Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Dec 10, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
That should probably put the kibosh on any thoughts of JBJ for Schwarber at least.

Of course it shouldn't.

EDIT--that's nothing more than typical GM speak

BigPapiMPD34 · Dec 10, 2017

Anyone else here at the Winter Meetings? Trying to figure out what the best events are to attend and where all the action is. Seems like nothing going on yet other than media gathered in the hotel lobby. (Sorry if this isn't the right place to post this).

E5 Yaz · Dec 10, 2017

BigPapiMPD34 said:
Anyone else here at the Winter Meetings? Trying to figure out what the best events are to attend and where all the action is. Seems like nothing going on yet other than media gathered in the hotel lobby. (Sorry if this isn't the right place to post this).

Hotel lobbies and bars. You'll get more listening in one the media after their work hours then you will trying to chase down GMs and agents

DeadlySplitter · Dec 10, 2017

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 58m58 minutes ago

Indians and Red Sox are among teams talking to Carlos Santana

BestGameEvah · Dec 11, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
We're finally at the Winter Meetings and Dombrowski is almost certainly fixin' to wheel and deal a bit. The Sox need a big bat first and foremost, so expect to hear plenty of rumors about J.D. Martinez and a number of potential trades. First one I've seen is that the Sox are looking at Kyle Schwarber.

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-red-sox-showing-interest-165757606.html

Of course, they also have a quote from Theo that puts a bit of a damper on the idea.

That should probably put the kibosh on any thoughts of JBJ for Schwarber at least.

It's NOT JBJ the Cubs are interested in.
It's Benny!
Schwarber training hard!

MRBOSTONSPORTS · Dec 11, 2017

BestGameEvah said:
It's NOT JBJ the Cubs are interested in.
It's Benny!
Schwarber training hard!

Reminds me of Big Panda working out last year. I will pass. The guy hit what .240?
No way do I trade one of the B's for him.

chawson · Dec 11, 2017

MRBOSTONSPORTS said:
Reminds me of Big Panda working out last year. I will pass. The guy hit what .240?
No way do I trade one of the B's for him.

Who’s “Big Panda,” MRBOSTONSPORTS?

BaseballJones · Dec 11, 2017

Mildly intersted in Schwarber. Solid last four months of the season (22 hr, .244/.336/.557/.893 in June-Sept). Big lefty bat, terrific power. Would not be a bad guy to get for DH but I don't want to spend much to get him.

I really expect something from DD that surprises many of us. He is a definite go-getter. Knows what he wants and then goes after it. I'm really interested to see what that happens to be this offseason.

Green Monster · Dec 11, 2017

Bradley on the Block

moondog80 · Dec 11, 2017

The move would be Benintendi to CF and not Betts in CF/Benny in RF?

Either way, this means hello to Martinez. There will be a drop in defense, but because of Fenway it won't be as much for the Sox as it would for other teams, so there is an efficiency there. Part of Benny's usefullness was being wasted in LF.

EDIT: Or, I suppose, hello to Schwarber.

Murderer's Crow · Dec 11, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
If Theo would swap Schwarber for JBJ straight up, I'd make that deal. Not sure he would, given the rumors that he's sniffing around for Benintendi. The more interesting question for me is what would the Cubs have to add to Schwarber to make a trade for Benintendi palatable? I can't think of one player who makes it work for me. At least, not one who is realistic.

Maybe something like Schwarber and Ian Happ gets it close, but I'd like to see a bit more coming back. Perhaps Dombrowski could pry Victor Caratini loose if he added Swihart in? Theo drafted Swihart and might be willing to bet on the athleticism and his brief bounce back in Dominican fall ball. Might be too convoluted, but Theo always did love his complicated offers.

That would be really intriguing but I'd be curious to understand why DD might think Schwarber is more attractive than spending on free agents who offer similar power and would also be DH types. Is Schwarber for JBJ or Ben going to offer more production than Ben/JBJ + a DH type with pop (e.g. LoMo, Frazier)?

Murderer's Crow · Dec 11, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
I guess it depends on if this is in place of signing Martinez or in addition to. Just looking at best case scenario for the Sox (lesser player moved):

JBJ (maybe with a B- or C+ prospect if Theo isn't that high on JBJ) for Schwarber, then sign Martinez and you get a lineup of...

Betts (RF), Benintendi (CF), Martinez (LF), Schwarber (1B/DH), Hanley (1B/DH), Devers (3B), Bogaerts (SS), Pedroia (2B), Vazquez(C.).

I think that's probably good enough to compete for the division.

It would be but going the extra mile for Abreu is probably the safer and better route, IMO. If Schwarb costs a premier young kid, then why not pull Abreu for a slightly better package.

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 11, 2017

moondog80 said:
The move would be Benintendi to CF and not Betts in CF/Benny in RF?

Betts has the better arm of the two (though Beni's isn't bad), and in Fenway RF requires about as much range as CF. Besides, Betts has gotten comfortable in Fenway RF and is playing it as well as it's ever been played. If it ain't broke, etc.

crow216 said:
That would be really intriguing but I'd be curious to understand why DD might think Schwarber is more attractive than spending on free agents who offer similar power and would also be DH types. Is Schwarber for JBJ or Ben going to offer more production than Ben/JBJ + a DH type with pop (e.g. LoMo, Frazier)?

LoMo (.188 career ISO, .433 career SLG) and Frazier (.213/.459) do not quite offer "similar power" to Schwarber (.249/.479). Not to mention that Schwarber, still a few months shy of age 25, could have some further power upside, while LoMo and Frazier at past 30 are likely to trend downward if anything.

That doesn't answer the question of whether it's better to get Schwarber's power on the FA market instead of giving up talent for it, but as Snod points out, that's not necessarily an either/or.

BaseballJones · Dec 11, 2017

They could deal JBJ for Schwarber, sign Martinez, then trade Hanley, a prospect, and eat a lot of Hanley's $$ for a 1b like, say, Cabrera.

Holy crap.

RF Betts (25-30 hr)
CF Benintendi (20-25 hr)
1b Cabrera (25-35 hr)
LF Martinez (35 hr)
DH Schwarber (30-35 hr)
SS Bogaerts (10-15 hr?)
3b Devers (15-20 hr)
C Vazquez (5-10 hr)
2b fill in / Pedroia

That improves the team's power output considerably. Also...uh....costs a fortune but hey, so what!?

moondog80 · Dec 11, 2017

BaseballJones said:
They could deal JBJ for Schwarber, sign Martinez, then trade Hanley, a prospect, and eat a lot of Hanley's $$ for a 1b like, say, Cabrera.

Holy crap.

RF Betts (25-30 hr)
CF Benintendi (20-25 hr)
1b Cabrera (25-35 hr)
LF Martinez (35 hr)
DH Schwarber (30-35 hr)
SS Bogaerts (10-15 hr?)
3b Devers (15-20 hr)
C Vazquez (5-10 hr)
2b fill in / Pedroia

That improves the team's power output considerably. Also...uh....costs a fortune but hey, so what!?

You had me until eating Hanley's $$ AND taking on Cabrera's contract. But I'm in on JD and Schwarber.

simplicio · Dec 11, 2017

moondog80 said:
You had me until eating Hanley's $$ AND taking on Cabrera's contract. But I'm in on JD and Schwarber.

Yeah, if you call Detroit and say Hanley for Miggy straight up, what happens?

Not sure I'd want that though, I'd rather muddle through the rest of Hanley's deal without taking on more dead weight.

RedOctober3829 · Dec 11, 2017

BaseballJones said:
They could deal JBJ for Schwarber, sign Martinez, then trade Hanley, a prospect, and eat a lot of Hanley's $$ for a 1b like, say, Cabrera.

Holy crap.

RF Betts (25-30 hr)
CF Benintendi (20-25 hr)
1b Cabrera (25-35 hr)
LF Martinez (35 hr)
DH Schwarber (30-35 hr)
SS Bogaerts (10-15 hr?)
3b Devers (15-20 hr)
C Vazquez (5-10 hr)
2b fill in / Pedroia

That improves the team's power output considerably. Also...uh....costs a fortune but hey, so what!?

The Red Sox would owe Cabrera $190 million over the next 7 seasons if they took on all his money. They sure as hell wouldn't be eating Hanley's money in that deal as well. The prospect of paying Cabrera $30-$32 million a year for the rest of his 30's is scary.

moondog80 · Dec 11, 2017

simplicio said:
Yeah, if you call Detroit and say Hanley for Miggy straight up, what happens?

Dombrowski gets fired.

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 11, 2017

RedOctober3829 said:
The Red Sox would owe Cabrera $190 million over the next 7 seasons if they took on all his money. They sure as hell wouldn't be eating Hanley's money in that deal as well. The prospect of paying Cabrera $30-$32 million a year for the rest of his 30's is scary.

And totally unnecessary. It's not a given that Cabrera will be a better player than Hanley for the next two years, for one thing. Likely, perhaps, but not a given. They were essentially identical in value this past year. And then there's the rest of Cabrera's contract to worry about. Hanley for Miggy one-up is arguably a bad trade for the Sox, never mind throwing a prospect in.

tl/dr: post #23.

RedOctober3829 · Dec 11, 2017

Mets are making Matt Harvey available for a reliever. Harvey is entering the final year of arb and will be a FA. So is Joe Kelly. Would anyone do a Kelly-for-Harvey swap?

Papelbon's Poutine · Dec 11, 2017

RedOctober3829 said:
Mets are making Matt Harvey available for a reliever. Harvey is entering the final year of arb and will be a FA. So is Joe Kelly. Would anyone do a Kelly-for-Harvey swap?

In a cocaine heartbeat.

DeadlySplitter · Dec 11, 2017

Rasputin · Dec 11, 2017

There are free agents available that fit our needs. Fuck trades.

MikeM · Dec 11, 2017

RedOctober3829 said:
Mets are making Matt Harvey available for a reliever. Harvey is entering the final year of arb and will be a FA. So is Joe Kelly. Would anyone do a Kelly-for-Harvey swap?

Was speculating that myself last night. I wouldn't be shocked in the least to see Kelly dealt this week/winter (we have limited trade pieces and Kelly is a decent upside play for a team not looking to spend big in FA), but wasn't 100% sold on Harvey as the guy you do that one on. Who really looked to be a serious non-tender consideration before the Mets picked that up.

A convincing argument on the bounce back potential from his recent complete suck might sway me though.

Tyrone Biggums · Dec 11, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
His return from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery (removing the top rib on that side) did not go well.

6.70 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 5.39 xFIP, a 6.51 K/9, and a 4.56 BB/9. He was awful. There's a reason they'll give him up for a reliever. He might be fully cooked.

Recovery from this surgery has very little track record (it's what Thornburg had, btw) and even after surgery, sometimes patients have no relief of their symptoms.

I'm not high on Kelly, but I want nothing to do with burning a roster spot on Matt Harvey.

I'd deal Barnes for him easy. Harvey's return as you mentioned didn't go well. However, he's still got a ton of talent and in the walk year of his deal. If they're only asking for a RP for Matz Wheeler or Harvey then pull the trigger. Would love to see Barnes off this team.

As for trading JBJ. If you're doing that you might as well trade him for some good prospects then sign a guy like Austin Jackson, Maybin or move Benny to CF and sign a corner outfielder in free agency not named JD. He's going to cost way too much money and too much term on that contract.

Green Monster · Dec 11, 2017

Proceed with caution on Harvey........First Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and the a stress fracture in his shoulder..........seems like major injury risk.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/07/08/new-york-mets-matt-harvey-season-ending-surgery-injury

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/6/16/15815844/matt-harvey-injury-mets-broken-bone

Murderer's Crow · Dec 11, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
His return from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery (removing the top rib on that side) did not go well.

6.70 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 5.39 xFIP, a 6.51 K/9, and a 4.56 BB/9. He was awful. There's a reason they'll give him up for a reliever. He might be fully cooked.

Recovery from this surgery has very little track record (it's what Thornburg had, btw) and even after surgery, sometimes patients have no relief of their symptoms.

I'm not high on Kelly, but I want nothing to do with burning a roster spot on Matt Harvey.

I agree with this but Harvey didn't show signs of problems stemming from his injury. All of his stuff was there. There is at least a non-zero chance that his problems stemmed from clubhouse issues and mechanical problems that couldn't be fixed by a piss-poor Mets coaching staff.

chawson · Dec 11, 2017

Kelly had a .222 wOBA against RHH last year, which is elite and better than Kahnle and Robertson. He’s not cheap in his final year of arb, but he’s a true weapon in the bullpen.

budcrew08 · Dec 11, 2017

JBJ on the trade block?

chawson · Dec 11, 2017

I think JBJ is as good as gone.

There are reports the Royals are interested, though the options there aren't super enticing. Duffy is an interesting pitcher, though RHH crush him. Scott Alexander had an elite GB% last year and is under five years control. So is Merrifield, who'd be a fine super sub though doubtful he's as good as last year.

If DD trades JBJ for Herrera or Soria I'm becoming a Padres fan.

KarlHungus · Dec 11, 2017

Is there a fit here with the Padres for Wil Myers? Could slot in at either first base or left field, still young (26) with power.

MRBOSTONSPORTS · Dec 11, 2017

chawson said:
I think JBJ is as good as gone.

There are reports the Royals are interested, though the options there aren't super enticing. Duffy is an interesting pitcher, though RHH crush him. Scott Alexander had an elite GB% last year and is under five years control. So is Merrifield, who'd be a fine super sub though doubtful he's as good as last year.

If DD trades JBJ for Herrera or Soria I'm becoming a Padres fan.

Red Sox should not trade JBJ. Jackie Bradley is the best centerfielder I ever saw, plus isn't his War really high because of his defense?

Hank Scorpio · Dec 11, 2017

I’m not understanding in what world is JBJ for Abreu an overpay, but JBJ for Schwarber “intriguing”.

Yes, Schwarber is young and has power, but that aside, he sucks. A lot.

chawson · Dec 11, 2017

KarlHungus said:
Is there a fit here with the Padres for Wil Myers? Could slot in at either first base or left field, still young (26) with power.

There shouldn't be. Not with as many first basemen available for as few teams looking.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/the-sox-and-the-first-base-market.21751/

Murderer's Crow · Dec 11, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
What indications did you see that his stuff was back?

Strikeout rate was down and in addition to that....

Velocity was down:

For vertical movement his slider, curve and changeup all moved toward zero. Likely a result of being thrown softer:

And his slider lost horizontal movement:

You just posted a bunch of charts that show there wasn't much of a change from his career norms. And Yes, some slight downtick in velo but not a fall to 91mph from 96. His avg velo was in the 94-95 range.

My overall point on Harvey was in agreement with you, he's not very good and there's a ton of risk. However, there were still some signs that he's not a lost cause paired up with playing for one of the worst orgs in baseball.

Red(s)HawksFan · Dec 11, 2017

KarlHungus said:
Is there a fit here with the Padres for Wil Myers? Could slot in at either first base or left field, still young (26) with power.

Why are the Padres going to trade Wil Myers? Like you say he's young. He's signed long term (through 2022 with a club option for 2023). Seems to me they like the guy and they're in no danger of payroll getting unwieldy.

BaseballJones · Dec 11, 2017

MRBOSTONSPORTS said:
Red Sox should not trade JBJ. Jackie Bradley is the best centerfielder I ever saw, plus isn't his War really high because of his defense?

At some point the Sox' kids are going to cost a lot of money. JBJ is probably less valuable than Betts, Benintendi, and maybe even Bogaerts. So given the cost of Price and, likely, a re-signed Sale, SOMEONE has to go. Especially if they're going to take on another huge contract or two.

I think that's the thinking anyway.

Rasputin · Dec 11, 2017

BaseballJones said:
At some point the Sox' kids are going to cost a lot of money. JBJ is probably less valuable than Betts, Benintendi, and maybe even Bogaerts. So given the cost of Price and, likely, a re-signed Sale, SOMEONE has to go. Especially if they're going to take on another huge contract or two.

I think that's the thinking anyway.

I'm sure it is, and the counter-thinking is that Bradley is still pretty cheap and under control through 2020 so the time to move him is either later or when there's someone who makes the team better given all the other variables.

chawson · Dec 11, 2017

BaseballJones said:
At some point the Sox' kids are going to cost a lot of money. JBJ is probably less valuable than Betts, Benintendi, and maybe even Bogaerts. So given the cost of Price and, likely, a re-signed Sale, SOMEONE has to go. Especially if they're going to take on another huge contract or two.

I think that's the thinking anyway.

The question with Benintendi is whether he'll hit at Fenway. He threw up a very pedestrian .258/.329/.382 line at home last year, good for an 80 wRC+. It was his first year and he gets a pass, but that's one of the worst home marks in all of baseball.

Of course, Bradley was even worse at Fenway last year, but was exceptional the two years prior.

MikeM · Dec 11, 2017

I'm not sold at this point that Chicago actually goes in on a Bradley for Schwarber trade.

Considering the black hole'ish level of potential suck we could see in the bottom half of our lineup as constructed (even after we acquire whatever 1B/DH to upgrade the 4 hole), I wouldn't be completely shocked to see Bradley moved very early for the best prospect package DD can find though. Given if he has no real interest in gambling on a JBJ rebound anyway it might be easier to execute an overall plan of attack with more trade pieces already in hand and asap.

BaseballJones · Dec 11, 2017

Rasputin said:
I'm sure it is, and the counter-thinking is that Bradley is still pretty cheap and under control through 2020 so the time to move him is either later or when there's someone who makes the team better given all the other variables.

As always...depends on what you can get for him. That same contract situation that makes him really valuable now to the Sox ALSO makes him really valuable to someone else.

koufax37 · Dec 11, 2017

Bradley+ for Abreu, sign Martinez and we have added a lot more RH Power than the MFYs.

The interesting thing is going to be how aggressively we go after RH relievers with the idea of neutralizing the Stanton/Judge/Sanchez core. Someone threw out Addison Reed's numbers against Stanton (which while SSS are impressive), and I think understanding the type of pitches/pitchers that the Twin Towers are likely to struggle against and making sure you have them in your bullpen in October is key. Not quite the ROOGY thing but getting close. I'm curious how each will perform against a healthy Carson Smith.

Like A-Rod before them, Stanton and Judge both punish mistakes from average pitchers all through the summer, but I think are less likely than a Bregman to take Sale/Sale/Jansen/Kershaw deep in the same post season, and I am sure MLB team analytics departments have a much deeper understanding of which batters succeed on good pitches vs feast on mistakes (both valuable skills, but with different applications). But circling back to the thread subject, I hope that the Red Sox are putting some aggressive analysis into bullpen construction to combat the Yankess RHB Power Trio that we will be facing for the next five years (possibly 10) in between Stanton DL stints.

Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation

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