How does Ball have only 4 votes? Are people assuming he is the second pick? Does anyone here have ball as lower than the 2nd best player in the draft?
Yes--most people think he's going to LA, not to mention that he doesn't seem like a fit here.
Those two factors plus more than a few people aren't convinced he's going to excel at the NBA level.
I don't believe in Ball at all. I would not draft him over Jackson, Tatum, Isaac for sure, I'd consider Smith, Fox too. Of course if he falls to 3 I think you can trade that pick because someone would.
DA's comments have been about Fultz being a good player but not a 'great' or 'generational' type to justify the first overall pick right? (plus they didn't like his workout).
So drafting an equal or lesser player at 3 (Jackson or Tatum) still appears to leave the Celtics short. If the window is 2020/21 let's say, why not go with a little more of a reach but guy with higher potential ceiling? My understanding is that player is Isaac. Why he got my vote.
So drafting an equal or lesser player at 3 (Jackson or Tatum) still appears to leave the Celtics short. If the window is 2020/21 let's say, why not go with a little more of a reach but guy with higher potential ceiling? My understanding is that player is Isaac. Why he got my vote.
I voted for Tatum. My backup plan would probably be Issac or Jackson.
I think Tatum is the pick based on his NBA ready offensive game and how much it could help the Celtics.
I wouldn't rule out a trade, but unless it was only the #3, I wouldn't want to move any of the other future picks (Nets/Lakers/Sac).
I think Tatum is the pick based on his NBA ready offensive game and how much it could help the Celtics.
I wouldn't rule out a trade, but unless it was only the #3, I wouldn't want to move any of the other future picks (Nets/Lakers/Sac).
Maybe this is one way of thinking about this. With Fultz, you know what you're going to get. He's got no apparent weaknesses but then again, how much room is there to grow? With Jackson, if he develops a jump shot, he's going to be special. And if Tatum turns out to be more athletic than people think, he's going to be special as well.
Sure Isaac might have the highest potential but he's also the farthest away from reaching and may never get close.
I have no clue who I would take. I'm just hoping that all of the work the Cs have put in on this draft pays off.
That's, beyond "way short."
Jaylen
Whoever we take at 3
Brooklyn 2018
Lakers 2018/Kings 2019
Clippers and Memphis pick
And that probably isn't enough.
I think there's some question about how he will fare defensively against athletic guards. His jump shot is also pretty ugly (though he seems to be pretty accurate). Makes you wonder how parts of his game will translate against higher end competition. All this aside, I still expect him to be the 2nd pick. He has exceptional court vision.
As for #3 give me Tatum. Ainge doesn't seem to think there is a transformative player in this draft, so give me the high floor, dependable scorer in Tatum.
For what it's worth, this is unquestionably true. But what it actually means is that they're trying to collect the sorts of assets that they'll need to get Davis if -- and it' a huge if -- he becomes available in a couple of years.
I voted Tatum, with Fox or Isaac as fallback.
That's partly a reflection of the fact that I think he goes to LAL at #2. It is also partly that I find him hard to get a read on. If Danny ends up drafting him, I don't think I'd be inclined to second guess him.
I'm sure they are trying to get him now---and, I agree with your implicit comment that they will not succeed in that effort this year absent some really surprising unknown fact (Brow has told them he wants out now and will go public post-draft is only one I can imagine).
I think many around here will flip if Ainge effectively kicks the asset can down the road a year or two, but I'm not sure that's the wrong decision.
It might be sacrilege but I get a Paul Pierce Vibe from Jayson Tatum. Both guys had great offensive games coming out of college. Both had some questions regarding not being GREAT (as opposed to adequate) athletes. Both came from big successful programs.
I've watched at least 5 minutes of youtube video on Tatum and Jackson.
It's quite clear that Tatum is the guy we should take.
It's quite clear that Tatum is the guy we should take.
I see your five and raise you two more: Tatum is absolutely the guy. Plus, Chris Mannix said so on T&R this morning so we should go ahead and buy a jersey.
Ainge has done a masterful job making people talk about the Celtics. They might have edged into second place locally over the past year and I would have bet on them being 4th in perpetuity after the B's last cup run.
This might be your impression, but unless you view him strictly as a 5 (which you shouldn't), it's not really backed up by stats or scouting reports. He has a good rebounding rate, with numbers similar to what KAT and Noel did as freshman, and a decent block rate for a guy who defended the perimeter as often as he did in college.
From a big board that came out today from one of the more thorough guys out there: "Will fight to deny the ball and shows toughness and physicality for his slightness of frame. Plays bigger than his size in being wiling to mix it up down low, boding well for his ability to play down positions. Plays with active feet off ball. Rangiest off ball big defender in the class (very close with Jordan Bell) who can cover ground quickly. Excellent weak side rim protection instincts, as well as the verticality to protect at times from a stand-still. Gets run through with his frame in the latter situations but with strength acquisition has the skill base to play the five."
Here's another, more in-depth, piece about Isaac that provides more context: "Isaac uses that same length and positioning to rebound at an excellent rate for a power forward, or even a center. When you consider team context at Florida State, Isaac’s numbers only become more impressive.", though he goes on, "The biggest flaw in Isaac’s interior defensive profile is his skinniness. There have been really successful skinny big man defenders (cough Nerlens Noel cough), but Isaac’s frame is still an issue. At this stage, he is simply not equipped to guard the NBA’s true power players. The good news is all that really does is prevent him from playing Center, because aside from Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, and maybe a few others, there aren’t many offensively dominant “power” 4’s."
I'm by no means sold on Isaac, but I think your characterization of him is off. I view him as a wing prospect who can hopefully bulk up with an NBA training program and give some minutes at small-ball 5 line-ups.
I'm pretty surprised that Tatum is running away with this. Maybe it's the Pierce comp, which I think is decent, though I do think young Pierce was more explosive. I've also seen Danny Granger, Rudy Gay and Harrison Barnes as comps. The dude's going to be able to score in the NBA, I just worry about what else he'll bring to the table, so I think his upside is a bit more limited than Isaac or Jackson. But there's not a ton separating these three for me.
I don't think DA's comments have been that direct. He talked about Fultz fitting what Philly is trying to do while the Celtics would have gone a different direction at #1, which they expect to still be available to them at #3 with an additional asset. The rest has been inference.
My read is that Ainge is targeting Jackson. This weekend Jackson moved up to #1 on at least one mock, and there were comments from I believe another GM predicting Ainge would end up leaving the draft with Jackson. That selection intuitively feels right to me, as Jackson fits one of Ainge's types. Now there's a danger in discussing Drafter Danny as he has a big enough body of work that there is seemingly an exception to every rule, but generally DA seems to fall for:
1) explosive 1's -- there is a reason he loved Marcus Banks, which explains why he passed on the opportunity to select Markelle Fultz who has been characterized as having good but not elite athleticism.
2) aggressive 2/3's -- physical defense is required with the notion that shooting can be developed, on both targets like Justise Winslow and picks such as Tony Allen and Marcus Smart.
3) skilled 4/5's -- a feel for the game is the goal with the notion that bad bodies can be improved, on both targets like Robert Swift and selections including Jared Sullinger and Al Jefferson.
4) undersized 4's (particularly in the scone round) -- Ainge has uncovered a number of useful players in the second round who play a 4's game despite a 3's height (Hunter, Gomes, Powe, Davis, etc.).
We know that Ainge has employed Jon Niednagel brain-typing in the past to see how a guy is wired, incorporated analytics, and scouted prospects for years so as not to place too much emphasis on performance in a given college system (Rondo, Bradley, etc.) or workout. It seems to me that Ainge got the #1 pick, reached a consensus that Fultz and Ball were poor fits, felt confident that Jackson would be there at #3, and decided to trade down for an additional asset. The only risk becomes if Phoenix covets Jackson enough to trade up to #2 to grab him and if Magic feels confident enough that we would pass on Ball to drop back to #4 and collect an additional asset as well.
Ainge must somehow know that Magic is taking Ball, otherwise they could wait until the draft to finalize the deal. Celtics draft Fultz and then if Danny's choice is there at 3, they do the deal.
Thank you. I've been doing the same and agree - more like 10 minutes though
Jackson has some more powerful dunks in his highlight reel, but that's about it. Tatum is clearly the better pick IMO.
Scalabrine thinks they want Jackson--he said this morning, his biggest fear now is that LAL take him at #2.Thank you. I've been doing the same and agree - more like 10 minutes though
This game is silly. In fact there are seemingly equal numbers of counterexamples to examples. Furthermore we really don't know whether he thinks in terms of 'types' or whether he just goes for the best player.
For example, explosive 1's? Marcus Banks, Rajon Rondo. But we also have Delonte West, Orien Greene, Marcus Smart. We also know he tried to trade for Chris Paul in the way back.
We are good at finding patterns often where there is none. I think that is one of those cases.
To me, the clearer pattern is that Ainge tends to zig when people think he is going to zag. There have been very very few times I can where he selected someone everyone thought he liked.
I'm now potentially getting converted to Isaac, but either way there are 3 guys I'm OK with in this order.
#1 Tatum
#2 Isaac
#3 Jackson
I'm coming into the camp that thinks Isaac has the highest ceiling. 6-11 with a 7-1 wingspan, should be able to shoot, quick enough to defend many 1-2 guards but length to bother anybody. He is really intriguing and doesn't seem terribly risky or raw either (though still needs more development than the other two). Tatum meets more of the offensive needs. Initially Jackson was my guy but his lack of a ready-made shot knock him down a peg (with other deductions for his lack of interest in working out for the Celtics). Still he's pretty much ready to guard anyone on the wings so his floor isn't too bad.
#1 Tatum
#2 Isaac
#3 Jackson
I'm coming into the camp that thinks Isaac has the highest ceiling. 6-11 with a 7-1 wingspan, should be able to shoot, quick enough to defend many 1-2 guards but length to bother anybody. He is really intriguing and doesn't seem terribly risky or raw either (though still needs more development than the other two). Tatum meets more of the offensive needs. Initially Jackson was my guy but his lack of a ready-made shot knock him down a peg (with other deductions for his lack of interest in working out for the Celtics). Still he's pretty much ready to guard anyone on the wings so his floor isn't too bad.
If it's a "surprise" pick it might be Smith l wouldn't be surprised if he goes top 5, just an elite freakish athlete who was held back by bad teammates and coaching. Defense including effort is a concern but some GM probably sees Westbrook when he looks at Smith
I have a feeling Smith could be that guy too, if not for the depth of guards on the roster and the need for wings and, potential, a big. Tatum, Issac, Smith is what I guess.
I think it was Kevin Pelton I listened to on a podcast earlier today talking about Fultz drifting away from plays and not giving the effort Ainge wants to see. Smith was somewhat similar this past year as well.
I'd go for Tatum (the Pierce skillz comparisons fit) over Jackson (he's like an undersized Pippen -- one single injury and his prime is over), but I think Ainge traded down from #1, not to trade down but to trade out.
Trade #3:
Trade #3:
- to Phoenix for #4 the privilege of picking Ball (if the Lakers go for Jackson), or
- to Sacramento for #5 and #10, or
- to NY in a package deal for Merry Kristaps, or
- to CHI in a package deal for Jimmy Butler, or
- to IND in a smaller rental for Paul George.
In terms of the Bird Magic rivalry, I hope Magic is a terrible executive and Ball is a Ryan Leaf level bust. I am still annoyed at Magic for all that good will Celtics fans threw his way in the 90s since it was given with the understanding he would die soon.
If Suns are taking Fox like some suggest, that would leave the Kings with Dennis Smith or Nitilikina. That would also mean one of Tatum or Jackson is sliding to 6. I doubt that is the case, but if Orlando did end up with Jackson... every one of their games would seem like a Shawn Marion shooting fundamentals video.
The Suns are taking Jackson or Tatum, maybe Ball if he inexplicably falls there. Sacramento is zeroed in on Fox and he'll be there at #5.
I agree but I've seen more than one national publication project Fox at 4. One has since moved him back to 5. I don't know if Chad Ford has done a mock sense. I think a lot of the movement in mock drafts is for click bait anyway but I can't see the Suns passing on Jackson if he's there. I honestly wonder if the Celtics will pass on Lonzo Ball if he is there.
These publications throw shit together for clicks....they know nothing more than many on this board. Unless something really weird happens I'd imagine Fox is pretty much locked in at 5 going to the Kings. I also feel there is zero chance of Ainge drafting Ball. He's such an awful fit in Boston in a number of ways. For starters he's your 5th guard next year. More importantly is that he isn't a combo guard which Ainge covets but a pure 1 who has the ball in his hands so he affects our versatility moving forward.
I guess if Ball is there, they would look to trade down again. Seems like someone would want to move up to 3 to take Ball. Although If Danny really does have a target in mind though, no way he trades down much further than 5 and we already know 5 and 10 aren't in play. 3 for 5 and a right to swap picks in 2018. If only.