What’s it all about, Rafi?

curly2

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Some Red Sox fans want to trade Devers (who will be arbitration eligible in 2021 and a free agent in 2024) for Manny Machado who will be a free agent after this year (possibly because there are no upcoming productions of No No Nanette currently in need of financing). I believe there should be registration process for people with those beliefs.
I've seen some writers speculate about that in general "where will Machado be traded?" stories. Do any fans actually want that? I don't. I haven't seen anyone suggest it here.
 

EdRalphRomero

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I've seen some writers speculate about that in general "where will Machado be traded?" stories. Do any fans actually want that? I don't. I haven't seen anyone suggest it here.
Yeah maybe a bit of a strawman. I follow Chad Finn on Twitter and he posted this as a question yesterday (I believe in response to an article suggesting the trade by that bow-tied Fox idiot). A lot of responses suggesting that yes the Red Sox would be dumb not to pull the trigger. On the other hand, so what -- the world is full of idiots. Mostly, I wanted to point out the modest turnaround that might be underway.
 

Reverend

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Since June 6th, Devers has a 9 game hitting streak. He has gone 11/35 (.314) over that period with 4 doubles and a homer (only 1 walk though). His defense appears to be improving. He is 21 years old (and will doggedly remain so until late October of this year). Some Red Sox fans want to trade Devers (who will be arbitration eligible in 2021 and a free agent in 2024) for Manny Machado who will be a free agent after this year (possibly because there are no upcoming productions of No No Nanette currently in need of financing). I believe there should be registration process for people with those beliefs.
I'm not sure, but I think you're a Producers reference away from Godwinning the thread. :wooper:

That said, I quite agree. The way the market works now is you need to get max production from your cost controlled guys so you can overpay for wins on free agents. So you go after FA who can produce at positions where you do NOT already have cost controlled production.

Or am I completely missing something?
 

Murderer's Crow

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If a bullpen arm came with Machado, does that change the thought process? I think the Sox being in GFIN mode makes trading Devers sound more logical, though its still probably a tough pill to swallow.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If a bullpen arm came with Machado, does that change the thought process? I think the Sox being in GFIN mode makes trading Devers sound more logical, though its still probably a tough pill to swallow.
and what arm would move the needle any? The only pitcher on the team I'd really want is Dylan Bundy. If they want to give us Bundy and Machado, I'd have to seriously think about it but Bundy doesn't really fill a need atm. Of course, you'd still make a spot for him and he'd look good in the 2019 rotation.
 

bosockboy

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and what arm would move the needle any? The only pitcher on the team I'd really want is Dylan Bundy. If they want to give us Bundy and Machado, I'd have to seriously think about it but Bundy doesn't really fill a need atm. Of course, you'd still make a spot for him and he'd look good in the 2019 rotation.
Assuming Britton or Brach.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Assuming Britton or Brach.
That wouldn't move the needle nearly enough for me. They are both FA after this season too and who knows what you will get with Britton and Brach's been in decline for awhile. That and we don't really need bullpen help.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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He's young, improving, and cost controlled. With X, Beni, Mookie in line for $$$, I can't imagine them moving a cost controlled asset for a rental, or at all.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Devers has roughly the same number of PAs he had last year (240 in 2017, 293 in 2018) so I thought it would be instructive to compare his YoY stats:

Seasonf-Offf-DeffWarbWaroWARdWarUZRUZR/150
20173.6-3.80.81.31.40-4.6-11.5
2018-1.1-0.40.80.10.6-0.3-1.3-2.3

At first blush, his numbers look worse across the board, though his fWar is about the same and many of his defensive stats look notably better; the stats suggest he was very defensively bad last year and merely below average this year. Anecdotally, Devers has made a number of really good plays and a number of really bad throwing errors. If he reduces the latter with maturity, I wonder if becomes an average-to-above-average defensive 3b.

SeasonBB %K %BB/KAVGOPBSLGOPSISOBsRSpdBABIPwRC+
20177.5%23.8%0.320.2840.3380.4820.8200.1980.23.50.342111
20186.5%26.3%0.250.2430.2900.430.7200.18833.20.29288

Walks are slightly down and Ks are slightly up, but neither value is all that different from last year. The most glaring difference to my eye is the huge drop in BABIP, from 0.342 last year to 0.292 this year. You'd think that would suggest that changes in his batted ball profile is the likely culprit, but, as you'll see below, there isn't a ton of a evidence for that. It's possible that Devers has largely been unlucky this season.

What's most surprising to me is his BSR, which, at 3.0, is good for 17th in the league right behind Benintendi. His baby face and 230lb frame belie above average speed (his sprint speed is 27.3 ft/s while league average is 27.0. For reference, Betts is 28.2 and Beni is 27.7) He's also 4/5 on steal attempts, has only made 4 outs on the bases (same as Mookie and Beni), and has taken the extra base (per Bref) 46% of the time, higher than both Mookie (37%) and Beni (39%). You could make the very credible argument that base running is the strongest part of Raphi's game right now.

SeasonGB/FBLD%GB%FB%IFFB%HR/FB%PULL%CENT%OPPO %HARD %
20171.3815.3%49.1%35.6%13.8%17.2%34.5%33.9%31.5%34.5%
20181.1216.8%43.9%39.3%13.0%15.6%38.1%37.6%24.4%36.5%

Devers is hitting fewer ground balls, more line drives, and making harder contact. He is pulling the ball quite a bit more than last year, so it's possible that he's hitting into the shift more often.

SeasonBarrelsBarrel %Exit VelocityLaunch AngleXBAXSLGXWOBAWOBAHard Hit %PA/HR
2017148.50%89.27.70.2280.4150.3000.34444.8%24.0
2018199.60%92.311.40.2490.4510.3220.30445.7%24.4

All that said, it looks like he's hitting the ball with more authority and in the air more often. His average exit velocity is up from 89.2 to 92.3, good for 19th in the league, and his launch angle has increased from 7.7 to 11.4 degrees. It's possible that he's been hitting lazy fly balls interspersed with hard grounders into the shift, but his barrel % is up a tic over last year as well. These are also strong indications that Devers has been more unlucky than sucky, at least relative to last year. His XBA, XSLG, and XWOBA are all meaningfully higher than they were last year, supporting this point.

SeasonO-Swing %Z-Swing %Swing %O-Contact %Z-Contact %Contact %Zone %F-Strike%Sw-Str%
201736.1%68.6%50.7%63.8%82.6%75.2%45.0%63.8%12.4%
201836.9%77.3%53.5%61.6%81.1%73.2%40.9%65.2%14.2%

The predominate characterization is that Devers has been a free swinger this year, especially out of the zone, but the data doesn't necessarily back this up, as his O-Swing% is only slightly higher than last year. However, he has been much more aggressive *in the zone*, with a Z-Swing% up from 68.6% last year to 77.3% this year. It's possible he's trying to hunt for strikes like the rest of the team but perhaps he's been hunting the wrong ones.

SeasonFB %SL%CT%CB%CH%SF%
201751.5%16.4%5.8%9.3%14.2%2.8%
201850.8%15.8%4.4%8.0%18.0%2.9%

Finally, pitchers have definitely approached him differently this year, with a notable jump in the number of change-ups he's seeing. The weird thing is that he's hitting changups better this year (142 wRC+ this year vs 46 wRC+ last year). The pitches he's doing worst on are sinkers (31 wRC+), cutters (70 wRC+), and splitters (48 wRC+), which account for 22% of the pitches he's seen. Pitchers seem to be using these pitches to pound him down and away but largely *in* the strike zone. Perhaps this is enough to account for Devers relative drop in production despite the fact that he's swinging at more pitches in the zone.

EDIT: typos, clarity, updated the correct table
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Devers has roughly the same number of PAs he had last year (240 in 2017, 293 in 2018) so I thought it would be instructive to compare his YoY stats:

Seasonf-Offf-DeffWarbWaroWARdWarUZRUZR/150
20173.6-3.80.81.31.40-4.6-11.5
2018-1.1-0.40.80.10.6-0.3-1.3-2.3

At first blush, his numbers look worse across the board, though his fWar is about the same and many of his defensive stats look notably better; the stats suggest he was very defensively bad last year and merely below average this year. Anecdotally, Devers has made a number of really good plays and a number of really bad throwing errors. If he reduces the latter with maturity, I wonder if becomes an average-to-above-average defensive 3b.

SeasonBB %K %BB/KAVGOPBSLGOPSISOBsRSpdBABIPwRC+
20177.5%23.8%0.320.2840.3380.4820.8200.1980.23.50.342111
20186.5%26.3%0.250.2430.2900.430.7200.18833.20.29288

Walks are slightly down and Ks are slightly up, but neither value is all that different from last year. The most glaring difference to my eye is the huge drop in BABIP, from 0.342 last year to 0.292 this year. You'd think that would suggest that changes in his batted ball profile is the likely culprit, but, as you'll see below, there isn't a ton of a evidence for that. It's possible that Devers has largely been unlucky this season.

What's most surprising to me is his BSR, which, at 3.0, is good for 17th in the league right behind Benintendi. His baby face and 230lb frame belie above average speed (his sprint speed is 27.3 ft/s while league average is 27.0. For reference, Betts is 28.2 and Beni is 27.7) He's also 4/5 on steal attempts, has only made 4 outs on the bases (same as Mookie and Beni), and has taken the extra base (per Bref) 46% of the time, higher than both Mookie (37%) and Beni (39%). You could make the very credible argument that base running is the strongest part of Raphi's game right now.

SeasonGB/FBLD%GB%FB%IFFB%HR/FB%PULL%CENT%OPPO %HARD %
20171.3815.3%49.1%35.6%13.8%17.2%34.5%33.9%31.5%34.5%
20181.1216.8%43.9%39.3%13.0%15.6%38.1%37.6%24.4%36.5%

Devers is hitting fewer ground balls, more line drives, and making harder contact. He is pulling the ball quite a bit more than last year, so it's possible that he's hitting into the shift more often.

SeasonBarrelsBarrel %Exit VelocityLaunch AngleXBAXSLGXWOBAWOBAHard Hit %PA/HR
2017148.50%89.27.70.2280.4150.3000.34444.8%24.0
2018199.60%92.311.40.2490.4510.3220.30445.7%24.4

All that said, it looks like he's hitting the ball with more authority and in the air more often. His average exit velocity is up from 89.2 to 92.3, good for 19th in the league, and his launch angle has increased from 7.7 to 11.4 degrees. It's possible that he's been hitting lazy fly balls interspersed with hard grounders into the shift, but his barrel % is up a tic over last year as well. These are also strong indications that Devers has been more unlucky than sucky, at least relative to last year. His XBA, XSLG, and XWOBA are all meaningfully higher than they were last year, supporting this point.

SeasonO-Swing %Z-Swing %Swing %O-Contact %Z-Contact %Contact %Zone %F-Strike%Sw-Str%
201736.1%68.6%50.7%63.8%82.6%75.2%45.0%63.8%12.4%
201836.9%77.3%53.5%61.6%81.1%73.2%40.9%65.2%14.2%

The predominate characterization is that Devers has been a free swinger this year, especially out of the zone, but the data doesn't necessarily back this up, as his O-Swing% is only slightly higher than last year. However, he has been much more aggressive *in the zone*, with a Z-Swing% up from 68.6% last year to 77.3% this year. It's possible he's trying to hunt for strikes like the rest of the team but perhaps he's been hunting the wrong ones.

SeasonO-Swing %Z-Swing %Swing %O-Contact %Z-Contact %Contact %Zone %F-Strike%Sw-Str%
201736.1%68.6%50.7%63.8%82.6%75.2%45.0%63.8%12.4%
201836.9%77.3%53.5%61.6%81.1%73.2%40.9%65.2%14.2%

Finally, pitchers have definitely approached him differently this year, with a notable jump in the number of change-ups he's seeing. The weird thing is that he's hitting changups better this year (142 wRC+ this year vs 46 wRC+ last year). The pitches he's doing worst on are sinkers (31 wRC+), cutters (70 wRC+), and splitters (48 wRC+), which account for 22% of the pitches he's seen. Pitchers seem to be using these pitches to pound him down and away but largely *in* the strike zone. Perhaps this is enough to account for Devers relative drop in production despite the fact that he's swinging at more pitches in the zone.

EDIT: typos, clarity
Thanks for this. Good stuff. I came away with: somewhat unlucky.... luck normalized he would be sitting somewhere around a .750OPS at this point in the season.
It seems lately like he's been adjusting to the general pitching adjustment and has been looking better at the plate. Red Sox (and fans) have to be patient with this kid... back to AAA isn't going to help, and dealing him I worry will be a Bagwell level mistake
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Thanks for this. Good stuff. I came away with: somewhat unlucky.... luck normalized he would be sitting somewhere around a .750OPS at this point in the season.
It seems lately like he's been adjusting to the general pitching adjustment and has been looking better at the plate. Red Sox (and fans) have to be patient with this kid... back to AAA isn't going to help, and dealing him I worry will be a Bagwell level mistake
I agree with the "somewhat unlucky" diagnosis, combined with somewhat lucky last season.
Also, re: this point from Pitt: "The pitches he's doing worst on are sinkers (31 wRC+), cutters (70 wRC+), and splitters (48 wRC+), which account for 22% of the pitches he's seen. Pitchers seem to be using these pitches to pound him down and away but largely *in* the strike zone." Combine being pounded down and away with a higher Pull% / lower Oppo%, you're looking at a guy trying to pull outside pitches. We all know what those swings usually turn into.
My eye also says he's been particularly susceptible to high cheese.
 

joyofsox

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Devers will turn 22 years old on October 24.

There are 44 guys listed on BRef's page for this year's Portland Sea Dogs (AA). The youngest one is seven months older than Devers. 42 of the 44 players are between 23 and 29 years old.

Devers is also younger than every position player for the 2018 Salem Red Sox (Advanced A).

He has work to do, but what he has already done - and is doing, even with his faults - in the major leagues at ages 20 and 21 is remarkable.
 

Koufax

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Despite the errors, I think he is focusing on his defense. He's making some good plays (yes, and some bad plays too) and showing some talent in the field.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Devers will turn 22 years old on October 24.

There are 44 guys listed on BRef's page for this year's Portland Sea Dogs (AA). The youngest one is seven months older than Devers. 42 of the 44 players are between 23 and 29 years old.

Devers is also younger than every position player for the 2018 Salem Red Sox (Advanced A).

He has work to do, but what he has already done - and is doing, even with his faults - in the major leagues at ages 20 and 21 is remarkable.
I'm not sure where he ranks this year, but Devers was the youngest player in the American League last year and possibly in the majors. Also, to build on what you said, here's a list of the youngest players across all levels of the minor leagues as of April 9th: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/youngest-by-league-2018-opening-day/

Devers was 21.5 yo as of 4/9/2018, which would have made him:
  • 9th youngest in AAA
  • 18th youngest in AA
So, yeah, the dude is really young and is still on pace to hit 25 HR, which would have led the Red Sox last year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm not sure where he ranks this year, but Devers was the youngest player in the American League last year and possibly in the majors. Also, to build on what you said, here's a list of the youngest players across all levels of the minor leagues as of April 9th: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/youngest-by-league-2018-opening-day/

Devers was 21.5 yo as of 4/9/2018, which would have made him:
  • 9th youngest in AAA
  • 18th youngest in AA
So, yeah, the dude is really young and is still on pace to hit 25 HR, which would have led the Red Sox last year.

Devers is the 5th youngest positional player in the ML this year, and the 2nd youngest in the AL. The only younger player is Gleyber Torres. At least, if I did my quick search right.
 

mfried

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Can't someone pay him not to go for pitches more than 4" above the zone - or fine him he does?
 

Pitt the Elder

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Can't someone pay him not to go for pitches more than 4" above the zone - or fine him he does?
To what degree is his issue approach and to what degree is it pitch recognition? They can tell him to lay off the high fastball or the down-and-away slider as much as they want, but if he think it's a middle-in meatball coming out of the pitchers hand, how can he decide not to swing? How much is pitch recognition a learnable skill?
 

Mike F

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I'm definitely in the "he's young" school. I'm plenty old enough to remember bonus baby, Sandy Koufax
being required to remain on the ML roster for 3 years because he signed a bonus in excess of $100,000.00.
His stuff was electric but his control and Command waivered. He had many struggles. He was young.
I'm not suggesting that Devers is apt to be the most recently arrived HOF candidate bproduced from the Sox system just that he needs time.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Can't someone pay him not to go for pitches more than 4" above the zone - or fine him he does?
As strange as it may be, hitting that HR on that shoulder high 103 MPH fastball off of Chapman last year may have been a bad thing for Rafi in the long run. As a result of that HR, Rafi may have an "I can do damage on this pitch" mentality about pitches at or above the top of the zone.
 

shaggydog2000

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He has been on quite a tear for most of the last month. Since 6/6 until yesterday he has hit .319/.331/.571 with 5 HR and 4 SB. He's still not walking much, but he's hitting the snot out of the ball. And I feel like his throwing has been more accurate. Like I said in the game thread, I'm bullish on the kid.
 

Koufax

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I'm very bullish on him. He has shown some real athleticism in the field. It doesn't always translate into good results, but it often does and he seems to be getting better out there. His hitting talent is obvious and his strength is prodigious. I expect him to be holding down 3B for a long time to come.
 

brandonchristensen

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Last night, they showed a side by side of his swing before and after he closed his stance.

The results are there, it might be a legit fix for him.
 

joe dokes

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Speier has a great story up on Devers. (Having trouble pasting the link......)
 

PaulinMyrBch

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MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
Speier has a great story up on Devers. (Having trouble pasting the link......)
This is it
With it being 2nd of the month, everyone should be able to read it free. I mean, does anyone read 5 Globe story all in one day?

On a serious note, the ancillary value of JD is becoming more and more clear. Great player, but he seems like an even better teammate. We're gonna look back at the JD era one day and marvel.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Hearing about JD identifying and personally relating with Raffy's struggles and taking him under his wing is refreshing and encouraging. He takes nothing for granted and realizes the every day work that needs to be put in to succeed in this kind of environment, and he's helping to teach Devers everything he knows. That's fantastic through and through.

The stuff about Mookie, Moreland, and others is great as well. This squad genuinely gives a shit and feeds off one another, and that's a recipe for success with their talent level.
 

Bergs

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That article does nothing to make me think swapping out John Farrell for Alex Cora wasn't a great move by this franchise. I absolutely love reading stuff like that about a clubhouse culture.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Holy crap, that story is inspiring. JDM might be earning a substantial chunk of his salary in improvements to other hitters' performance, even leaving aside what he does on his own account. And it sounds like Cora has done an incredible job of assembling a coaching staff.
 

iambatman2007

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That is a great article showing the value of a “team”. It’s pointed out by a coach that it isn’t coaches and players but it’s team, and as mentioned, family. I believe this is huge in giving an extra oomph to the team, making teams a little less talented be able to compete, and making those teams with strong talent have that extra gear.

It’s great to hear and tends to harken back to team building before FA took over. But sometimes you can do both. Hoping this environment makes the difference in getting championships.

Maybe it even impacts one guys to reup as opposed to going to a new and different team.
 

Sox Puppet

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Devers currently hitting .245/.289/.436 as of July 7th. Pablo Sandoval hitting 253/.318/.401. Both at -0.1 WAR for the year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Devers has been trending upwards too. Last 109 PA: .292/.312/.519 on a .333 BAbip. 3bb/23k, though. Hopefully he learns to take a walk because when he is struggling, he's borderline useless due to not being able to get on base at all.

Sandoval is trending downward, though only over the last 15 games and 49 PA: .170/.204/.234 on a .184 BAbip with 1bb/8k. Prior to that, he was slashing .281/.355/.459 in 152 PA with 16bb/37k. In someways, he is a lot like Devers re getting free passes. This year, Pablo is walking at closer to his career rates than his Boston rates. Had Pablo walked at his normal rate in Boston, his line would have been a more respectable .237/.328/.360 instead of the .237/.286/.360 it was. In his 620 PA in Boston, he should have walked roughly 60 times. He walked 34.
 

KenTremendous

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I know errors aren't everything, but the team has 45 and he now has 18 of them. He also dropped a seemingly catchable pop foul that then was followed by a homer. His defense is rough, and without the offense, it's been a dicey half season.
 

normstalls

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Placed on the 10 day DL - left shoulder inflammation (per MLB push notification)

Lin recalled.
 

grimshaw

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Good time for maintenance if that's all there is. Two lefty starters the next two days and the break coming up.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I know errors aren't everything, but the team has 45 and he now has 18 of them. He also dropped a seemingly catchable pop foul that then was followed by a homer. His defense is rough, and without the offense, it's been a dicey half season.
It's interesting how, at least on a month by month basis, his errors are fairly well distributed. 5 in April, 6 in May, 5 in June, 3 so far in July. That's just a small sample weirdness, though, I think. His fielding is getting a bit better, or at least a little more sophisticated. All eye test stuff, but he does seem to have better situational awareness in that it appears he now knows who the batter/runner is and whether he can take the short way to second base, before he has the ball. His footwork looks better too.

One thing to note about Devers is that he is way above average in chances at third base. He's third in assists. To give a sense, he has 196, or 2.27 per start. The league leader is Seager, with 208. Chapman has the most if you go by assists per start. Just to give the sense of other players at the position who have about the same number of starts -- Sanchez, 142, 1.82/start; Shaw, 131, 1.57/start; Ramirez, 141, 1.63/start. He leads the league in balls in zone at 222 (average for a third baseman with similar innings as Devers looks to be somewhere around 150-160 if I'm reading fangraphs right).

We have four lefty starters. He's getting a lot of chances. I'm not saying he's a good defender. His overall defensive metrics are not great. But, you know, lots of chances lots of errors at a position that has zero room for error.

With Rafi's DL stint, I think Butch Hobson's 43 errors at third base in 1978 is probably safe. (He accumulated those in 133 games!!!)
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Good time for maintenance if that's all there is. Two lefty starters the next two days and the break coming up.
Yup -- retro'd to yesterday so I think he's eligible to come back for the second Detroit game after the break.