When the Special Teams units are on the field...

[Conigliaro's Potential]

This may be a very short thread, but I reckon it's worth at least paying some lip service to the third phase of the game. By DVOA, the Patriots had the 7th best special teams unit in the league this year at 3.8% including the playoffs (5th in weighted DVOA), while the Falcons had the 9th best unit at 1.8% including the playoffs (17th in weighted DVOA). I suspect the weighted ratings are significantly skewed by what happened in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, when Devin Hester pushed Atlanta's special teams to a -9% DVOA performance on the day and New England had a 20% DVOA performance against the tire fire that is Houston's "special" teams. (Oddly, this article suggests the Patriots performance against Houston was the same both with and without opponent adjustments included; if you don't have a lower DVOA than VOA when playing against the worst special teams unit in the league, something must surely be amiss.)

As far as Atlanta's special teams units are concerned, here's my breakdown:

--Placekicking: Matt Bryant deserved his Pro Bowl selection - he had another excellent and consistent season, finishing 34/37 on field goals for the year. He did miss two extra points, including that meaningless miss against Green Bay a week-and-a-half ago, as well as a short field goal at Carolina in Week 16 that was blocked, so he's not impervious to mistakes. He did go 6-for-8 from 50+ yards this season: that includes a 59-yard make against the Chiefs, but also the 58-yard miss as time expired which would have defeated the Chargers. (The latter kick hit the upright a foot or two above the crossbar.) His longest career field goal was a 62-yard game-winner for Tampa Bay against Philadelphia back in 2006.

--Punting and kickoffs: Matt Bosher is one of the steadiest kickers in the NFL - he averaged 46.8 yards per punt this season (7th in the league), and 41.6 net yards per punt (6th in the league). The Falcons were also in the league in kickoff touchback percentage, at 63.78%, although that statistic may be less relevant now that touchbacks come out to the 25 and kicking/return strategies are changing. One point to note, though, is that Bosher was injured in Week 9 against the Eagles and missed the Cardinals game in Week 11 (after the bye in Week 10); since then, my impression is that his leg hasn't quite been as strong.

(You'll note that the Falcons have a profusion of players named "Matt": in addition to Ryan, Schaub, Bryant and Bosher - not to mention Jake Matthews - Bosher's replacement punter for Week 11 was Matt Wile, and his two punts that week went 58 and 60 yards.)

--Returns: Eric Weems is a safety-first return man. He had one punt return of 73 yards against the Raiders in Week 2, but apart from that he's failed to dazzle; his longest kickoff return was only 42 yards, and his averages are distinctly mediocre. Also, his decision-making on punts is highly questionable; you'll probably recall the Seahawks pinning the Falcons on the 1-yard-line in the Divisional Round after Weems wasn't in position to make a fair catch, and poor positioning in catching punts and being overly cautious in calling for fair catches has been an issue for him all season. On the plus side, I believe I heard a statistic the other week that he was the only regular punt returner not to muff a punt this season, so if he gets in position to catch the ball, he always catches it.

--Coverage: Hester's performance in the Divisional Round was an anomaly; generally, my impression has been that Atlanta's kick and punt coverage teams were pretty decent, if not outstanding. Atlanta's opponents were 8th in average punt return yardage (9.6) and 11th in average kickoff return yardage (22.6), but the Falcons didn't allow a return touchdown all year, the latter being true of only 17 of the 32 teams in the league (including the Patriots).

I'll let you guys analyze New England's special teams; certainly I think Bryant has been better than Ghost this season, but in the other units my impression is that the Patriots generally have slight edges. Is that fair?

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

What keeps me up at night is Bryant vs. Ghost. If this is a close game late, as it often seems to be, I think we are in trouble if it comes down to a fourth quarter FG battle or a clutch kick to win the game in the final seconds or in OT. If the game is close at the half we need to decisively win the third quarter. That's why if we win the coin toss at the beginning of the game I would defer.

 

[IdiotKicker]

So Bryant is about as consistent as it gets, and while there's a chance that you see something fluky, his 8 years in Atlanta have been really, really good, with just shy of 89% accuracy over that time. As CP mentioned, the 58-yard miss was a killer strike that just didn't quite find its way home, but Bryant's other misses showed a bit of hip lag, which is uncharacteristic for him. Don't see any real weakness here other than experience in Super Bowls.

Bosher has one of the stronger legs in the league, and is also very consistent, with only one punt that I'd classify as a shank this year. Everything else is within 15-18% of the distance he should be punting, and he routinely crushes 50-57 yard punts from his own territory, so he could be a weapon in the field position game. The Falcons don't do a ton directionally, but when they do, they tend to aim for the left numbers, so NE could take advantage of this if they can set up some walls to Atlanta's right side. The couple of big returns the Falcons gave up this year were on punts down the middle, so there isn't a ton of weakness here.

Return-wise, the Falcons clearly show their Patriots-inspired front office doesn't care much about returns, as they're fairly pedestrian. NE should have an advantage trying to pin Atlanta on kickoffs or in pin-deep punting situations.

Overall, I probably give Atlanta a decent edge in the punt game, a push on FG/XP, and returns slightly favor NE. Neither team has any glaring weaknesses on special teams, and this is a pretty balanced matchup, but Atlanta will force NE into long drives because of Bosher's ability to boom the ball from his own end. Not likely to see many drives starting from the 35-40 yard line for the Patriots.

 

[IdiotKicker]

What keeps me up at night is Bryant vs. Ghost. If this is a close game late, as it often seems to be, I think we are in trouble if it comes down to a fourth quarter FG battle or a clutch kick to win the game in the final seconds or in OT. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't think there is anything to worry about here.