Who is Our Competition for JDM?

[chawson]

Finally, there’s clarity. We’re not getting Stanton, and we’re not getting Ohtani. Say what you will about Theo and Cherington, but their moves were hard to predict. DDski operates with less nuance, blunter tools. I think it’s virtually certain the Sox are in on J.D. Martinez (and that we might discuss him outside of the risk/reason megathreads.)

Who else is? Probably not many.

Obvious suitors

D’backs — Probably our primary competition. Need an OF; window is now (Greinke, Goldschmidt, Pollock).
Giants — If they get Stanton, they’re almost certainly out on JDM because of payroll and space concerns. If Stanton goes to the Cards or Dodgers, I could see them outbidding the field.

Conceivable suitors

Angels — He’d be a better DH than the guy they’ve got, but I can’t see them cutting Pujols.
Blue Jays — They’ve got Morales at DH but a huge hole in RF and plenty of money. They tend to build offense-first teams and have one more year of Smoak. Could see them as a dark horse.
Cardinals — Possible, since they were in on Stanton. But they’ve got Fowler, Pham, Martinez, Grichuk, Bader, Sierra, and Piscotty.
Indians — Unlikely. Their outfield is Brantley/Zimmer/Chisenhall, but two of those guys have problems staying healthy. DH not an option.
Mariners — OF is Haniger/Gamel/Heredia. If they land Ohtani, they’re likely out. Dipoto loves outfield defense, so it’s unlikely unless they move the last year of Nelson Cruz. They badly need pitching.
Phillies — They have the money to spend. Their outfield is Altherr-Herrera-Hoskins but could slot in JDM if they think they’re ready to contend and wanna give up on Tommy Joseph.
White Sox — This would be sneaky, but they do have a wide open hole in the OF and DH spots if they wanna accelerate their rebuild. Highly unlikely.
Yankees — He’d fit very well as their DH, but they might be trying to get under the threshold. They have too many outfielders.

Feel free to make a case that another team would be in the mix, but I can’t see it.

I don’t know what percent of his $200 asking price he’ll get, but our chances of signing JDM go way up if the Giants get Stanton.

 

[sean1562]

What do you think would be the max the Dbacks could spend on him? Their current payroll obligation for next year are about $118 million. Looking back at their historical payrolls, that def seems to be on the higher side for them already. Do we see the Diamondbacks as a team that is ready to start pushing their payroll close to 150 million over the next few years? or is hoping for improvement for some of their other players realistically the best move for them?

I have no idea what Eric Hosmer's market is supposed to be, especially at over $100 million. I saw a report connecting him to the Padres, but isnt Will Myers a bad defensive OF? And a better hitter than Hosmer? I see Hosmer's market imploding and him taking a one year deal to save face and "prove his value"

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

What do you think would be the max the Dbacks could spend on him? Their current payroll obligation for next year are about $118 million. Looking back at their historical payrolls, that def seems to be on the higher side for them already. Do we see the Diamondbacks as a team that is ready to start pushing their payroll close to 150 million over the next few years? or is hoping for improvement for some of their other players realistically the best move for them?

Where did you find that $118 million figure? I'm seeing $62.6 million.

 

[moondog80]

Where did you find that $118 million figure? I'm seeing $62.6 million.

Cots has about 121 mil, including arb and pre-arb guys.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1iYLO1rDboVuuyxpWIF9ALhPzN5uBogMqlt8OO6K4fYw/pubhtml

 

[chawson]

It is $62.6M, per Spotrac. The only guys making more than $2M there are Greinke, Goldschmidt, and Yasmany Tomas. They’re the scariest team for Sox fans who want JDM, because they have tons of money and do not want a first baseman.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

So it looks like the $62 is just the guys with contracts, not the arb and pre-arb guys. Which is everyone but 5 players.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

How about Texas. They seem like a decent landing spot for Martinez.

 

[chawson]

How about Texas. They seem like a decent landing spot for Martinez.

Maybe? Texas does weird things. They’ve got DeShields and Mazara. Calhoun if they wanna play him in left, and Profar I guess. Gallo at first, Choo at DH. They also desperately need pitching help.

 

[sean1562]

In the end, I don't think the Diamondbacks will shoot up to 150 million just to get JD, and they will need some spare cash to re-sign Goldschmidt after the 2019 season. If I were the Dbacks, I would be more willing to bet on their homegrown star, potential HoF than JD. He is already 2nd in WAR in the history of the franchise(behind Randy Johnson's 53!!).

Side note, I was much too young to really understand the brilliance of Randy Johnson. I always knew he was great, but those numbers with the Dbacks are otherworldly. Ages 35-40!!

 

[MikeM]

After reading that the Mets were looking at Jay Bruce I'd probably put them down as an above zero possibility here. I mean it is the Mets, and the available money looks to be there.

 

[grimshaw]

There are other longshots.

If Schwarber is moved, the Cubs have room.

If Eaton could play centerfield, the Nats could if they know they can't sign Harper.

Similarly, the O's could if they know they can't sign Machado. Right field is gentle in Camden Yards too. I'd put them in the near no chance category with the Phillies and White Sox.

I think it's down to the Sox, the Stanton loser, and the M's if they lose out on Ohtani.
I don't think the D-Backs or Jays have a prayer of outspending a determined Dombrowski.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Has there been any legit rumors the Sox are even interested? Other than ‘where’s he fit?’ And ‘what do they need’ type speculation? I seriously hope they don’t invest $25M a year in JD Martinez. I know we could use a power bag but that contract is going to look halfway between Pablo and Hanley in about year 3 of 6.

 

[sean1562]

The Nationals will not sign JD Martinez. It is more likely that they either move Harper to left and play Eaton in RF, or move Eaton to LF. Michael Taylor is their JBJ, essentially, and Victor Robles, the 2 prospect in all of baseball, is a CF.

If they punt on Harper, their probable plan is Eaton/Taylor/Robles. They have a plethora of OF options.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Has there been any legit rumors the Sox are even interested? Other than ‘where’s he fit?’ And ‘what do they need’ type speculation? I seriously hope they don’t invest $25M a year in JD Martinez. I know we could use a power bag but that contract is going to look halfway between Pablo and Hanley in about year 3 of 6.

Didn't you read the opening post? It's virtually certain

Finally, there’s clarity. We’re not getting Stanton, and we’re not getting Ohtani. Say what you will about Theo and Cherington, but their moves were hard to predict. DDski operates with less nuance, blunter tools. I think it’s virtually certain the Sox are in on J.D. Martinez. (and that we could discuss him outside of the risk/reason megathreads.)

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

My bad. Didn’t realize that. Umm, so maybe the Twins?

 

[MikeM]

Yankees — He’d fit very well as their DH, but they might be trying to get under the threshold. They have too many outfielders.

COTS has them projected to be about $40m under the cap atm, so it doesn't appear that signing in itself would be pushing them over. The combination of a few moveable salaries and an abundance of trade chips to get creative with gives them some additional flexibility outs to work with as well.

I know some of the NYY fans and grass is always greener on the other side people are currently riding the same "bankable breakouts!" high a lot of people here were after 2016, but to me their lineup looks just likely to get smacked back down with across-the-board regression as our squad was. It's not like they are locked in with that Gardner contract or still wouldn't be looking to dump Ellsbury anyway either. Losing out on Ohtani certainly ups the chance they become more interested in putting in a hedge bet there imo.

 

[DanoooME]

Phillies — They have the money to spend. Their outfield is Altherr-Herrera-Hoskins but could slot in JDM if they think they’re ready to contend and wanna give up on Tommy Joseph.

Hoskins is really a OF in sheep's clothing. His destination is 1B. Nick Williams is their RF going forward.

I wouldn't mind the Sox taking a shot at Joseph if he came cheap. Since Ruben Amaro is no longer GM, the Phillies likely won't overvalue him. He's going to be 27 this summer and really doesn't have a spot on the team. He's still pre-arb so he'd have some value in being a cheap version of Mike Napoli. Worth taking a flyer on for a C- prospect. And he could be a decent emergency catcher if it came to that.

 

[chawson]

Didn't you read the opening post? It's virtually certain

I guess, my bad? You're right that there's been no hard-and-fast reports that Dombrowski is pursuing Martinez. Do you think he's actually not interested irrespective of cost?

 

[Sampo Gida]

I think Texas will try and get him. He has more value as DH only. No state taxes allows them to undercut everyone else that may be interested. I dont see them going beyond 7/150 though. I'd be interested at 7/160 but no higher

 

[Sampo Gida]

COTS has them projected to be about $40m under the cap atm, so it doesn't appear that signing in itself would be pushing them over. The combination of a few moveable salaries and an abundance of trade chips to get creative with gives them some additional flexibility outs to work with as well.

I know some of the NYY fans and grass is always greener on the other side people are currently riding the same "bankable breakouts!" high a lot of people here were after 2016, but to me their lineup looks just likely to get smacked back down with across-the-board regression as our squad was. It's not like they are locked in with that Gardner contract or still wouldn't be looking to dump Ellsbury anyway either. Losing out on Ohtani certainly ups the chance they become more interested in putting in a hedge bet there imo.

They probably will want to sign CC or equivalent plus the Cotts figures dont include benefits. Pretty sure JDM would push them over unless they pass on CC. They need room to make a trade deadline move . They will also need to free up some space for extensions as well although as you say they have some trade pieces in Gardner (and Headley ) which can lower their payroll if they go with Frazier /Fowler and Andujar/Torres. That probably wont happen till the deadline to make sure Torres/Fowler are healthy. Ellsbury they are pretty much stuck with most of his contract.

Pretty sure Cashman is not going near JDM though. Lots of guys on that roster who can give him quality DH at bats. His days as a big spender are over I think. His mandate is win with a team at or under the LT. Might go over once in awhile like the Red Sox but its not going to be another perpetual run of being over like the last run.

 

[RedOctober3829]

They probably will want to sign CC or equivalent plus the Cotts figures dont include benefits. Pretty sure JDM would push them over unless they pass on CC. They need room to make a trade deadline move . They will also need to free up some space for extensions as well although as you say they have some trade pieces in Gardner (and Headley ) which can lower their payroll if they go with Frazier /Fowler and Andujar/Torres. That probably wont happen till the deadline to make sure Torres/Fowler are healthy. Ellsbury they are pretty much stuck with most of his contract.

Pretty sure Cashman is not going near JDM though. Lots of guys on that roster who can give him quality DH at bats. His days as a big spender are over I think. His mandate is win with a team at or under the LT. Might go over once in awhile like the Red Sox but its not going to be another perpetual run of being over like the last run.

He's going to spend big next offseason with the likes of Harper, Machado, Kershaw, etc. possibly being available.

 

[jon abbey]

Fowler got traded to Oakland in the Gray deal.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Total opinion, but Toronto seems like an obvious candidate for Astros/Cubs/Phillies-style teardowns this season. I'd be surprised if they went after anyone.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Total opinion, but Toronto seems like an obvious candidate for Astros/Cubs/Phillies-style teardowns this season. I'd be surprised if they went after anyone.

That will never happen IMO. That would be throwing away all the buzz that was generated by AA in the past three years. If they completely tanked, attendance would totally crater .. and the owners (Rodgers) will not stand for that. So they have a tricky balancing act. They have to appear to be trying to compete with the big boys while rebuilding at the same time. If I'm the GM I'd trade Osuna, Smoak and Donaldson which would bring in a pretty good haul. But they can't do that .. so I suspect maybe they trade Smoak .. but that's about it.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I like JDM as a hitter, and think he fits the need better than anyone available as a FA. But I would want nothing to do with 7/175, or even 6/150. It's not the AAV, but the years - I wouldn't want to guarantee 6 years, never mind 7, given his age, lack of sustained track record of elite-level performance, and our future payroll needs to extend our own, younger players.

Ideally, I think he should be offered 4 years guaranteed, with one or two team option years (with vesting triggers) . And I'd be willing to offer him an opt-out after Year 2 and/or 3 to get him to take that deal. I'd only guarantee a fifth year if I was convinced there was a credible 5 year offer from another team, because I'm not sure there will be one. If someone is willing to go 6 years guaranteed, that's their problem.

I think the D'backs are our primary competition, and I doubt they'll go 6/150.

 

[chawson]

That will never happen IMO...So they have a tricky balancing act. They have to appear to be trying to compete with the big boys while rebuilding at the same time. If I'm the GM I'd trade Osuna, Smoak and Donaldson which would bring in a pretty good haul. But they can't do that .. so I suspect maybe they trade Smoak .. but that's about it.

Agree, except this is an awful market to trade Smoak in. Morales, Tulo, and Martin all have negative value. They probably should trade Happ and JD while they can.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I wouldn't mind the Sox taking a shot at Joseph if he came cheap.

How much better than Travis is Joseph likely to be? Their draft pedigrees are similar, and so far in his brief career Joseph has been a replacement-level player. It's possible Travis won't even be that good, but it's also possible he'll be a bit better. It would have to be a *really* cheap price to make the exchange seem worth bothering about.

 

[Green Monster]

JD Martinez Profile

 

[grimshaw]

Tommy Joseph had the lowest wRC+ of any regular first baseman last season (85). And he's been brutal in the field so far.

I've mentioned this before, but the league average for a first baseman is 121. I can't imagine DD settling for anything less than that. That's why I think Matt Adams and Bryce frigging Brentz are also silly options. Guys like Alonso and Morrison who had no track record of above average first base offense were way better.

I imagine and hope to god DD is thinking much bigger. At least Hanley circa 2016.
My guess is Santana is their guy if they don't get Martinez. I wouldn't think he would get enough money and years for his contract to be disastrous.

 

[mfried]

JD Martinez Profile

Could Martinez learn to play better first base than Hanley? Or is that a threat to his delicate physique?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

JD Martinez Profile

Interesting prediction for Martinez' contract terms in that article.

 

[Oppo]

Re: Phillies above

Don't see the fit. After a complete tear down and shedding contracts, the Phillies should be looking towards the post-Harper window to compete against the Nats. Giving a 30 yo JDM a huge contract would be counter to that, even with the huge money they have to spend in the coming years. JDM is much more a final go for it piece to a team like Boston than a guy you build around for the next 5+ years IMO.

(I realize the Phillies were listed as conceivable due to financial flexibility)

 

[DeadlySplitter]

For those not willing to overpay JDM - do you really think Santana or Hosmer will fully solve our power woes? JDM is the best bet to solve that.

unless you want to depend on internal bounceback from all the B's, Devers (which I'm bullish on, but you can't rely on a rookie projection for everything here), and Hanley (lol), JDM is most likely to produce and fill the power gap in the current window (next two years), while Sale is still cheap.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

For those not willing to overpay JDM - do you really think Santana or Hosmer will fully solve our power woes? JDM is the best bet to solve that.

unless you want to depend on internal bounceback from all the B's, Devers (which I'm bullish on, but you can't rely on a rookie projection for everything here), and Hanley (lol), JDM is most likely to produce and fill the power gap in the current window (next two years), while Sale is still cheap.

The question about bounce backs is complicated. There are reasons to believe that the 2016 HR numbers posted were not sustainable for many in the lineup (Bradley, Bogaerts, Betts especially) but there was also a piece on mlb.com recently which pointed out that Betts had an inordinate amount of hard hit balls not fall for hits, so even if his HR totals aren't going to increase much over 2017, his SLG might.

Then there's Tim Hyers. If he's bringing the launch angle revolution to Boston, there might be a slight uptick in power numbers across the board. The important number here, despite most posts pointing to HR (even mine) is actually SLG. Now, 27th in the majors in HR is certainly too low. But if they can get their HR total up to the middle of the pack but their SLG into the top 10 or higher while with an OBP to match, the offense will be fine for the post season.

And I'm also bullish on Devers, but wouldn't pencil him in for more than 20 in 2018. I think he's got a 30 HR a year true talent bat, but at 21 he's bound to have some struggles in the upcoming season. Even still, they got just 17 total home runs from 3B last year, and only 4 were from the opening day starter (Pablo). If they can secure 20 from the starter, some of those remaining 13 become bench production (less PAs means less total HR, of course).

That said, I'd be very disappointed if Hosmer was the lone answer. Santana would be an okay fallback, though. They both have the QO penalty attached to them, but Santana should be cheaper to sign and they are pretty similar hitters (unless you assume 2017 is Hosmer's true talent level... which would be foolish IMO).

I'd be much happier with a Martinez signing or an Abreu trade. But it's Dombrowski, so I'm bracing for something completely unexpected (like a trade for Votto or McCutchen or Ozuna or something).

 

[moondog80]

Re: Phillies above

Don't see the fit. After a complete tear down and shedding contracts, the Phillies should be looking towards the post-Harper window to compete against the Nats. Giving a 30 yo JDM a huge contract would be counter to that, even with the huge money they have to spend in the coming years. JDM is much more a final go for it piece to a team like Boston than a guy you build around for the next 5+ years IMO.

(I realize the Phillies were listed as conceivable due to financial flexibility)

If giving JD a huge deal doesn't hamstring the budget in any other way (and unless they plan on signing Harper AND Machado AND Kershaw, it probably does not), what is the downside for Philly? This is a team with the capacity for a payroll approaching 200 million, one 3.3 million contract commitment next year, and no arb guys who will make anything significant in the coming years. It's almost a Brewster's Millions situation where they couldn't spend to capacity if they tried. Why wouldn't they overpay for a guy like JD (or Darvish)? If he bombs, they can still do whatever they want in FA for the foreseeable future.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I definitely felt watching 95% of games we hit too many ground balls. Sharp contact is going to get robbed of hits more often on the ground, especially against the many quality ML infielders. So I sure hope the "launch angle revolution" is a thing as well.

 

[DanoooME]

If giving JD a huge deal doesn't hamstring the budget in any other way (and unless they plan on signing Harper AND Machado AND Kershaw, it probably does not), what is the downside for Philly? This is a team with the capacity for a payroll approaching 200 million, one 3.3 million contract commitment next year, and no arb guys who will make anything significant in the coming years. It's almost a Brewster's Millions situation where they couldn't spend to capacity if they tried. Why wouldn't they overpay for a guy like JD (or Darvish)? If he bombs, they can still do whatever they want in FA for the foreseeable future.

Because they have any potential playing position for him already filled with younger players (Altherr in LF, Williams in RF, Hoskins at 1B and no DH). It's not like they are 5 or 6 wins from competing for the division. They have to gain 15 wins just to get to .500. They aren't going to gain that with JD. What they need is pitching, so maybe if they signed Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb and Holland, that might make a little sense, but they've got virtually every spot in the lineup filled with a good young player OR a prospect they want to give a shot to. They'd be better off waiting to see what happens in the next offseason to see how competitive they are and they can always fill a hole with a midseason trade if everything does click.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

there was also a piece on mlb.com recently which pointed out that Betts had an inordinate amount of hard hit balls not fall for hits, so even if his HR totals aren't going to increase much over 2017, his SLG might..

Over his first 3 full seasons, his ISO has been .188, .216, .195. Last years big dip in slugging % is mostly a function of his batting average. I'm guessing he'll hit closer to or over .300 in 2018 and his slugging percentage will be higher regardless of whether he hits for more power or not. His walk rate went from 7.0%, 6.7% to 10.8% last year. If Betts carries that over and does hit .300, he'll be close to or better than the player he was in 2016.

Xander's issues were related to batting average too. His full year ISOs are .122, .101, .152, .130. Bradley OTOH, saw his ISO drop from .227 in 15-16 combined to .157 in 2017. That's a significant drop off. Hanley wasn't all that far off from his career ISO either.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Re: Phillies above

Don't see the fit. After a complete tear down and shedding contracts, the Phillies should be looking towards the post-Harper window to compete against the Nats. Giving a 30 yo JDM a huge contract would be counter to that, even with the huge money they have to spend in the coming years. JDM is much more a final go for it piece to a team like Boston than a guy you build around for the next 5+ years IMO.

(I realize the Phillies were listed as conceivable due to financial flexibility)

I thought the common speculation was that their plan is to wait for a couple of years and offer a mega-deal to a certain Best Player In Baseball who has ties to the Philly area?