split second longer to recognize pitches and you're dealing with more guys who have less deception or they wouldn't be there. I applaud Cora's creative approach. But the batting average numbers even when he's taking walks suggest that Rafi is hearing this more as "don't swing," not "don't swing at bad pitches."

If Rafi were more than a league replacement run producer or more than a replacement level run preventer, then sure, unless he's getting terrible habits you can try to see all year if he can figure it out in the big leagues. But the question for me -- and I think my suspected answer is probably coming through -- is whether 30 or 60 games in the minors could really make a difference.

The kid has had all of 38 AAA at bats for Pete's sake. It's really starting to show.

 

[4-6-3]

Another issue is his defense. If he was hitting well, you might be able to overlook some defensive miscues but if he's not providing offense, then he's not really contributing on either side of the ball. He needs development and to your point, does he work through those issues at the big league level or AAA. There would be less pressure in AAA than in a major league pennant race.

 

[rhswanzey]

Let's option Devers with the idea that it's +/- three weeks down to clear his head, get going and rebuild confidence. In the meantime, we can run a Marrero/Nunez platoon - Nunez can hit for Marrero late, then use Holt at 3B. Marrero as PR/DR for Nunez in starts against righties.

Oh wait..

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

There’s no way he should be sent to AAA to get AB’s against inferior pitching. I’m confident that he’ll eventually adjust to ML pitchers... but not by playing against crappier pitchers... then trying to play catch-up again when he gets promoted.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

He hasn't been nearly bad enough offensively to send down. You let him continue to learn in the majors.

 

[oumbi]

If Devers goes to Pawtucket, I am not sure whom to call up as a replacement, if anyone. Travis has never played a game at third as a pro. Lin would be a candidate for third and infield depth. No one else I saw on Sox Prospecdts who qualifies as a third baseman is even close to the majors.

 

[EricFeczko]

He hasn't been nearly bad enough offensively to send down. You let him continue to learn in the majors.

Absolutely, I'm baffled by anyone suggesting otherwise.

If Devers goes to Pawtucket, I am not sure whom to call up as a replacement, if anyone. Travis has never played a game at third as a pro. Lin would be a candidate for third and infield depth. No one else I saw on Sox Prospecdts who qualifies as a third baseman is even close to the majors.

Agreed. Who would be Devers's replacement at the ML level? Brock Holt is needed as a utility player at second and in the outfield, and Nunez is worse than Devers. Tzu Wei-Lin may be hitting at AAA, but he's been abominable in the majors and needs to face easier pitching. Esteban Quiroz has had all of 63 PA at AA.

 

[Cuzittt]

Esteban Quiroz has been on the DL since the end of April, so is not an option.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

This board sucks. Jesus Christ.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Absolutely, I'm baffled by anyone suggesting otherwise.



Agreed. Who would be Devers's replacement at the ML level? Brock Holt is needed as a utility player at second and in the outfield, and Nunez is worse than Devers. Tzu Wei-Lin may be hitting at AAA, but he's been abominable in the majors and needs to face easier pitching. Esteban Quiroz has had all of 63 PA at AA.

It would have to be Nunez if internal. Not possible with Pedey out, as I said in my edit so I guess it’s a question for 9 days from now at the earliest.

I just can’t believe that what we’re seeing right now is doing him any good. He looks absolutely lost and unable to identify the strike zone. We need this guy. I hope it’s just a slump.

 

[MuzzyField]

Can a coach help?

 

[tonyarmasjr]

In the old days, they'd call it a sophomore slump. But it's not the old days, so, looking at his advanced batting stats on Fangraphs, his GB/FB ratio is better this year, Line Drive % is a tad worse but hard hit % is better. Nothing alarming I can find, except his BABIP was .342 last year and is .276 this year. That is a pretty, pretty large discrepancy, no?

Edit, I see Wade Bogg's article points out the big BABIP decline also.

This. He was up for a half season last year. The offseason notion that some people had that he should be plugged in to the cleanup slot was foolish. It was inevitable that he'd go through some growing pains this year. Big league teams and pitchers have figured out how to pitch to him, and now he needs to adjust. I realize that the OP acknowledges that, but I think there's only one place for him to figure out and work through the necessary adjustments to MLB pitching.

 

[strek1]

Agree that it's tough to send him down due to lack of 3B replacement. But I also understand the frustration with his progress. I thought he displayed a pretty good feel for the zone last season. That seems to have escaped him this year so far. I think he's putting too much pressure on himself to hit for power. It's going to take time.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This board sucks. Jesus Christ.

Hear, hear. "This guy isn't performing like an all-star MVP candidate, we should send him down or better yet, trade for 'better', more expensive All Star player X over there." First week of June, best record in the game, #2 in runs scored in the AL, #2 in runs allowed in the AL, but with some of these threads of late, you'd think the team was floundering at .500, out of the wildcard race.

Devers was starting to show a bunch of positive signs in the last two weeks (or at least a bit of pop), like that little incentive plan Cora proposed was having its desired effect (promising gift cards to his favorite restaurant every time he went the other way, fining him for swinging at pitches out of the zone). Then he ran into the best pitching staff in the league who are in the middle of a historically good run (team ERA under 3 for 2 months!), and he is 1 for 12 with 6 Ks. Of course he looks lost.

Primarily due to lack of alternatives, this 21-year-old is going to be learning on the job. There will be growing pains, but they can deal with those so long as the rest of the lineup is still productive, which to this point it is.

 

[AlNipper49]

@Detts and I spent a summer watching him. He was frustrating as hell. He’d either go 3/4 with a HR or strike out 4 times on 15 pitches. Consistency is a huge, huge issue for him.

 

[grimshaw]

Primarily due to lack of alternatives, this 21-year-old is going to be learning on the job. There will be growing pains, but they can deal with those so long as the rest of the lineup is still productive, which to this point it is.

Exactly. If they were 6 games out and hitting like they did last year. . well I still wouldn't send him down because remember how miserable third base has been since basically Youkilis?

He is supposedly very coachable, but I'm wondering if most of it is going towards his defense right now.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

This board sucks. Jesus Christ.

Hear, hear. "This guy isn't performing like an all-star MVP candidate, we should send him down or better yet, trade for 'better', more expensive All Star player X over there."

If you want to lump me in with Mookie is fragile garbage or whatever, that's fine, That's never been my gig here, but whatever. But at least if you're going to tell me I suck it isn't fair to invent words for me that really aren't at all what I'm saying.

I think I laid out my hypothesis pretty clearly. Devers' problems stem from plate discipline, at least in significant part. All his numbers are worse. He's seeing fewer balls in the zone, but swinging at more pitches. Plus, his manager had to promise him burritos just to keep the bat on his shoulder here or there.

The question I asked was can a 21 year old who has barely even had a cup of coffee in AAA realistically be expected to fix plate discipline in the big leagues? Actually, that's not really the question. I think the answer to that is yes, perhaps. But maybe the question is whether a minors stint would be a better place for a player that we very desperately need to be good for the next five years. I'm not sure how that could be read as a reactionary desire to punish an undperforming player or complaining about a first place team, but it's not my place to judge my own stuff.

The no alternatives answer is a good one with Pedroia on the DL. If, when Pedroia is back, though, Rafi is still a zero WAR player or worse, I think the question has to go back on the table.

 

[sean1562]

Yea, I really don't think "Could Devers use some more time in AAA after his recent struggles?" is all that egregious of a question. If Nunez had been any sort of asset on offense then he would probably already be down there. As it stands now, he will get every chance in MLB to turn it around, but he may have been a little rushed along last year since we had, and currently still don't have, any better option. With Benintendi and JBJ heating up, Betts coming back soon, and Vaz/Leon not being a total black hole we can let him struggle for a bit while he adjusts

 

[DanoooME]

If you want to lump me in with Mookie is fragile garbage or whatever, that's fine, That's never been my gig here, but whatever. But at least if you're going to tell me I suck it isn't fair to invent words for me that really aren't at all what I'm saying.

He can correct me, but I think he's referring to the posts subsequent to yours, as I agree with you that it's a valid question to ask.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

If you want to lump me in with Mookie is fragile garbage or whatever, that's fine, That's never been my gig here, but whatever. But at least if you're going to tell me I suck it isn't fair to invent words for me that really aren't at all what I'm saying.

I think I laid out my hypothesis pretty clearly. Devers' problems stem from plate discipline, at least in significant part. All his numbers are worse. He's seeing fewer balls in the zone, but swinging at more pitches. Plus, his manager had to promise him burritos just to keep the bat on his shoulder here or there.

The question I asked was can a 21 year old who has barely even had a cup of coffee in AAA realistically be expected to fix plate discipline in the big leagues? Actually, that's not really the question. I think the answer to that is yes, perhaps. But maybe the question is whether a minors stint would be a better place for a player that we very desperately need to be good for the next five years. I'm not sure how that could be read as a reactionary desire to punish an undperforming player or complaining about a first place team, but it's not my place to judge my own stuff.

The no alternatives answer is a good one with Pedroia on the DL. If, when Pedroia is back, though, Rafi is still a zero WAR player or worse, I think the question has to go back on the table.

I didn't read your post in that reactionary vein. Devers is struggling, and I buy your argument for why (at the least as a contributing factor). I think there are three components to the answer. 1) Expectations for his 21yo 2018 season from many here (whether or not that includes you, I don't know) were too high. He put up an .819 OPS last year, and was bound to struggle some this year as the league adjusted to him. That came on the heels of a 2016 in A+ with a .779 OPS and a half season in AA with a 1.047. Expecting full-season numbers that exceeded what he showed last year just wasn't realistic. 2) He's struggling because MLB teams and pitchers have figured out how to pitch him. The book and talent he'd face at a lower level wouldn't be of the same caliber. So, would he be forced to/able to make the necessary adjustments there that would would allow him to get back on track at the major league level? I think that's questionable. 3) He isn't hurting the team at this point as a replacement level player. He's the 9th best position player on the team by fWAR and wRC+ (including Hanley) and last in both among 23 qualified third basemen. So, not good - but still within the realm of viable starter. Additionally, we have the "first place, high-scoring offense" argument plus the current lack of a viable replacement.

In summary, he hasn't been that bad that he needs to be sent down, and I don't believe it helps either him or the team over the short or long term to do so. If his spiral continues another month or so, and we have a healthy replacement who could be expected to be an improvement, the calculus may change.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

He can correct me, but I think he's referring to the posts subsequent to yours, as I agree with you that it's a valid question to ask.

It's a valid question, no doubt. I just disagree with the lead. He needs experience adjusting to Major League quality pitchers.... not AAA pitchers. And the Sox could tell him a million times that if he got sent down it'd only be to recall him after he... what? Gets better??? And then they'd bring him back up... and what if he struggled again for two weeks? What? Send him back down again with the promise that they'd recall him yet again if he got better? And he's not supposed to let any of that weigh on him? He's a young kid, not a machine. Shit like this can screw up someone's promise more than a few weeks of crappy hitting at the ML level and letting him know that Cora and DD believe in him.
I just don't get the idea that sending him down to face inferior pitching would ever in a million years help him at this point.
I think he was called up too soon... but he also helped get the Sox into the playoffs last year and was one of the few bright spots of the offense. At this point, sending him back down would hurt his development. Keep him up at the ML level. Keep him watching videos, working with the coaches.... working with JDM... and keep him going out there at the plate.

 

[MikeM]

I didn't read your post in that reactionary vein. Devers is struggling, and I buy your argument for why (at the least as a contributing factor). I think there are three components to the answer. 1) Expectations for his 21yo 2018 season from many here (whether or not that includes you, I don't know) were too high. He put up an .819 OPS last year, and was bound to struggle some this year as the league adjusted to him. That came on the heels of a 2016 in A+ with a .779 OPS and a half season in AA with a 1.047. Expecting full-season numbers that exceeded what he showed last year just wasn't realistic. 2) He's struggling because MLB teams and pitchers have figured out how to pitch him. The book and talent he'd face at a lower level wouldn't be of the same caliber. So, would he be forced to/able to make the necessary adjustments there that would would allow him to get back on track at the major league level? I think that's questionable. 3) He isn't hurting the team at this point as a replacement level player. He's the 9th best position player on the team by fWAR and wRC+ (including Hanley) and last in both among 23 qualified third basemen. So, not good - but still within the realm of viable starter. Additionally, we have the "first place, high-scoring offense" argument plus the current lack of a viable replacement.

In summary, he hasn't been that bad that he needs to be sent down, and I don't believe it helps either him or the team over the short or long term to do so. If his spiral continues another month or so, and we have a healthy replacement who could be expected to be an improvement, the calculus may change.

Completely agree with all this, and especially along the lines that expectations were too high. Teams were already starting to figure out how to pitch to him last year too, but that tends to get lost in favor of the remembering his red hot start and the HR off Chapman.

For me anything over league average was going to be a bonus this year, and chalked up to the process price you pay while wanting to break in extremely young players (at a position that has been a "we can't find the always hypothetical replacement level player/production" black hole for a while now anyway).

 

[BaseballJones]

1. The Red Sox have 40 wins, the most in baseball by three over the next team.

2. The Red Sox are 2nd in baseball in runs scored per game.

3. Devers has struggled at the plate, no doubt. But he's on pace for 30 doubles and 25 homers. You can live with that out of one of your bottom-of-the-order hitters. This lineup can carry a bat like that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

1. The Red Sox have 40 wins, the most in baseball by three over the next team.

2. The Red Sox are 2nd in baseball in runs scored per game.

3. Devers has struggled at the plate, no doubt. But he's on pace for 30 doubles and 25 homers. You can live with that out of one of your bottom-of-the-order hitters. This lineup can carry a bat like that.

This is all reasonable, and I think the reason why some people are perhaps more concerned than we need to be can be summed up with two glosses on #3:

1) Going into the season, I don't think he was expected to be one of our bottom-of-the-order hitters. Or at least, not to hit like one.

2) If he's a bottom-of-the-order hitter, we officially have four bottom-of-the-order hitters (him, JBJ, Nunez/Pedey and whoever's catching). That seems like one too many. Our lineup has been feast-or-famine this year, and it would be helpful if at least one of the famine-ers would give us a little more to chew on. In that sense, this isn't really about Devers in particular; it's about all the guys who've been hitting 6 through 9. If any one of them were to catch fire, it would take some pressure off all the others.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

@Detts and I spent a summer watching him. He was frustrating as hell. He’d either go 3/4 with a HR or strike out 4 times on 15 pitches. Consistency is a huge, huge issue for him.

The summer he was 18?

 

[Al Zarilla]

Isn't right up there with the fact that the Sox have enough other hitters to hide/carry this guy, the fact that they don't have another third baseman close to him in talent to bring up? No Malzone, certainly not a Boggs, or a Hobson, or even a Scott Cooper or a Naehring. You want a third baseman with some pop, so Lin isn't it. We're going to suffer along with Raf methinks. As for the first premise in this post though, any lineup short of the 27 Yankees can have a team slump. Be nice if he could pull his weight if that happens. I looked up the 27 Yankees and they got shutout once all year, by Lefty Grove (A's).

 

[BaseballJones]

This is all reasonable, and I think the reason why some people are perhaps more concerned than we need to be can be summed up with two glosses on #3:

1) Going into the season, I don't think he was expected to be one of our bottom-of-the-order hitters. Or at least, not to hit like one.

2) If he's a bottom-of-the-order hitter, we officially have four bottom-of-the-order hitters (him, JBJ, Nunez/Pedey and whoever's catching). That seems like one too many. Our lineup has been feast-or-famine this year, and it would be helpful if at least one of the famine-ers would give us a little more to chew on. In that sense, this isn't really about Devers in particular; it's about all the guys who've been hitting 6 through 9. If any one of them were to catch fire, it would take some pressure off all the others.

Understood. But he's just a kid still. Very very very much in the learning process here. Remember he was thrown into the fire last season.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

If you want to lump me in with Mookie is fragile garbage or whatever, that's fine, That's never been my gig here, but whatever. But at least if you're going to tell me I suck it isn't fair to invent words for me that really aren't at all what I'm saying.

Denny who the heck is saying Mookie sucks? I know he is on the DL, but he is having an all world year..

 

[BaseballJones]

Isn't right up there with the fact that the Sox have enough other hitters to hide/carry this guy, the fact that they don't have another third baseman close to him in talent to bring up? No Malzone, certainly not a Boggs, or a Hobson, or even a Scott Cooper or a Naehring. You want a third baseman with some pop, so Lin isn't it. We're going to suffer along with Raf methinks. As for the first premise in this post though, any lineup short of the 27 Yankees can have a team slump. Be nice if he could pull his weight if that happens. I looked up the 27 Yankees and they got shutout once all year, by Lefty Grove (A's).

The 27 Yankees had a third baseman with a 78 ops+, Joe Dugan. 2 homers in 387 at-bats. Of course, they had Ruth, Gehrig, Combs, Meusel, and Lazzeri as well.

 

[Al Zarilla]

The 27 Yankees had a third baseman with a 78 ops+, Joe Dugan. 2 homers in 387 at-bats. Of course, they had Ruth, Gehrig, Combs, Meusel, and Lazzeri as well.

True, but maybe with third baseman, like shortstops back then, defense was a bigger part of the job description than it is today.

 

[AlNipper49]

The summer he was 18?

yes

 

[iambatman2007]

Regarding defense, and understanding SSS, here's how the errors look for Devers:
1st mo.(including the 2 gms in March) E-rate was 6.33%.
In May it was 8.11%.
His first 10 gms in May it was 17.86%. That was the 39th game of the season.
At that point, season to date was 9.35%.
I believe he played all innings in games he played, except 1 where he played 1 inning.

Since that game it has been 1.72%.
In the Houston finale, Nuñez took his spot and had 1 error.

So while his batting has tailed off, his defense has improved. As others have noted his age, time in the big leagues, and the multiple references regarding his attitude and work ethic indicate a step in his growth. Lack of quality backup talent and status of the overall team, it seems the growth will be happening on the big stage.

I did not break down his hitting numbers regarding how he did per month, it seems he started well and then slumped. Looking at the article, it didn’t seem to look at that either and painted a picture of poor offense the whole year.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Xander also slashed .240/.297/.362 in his first full season after his playoff callup in '13. I don't think sending him down to AAA halfway through to get his head straightened out (or whatever the objective people are saying Devers needs to find, now) would have helped his long term production.
I realize the difference between those two seasons, but I'm a very much against any belief that facing crappy pitching will somehow help him face high quality pitching.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Xander also slashed .240/.297/.362 in his first full season after his playoff callup in '13. I don't think sending him down to AAA halfway through to get his head straightened out (or whatever the objective people are saying Devers needs to find, now) would have helped his long term production.
I realize the difference between those two seasons, but I'm a very much against any belief that facing crappy pitching will somehow help him face high quality pitching.

Agreed. If it were some sort of mechanical flaw that was vexing Devers, rather than pitch selection/recognition and making adjustments to how he's being pitched, I'd say sending him down might be beneficial. But to my eye, his faults seem to be that pitchers have figured him out and are exploiting weaknesses and holes that he's only going to fix with more reps against the pitchers who are doing it to him.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

It appears he's more comfortable making the throws. His throwing errors have always appeared to be a result of taking too much off the throw rather than throwing with consistent speed. Seems like he's getting more consistent with his throws.

Is there E5 data out there that breaks down fielding v throwing errors. I'd be curious to see if his throwing errors are down in a significant way.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If you asked me a week or two ago, I'd have said there was no way Devers would be sent down. While I still think it's unlikely, if he continues to struggle as he has, they won't have much of a choice.

First 17 games: 79 PA: .300/.367/.514 on a .353 Babip. 8bb/17k.
Last 42 games: 165 PA: .195/.242/.351 on a .238 BAbip. 10bb/48k

And he hasn't shown any signs of breaking out of it:

Last 28 games: 109 PA: .168/.229/.297 on a .206 BAbip. 8bb/30k.
Last 10 games: 40 PA: .184/.225/.263 on a .280 BAbip. 2bb/13k.

I don't know when the tipping point is, but is current line is .228/.283/.402 and trending downward. If he continues to hit .195/.242/.351 until the end of June, there is no way they can keep him up.

 

[AZBlue]

My observations of Devers' swing is that he does not remain balanced and in control when he swings. He flies open and does not keep his eyes on the ball all of the way to the bat. Before he has completed his swing, his weight is often on his heels. When he makes solid contact, he seems to have his weight more on the balls of his feet and does not fly open.

The Red Sox hitting coaches know 1,000 times as much as I do, but those tendencies cannot result in consistent contact.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I don't know when the tipping point is, but is current line is .228/.283/.402 and trending downward. If he continues to hit .195/.242/.351 until the end of June, there is no way they can keep him up.

1. Again, do the Sox have a third baseman to bring up who would be better?

2. Rather not see Nunez at 3B on a regular basis, although his fielding there is better than at any other position.

Raf had two hits last night; this could be the start of something big. Who knows? At least it buys him some time.

 

[AB in DC]

Surely Brock Holt (128 wRC+ in 107 PA) is playing well enough to get into a rotation somewhere once Betts/Pedroia are back.

 

[uncannymanny]

If you asked me a week or two ago, I'd have said there was no way Devers would be sent down. While I still think it's unlikely, if he continues to struggle as he has, they won't have much of a choice.

First 17 games: 79 PA: .300/.367/.514 on a .353 Babip. 8bb/17k.
Last 42 games: 165 PA: .195/.242/.351 on a .238 BAbip. 10bb/48k

And he hasn't shown any signs of breaking out of it:

Last 28 games: 109 PA: .168/.229/.297 on a .206 BAbip. 8bb/30k.
Last 10 games: 40 PA: .184/.225/.263 on a .280 BAbip. 2bb/13k.

I don't know when the tipping point is, but is current line is .228/.283/.402 and trending downward. If he continues to hit .195/.242/.351 until the end of June, there is no way they can keep him up.

There’s got to be a story in that BABIP. Looking over his FG page, there’s not really much that jumps out wrt plate discipline numbers. He’s seeing slightly more 4 seamers and a slight jump in changeups. He’s swinging at more pitches in the zone this year, but I guess those are probably those high and tight fastballs? Where do people find reliable exit velocity numbers?

 

[Al Zarilla]

Surely Brock Holt (128 wRC+ in 107 PA) is playing well enough to get into a rotation somewhere once Betts/Pedroia are back.

I think Cora, as did Farrell, prefers to keep Brock available for the 7 positions he can play, rather than write him in with a sharpie at any one position every day.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I doubt he'd start games, but Lin is starting to hit in AAA too and has carried over the power from last year. He has a 10 game hitting streak going on including today's game where he's slashing .390/.444/.634. For the year, .280/.348/.426. Of course, he hasn't shown any of that power in the Majors yet, but it's 102 PA. His career line of .239/.337/.307 in the majors isn't that far off from what Devers is giving us.

In a scenario where Devers did get sent down and Holt or Nunez replaced him at 3b, I'd guess Lin would get the call up to be utility guy. Although that probably changes with Pedroia returning.

 

[williams_482]

Where do people find reliable exit velocity numbers?

Statcast.

Devers' batted ball numbers are pretty good: his average exit velocity is 91.8 MPH, 20th in the league, and his hard hit rate is 44.6%, 51st overall. His problems are with plate discipline and actually making contact. His swing rates for pitches in and out of the strike zone are all above league average, while his contact rates in the same splits are below average.

All in all, it looks like his results have been significantly worse than his performance. His xwOBA is a passable .315, clearly better than his actual .282 mark, and he because he is neither slow nor especially vulnerable to shifts, I don't see any reason to expect him to underperform his xwOBA down the road.

There is definitely room for improvement here, but Devers' performance has been much better than his surface numbers suggest, and he still looks like the best 3B option in the organization right now.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

There’s got to be a story in that BABIP. Looking over his FG page, there’s not really much that jumps out wrt plate discipline numbers. He’s seeing slightly more 4 seamers and a slight jump in changeups. He’s swinging at more pitches in the zone this year, but I guess those are probably those high and tight fastballs? Where do people find reliable exit velocity numbers?

I think the plate discipline number that stands out to me is 40.9 percent zone%. That's well below the average (45 percent) and also well below his zone percentage last year which was also 45 percent. 4.1 percent doesn't seem like a lot in the abstract, but when you figure that the range for pitchers is pretty narrow -- probably like 40 to 50 percent something -- it's actually a very significant reduction. And if there were a way to see its progression for the year I bet we'd see that it's gone down. His zswing rate is also really really high. If it's in the zone, he's basically swinging.

So, he's seeing fewer pitches in the zone. Yet, he's swinging more. And, obviously, he's not hitting very well. So, pitchers have figured out that they simply do not need to throw him strikes to get him to swing or to make outs. I don't know if that fully explains the BABIP thing -- but certainly swinging at lower quality pitches would reduce the value of the contact that he's making.

To me, though, the most troubling thing about his plate discipline is to look at the results and the numbers related to his burrito gift card incentive program. Rafi went through an epic period of impatience. He had only three walks (one of which was intentional) in 111 PAs. For a rookie and 21 year old that's not great. For veterans who simply swing at everything and have made their way in the MLB for a career with crazy plate coverage (I'm looking at you Nunez) it's one thing but for a guy learning to hit MLB pitching, he needs to see the pitching. Then, there was a radical change. You could see it. The bat was sitting on his shoulder. We commented on it in game threads. And we learned quickly that he was promised gift cards and it made sense. Seven walks in 33 ABs. While perhaps he was assisted by the fact that pitchers were still thinking that they could get him out with balls out of the zone, that was a sea change.

Well, then he clearly just said fuck it and went back to swinging at everything. Since those 7 walks, he has none in 36 PAs (except one IBB with an empty base). But here's the troubling part to me. When he was more patient, he wasn't a better hitter. He hit very poorly during the stretch where he was walking. He was just not swinging. That's different from being selective.

When Rafi gets to 3-1, he's going to swing unless the ball is a 58 footer. If a dipshit couch potato like me knows it, everyone does. It's not good. Yes, he fucking smashes the ball when he hits it. And that is going to going to (gulp) keep him above a .650 OPS I think. But there's going to be a play in September or October that's important where we need him to choke up the bat and put one in play, or where he's going to need to let a struggling pitcher keep struggling instead of bailing him out. He doesn't have that. CC Sabbathia or whoever won't care that he's only 21, and, besides, we only get to say that for another month anyway.

Again, do the Sox have a third baseman to bring up who would be better?

I know I'm losing this debate, but I'll take one more run at my position, which is that I don't think this is the only question. When Pedey gets back, even if we think there's some modest downgrade to putting Nunez over there, it has to be on the table if it will help make him better. Because the question is about getting Rafi better. We need him to be better. In September. And In 2019-2022. If the answer is that plate discipline is no easier to work on in AAA than MLB, then, ok, stick with the better guy at third and let him learn on the job. But if plate discipline is something that's easier to develop seeing the slightly worse AAA pitching -- which he's almost literally never seen in his career -- then let's get him better.

Edit: The one thing to add here, though, is that his fielding looks significantly better in the last three games. Just more fluid. People have indicated he's coachable. Maybe they are waiting to work on the plate discipline thing in a more nuanced way than just promising him burritos.

 

[EdRalphRomero]

Since June 6th, Devers has a 9 game hitting streak. He has gone 11/35 (.314) over that period with 4 doubles and a homer (only 1 walk though). His defense appears to be improving. He is 21 years old (and will doggedly remain so until late October of this year). Some Red Sox fans want to trade Devers (who will be arbitration eligible in 2021 and a free agent in 2024) for Manny Machado who will be a free agent after this year (possibly because there are no upcoming productions of No No Nanette currently in need of financing). I believe there should be registration process for people with those beliefs.